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NCV
My only hesitation with NCV is that it is trading at a 2% premium to its NAV. I think if you wait for a while you'll be able to get this one at a significant discount to NAV. Not because of anything integrally wrong with NCV or its holdings, but because of overall market conditions.
Then again, this is the first time in a while that NCV has traded anywhere near its NAV.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/other.asp?MFID=108697
Before Crestor and Zetia were approved, a physician whose patients are failing Lipitor would have been many, many times more likely to add a fibrate, niacin, or a bile acid sequestrant than to switch to simva. Period.
End of this conversation for me....
I don't think I've missed P3's point. Patients in this study are unlikely to be switched for efficacy reasons. I'd be willing to bet that the *vast* majority were likely to have been switched because of a cost issue--even before it went generic, simva was significantly less expensive than Lipitor.
That is to say, they were doing just fine on Lipitor to begin with and were switched for reasons not related to efficacy.
You have to understand that no physician would take a patient who was doing poorly on atorvastatin and switch them to simvastatin in the hopes that they would respond better to simvastatin. But your scenario would require that a large number of physicians would do just that...
In any case, there is no way to design a randomized trial to test this. You have to rely on real-world data. This is the best you're going to get.
I could really go into detail here (in fact I might tomorrow) but the point of the study is that *switching* to simvastatin is associated with substantially worse outcomes.
Let's examine the potential outcomes when a patient is switched from atorvastatin to simvastatin:
1) lipids go up because it's a less potent statin
2) disruption of treatment results in lack of adherence to simvastatin (switching from one medication to another has been shown to reduce adherence). Lipids go up because you're not taking a statin
Now let's look at possible reasons why they might have been switched:
1) COST (there's an active effort to get patients on simva)
2) Much less prominently, adverse effects with Lipitor. However, few physicians are going to switch to simva from Lipitor if they're seeing AEs. Thus this represents a very small proportion of patients
3) Poor response to Lipitor. Although you advance this as one source of bias, it's highly unlikely that patients would respond poorly to Lipitor and then respond to simva. It's even less likely that a physician would try simva in a poor Lipitor responder.
It's also unlikely that patients would be switched to a less potent statin (simva) if they had a poorer prognosis.
So yes, there is a potential for bias in this study, but it's all against Lipitor.
The point here clearly is that switching from Lipitor to simvastatin has a negative impact on outcomes. It's equally clear to me that this is driven by lipids, whether because of the reduced lipid-lowering efficacy of simvastatin or because patients stop adhering to their medication post-switch. Simple story.
Liberals float lifting moratorium on trusts
Nice!
STEVEN CHASE and NORVAL SCOTT
September 5, 2007
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070905.RLIBERALS05/TPStory/?query=income+trusts
OTTAWA and CALGARY – Stéphane Dion's federal Liberals say they're willing to scrap a moratorium on the creation of new income trusts if they win office - but perhaps only for a limited number of sectors including the oil patch.
In a new development yesterday, Mr. Dion's party floated two proposals in Calgary meetings with energy sector representatives and tax experts.
Liberal finance critic John McCallum and Opposition House Leader Ralph Goodale said the party will consider allowing a select number of sectors - such as the oil patch - to continue to form new trusts.
Alternatively, they said, they're considering allowing broad-based use of the trust structure by all sectors but with restrictions to prevent initiatives solely designed to dodge taxes.
The Liberals have already promised to repeal the 31.5-per-cent tax the Conservative Harper government slapped on trusts last Halloween and replace it with a 10-per-cent levy refundable for all domestic investors but not foreigners.
The Liberals had previously pledged to maintain what amounts to a ban on new trust formations for an indefinite period.
Mr. McCallum said the party thinks the trust structure, derided by the Harper government as bad for the economy, has merit and should be allowed to exist - at least for some sectors.
"The question is under what conditions and in what sectors would we allow the creation of new income trusts," Mr. McCallum said.
He said a good argument can be made that energy trusts have as much right to exist as real estate investment trusts, which were effectively exempted from the October, 2006, Tory trust tax.
"They are both passive distributions of income. That ... [was] the traditional trust vehicle before they started spreading elsewhere in the economy," he said.
