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Yes, thank you.
That is just a simple estimate, and I assume that it is the floor. It doesnt include any obvious factors...like product margin growth...which has been impressive under Dye.
Per the Q1 transcript:
"Since completing all of our acquisitions, approximately 80% of our revenues derived from retail and 20% from our wholesale business."
"At our Purplebee's manufacturing division, we saw an increased production output growth from 76 kilograms in April of 2020 to 225 kilograms in April of 2021, a 196% increase."
"At Mesa Organics, we recorded retail product margin growth from 42% to 56% from April 2020 to April 2021. And at Star Buds, our retail product margins increased from 50% to 58% from December 2020 to April 2021."
I am with the other predictions that people have posted...between $28M-$30M. Anything over $30 would be blowout earnings. The only significant business changes for Q2 are full Starbuds dispensaries sales and the announcement of the biosciences division.
Colorado posted June cannabis sales. Overall Q2 quarterly sales are up approximately 4.6% from Q1, to $587,581,710.
Q1 Starbuds dispensary pro forma revenue was estimated at $26.8M.
Colorado Q1 Sales were $561,743,535.
That equates to 4.77% of the sales.
If you apply this same percent to Q2, that would place the Starbuds dispensaries revenue estimate at $28,032,703.
As much as I want to hate your comment...and I am optimistic of our earnings report...I dont think you are wrong. It seems the only excited cannabis people are those already invested waiting for the industry to pop. Look at the recent earnings reports. One would have thought Curaleaf alone should have jump started the US sector. If it goes into the weekend stagnant or red, I guess the only way for cannabis to rebound is a significant govt/regulation change. I think, in addition to regulation, that there are still too many unknowns and that is keeping players on the sidelines.
Been right there with you. Placed a few GTCs and my last one, partially filled Monday, nothing Tuesday...which was frustrating because bids filled below me...and finally (just) filled today. Time for the industry to reverse.
Definitely excited for earnings...and the direction of the company. Been trying to add as much as possible.
I thought Verano's earnings wasnt terrible...until it was followed by a share unlock which dropped the stock $1...and took their share count to over 300M. It's an exciting 2 weeks, too bad the market has yet to respond. I thought for sure US stocks would pop after Curaleaf reported double the revenue of Tilray and almost 7x their EBITDA.
What struck me as odd...there was an ask for almost 11K shares @ $2.30 yesterday. It sat there for a period of time and then disappeared. Now there is an ask for almost 1700 at $2.29. I know that there has to be buyers and sellers...and to some this could be a profit...but it makes you wonder if you're missing something. I mean, there is that saying, 'if it is too good to be true, it usually is'. I just dont get why anyone would sell now. Also, it probably isnt short selling since there really isnt any short interest left (per last report).
IPS, so I found the same when I was looking. However CompanyWeek.com recently interviewed Tim (on 8/2) and asked him about his crystal ball for the industry. His reply was,
"At one time, I thought cannabis companies could be absorbed by alcohol, tobacco, or pharmaceutical companies, and now I think cannabis companies are just going to pull up a chair right at the table. No one is taking over the cannabis industry -- the cannabis industry is an industry of itself."
Now I know this is speculation, but that doesnt sound like a standard response from a 3 retail business in a highly competitive market and an industry rapidly consolidating...that is, unless he knows his future outlook is about to change.
https://companyweek.com/article/companyweek-q-a-tim-cullen-of-colorado-harvest-company
If you look back at the deals that 'fell through', Strawberry Fields, Colorado Harvest and Medically Correct were the companies that walked away...and left saying good things about the SHWZ. The only deals Schwazze terminated were Dabble Extracts and Los Sueños Farms...plus the Colombia company, Green Equity. When it occurred, we talked about the possibility of the ones that walked away being lack of funding, the stock sinking and not wanting to overcompensate on equity. We talked about the ones that Schwazze terminated being due diligence (lack thereof) related. We also wondered if/when the landscape changed if they would be getting back together again (if I remembering correct we always felt Colorado Harvest could renegotiate). I think the initial list of AW deals was to make the company a 170M annual revenue company? Could this be the start of the band getting back together?...well at least the operators with good business principles. Very exciting times for sure!
