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I really don’t want to argue these points, probably because I’m wrong. Yes, liabilities are high, but my understanding is that a majority of the balance sheet liability is in warrants outstanding. This goes away with cashed in warrants (or warrants expiring). But, despite the value at these prices, I agree that a share buyback is probably not prudent at this point. Product commercialization will carry s far greater value and is top priority.
Uh...did you read the press release about the equity cash out? That wouldn’t be reflected in the last 10Q. Keep up with the news kab.
There will be 46 million more cash position in the next 10Q. Perhaps 1-3 million could buy back shares at these prices? Boost the share price, then draw in some warrant money?
We’re getting really close to book value. Would love to see the company buy back 5-10 million shares at these prices.
I expect the next press release to be either topline data announcement or a partnership/buyout announcement. I’m hoping late January to end of February for that announcement. Anyone else familiar with the research process care to comment?
Until approval, it is not prudent to pay off all debt with their cash. Once the sales start rolling, that’s the time to get out of debt.
There will be sales and marketing expenses. But, if the data is as positive as projected, it will speak for itself. New trials should continue to add value.
Dr. Liau’s Christmas gift will be getting to see the data unblinded. Analyzing subgroups and performance status will be interesting. The biggest answers will come from looking at patterns within the best performing patients. What do they have that the other patients lack?? How can we duplicate those responses in all patients?
2019 is going to be a great informational year. Even though DCVAX is not a full cure, this trial is going to provide great scientific insight into immunotherapy. I expect the vaccine will provide a marked improvement over status quo.
They could actually reverse the playbook against shorts. It they paid a dividend, it would force shorts to cover and drive the price up, bringing in more warrant cash. Literally they could pay the dividend with their warrant money.
It would actually probably be better to announce a share buyback at these prices.
Maybe our new war chest will net a special .01 dividend? That might keep the shorts honest...
I agree. Ours was a sweet real estate deal. Somebody is rooting for us to cross the finish line.
I hope not. Would love to get some more next week at .22
Our survival also has a long tail. I agree that we’ll persevere. I give management props for holding on as we watch the data get better and better. Patients deserve this treatment and our management seems determined to get it to market and return value to investors.
Sweet! Great buying opportunity before topline. Sounds like a Christmas gift.
When something gives an indication of success against GBM, I think it behooves medical professionals to pay attention. Historically, nothing really works against GBM. Temodar and radiation slow growth and extend life, but the disease is heterogeneous and extends microscopically beyond radiation margins. The BBB prohibits chemical infiltration into the brain. But Dr. Liau has made it clear that her research shows an immune response is capable within the brain. What I believe the next steps are within this line of research is to figure out how to strengthen the system and help the immune compromised. Our immune systems often can’t fight advanced infections on their own, as evidenced by the need for antibiotics. But immune mechanisms can be artificially advanced. There is so much work yet to be done, but this trial demonstrates an exciting pathway to explore dendritic cells as a vector to advance the immune system and fight malignant growths within the body.
Keep sharing. This is the frankincense and myrrh of 2018
She’s committed to the pot. I’m not worried. I’d feel quite honored to sit on this board. I’m debating the merits of attending the shareholder meeting just to meet them.
A word of caution...I’ve heard that doctors don’t make the best investors. I would imagine that of the many doctors here, many are kicking themselves for investing before the drop to .15. Good science and good medicine don’t always make for good business.
Hopefully the ride back up will be nice.
The good doctor alphapuppy took the time to sit me down and clue me in here. When I did my own research, it became obvious how undervalued this security was. I’ve just tried to help spread the news.
I tell my friends and family that this could be the investment of a lifetime.
You’d probably be surprised at how many cancer doctors are invested in this security. It’s not the science holding this company back, but the external regulatory environment and financial uncertainty.
Flipper...
From my experience of 20+ years in medicine and cancer care, I can say with certainty that when LP talks about pioneering in this PR, she couldn’t be more correct. Every aspect of this trial is a groundbreaking approach to cancer treatment. And, for a significant # of patients, something here works. I read an interview with Steve Ballmer this week where he talked about an early meeting with Paul Allen and they looked at early computers. Paul said, “let’s write the software for that device”. The rest is history.
My point is that this company feels like an early Microsoft. This trial took one of the worst forms of cancer and seems to have found a way to profoundly impact survival for a significant number of patients. The platform in theory should work for many other cancers. I see it as having the potential to change cancer care in the same way that Windows changed computing.
You’ve done a great job calling the early play by play on this company in formative years. I hope you’re around if the story needs to be told to mark their place in history.