Mr. McCallum said the Liberals are also considering banning certain sectors from forming trusts, such as federally regulated industries, including banks, telephone companies, railways and airlines.
"I don't think we want our major chartered banks to become income trusts," he said.
The Liberals emphasized that they haven't cemented any position yet and will consult across Canada before rewriting their trust policy.
The Opposition Liberals are now tied in the polls with the governing Conservatives. The minority Harper government could fall if the Bloc Québécois withdraws its backing.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's office dismissed the Liberal announcement, saying the party could not be trusted to handle the file effectively, in part because income trust formations ballooned under their watch.
"They were there for a long time and all they did was mismanage the issue," Flaherty spokesman Chisholm Pothier said of the Liberals.
Income trust officials applauded the fact the Liberals are talking about a survival scenario for trusts but registered concern about Ottawa picking winners and losers among sectors.
John Dielwart, chief executive officer of ARC Energy Trust, said the industry appreciated the opportunity to have "constructive dialogue" with the Liberals, saying trust officials consulted yesterday indicated "unanimous support for the 10-per-cent [tax] solution as a good first step, provided there is the avenue for sector-by-sector discretion on what does and doesn't make sense."
Asked about the Liberal proposals to selectively allow the formation of new trusts, Mr. Dielwart said, "It's not the government's job to pick winners and losers, that's for the capital markets to decide. If the wrong businesses are in the sector, then the marketplace will resolve that."
George Kesteven, president of the Canadian Association of Income Funds, said the Liberals are likely embracing trusts because they're highly favoured by seniors and investors saving for retirement. "They're probably looking at the same demographics we have ... an aging population looking for an income stream, looking for an investment vehicle," Mr. Kesteven said.
"Canada doesn't have a junk bond market like they do in the U.S., so there's no high-yield options" available to seniors who rely on an income stream, Mr. Kesteven said.
"We like the direction because it allows the industry to survive."
Thinking about…ANSV.
I’m not so sure that ANSV is an appealing takeover target, but with a market cap of about $175 M, a product on the market that will do at least $100 M in a few years, multiple applications for their needle-free delivery system, and a phase 2/3 nonopioid in the pipeline, I think we might have a value buy here.
Just offhand, though, a colleague told me that administration of Zingo feels like a punch in the arm…so maybe uptake won’t be that great.
PS: If anyone has a home remedy for a pulled neck muscle, let me know. I haven't done a thing all day except surfing from bed. This sucks.
Seeking Alpha
Zingo Approval Makes Anesiva An Appealing Takeover Target for Endo Pharma
Monday August 20, 7:53 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070820/44956_id.html?.v=1&printer=1
Mike Havrilla submits: Anesiva (NasdaqGM: ANSV - News) surprised investors on Friday with FDA approval for pediatric use (ages 3 – 18) of Zingo, over five weeks earlier than the expected PDUFA date of September 24, 2007. Zingo is a needle-free, rapid onset (1 – 3 minutes) delivery system for lidocaine, which provides local anesthesia prior to needle stick procedures such as IV insertions or blood draws. The company will provide investors with additional details on the product launch in the coming weeks, including the potential for partnerships to expand upon their initial marketing plan, which targets select hospitals using their own focused sales force.
Zingo is expected to price around the midpoint of the company's $12 to $16 range, compared to products already on the market, including: EMLA cream which is messy to use with a long one hour onset, but cheap around $8.34 and available in generic form and Endo Pharma's (NasdaqGS: ENDP - News) Synera patch at around $12.60 with a longer 20 to 30 minute onset of action. In April, Anesiva sent a notification to Endo stating that Zingo is not meant to be a generic form of Endo’s lidocaine patches Lidoderm and Synera. Instead, the company contends that Zingo is a ready-to-use, single-use, needle-free system that delivers sterile lidocaine powder into the epidermis of the skin and provides topical, local analgesia in one to three minutes after administration.
