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Such an odd trend lately, opens high and immediately pulls back, like everyday, what the hell is that? Haha
Looking into HMPQ
I still have a lot of researching to do, but if anyone can throw me a bone to ease the digging i'd appreciate it.
I'm trying to see the real potential value in this stock, Seems they have a good system going for CBD extraction, which they will surely be able to sell. But man oh man, that O/S is insane. Is there something I'm missing? like an insane insider ownership on that O/S? because this thing being a .017 stock with that many shares out makes me nervous that these guys will reduce share count by reverse splitting in the future.
Or this could be one of those stocks that sees some solid revenue/expansion and runs on hype to .50 cents a share in no time. I don't know, like I said, I'm researching this bad boy and considering a solid entry at some point.
But that O/S deff makes me nervous.
Your not missing anything. Trulieve is severely undervalued and it’s 100million unlocked O/S is already calculated in the current price. She’s barely been trading 4 months. Big things to come for this stock
The Wolf is playing games, he's not a beginner investor, and does is DD. He's spreading false info on the lockup release and telling people he trimmed his position for a reason. To scare off people. He's a sham.
The argument is made that the revenues can not sustain the growth we have experienced as more companies move into the market. I understand the view point. But with the cost associated to start a medicinal dispensary in Florida / open new stores, can be a lengthy and expensive process. Any companies that just try to bum rush the Florida market medically, as it stands now, I feel wouldn’t have the same quality product and customer loyalty as Trulieve.
I feel using conservative numbers such as 100usd a month per customer average is extremely fair even with a much larger competitive baseline. Trulieve will dominate Florida through its community outreach and extremely loyal customer base, as long as they continue to provide as they have.
As Trulieve opens more dispensaries and more products become available such as flower and edibles. Trulieve will be able to provide even more affordable products at competitive prices. And with two edibles partners, I am thinking they won’t have a huge issue with under supplied edible selections. That’s the hope anyway.
I love this company and I truly believe it’s a serious monster in the making right before our eyes.
What do you guys think would happen if Florida Legalized MJ rec wise? Do yall think it could have a negative effect on trulieves business? or would it help us?
The question is because I imagine it would drive prices lower and rec dispensaries would blow up everywhere within a year I'd assume.
Just curious what yall think
Form 7 tells us Trulieve is a no brainer. So I'm going to break it down even simpler.
Existing 110,905 patients (NOV)
10,157 new patients in NOV18. Say we keep a pace of 10,000 a month. thats 120,000 this year. Say each patient spends 100$USD a month on medicine.
120,000 + 110,905 = 230,905(100) = 23,090,500
23,090,500(12) = 277,086,000 per year in revenues.
Numbers are based on FLORIDA ALONE. Not taking into consideration the changes in legislation regarding Edibles, Flower, Dispensary caps, etc. 100$ a month per patient is extremely conservative.
We are in Mass and California now.
IR states we are already operating in Cali. Our aquistions were for pennies on the dollar.
we have letters of support from three major Mass. cities showing local government support which points towards expidited licensing. We will have the largest cultivation facility in Mass.
This this is huge, and with the awesome share structure we have. we are going places, no question. whether its on our own, or in an awesome buyout.
Investor relations regarding press release
Can we expect more frequent press releases on progress from the company in 2019? The Exchange has come out with strict guidelines about when a company can and can’t issue press releases. Their concern is that companies are issuing press releases about relatively immaterial events and do so as a means to promote the company name in the marketplace. As a result, there is greater scrutiny over each press release.
In other words. Trulieve is being cautious of what articles they put it, making sure they do it right. One of my three questions I asked
Thanks pal
Holdhigh,
Do you happen to have a link to the podcast by any chance? Sounds like it would be worth a listen.
From IR
2. When should we see some business coming out of California or Massachusetts? California has already started operations. Over the coming months, we will be taking several actions to improve the existing business there. We are very excited about this opportunity. We are just as excited about the Massachusetts deal. We have procured a cultivation location and we are actively pursuing locations throughout the state that give us an optimal footprint there. However, state and local approvals on these locations need to occur so we can’t expect any sales until later this year after permits are issued and construction on these locations has been completed.
Earnings to be 2nd or 3rd week of Feb.
“California has already started operations” you know what that means? :)
O/S if you do as little as google trulieves ticker and select under news, you will see an article regarding share lockup. Currently the only shares trading are 7 million or so but the company is valued around a billion in MC. So the locked up shares are calculated in today’s price. But this low share count trading is making this highly manipulative
ROGJR thanks for breaking down the video. Definitely valuable information she put out. Imagine if Trulieve started getting meaningful volume. It surged 20% off mediocre volume. Exciting year 2019 will be.
I wonder when edibles will be authorized for sale at Trulieve? I imagine the fact they have set up exclusive partnerships with two high quality edible providers tells me it can’t be that much longer. Next financials are in February, correct me if I’m wrong, but it will reflect 2018 total revenues will it not?
These prices were a blessing in disguise. If the company treats its investors right, we will see explosive expansion in 2019 which will surely cause a rise in price 100% from current levels IMO.
