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Hearing Cancelled. With the judge signing off early on the debtor's extension for an exclusive POR, I guess there wasn't much of a need.
Well I tried to hit the ask for 10000 but they only gave me 100...
Watsa's record speaks for itself. As a debt holder and the largest equity holder, he knows the dynamics better than anyone. Based on the value of the tax attributes, I think he'll sit tight for a few years on his equity position.
A market cap of $7.7 million really is quite silly here. This phantom short position...not so silly and truly testing my nerve. Patience is the key with the Q's, and especially this one. The credit crisis has provided some amazing opportunities.
Docket 796 8/3/2009 Order Extending the Debtors Exclusive Periods to File a Chapter 11 Plan and Disclosure Statement and Solicit Acceptances Thereto(Related Doc # [658]) Order Signed on 8/3/2009. (LMD) Debtor: AbitibiBowater Inc.
Related: 658
The extension through December 14 has been signed by the judge
Docket updates: No objections to extension requests
Next week's hearing should be smooth sailing
778 7/31/2009 Certificate of No Objection Re: Motion to Extend Exclusivity Period for Filing a Chapter 11 Plan and Disclosure Statement and Solicit Acceptances Thereto (related document(s)[658]) Filed by AbitibiBowater Inc.. (Greecher, Sean) Debtor: AbitibiBowater Inc.
Related: 658
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777 7/31/2009 Certificate of No Objection Re: Motion to Extend Deadline to Assume or Reject Unexpired Leases of Nonresidential Real Property (related document(s)[654]) Filed by AbitibiBowater Inc.. (Greecher, Sean) Debtor: AbitibiBowater Inc.
Related: 654
Yes, this looks like a good day to add as shares are available. Other days, trying to add 60K results in a 100 share partial, a B/A uptick, and a long wait.
They wouldn't fill me at .13 so I lowered to .125 and got filled on 45000. .125 bid for the remainder still not reflected.
Edit: Got the rest
They're ignoring my bid at .13 and painting down to .125
Even if the crackdown on NSS doesn't impact the pinks, money should flow this way after what has happened in other Q's this week. Those holding short positions know that people will be looking for Q's that haven't yet seen their big run.
To any fresh eyes on the board, look at the financial footnotes for the 2008 annual report and realize the billions here in tax credits going forward, all of which are only realized if the commons survive, which they should considering 80% is held by the top 3 shareholders and insiders.
"At December 31, 2008, we had U.S. federal and state net operating loss carryforwards of $793 million and $1,076 million, respectively, and Canadian federal and provincial net operating loss carryforwards of $678 million and $783 million, respectively. In addition, $305 million of Canadian investment tax credit and expense carryforwards and $82 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards were available to reduce future income taxes. The U.S. federal and state loss carryforwards expire at various dates up to 2028. The Canadian non-capital loss and investment tax credit carryforwards expire at various dates between 2009 and 2028. Of the U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $79 million consists of alternative minimum tax credits that have no expiration."
Not to compare apples to oranges, but these tax attributes are far greater than those that were a catalyst in the CEMJQ run, with multiple assets also for sale here.
3.5 million short out of roughly 10 million in the trading float? Let's get this squeeze started!
Yes, the Q's look to be heating up again.
Spansion 2Q Rev $376MLast update: 7/28/2009 4:14:11 PM
Cash position up $125 million over Q1
Link to Update:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spansion-Provides-Business-prnews-753791626.html?x=0&.v=1
250000 just went through as a T-trade as well
ABWTQ- no 100 share partials holding it back and moving easily on light volume. They may finally let this one go.
What happened to the incessant 100 share fills taking this one down? Trading is much better here today.
Yes, it would be nice to see some buying pressure at the open to initiate the squeeze.
Regarding ABWTQ:
There was a late volume spike that could be related to news that the SEC is taking a tougher stance on naked short-selling. 3.5 million short, many of which look to be phantom shares.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/27/business/main5191803.shtml
SEC Rule on 'naked' short-selling now permanent:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/27/business/main5191803.shtml
Maybe the T-trade after hours was the start of some short covering.
Cdn Hydro Tgt Raised To C$6.10 From C$5.10 By Cormark >KHD.T
This just came across on my streaming news. The demand for hydro assets in Canada is quite strong.
Ha, ha, too funny. I think they thought you were discussing an OT stock KPMG on the board.