Just wanted to share an interesting story:
https://www.dezeen.com/2021/08/01/hempcrete-pierre-chevet-sports-hall-lemoal-lemoal/
I was listening to the newest CannaInsider podcast (posted today) and just about spit my coffee across my desk when the guest, George Jage from Jage Media -- who is hosting an upcoming conference in Vegas at the same time as MJBIZCON in October, geared more toward executives -- announced Andy Williams will be moderating a panel that talks about "integration and best practices for merging your company" (32:25 mark).
Lately I have been doing the same and following OTCX. I have noticed that he has been a few weeks ahead of where it was going. He was at $2.30 (which at the time I thought was a joke) when the stock was over $2.50...3 weeks later it hit his bid. He dropped to $2.19...a week or 2 later it hit his bid. He moved to $2.11, and a week or so ago and it found him there. After it started climbing into the upper teens, low 20's, he placed an 11,200 sitting at $2.12. I lost track of that bid since we have been in the upper 20's low 30's. The hardest part of following VERT or OTCX is being patient and not jumping due to FOMO...which I am a constant victim of. Heck, most of the time I assumed those large low blocks were just placed there, as just incase bids, by DrugDoctor.
It is the first time since middle/end of June that MJUS increased their position with any of their holdings. Their SHWZ position increased by 1239 shares...to a total of 14025.
Exactly! He gives mentions in his weekly recaps...but I havent seen a tweet or a 'breaking news' post in a long time. Now I dont pay for his service, but I do wonder if he shields any company information from his insiders. I would doubt it though, because then he would lose credibility if the stock takes off and none of his paid subscribers were alerted to it before it did.
I know. Just seems like it is anytime LEXX goes up. Probably the downside of a small float. It hits that % threshold a lot quicker than others.
Talk about momentum kill. I swear this is the only stock that I know that will halt anytime it moves upward.
Just thought I would listen to the Nirup Krishnamurthy Cannabinoid Connect 85 interview again to see if anything jumped out at me. He does talk about the bioscience intentions...getting into the plant:
How can we use the cannabinoids?
How can we use the other things as we extract the distillate of the plant? How can we use the terpenes?
What kinda flavors do we need? Etc.
But that wasnt what jumped out. What made me go, hmmm was an earlier part convo in the interview. Around the 15:30 mark Nirup is talking about the industry. What stood out was how smoothly he drops metrics, and the values he provided, when talking about the ability to roll up the industry:
"The industry was run by a bunch of entrepreneurs, they dont have the level of sophistication to scale."
"Can they run a couple of dispensaries, and keep it profitable, yes."
"But if I want to have a company that has 50 dispensaries, a few farms, a few MIPS, and is gonna be many hundred million dollars in revenues, you need people, process and infrastructure in place to scale and drive efficiencies."
This is why I think Justin seemed excited for the end of the year. I think the 50 dispensaries is the intended target for 2021.
The ship started to sink when Scott Gottlieb stepped down as FDA commissioner. However with the recent Marlboro news the stock might tick up tomorrow with excitement. The problem, it is to occur within the next 10 years with the expectation that smokers will move to other devices like e-cigarettes or other modern heated devices.
I dont have proof of this, except my own observation, I think Dye taking over the company, and specifically the exit of old mgmt, soured Alan. Probably because it also included an exit as a client of New Cannabis Ventures (my own assumption). In the past Alan was all over Medicine Man Technologies PRs. SHWZ even had their own investor dashboard on the New Cannabis Ventures site...it is no longer active. When I noticed it no longer active is about the same time I noticed Alan quit posting any public company announcement, on time...just as 'end of the week mentions'. Oh well, jokes on Alan, because it's only a matter of time before the company makes enough noise on their own to bring the crowd.
Thanks Jeans. Reading through that and looking up the classes...while also taking the name into consideration...I think this has something to do with a unique drying/curing process.
International trademark classes
GOODS
CLASS 5 (Pharmaceuticals) Pharmaceutical, veterinary and sanitary preparations; dietetic substances adapted for medical use, food for babies; plasters, materials for dressings; material for stopping teeth, dental wax; disinfectants; preparations for destroying vermin; fungicides, herbicides.