The company also announced during Friday's conference call that it is very close to completing enrollment of 700 patients in a Phase 3 trial evaluating Zingo in the adult population, which it expects to complete shortly and then release results quickly thereafter as the trial will not take long to complete since it is used on a one-time basis prior to needle stick procedures. Anesiva expects to complete the single Phase 3 trial by the end of the third quarter and file a sNDA to expand the use of Zingo to the adult population. Also, the company expects to file a MAA for European marketing approval once it has the adult data; as its partners prefer to have data for both children and adults before seeking approval.
The company also identified other potential out-licensing opportunities for its needle-free delivery system for drugs with huge market potential such as insulin (for diabetes), calcitonin (for osteoporosis), epoetin (for anemia), and human growth hormone (to correct deficiencies).
Also, the company plans to imminently announce additional Phase 2/3 studies for its experimental, non-opioid pain medication Adlea (formerly 4975) at doses of 15 mg, versus previous trials at 5 mg. The company recently reported encouraging results in a Phase 2 study in osteoarthritis of the knee, with pain relief sustained at 12 weeks after the initial injection.
The company believes the increased dose represents the optimal balance between increased efficacy and safety, and will study Adlea in various indications including knee replacement, hip replacement, shoulder surgery, and osteoarthritis of the knee. Adlea is a novel, long-acting (weeks-months), locally-injected formulation of capsaicin (the active, hot component of chili peppers which is currently only available OTC in pain-relief creams) which results in low exposure and absorption while avoiding the systemic side effects of existing pain treatments such as opiates and NSAIDs.
After initially trading up as high as $7 per share during pre-market action on Friday, the stock settled to close around $5.50 on over 10 times average volume, barely above the stocks all-time low of $4.92 just one day earlier during the temporary market meltdown before the Fed liquidity bailout. This price is an excellent entry point for investors to establish a position in Anesiva, with multiple upcoming catalysts including Anesiva launch, domestic/global partnerships for Anesiva, additional clinical trials for Adlea with low clinical risk based on positive Phase 2 results, and additional out-licensing opportunities for the company's innovative, needle-free drug delivery technology. I also believe that Anesiva represents an excellent takeover candidate for Endo Pharma, who has over $700 million in cash which it intends to put to use for targeted acquisitions among companies with novel pain treatments and pipeline candidates. Anesiva provides a perfect fit for Endo, providing it with an approved product in Zingo, a promising pipeline candidate in Adlea, and an innovative needle-free drug delivery system. Finally, peak sales of Zingo alone, based on analyst estimates, have the potential to exceed the company's tiny market cap of about $150 million at around $5.50 per share
Agree about BKCC. I took a small position a few days ago and will be taking a much larger position during the next panic.
What if We Aren't Going to Crash?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/S-BBI-NFLX-VG-EBAY-COST-WMT-INTC-GE-AAPL-BBB-DV-MAN-ASF-C-GS/ind....
Rarely will you hear me discuss macroeconomics. I learned long ago that there are just way too many strong opinions floating around out there, and rather than subscribe to any one particular theme, what has made me money was sticking with the charts.
I am currently and will always be one who strongly believes the chart of a stock tells you all you need to know and on the rare occasion it does not, I accept it and move on. Rather than debate macroeconomics I much prefer to discuss the emotional struggles, strategical initiatives and stylistic evolution a trader goes through as he travels the path to success.
Lately, however, it seems we are being inundated with some very loud and prevalent arguments that give credence to the bearish camp and while at this very moment, I would label myself as market neutral, I thought it would be interesting to bat around some different ideas from a laymen’s point of view.
Inflation
Prevalent Opinion: Due to global growth, commodity prices have shot up, sending ripples through just about every industry as margins shrink and prices must be raised. Also due to this global growth and the fact that oil is a commodity quickly being used up, gas prices have jumped to extreme levels. Furthermore, due to the ethanol boom and rising cost of agriculture products, consumers are now paying more for everything from milk to eggs. The end result of this inflation is a strapped consumer, slowing consumption and a slowing economy.
Other thoughts: There is no question we are paying more for many things and areas of inflation are on the rise. However what about the areas where competition, innovation and globalization are resulting in a dramatic price drop? My first cell phone was several hundreds of dollars, while today Sprint (S) will give you one and it takes pictures to boot. I no longer spend $4.50 to rent a movie at Blockbuster (BBI) I have Netflix (NFLX) for $12.00 per month and am actually looking back into the Blockbuster product because I have heard it is cheaper.