We just partnered with another high class edibles company for the exclusive right to sell, that’s right, you want quality? You need to come too Trulieve.
I just wish Trulieve would invest more in putting information out for the masses, all their achievements seem to be posted on Facebook and their website. Meanwhile we just get the occasional article that oftentimes leaves out valuable information.
Regardless, that’s ok, more time for me to accumulate. I just look at the bigger picture, which is how well these multi state operations execute this year. With the way Trulieve has been killing it in Florida, I’m confident they can handle the same growth in these other states. 200+ plus in 2019 just from Florida projected?? What about when they get going in Massachusetts? Which is still in its infancy itself but projecting huge growth in 2019. Trulieve is well on its way to 1billion a year in revenues if they continue to execute. And with current share structure, that would be some amazing gains.
HoldHigh, Thinking the same way.
100$ a month is a great conservative number to use. Think all the money Trulieve is putting away for further use in expansion without the need for diluting shareholders into oblivion.
I can't wait for an update on Mass. and Cali operations for some insight on how they will add to our outstanding numbers that are sure to come too fruit by end of 2019.
Say we continue our pace in Florida through 2019, and our recent acquisitions bring in 10-20 million extra EOY, 220 million - 240 million doesn't seem that far out of reach. Considering I think it's safe to assume we are finishing 2018 with revenues exceeding 100 million yearly into 2019.
If Trulieve treats us shareholders right and doesn't dilute any next year, I wonder what kind of share price we would be looking at with a great EBITDA and 200+ yearly earnings by end of 2019??
I'm not worried about Trulieve one bit haha. Even if they dumped their shares on market. The long term on this bad boy will be great.
Adding onto HoldHigh post.
Something to think about
As of 21 DEC. Florida had the following number of patients.
Qualified Patients: (Active ID Card): 165,072
Total Patients: 208,489
Source: FL DOH
Doing some math.
Active: 60% market share of 165,072 would be a total of 99,043 Active Patients.
Conservatively... If each active patient spent an average of 100.00USD a month on their medicine.
99,043(100) = 9,904,320 / M
9,904,320 / M = 118,851,840 USD a year based of those conservative numbers as of just 21DEC.
This company is a monster in the making, easily on its way far past it's 200,000,000+ predictions in annual revenue for 2019.
Unfortunately, I don't think they can uplist to a big board being federally still illegal, and they have operations going on in the states.
Geeeeesh, was hoping for a good day, well I guess they can't all be greendays
After hours dip?
Please, it was two trades worth 100 total volume, two 50 share trades as 16.50 haha
This may dip back, but it's because it's done nothing but run since IPO, This will do well, quarterly earnings like that is up there with Canada's largest players and our float is next to nothing compared too theirs.
Keep in mind, Florida's total population is 20.98 Million... Canada as a countries total population is 36.95 Million. So Florida as a state holds over 55% the population of Canada!
This Company is only getting started. I expect we enter the 20's very soon and the shorter's will start blowing this board up lol
Thx for your input man, If your shorting it your shorting it. Welcome to the hub, I see you just made your account.
I think it's gonna do well, but it will go down, so your right to short it if you want too scrape some cash off the dips.
Getshort,
I've heard about that spot, The nearest competition, also heard they bring in upwards of 2000 a day even though they are much smaller.
Planet 13 has it's own line of product and selection that will dwarf that nearest competition, people will pay for real quality product like their Chloe and Million dollar baby strains. I think that nearest dispensary will take some market share, but will definitely be losing a solid chunk of it too planet 13.
This Isn't going back down below a buck.
If they need to take a step away from their first store for the time being while waiting on another license that's fine... The amount of revenue they will generate from the super store on the strip will be double if not more.
This stock will do fine and continue to trend upwards, We will see dips, maybe below 1.88, at the most 1.40's. but IF we trend into higher highs here soon, then you can say bye to those kind of dips and the new floor will be 2.00, if it isn't already.
IDK if we will see 6USD before end of year, but I can certainly see 4USD, I really can't see you going wrong starting a position at 2.00USD and accumulating on the dips sub 2.00.
Just my opinion of course, Planet 13 has massive potential in 2019.
Great dip today.
I'm looking for a buying opportunity to average down some. Not sure if we will dip below 1.88, but if we can that would be awesome. I truly believe this stock will be a winner and the lower we can get in before the superstore shows off the amount of revenue it will be generating, the better.
IF we can generate the supposed 2000 visitor a day average, we will be generating well over 40 million in revenues, Would be cash positive as well. NO REASON for this not to be worth at least 4USD in the next 6 months. That's a 100% gain from today's price around 2 bucks.
I personally believe we will be worth much more then that. Especially with Nevada lounge laws likely coming online into the beginning of 2019.
Congrats to everyone that got in sub 1.00USD!
To everyone that might be holding the bag because they bought in higher, around 2.10-2.30, I wouldn't sweat it too much, this company has a lot going on and will be worth much more than that in the coming months in my opinion. Any time we get good dips, it's just a great time to average down.
I'm a long here, I believe that 2.00 is ground floor still, this stock is gonna rock it. May not be 8 bucks right away... but with the current share structure and insider ownership, combined with profit potential, this is a no brainer.