CLASS 25 (Clothing) Clothing, footwear, headgear. --> I think this is more attire than merch
CLASS 34 (Smokers' articles) Tobacco; smokers' articles; matches. --> I think this has to do with an apparatus and/or method of drying/curing
SERVICES
CLASS 41 (Education and entertainment) Education; providing of training; entertainment; sporting and cultural activities.
I would consider it cannabis...even anything hemp derived. Essentially going all the way down to the seed. It's still the cannabis plant. That is why I am stumped. Could just be the way I define it though. I also already debunked my previous thought, and updated my comment. I could remove the last comment...but it took me a while to collect my thoughts and type up.
Future, I had the same 'close the deal before the harvest' thought. Figuring it would have a bigger impact directly hitting the books as opposed to after the fact, especially if the product gets moved through our own dispensaries and less through whole sale.
You seem closer to the action (and for my purely speculative comments): With that last line being, "none of the foregoing containing cannabis or cannabis derived substances". What are your thoughts on that? Do you think that they might also make a play at psilocybin...or some other psychedelic? I hate to jump to non-cannabis (obviously the heart of their business) but that line is pretty straight forward. I also suggest/select psilocybin because Denver approved an ordinance to decriminalize it in 2019. It could be an interesting component to add to the bioscience umbrella...and from what I heard, it is easier to dose, medically, because there is more (documented) research on it and supposedly reactions can be standardized/calculated across a population (unlike cannabis).
Update: Well it took me a lot of minutes to type my thoughts...and only 4 minutes to debunk it. Although it could be an interesting move...it I am probably very wrong solely because involvement could potentially hinder any possible uplist if/when regulations change around cannabis...and uplist is an ultimate goal.
That one has me stumped. Got the brain churning for sure.
Good find. I wonder if this is part of the bioscience division:
GROW FORTH™ trademark registration is intended to cover the categories of herbal supplements; Medicinal herbs; Herbs for medicinal purposes; Medicinal herbs in dried or preserved form; Medicinal herbal preparations; Medicinal herbal extracts for medical purposes; Plant extracts for medical, veterinary, and pharmaceutical purposes; nutritional supplements; dietary supplements; food supplements; none of the foregoing containing cannabis or cannabis derived substances.
Not just delivering...but doing so in RECORD TIME! That deal was announced June 1st and closed in less than 2 months. At one point it used to take 7 months for this industry to close on announced deals. I think that time has decreased to 4 months....but this is the first 2 month close that I am aware of.
I thought this was a very good conversation on recent events:
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL21hcmlqdWFuYXRvbW9ycm93L2ZlZWQueG1s/episode/bWFyaWp1YW5hdG9tb3Jyb3cucG9kYmVhbi5jb20vNDZiZjRiZDctYWQxMC0zMDJlLWI4YmYtZjM1NTMxNGFhZDlk?ep=14
The industry marketing strategy has been nothing less than impressive. It now has almost 70% of US voters wanting federal legalization. Psilocybin has even started to use similar marketing tactics. Start with medical acceptance and push medical benefits, segway into a less reactive, albeit more accurately defined, word -- from marijuana to cannabis, and now transition from recreational to adult use. In doing so I feel it moves cannabis from a the 'leisure activity' and gives it a sense of entitlement. It's genius! I started first noticing the change in terminology about a month ago...but within the last week I feel the industry has really stepped up their efforts to solidify the transition.
Regarding the last post: blunt* (seeing the typo and being out of time to correct it was driving me crazy)
If your looking for something to listen to:
Montel Williams - Let's Be Blount Podcast- When Will Cannabis Be Legal with Karen O'Keefe
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vSFNXNDI4NTUxMTUyNg/episode/NDZkMWFhODItZTZhNS0xMWViLWExMzktMmY4MTkxYTRjZDc4?ep=14
Nothing that hasn't been articulated, and deleted, from prior posts on this board.
Not sure if anyone else noticed, but the rhetoric has changed. Just like you are no longer supposed to call it "marijuana", but "cannabis"...the new appropriate term for "recreational" is "adult use".