My Internet and TV are bundled into one package, which is costing me less than ever before and I pay no long distance and ridiculously low rates with my Vonage (VG) phone line. Recently I started using Skype from eBay (EBAY) and am considering switching from Vonage. When I travel, I continue to book flights for under $200.00, something that ten years ago was unheard of, and finally, I am not too proud to hop over to Costco (COST) or Wal-Mart (WMT) in order to pick up all my groceries for far less than traditional grocery amounts. To top it all off, my broker continues to lower my trading commissions so I can save money and he can keep my business.
In my opinion, this is BS. Real inflation—the increase in prices of things that actually matter, like food, energy, housing, etc. Is high and has been high for the past 5 years. Decreases in the prices of trivia like cell phones and movie rentals can't make up for that.
Trade Deficit
Prevalent Opinion: The US imports far more than it exports, making it far too reliant on countries like China and their products.
Other thoughts: This is one of the most confusing arguments I have ever heard. Here’s why. When Intel (INTC) designs and creates a chip in the United States and then sends it to a plant in Asia for production, how does one value the exporting of the intellectual property or the designs to build the chip? The product is then manufactured overseas, shipped from overseas, and if it is sold in a computer that comes back into the US, it is counted as an import. At the end of the day, the money from the sale is eventually brought back into the US in the form of profits.
Doesn’t this take place with most technology companies? What about General Electric (GE) products or any other domestic company that has a plant overseas? Sure, at least until recently, the US may buy a heck of a lot of Asian toys, produced and manufactured there, but for the most part it is the major US corporations that possess the manufacturing plants overseas, and are sending over the designs to be constructed. It is a simple case of the US working smarter, not harder, and if it ever again becomes a country that exports more than it imports, based on the way the Trade Deficit is calculated, I will become quite concerned.
The bigger problem is the amount of US debt held by the Chinese. Better than a few bombs pointed at Los Angeles, if they should choose to get aggressive over, say, Taiwan.
Biggest Foreclosure Percentage Since The Depression
The Great Depression started in 1929 and while I don’t know exactly what the percentage was, I do know that home ownership before the end of World War II was extremely low. Not only that, but the US population was much lower.
Before we start comparing the current housing market with the housing market of 70 years ago, we should make some population and ownership percentage adjustments. The simple fact is over the last five years everyone who had a job and many that didn’t bought a house. Heck, many of them bought two. The point is, all moons aligned where so many people could buy homes and did.
Demand is now squelched and a cut in interest rates will not get us back to where we were. It will take much time for the supply to be absorbed and we can forget housing being a major economic driver for our country.
Mortgage Mess
As a result of this recent boom, the US now has to go through a period of cleansing. However, Americans also live in a country where political leaders will not allow masses to lose their homes. It just won’t happen.
Regardless of the opinion you hold on this intervention, it is what it is. While I don’t believe we can equate today’s housing slump to the Great Depression, "Hooverville" is not far from everyone’s mind and they will not allow the American public to lose everything they have because interest rates jump and over-extended borrowers cannot afford their mortgage. Furthermore, we are a prideful nation. The same reason everyone must have an Iphone or I-anything from Apple (APPL) is the same reason so many will fight to keep their home. If anything, this current situation has served to motivate many to do all they can to meet payments.
Unemployment
It seemed like everyone I met over the last five years was tied somehow to the mortgage or housing market. It is natural when you go through a major industry transition to also go through a big employment transition as well.
I suspect a migration will take place to the health care and medical sector in order to care for our aging baby boomer population: an employment sector, by the way, that is incredibly under-served and in dire need of help. While there will be a lull in employment, the beneficiaries of this transition will be public education or trade schools. Stocks like Blackboard (BBB), and Devry (DV) should benefit tremendously while intermediate solutions, i.e. temp work, soar and companies like Manpower (MAN) and Administaff (ASF) are inundated with new clients.