As far as I know, the suit is ongoing. Chanos has been much more quiet in 2009 than he was in 2008, when he was a regular in speaking engagements, practically bragging about his short positions. Strangely enough, Fairfax Financial's accounting recently was investigated and found clean by the SEC (accounting practices were one thing that the unfavorable analyst report honed in on). It truly looks like an attempted bear raid by several hedge funds on Fairfax Financial occurred. Watsa is known as the man who beat the shorts through delivering sound performance at Fairfax.
From what I've read, his integrity is second to none. Chanos...not so much. Google V Prem Watsa and you'll find plenty of info on his humble roots and impressive investment performance. As the largest shareholder at 41+% of commons & a small amount of debentures, as well as a DIP lender, he's in it for the long haul...and would quite possibly be willing to commit more funds to see this one through. Maybe I'm overanalyzing but I don't think he'll let this investment fail, if not for financial reasons but personal reasons.
People need to realize that after a couple of small asset sales/favorable rulings/legislation, we have a solvent company doing $6+ billion in revenues per year currently trading at a market cap of under $7 million dollars. Notice the notes to financials in the Q1 report- it appears the Manicouagan Hydro facility is nearly a done deal. Multiple assets that have been written down to zero are also for sale. Granted, the industry is in bad shape- but do we really think the Canadian govt is going to stand by and watch so many jobs vanish without providing some subsidies in an attempt to help revive the sector? It reminds me a little of the financial sector 4-5 months ago. How much worse can it get?
Watsa is well aware of the $3.7 billion worth of NOL carry forwards and tax credit carry forwards in the US and Canada to offset future income once ABWTQ returns to profitability. If ABWTQ's 5%+ shareholders are willing to sit tight for several years, they make a killing. Regarding the NOL's, 50%+ ownership change in the commons is the major concern when trying to preserve NOL carryforwards under section 382. How much ownership transfer is likely to occur when 80% of shares are held between 2-3 parties and insiders? Remember that the largest shareholder, Fairfax Financial, is also the DIP lender? Am I missing something here? Many bond holders already made a killing on CDS when ABWTQ filed Chapter 11 so, IMO, the debtors plan of reorganization is likely to face little creditor opposition, provided progress is being made on an operational basis and on the asset sale front.
Due to the complexity of the case, with multiple subsidiaries as well as operations in multiple countries, the extension request will be granted. Once this is taken care of, I think we'll start to see some progress.
My broker told me the exact same thing about pinks when I asked him how it was my bid could just not be shown. Then, he proceeded to say he could call down to another department to see if they could check on it. My bid showed immediately and I was filled for 100 shares. Good times.
Samsung Electronics Posts Unexpected Profit Increase
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaYjTnVDNvVQ
How coincidental is this?
V Prem Watsa, largest shareholder of ABWTQ & CEO of the DIP lender Fairfax Financial, mentored by the father of well-known anti-naked short crusader Patrick Byrne and 10% holder in Byrne's oft naked shorted Overstock.com, is currently involved in a suit against hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, among others. Chanos was tipped off by an analyst about a negative report that was not yet public and took a large short position in Fairfax Financial.
Also of coincidence, Chanos, best known for shorting stocks, acknowledged in 2008 that he was shorting Canadian timber/paper companies. Is this ABWTQ short position supposed to be a slap in the face to Watsa? Based on Watsa's incredible investment performance, I can't think of too many that would really want to bet against him.
Watsa, known as Canada's Warren Buffett, had a Forbes article written about him being the "man who beat the shorts". It sure would be nice if he'd prove this true again with ABWTQ.
Is this some sort of coordinated pump with you guys posting OT stuff on this board? Otherwise, why would you bring it here?
I'm pounding the table here, as Monk would say.
The value of these NOL carryforwards is huge and is something that is not reflected by the balance sheet. Remember, their value can only be maximized if very little ownership change occurs. Meaning, commons survive without dilution. The accountants have been working on it but that may be all we see in this case. CEMJQ has less than half this in NOL carryforwards with almost five times as many shares, yet this was a major catalyst in the run there because court documents showed the firm was trying to prevent a sizeable ownership change. Because ABWTQ shares are so tightly held by so few parties, there really isn't a need to publicly initiate the process of monitoring ownership change at this time. Official documents doing so would result in an increased share price, which the heavy hitters clearly don't want to see happen as evidenced by the 3.5 million short position on roughly 10 million max tradeable float.
The shareholder deficit is the major reason, aside from naked shorting & manipulation, this is trading so low. The deficit is erased if the targeted $750 million in asset sales occurs. Also, don't forget about the possible $300 million from the illegal expropriation of the Grand Fills hydro assets.