Knife, I dont disagree and tend to leave politics out of the situation because it is a trigger topic. I only stated what I did because it was public knowledge, cannabis related and supported my skepticism when it comes to federal legalization.
Not much love here. I am assuming that is because the rest of the industry presented a greater buying opportunity. With that said, it is nice to see this holding up well considering how the rest of the industry moved today.
HA! I know...I seem to be getting more skeptical when it comes to federal legalization actually occurring however I am fine with that. I see the industry baby stepping forward which will continue to allow the US players to build a moat around their operations until the real time comes.
While it has seemed to be on the sidelines for the last few months, there is obviously excitement in the industry however I believe people are over-reacting. While Schumer is to bring it up tomorrow, the MarijuanaMoment article stated, "Details of the proposal’s provisions are not yet available, but the purpose of the draft being released is to spark conversation to inform what will be a formal introduction of the bill at a later date."
https://mjbizdaily.com/filling-marijuana-company-boards-is-getting-easier-as-industry-expands/
Schwazze added three new board members during the first quarter of 2021 to help oversee the Denver-based, vertically integrated cannabis company that formerly operated as Medicine Man Technologies. The company has a six-person board as well as a four-member advisory committee.
Due diligence is key during the recruitment process to avoid future board strife and conflicts, said Justin Dye, CEO and chair of Schwazze.
“You do your background checks,” Dye said. “You get their references and then you also go find your (own) references that would know of them. You try to get a really good picture of the individual: how they behave, how they get along (with others), how they perform, how they think through things, where their value is, etc.”
Candidates interview with Schwazze’s executive team as well as board members. Dye ultimately makes the hiring recommendation to the board, which votes to approve or reject new board members, he said.
...
Dye communicates with at least some of Schwazze’s directors on a near-daily basis to update them on business operations or get their input on decisions, he said.
“Really good directors are there to think about the shareholder,” he said. “They’re there to drive performance and hold the board and the CEO accountable. They’re there to offer their time.”
Good to know Alan doesnt seem to think federal legalization is sooner rather than later. Odd that the article turned into an add for TerrAscend. TerrAscend's company chairman was interviewed on a recent podcast. What I didnt known, until it was said, was that Canopy has a large stake of shares in the company. When TerrAscend moved to the US space they had to first work to shifting Canopy's shares to convertible ones that will become effective when the US landscape changes.
If you want an interesting listen:
https://cannaweek.simplecast.com/episodes
1) Federal Legalization Prospects in 2021
2) Section 280e, Federal Tax Policy, and the Cannabis Industry
I went to SHWZ on MarketWatch and we are +0.34 right now. The industry, as a whole, has had a red week...but I guess someone wanted out badly!
Future, my stance all depends on your definition of a takeover target. Do I think SHWZ will sell out to one of the (currently) bigger MSOs...No!...and quite frankly I am not sold on the top 5 MSOs being the same in the next 10 years. I personally think that the current top tier is simply where it is, and with the buying power that they have, because they are the only presence in limited licensed, limited market, states...that is why they keep focusing on those locations and fight so hard to lockdown the new rules/regulations in those states (even if you have to pay off a few politicians...or squash homegrow). Most of the current top tier companies arent "good stewards of cannabis". Do I think that Justin is building the company to be taken over by a larger entity (Corporate America) if/when the federal rules/regulations change...I do. That is not to say that I dont think the current company is being built to be a major player on it's own. I just think that Justin isnt nearsighted, and like any smart investor, has an (company/personal) endgame.
Not new information...but a new post:
https://factsaboutcbd.org/medicine-man-technologies-inc-otcmkts-shwz-inks-a-deal-to-take-over-southern-colorado-growers-reports-a-robust-growth-of-504-yoy-in-q1-2021-revenues-4490
Medicine Man posted revenues of $19.3 million up (504% YoY) in Q1 2021. Its adjusted EBITDA is $5.8 million in Q1 2021. It holds a positive cash flow of $1.7 million from its operations in Q1 2021 compared to the loss of $2.5 million in the same period last year.
Justin is excited about Q1 2021 revenues. The growth is on the backdrop of implementing an operating system that showed an improvement in critical areas.