This has to be one of the dumber things I’ve heard. Well-paying jobs in the health care and medical sector are highly skilled require a huge investment in education and aren’t the kinds of jobs you can get with a 6-month online course from Devry. In other words, any migration to the health care sector will flesh out the ranks of people doing the laundry in the basement, not the jobs that actually pay a living wage (doctors, nurses, physician assistants, etc).
Credit Crunch
There is no question that the packaged product market is going through a cleansing as well. Banks all over the world got extremely greedy pushing the limits of a game that had worked so well for so long. Now, they are having a hard time gaining access to needed credit, simply because the collateral they posses is tainted.
At the end of the day, this too is a supply and demand market, and over time these banks will come to the realization that borrowing at such cheap rates, or not paying the appropriate market rate, for the given risk, is a thing of the past. This will serve to hit the top line of many major financial institutions and squeeze margins. We are already seeing this indicated in the charts of these financial stocks such as Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) and I suspect we will hear it directly from them in the coming quarters.
So what do you do with all this information or these other points of view? Not a thing. You continue to stick to the charts and allow them to be your guide. Either side could be right, and there are also time frames involved. The pessimistic camp could be correct for the next few months, or even years, or their arguments could fade quickly as the more optimistic views come into focus. We will only know when it is over, however I simply thought it was important to take a glimpse at some other ideas.
It sounds to me like you are much more attentive to your health than an average person. If your somewhat complicated regimen works for you, that's great, but most people want to pop a pill and forget about it.
Anyway, not sure how this conversation started, but I do think that the niacin/anti-flushing drug will be a big deal.
I won't be taking it because I've never taken a prescription med (aside from Champix) and don't want to start now--particularly because my HDL levels are high enough without drug treatment.
A Wall Street Trader Draws Some Subprime Lessons
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5lhZkEauCu8&refer=columnist_lewis
By Michael Lewis
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- So right after the Bear Stearns funds blew up, I had a thought: This is what happens when you lend money to poor people.
Don't get me wrong: I have nothing personally against the poor. To my knowledge, I have nothing personally to do with the poor at all. It's not personal when a guy cuts your grass: that's business. He does what you say, you pay him. But you don't pay him in advance: That would be finance. And finance is one thing you should never engage in with the poor. (By poor, I mean anyone who the SEC wouldn't allow to invest in my hedge fund.)
That's the biggest lesson I've learned from the subprime crisis. Along the way, as these people have torpedoed my portfolio, I had some other thoughts about the poor. I'll share them with you.
1) They're masters of public relations.
I had no idea how my open-handedness could be made to look, after the fact. At the time I bought the subprime portfolio I thought: This is sort of like my way of giving something back. I didn't expect a profile in Philanthropy Today or anything like that. I mean, I bought at a discount. But I thought people would admire the Wall Street big shot who found a way to help the little guy. Sort of like a money doctor helping a sick person. Then the little guy wheels around and gives me this financial enema. And I'm the one who gets crap in the papers! Everyone feels sorry for the poor, and no one feels sorry for me. Even though it's my money! No good deed goes unpunished.
2) Poor people don't respect other people's money in the way money deserves to be respected.
Call me a romantic: I want everyone to have a shot at the American dream. Even people who haven't earned it. I did everything I could so that these schlubs could at least own their own place. The media is now making my generosity out to be some kind of scandal. Teaser rates weren't a scandal. Teaser rates were a sign of misplaced trust: I trusted these people to get their teams of lawyers to vet anything before they signed it. Turns out, if you're poor, you don't need to pay lawyers. You don't like the deal you just wave your hands in the air and moan about how poor you are. Then you default.
3) I've grown out of touch with ``poor culture.'
Hard to say when this happened; it might have been when I stopped flying commercial. Or maybe it was when I gave up the bleacher seats and got the suite. But the first rule in this business is to know the people you're in business with, and I broke it. People complain about the rich getting richer and the poor being left behind. Is it any wonder? Look at them! Did it ever occur to even one of them that they might pay me back by WORKING HARDER? I don't think so.
But as I say, it was my fault, for not studying the poor more closely before I lent them the money. When the only time you've ever seen a lion is in his cage in the zoo, you start thinking of him as a pet cat. You forget that he wants to eat you.