A great opportunity to get in on something that isn't already massively over-valued.
So the 55 million shares can be unlocked at any time and have the same rights as non-restricted shares. All of these shares are owned by management. The reason for the different share structure is for the company to not be considered a US company less than I think 40% of shareholders can be owned US citizens.
The Restricted shares owned by management don’t count towards this US ownership %. Realistically it means these shares don’t trade, there is no market for the restricted shares so for management to sell any shares they have to convert them and then sell them. Both events would require regulatory filing.
Investor Relations
I spoke with Mark from investor relations today, figured I'd share the response.
I asked about advertisement for the up coming store opening. The store is fully funded and expected to reach profitability very quickly. Management is spending 1 Million dollars on advertisements targeting Vegas tourism and weekend local visitors. they will target taxi cabs, bill boards, hotels etc.
The building is complete regarding the 16000 sq/ft dispensary, the rest of the space will be used up and finished by the end of 2019, depending on the business, it may be cut too the first half of 2019.
Word on changing laws regarding lounge style business being authorized is expected by end of 2018 or beginning of 2019.
"There is no need for funding to build out the current Superstore and expectation are that the Superstore will be profitable on a quick timeline. You are right however if we expand to other jurisdictions it probably comes with some level of dilution. The goal of any acquisition in another jurisdiction is that it would be accretive to company valuation. 70% of the shares are held by management, they are not going to do anything to dilute their ownership if it doesn’t provide the company significant value above the cost of the dilution."
IR responded to my email within 2 hours, and answered the phone on the first call.
I was referring to the Hemp Farm Bill, I believe 30SEP is the renewal date. The date could also be extended past the deadline... it is U.S. politics after all lol
Crunching some numbers. Suppose they receive the suggested 2000 visitors per day at their superstore. That's 730,000 people, suppose each one spends 60 bucks, thats 43,800,000 in revenues. Cut that in half by 50% for total profit and that's 21,900,000...this is being very conservative.
So I'm thinking like what if the number of visitors is double or triple the 2000 a day estimate being on the vegas strip? Or rather, If the number of visitors are doubled or tripled in online sale / delivary and pick-up? That number could easily double too 43,800,000 in total profits next year from the opening date? Especially if Nevada changes their current legislation into the city allowing licensed lounges where customers can buy product, and use it at the same time in house.
If the company doesn't dilute us too oblivion then there is some potential here I think for some awesome long term gains. Management holds 70% insider ownership, they wouldn't want to dilute themselves right? they want this thing too blow up so they can become billionaires. Our leadership has a strong political background which leads me to speculate on potential foresight on new legislation?
2000 visitors a day is just barely over 1% of the total 55 million annual visitors Vegas gets each year, The company has a lot of expansion available and have spoken about a brewery and coffee shops opening up as well. Nov 1st is the grand opening of the super store and they are beginning stock in october with i believe a little over 40 registers.
With Hemp bill potentially being legalized as well at the end of september, these guys will also be able to sell hemp based beverages and products that are available for in house use as well. That opens doors to lots of other ideas.
60,000 some hotel rooms will look directly over Planet 13 and everything is within walking distance or an easy cab ride.
I'm not trying to be a pumper, I'm throwing out some speculation and numbers using what they considered conservative regarding daily visitors. When you think about the amount of suppliers who will want their product on Planet 13's shelves, future partnerships and investors, the drink industry, the club atmosphere and amount of traffic in Vegas, future expansion, the ability to be cash flow positive soon, and the insane valuation on other weed companies... I just don't understand WHY this isn't getting any real attention or consideration, maybe because people are waiting to see if it's a success? I don't know, but I just see such huge potential short term, and long term into 2019/2020.
Just some thoughts, I AM a shareholder, but I'm a Long.
broke 9.50 resistance, prepare for a hard drop.
T-Tucker
I agree, I wouldn't mind the stock dropping hard into the 6.00's because it would present an awesome dip opportunity to Average down or re-enter at a much better price for the huge upside we are facing this year.
not scared at all, this dip is just opportunity
I agree player1234, I still am hanging on to some shares averaged out around 8.90 to see what happens.
Just sold large position with full intention to fully recommit on the dip. Hope it was the right call haha, I just feel like this may dip back into the 9's or less briefly before getting back into the 12's. since Sessions and Citron will cause a lot of cold feet
I've been in and out of a few Mary stocks but I'm glad a buddy of mine recommended this one to me
After doing just some DD it's clear as day this guys gonna run hard this year, how much exactly idk but I've been looking for something to dive into to capitalize on the MJ gold rush that will kick off big time this year around or even before July and I believe this is deff it.
I'm in at the 6-8.64 range and I'm not worried, people may say this stock is over valued and it will have its healthy corrections I'm sure. But the chart is so progressive and the future so bright for the industry and especially the company. Some say 40 by the end of year, id like to see that hell yea, but even it takes a year or two, this stock will be making us money and now is the time to get in. Dips or not it's still cheap as shit in my opinion.
Hold on, don't get scared and sell, to each is own and follow your gut, but I have faith in this one!
-Scrap