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We need a buy out Monday before we all go insane
PS I reread your post and I think we say the same thing.
Paraphrasing HDG, current PPS has nothing to do with the BO price.
...
But what happens if a rumor of a BO leaks and we jump to $13 tomorrow? Then that premium for the same $26 BO becomes only 100%.
Premium is calculated AFTER the fact.
CBB--I like you.
Larger BO multiples are extremely rare but have happened before. It depends on whether BO should be based on current (whimsical?) pps valuation, or a sober projection of future business opportunity given risks.
I agree with pretty much all of your post. Whatever hard-a$$ number JT may have had in mind before Duumsday and covid, will have to come down significantly. Bargaining up the BO would also chase pps of other recovering equities moving forward imho. I feel anything above $30/share would be a solid if humbled price. The current pps--5x trailing revs, 3.5x forward 12 month revs--for a growth business is insane.
Revs are about right. I'm more concerned about the rev multiple they seem to be using. ~2x peak revenues seems low. Covid headwinds and EU decision risk don't seem to add up to that imho.
That said I like their $31 pt way better than, say, Cowen's. Which itself was way way better than the sub $3 pps market valuation for Amarin less cash right after patent ruling.
I think it's bullstuff. Even by total shares it's about half a proper valuation for current indications of AMR101. Even covid scariness doesn't explain it. Unless Judge Du runs EU (that's a rhyme), I'm unsure what risks are impacting their valuation.
Why not? Better than if they'd never bothered to begin with. Which is the new game we're playing since March 30.
Wear a gopro plz
Eh... previously his blog emphasized appealing over the 500mg Trig threshold, which to me is not as facially definitive as EPA/control NSS (not statistically significant).
I'm not saying he's a fifth column parading as an AMRN long. I'm just saying his litigation strategic judgment is second-rate.
Leanings?? Please. Judge Du arrived at this result via major errors of fact and law.
True, but I noticed 5 cars in the parking lot instead of the normal 4. How do you explain that?
GIA is always the default route, and a decent BO scenario requires a good GIA fallback. He has little control over who/when he fields a decent BO offer, and no businessman would idle their business waiting for a sugar daddy.
Executing a good GIA is essential for both GIA or BO strategies. A credible GIA sets up a credible rejection in the event of a lowball BO offer.
Brilliant! Glad to see a full takedown of his conflating 2 largely unrelated assertions by generics.
And, how often does that happen?
Let's get real. Judge Du royally screwed up. This isn't a matter of mispelling LDL. She made multiple massive errors, fact and law, all aligned in favor of generics who otherwise should have born burden of proof.
Generics seem motivated to build out credibility to their future patent challenges. Others here have posted a string of settlements between these generics and BP. The further generics go here, the better their bargaining position in other cases moving forward. "Look at what we did to Amarin, and there are other judges like Du"
Oof, markman alert! *bee woooo bee wooo bee woooo* He posted another doozy.
In this latest issue his article includes confusing running a clinical trial for every prescription, with standard practice of comparing experimental group to a control when proving something to USPTO *bee woooo*
Also he's deemphasizing Kurabayashi's role in Judge Du's decision, and implying it may not have been challenged by Amarin's evidence and briefs at trial *be woooo*
He's disagreeing with observed deficiencies in Judge Du's opinion while spinning this as a "good result for Amarin" *wwooooo*
Can someone re-paste that fan fiction about cops, letters, and triple digit BO pps thrown around for funsies? And sunny nowhere to be found because of course.
Billion dollar mistakes? Hello?
how is she disgrace
HDGabor you're right, and you've done a good job highlighting that. The magnitude and impact of Judge Du's mistakes are very frustrating.
It is an error. To re-interpret "differential effects reported between the EPA and control groups" as meaning anything other than the difference between EPA and control tortures both grammar and subjectivity. The word "baseline" doesn't even appear anywhere in that quote, parallel baseline comparisons are not standard practice and peculiar to generics' argument, and it's a speciously circuitous way of grasping at their preferred conclusion.
I do see immense value in brainstorming plausible meanings to help disarm whatever generics brainstorm. This part of law is def not my forte'.
differential effects reported between the EPA and control groups
They could "remand" ordering district court to reverse and enter judgment in Amarin's favor.
Personally looking forward to Remanded Du
Hear hear! Thank you Hamoa and HDG. I am an ant at your feet.
Also I feel mc1988 also deserves an honorable mention.
I feel like her disregard for the law, facts, real world impact on regular folks, the law again, and the future of drug development has more to do with being high on her recent promotion to Chief Judge. And not liking STEM which is why she went law in the first place. But sure, liberals.
If she makes another reversible error yes, another appeal is possible. This could all get resolved in a year or it could take several years.
HK-it was in their favor. Only by making multiple reversible errors could/did Judge Du rule against Amarin. My point remains those analysts understood the law and facts better than Judge Du.
Are you honestly expecting an analyst to estimate premised on "the judge is gonna thoroughly screw up"??
If 1+1= 2 and she states 3 on the record, how is that hard to prove.
I disagree. Their analysis of Amarin's patent case was way better than Judge Du's.
when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
If a judge is biased in any way, rest assured Judge Du is NOT having it. It's important to get the legal process right. Remember, the defendant never bears burden of proof. EVER.
(jk)
I don't know why it would
...and then John "Velvet" Thero began to speak, his words flowing with signature inexorable charm into my ear hole, causing my overnight position to pulsate with each corporate update. When I can't take anymore I pause for a glass of water, yet he leaves me as thirsty as ever for finalized quarterly earnings.
Anyone think it odd Amarin is holding this earnings/ops CC in mid April this year, instead of early May?
After hours, the day before JJ's premarket report?
This to a T.
Her comments about Mori and EPA and LDL delta confuses the null hypothesis, science's equivalent of flipping burden of proof.
if they know about it
Wow--that was pretty bad.
If you dislike her so much, start a citizen petition explaining why she should be removed from her position. That would actually address your underlying concern with her. The racism is just degenerate.
No. Immediately before that she discusses Kurabayashi's EPA and control groups separately.
...anything else she "must have" done??