4) Our society is really, really hostile to success. At the same time it's shockingly indulgent of poor people.
A Republican president now wants to bail them out! I have a different solution. Debtors' prison is obviously a little too retro, and besides that it would just use more taxpayers' money. But the poor could work off their debts. All over Greenwich I see lawns to be mowed, houses to be painted, sports cars to be tuned up. Some of these poor people must have skills. The ones that don't could be trained to do some of the less skilled labor -- say, working as clowns at rich kids' birthday parties. They could even have an act: put them in clown suits and see how many can be stuffed into a Maybach. It'd be like the circus, only better.
Transporting entire neighborhoods of poor people to upper Manhattan and lower Connecticut might seem impractical. It's not: Mexico does this sort of thing routinely. And in the long run it might be for the good of poor people. If the consequences were more serious, maybe they wouldn't stay poor.
5) I think it's time we all become more realistic about letting the poor anywhere near Wall Street.
Lending money to poor countries was a bad idea: Does it make any more sense to lend money to poor people? They don't even have mineral rights!
There's a reason the rich aren't getting richer as fast as they should: they keep getting tangled up with the poor. It's unrealistic to say that Wall Street should cut itself off entirely from poor -- or, if you will, ``mainstream' -- culture. As I say, I'll still do business with the masses. But I'll only engage in their finances if they can clump themselves together into a semblance of a rich person. I'll still accept pension fund money, for example. (Nothing under $50 million, please.) And I'm willing to finance the purchase of entire companies staffed basically with poor people. I did deals with Milken, before they broke him. I own some Blackstone. (Hang tough, Steve!)
But never again will I go one-on-one again with poor people. They're sharks.
(Michael Lewis is the author, most recently of ``The Blind Side,' and is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The views he expresses are his own.)
This is satire, in case you didn't figure it out.
>Flushing is a small price to pay to raise your HDL's 25 points.<
I don't know about that. I tried nonprescription niacin and ended up looking but not feeling like a bride on her wedding night. The sensation was quite uncomfortable. I suspect that if other's experiences are anything like mine they wouldn't adhere to treatment.
north4000--
I don't mind the conversation, and this really is impressive. In fact, I think I need you to deliver an inspirational speech at my next sales rep meeting. They like to see that the products they sell make a real difference, believe it or not.
Maybe JAV will acquire MDCO. Only semi-kidding...if Dyloject and ketamine are successful, and MDCO has any delays for Cleviprex and cangrelor, JAV's market cap will easily exceed that of MDCO.
More realistically, though, I'd like to see MDCO buy JAV. They have some truly spectacular marketers at MDCO; if they acquired JAV's products and kept top management on I would consider buying MDCO.
Too bad their lawyers aren't equally good. Damn shame that Angiomax problem.
And I underestimated MDCO's market cap pre-tragedy. In January, it was about $1.6 billion. Essentially on Angiomax alone. Bodes well for JAV.
How to Find Financial Stocks With Little Liquidity Risk
http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/stockpickr/10377952.html
I'll take some BKCC, please.
Editor's note: This column was submitted by Stockpickr member Arnab Dasgupta.
The broad dislocation of credit and capital markets has resulted in a correction in every group of financial stocks -- banks, specialty finance companies as well as a club of investment vehicles called business development companies.
BDCs invest in middle-market private companies using strategies that generate a steady source of cash flow that is returned to investors in the form of dividends. These vehicles grow more attractive in market environments where liquidity is a concern thanks to the stocks' double-digit dividend yields.
However, the underlying reason for holding these investments in your portfolio is that they have a conservative capital structure relative to peers in the financials space.
As per the Registered Investment Advisor Act of 1940, BDCs are not allowed to carry more than 1:1 leverage. Several financial stocks now face liquidity risk because their collateral is subject to constant repricing leading to margin calls by investment banks. BDCs have secured lines of credit, all of which are non-recourse.
Fundamentally, in this environment they can take advantage of widening credit spreads and invest in higher-yielding assets possessing better risk-adjusted returns, thus improving operating return on equity (ROE) and dividend growth.