Say it isn’t so Marz...
I’m still banking on that cruise with you. My money is still on January.
I think the next 90 days will be monumental. I expect the next 30 days to bring more silence and speculation.
I would imagine that a prerequisite to any deal would be the full disclosure of data. No big pharma is going to buy this on speculation at billions of dollars when they can slowly accumulate shares for pennies on the dollar until topline comes out.
I agree. I think the whole process took longer than even they anticipated due to journal submissions, changing criteria, and such. The whole way it went down was awkward. I suspect that they submitted to a more prominent journal in Oct/Nov 2017 and the paper got pushed around until it found its way into JOTM. No matter. It served its purpose for interim data. The big publication will be in the mining of all the data from this trial upon unblinding. This trial should advance immunotherapy greatly.
I remember that too Senti...but it was about 3 months longer than I expected to get the interim data published.
They should get used to that trend
Thanks for that information. Based on share count, we either fall into this corollary or we don’t :)
What is a 10 year clinical trial worth? The additional Direct platform? I think success changes everything.
Mr Bigger seems to be confident in the science and shares management’s desire to get this product to market. He’s not in this for a quick buck or to sell out on the cheap. He’s a deep value guy looking for a 10 or 100 to 1 gain. His cost basis easily allows possibility.
It sounds like Woodford had alterior motives
I concur with this assessment. While I have a great deal of appreciation for what management did to put us in a position to get to positive topline data, they certainly did early shareholders no favors with the ridiculous amounts of dilution. That being said, as a shareholder, there are ways to protect yourself by averaging down. In essence, our CEO did the same thing by lending the company money with preferred conversions last spring. Anybody else with extra cash had the same opportunity.
I don’t completely fault the board of directors here. While they didn’t have enough vision to foresee the potential longevity demands of the P3 trial, they also managed it as best as they could under the circumstances and LP put her own skin in the game to get us through. If she is rewarded grandly for the money she put in, it is well deserved. I didn’t see Neil Woodford ponying up another 10 million last winter for preferred shares. That was potentially a huge error on his part.
If they sell out between 10 and 20 billion, this will all be water under the bridge. The board will be richly rewarded for navigating treacherous waters and shareholders will be made whole. Cancer patients should benefit too. This treatment platform is a game changer.
All the answers come in 2019.
We’ll get that the day a buyout is announced.
11 years is a long time for the next advancement to catch up. By then, we’ll be about halfway through combo trials.
I have very few complaints against LP, but I am hoping she learns the art of underpromising and overdelivering. We’ve won some lawsuits and the silence has protected us from new ones. Now we need some overdelivering on topline before ASCO.
Topline and full publication could come any day after the New Year. Once we get there, FDA approval will be next. Demand will be immediate.
By ASCO...you should be a happy human.
Do good with your wealth.
I think the final push will be difficult due to their need to reanalyze PFS data. I would imagine that psuedoprogression is still confounding PFS analysis. Patients that they thought had evented may not have actually PFS evented?
I agree Flip...no PR prior to open was a huge miss. My anticipation all weekend was just a big letdown.
They better be working hard on a larger negotiation.
If there is no PR prior to opening, Les better have been up all night negotiating a $15 billion buyout.
I think the key here is the demand for something that works for GBM. Anything. DNDN was, I believe, a prostate cancer therapy. Not much huge demand there. For the most part, surgery and radiation take care of prostate cancer until something else kills a patient. Metastatic prostate cancer is a concern, but it’s fairly slow growing.
The GBM market is currently ridiculously unmet. Something that works should establish itself quickly. Expansion of use to other brain tumors and such could come quickly. Combo trials could expand efficacy. Still no side effects.
I’m excited for the potential here. If you know the cancer field well enough, you can distinguish the difference between a company like DNDN and NWBO. It’s apples and oranges.
We’ll see where things go from here. I’ve never been more excited about a therapy.
Curing mice is quite a difference from a phase 3 successful therapy against the most deadly form of cancer. This isn’t a cure. But it’s a MAJOR advancement. And it’s not just a drug. It’s a platform. NWBO was WAY oversold for too long. While shorts might not get out for good until we get over $5, it is clear that this platform works in a space that has confounded scientists for years. There is more work to do, but NWBO could end up having a monopoly on the solid tumor treatment space for decades. Think lung cancer. Pancreatic. Ovarian. Breast. NO side effects. Just the immune system fixing a mutation. Combine it with checkpoint inhibitors for more efficacy.
Patients have deserved this for too long.
Who’d sell at $1? Not me...
There is. Just wait until they separate the treatment from the placebo arm.