Hydro power facilities are in high demand right now with bidding wars occurring for hydro assets of other firms in Canada. It's just a matter of time before people realize what's going on here.
And this is the last time I'll ever reply to myself...I promise!
As of at December 31, 2008, we had U.S. federal and state net operating loss carryforwards of $793 million and $1,076 million, respectively, and Canadian federal and provincial net operating loss carryforwards of $678 million and $783 million, respectively. In addition, $305 million of Canadian investment tax credit and expense carryforwards and $82 million of U.S. tax credit carryforwards were available to reduce future income taxes. The U.S. federal and state loss carryforwards expire at various dates up to 2028. The Canadian non-capital loss and investment tax credit carryforwards expire at various dates between 2009 and 2028. Of the U.S. tax credit carryforwards, $79 million consists of alternative minimum tax credits that have no expiration. A valuation allowance totaling $832 million has been recorded against these and other deferred tax assets where recovery of the asset or carryforward is uncertain.
Bid is actually .135, just not being shown (or filled)
From Bloomberg 7/17:
This isn't really anything new but the tone of the piece is pretty positive on ABWTQ:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=CEMJQ%3AUS&sid=aJAEm7rRrSoY
AbitibiBowater Settles Emissions Claim for a Song
AbitibiBowater Inc., the largest newsprint maker in North America, reached a settlement with the U.S. government over alleged violations of sulfur and nitrogen emissions from a plant in Calhoun, Tennessee.
While the violations could have resulted in millions of dollars of fines, the company said in a bankruptcy court filing this week, the settlement awards the government a civil penalty of $30,000 to be paid as a general unsecured claim. The company also is obligated to install monitoring equipment.
The company filed a separate motion to streamline procedures for settling disputes with customers covering claims that arose both before and after the bankruptcy filing in April.
The two motions will be the subject of an Aug. 4 hearing. At the same hearing, the company will ask the bankruptcy judge for a four-month extension of the exclusive right to file a plan. The new deadline would be Dec. 14.
Among its accomplishments in the first months of the case, AbitibiBowater points to final approval of a $206 million financing and a $300 million accounts-receivable securitization facility. To read other Bloomberg coverage, click here.
The combined AbitibiBowater companies listed assets of $9.9 billion and debt totaling $8.8 billion on Sept. 30. The Montreal-based company has 23 pulp and paper mills plus 30 wood- product plants. Revenue in 2008 was $6.8 billion.
AbitibiBowater was formed in October 2007 through a merger between Montreal-based Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. and Greenville, South Carolina-based Bowater Inc. Abitibi is a producer of newsprint, uncoated mechanical paper and lumber. Bowater also makes newsprint along with papers, bleached kraft pulp and lumber.
The case is AbitibiBowater Inc., 09-11296, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware
To the experienced traders:
Regarding the fight against naked shorting, is there any truth to what I've always thought were myths? 1) Calling the broker to request your shares not be made available to shorts 2) Setting a GTC sell order far above the current price.
With the OS so small, and the trading float even smaller, this one seems like it would be easy to monitor if someone were to make an example of those doing the illegal shorting.
ABWTQ added to the naked short list again on Friday
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2427360/
CMF, Chi Osc, A/D, and MFI all in tandem and showing marked divergences to the declining price. We gotta be close here.
I'll be very surprised if the judge doesn't grant this request due to the fact that it was the CDS holders who forced this company into Ch 11.
I think the delay is a good thing as it will allow for some stabilization in the industry before a reorg plan must be submitted. The share price might be dropped a bit more- 100 shares at a time- but once the right group gets involved, we should see the much anticipated squeeze.
Docket 658 Motion by the Debtors to Extend Exclusivity Period for a Ch 11 Reorganization Plan. The wait is about to get longer.
Ok, I'm not one to typically believe in MM's giving signals but 7 trades for 700 shares all at the same time. Any thoughts?
Nice, welcome back from vacation. With over 30% of the trading float short and the prospect of commons surviving, it would sure be nice if some momo group got this squeeze started.
8 of last 10 trades for 100 shares. What gives?
July A short data out and still showing a very large short position of 3.578 million shares. As discussed, the float can't be more than 12-15 million, possibly less than 10 million.
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=abwtq&submit=Short+Quote%99
Squeeze anyone?
Good catch on the licensee portion. That could be worth far more than the initial deal if this housing concept catches on.