Due to the onset of an economic slowdown, credit risk continues to be a potential issue in such companies, and therefore I recommend only those that are invested higher up in the capital structure. For example, the portfolio breakdown should reflect a higher proportion of senior debt compared to subordinated debt.
Also, the names I discuss have above average debt/equity ratios that give them room to raise debt. We can all agree that it is almost impossible to raise equity in a non-dilutive manner in such market conditions.
First, Apollo Investment Group (AINV) is considered by Wall Street to be the most conservatively managed of its peer group. Apollo recently reported fiscal first-quarter net operating income (NOI) of 53 cents a share, 9 cents above consensus. More significantly, no non-accruing loans were reported during the quarter, an improvement from the 1% reported in the previous quarter. 9.2% yield as of 9/07
The company continues to originate investments ahead of consensus estimates, leading analysts to attribute its outperformance to its relationship with erstwhile private-equity manager Apollo Group (APOL) . Relevant metrics include a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.4, price-to-book of 1.1 times and a dividend yield of 9.3%.
Second, there's BlackRock Kelso Capital (BKCC) , which made its public debut in a June 27 initial public offering. This new entrant in the BDC space remains misunderstood. It recently reported second-quarter NOI of 42 cents a share, 3 cents higher than the consensus estimate.
The company is attractive due to its conservative portfolio mix (68% senior secured debt) and support from two strong investment platforms: BlackRock (BLK) and Kelso & Co. Relevant metrics are a debt/equity ratio of 0.57, price/book of 0.8 times (misunderstood!) and a dividend yield of 11.6%. 11.7% yield as of 9/07
Third, Ares Capital (ARCC) recently reported in-line second-quarter results. At the end of the quarter, none of its investments were past due or on a non-accrual basis. Ares has lowered its risk profile considerably in the last few years by adding a higher proportion of secured loans and thus moving its investment portfolio up the capital structure. Its metrics include a debt/equity ratio of 0.5, price/book of 1.0 times, and a dividend yield of 10.2%.
It is worth mentioning that the two names in the space that I do not recommend but that, judging by their premium-to-book value valuations, continue to be investor favorites are Allied Capital (ALD) and American Capital Strategies (ACAS). The market is focused on their dividend coverage, which is currently secure through 2008, but only by realized gain on sale of investments which unlike NOI, is not sustainable. (8.5% and 8.8% yields, respectively)
Their leverage is also the highest in the group, and their financials reveal that their asset quality is inferior evidenced by non-accruals of 6.7% and 4.1% for Allied and American Capital, respectively.
Don't forget they have Cleviprex and cangrelor on deck. Cleviprex--while a good product--isn't going to make them a lot of money, and they're probably going to have a hard time getting it on formularies.
I took "literally waiting for the approval letter right now" to mean that they passed inspection.
It's really unfair that they don't broadcast the breakout sessions; willing to be someone asked that question.
The key in terms of acquisition is whether there are any structural changes that will need to be made to make room for the acquired product. The reason I say MDCO is that they are already hitting *exactly* the right target audiences, have a field force in place, and have long-term relationships with the very physician population that will be buying Dyloject and the ketamine product. Which I wish they would name so I can stop referring to it as the "ketamine product."
OT: JAV
Posted my notes from the webcast on Biotech Values.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22645120
JAV notes
Did not present slides on webcast, so these notes may not be as accurate as usual.
*Plan is to retain N American and select EU territories. In partnering discussions for other territories.
*Emphasized intrinsic safety advantages of nasal administration (saturable absorption)
*Discussed management experience—again, they hired the former FDA division director of the division to which they are applying for approval for all 3 of their products
*Dyloject filed for approval in Europe, awaiting receipt of approval letter now
*In US, accrual completed in first Dyloject pivotal, second accrual has begun.
*Pursuing indications in a graded manner for ketamine product—first Department of Defense/military applications, and civilian emergency use, third and fourth cancer breakthough pain and add-on to opioids (will be pursued through sNDAs)
*Estimated $250 million/year market for Dyloject in US (estimated by subtracting peak from current sales for ketolorac).
*Use of Dyloject over current products over 1.5 days would save hospitals 50 pounds
*Also noted statistical superiority over current products because of rapid onset of efficacy; at 5 min, Dyloject but not ketolorac demonstrated statistically significant pain relief. Summary of differentiating factors: faster onset, equal duration of efficacy, ease of administration, improved side effect profile, clinically meaningful opioid sparing effect
*Ketamine—only drug that does not interfere with pooling mechanism post-trauma. Also does not depress ventilatory drive. Makes it ideal for shock trauma.
*First NDA for ketamine will be filled for acute pain in civilian emergency and military settings. Market research showed serious unmet need in civilian market. Pain relief as early as 4 min after administration. Because the active ingredient is already given in much higher doses (10-fold higher) and there is a large safety database, FDA decided no more trials needed. Currently, PK trials are being conducted. Will file mid-year 2008.
*Rylomine: discussed delivery mechanism, which leaves little residual product for abuse. Suggested that rylomine will compete in injectable market.
*Dyloject: have put in place a number of activities—hired managing director in UK, secured European ad and med ed agencies, taken first steps to establish German office. Impressive positive response from physicians and pharmacists, in terms of ease of use, speed of onset.
*Conservatively estimate G5 peak sales at $75 million.
*Conservatively estimate US sales of $175 million/year.
*Market research for ketamine in civilian emergency setting: 110 million emergency room visits per year, 60%-70% have moderate to severe pain; current standard of treatment is to give small titrated doses of morphine, however, many patients have a medical condition who cannot take morphine because of risk for AEs. Total potential for ketamine—23 million patients, 2 units per patient, works out to $275 million annually in US, does not include potential use in ambulances. Also noted that ketamine-class agents prevent progression to chronic pain.
*Bragged about management again. Which really is pretty impressive, aside from Rick Pierce.
*Noted that Dyloject is stable at room temperature for years…good news as physicians can just stick this in the Pyxis.
JAV notes
Did not present slides on webcast, so these notes may not be as accurate as usual.
Random thoughts:
My overall impression after listening to the webcast is very positive for all three products. I have a reasonably high degree of trust in Carr, as he was the one who chaired the guidelines committee for treating emergency pain. Also have a high degree of confidence in their ability follow through with the FDA, given their staff.
Pretty sure this one is a winner. Either relatively soon (if Dyloject is improved in UK) or within the next year or so. Total market potential for Dyloject and ketamine in the initial indications should be ~$500-650 million and a lot more than that if they can get breakthough cancer pain and opioid add on. Maybe another $50-$100 M for Rylomine WW.
In short, low-risk products with potential for sales up to $1B. As a comparator, look at MDCO, which was supporting a $1B+ market cap on $250 M in sales in Angiomax (before the patent tragedy) and two iffy products in phase III worth maybe $350 M in total. I don't mean iffy in terms of efficacy or safety--just that both clevidipine and cangrelor are novel agents and are therefore at higher regulatory risk than JAV's products.
Plus the market doesn't seem to be assigning any value to takeover potential. JAV represents one of the best targets out there, particularly for a hospital-focused company. Listening MDCO?
*Plan is to retain N American and select EU territories. In partnering discussions for other territories.
*Emphasized intrinsic safety advantages of nasal administration (saturable absorption)
*Discussed management experience—again, they hired the former FDA division director of the division to which they are applying for approval for all 3 of their products
*Dyloject filed for approval in Europe, awaiting receipt of approval letter now
*In US, accrual completed in first Dyloject pivotal, second accrual has begun.
*Pursuing indications in a graded manner for ketamine product—first Department of Defense/military applications, and civilian emergency use, third and fourth cancer breakthough pain and add-on to opioids (will be pursued through sNDAs)
*Estimated $250 million/year market for Dyloject in US (estimated by subtracting peak from current sales for ketolorac).
*Use of Dyloject over current products over 1.5 days would save hospitals 50 pounds
*Also noted statistical superiority over current products because of rapid onset of efficacy; at 5 min, Dyloject but not ketolorac demonstrated statistically significant pain relief. Summary of differentiating factors: faster onset, equal duration of efficacy, ease of administration, improved side effect profile, clinically meaningful opioid sparing effect
*Ketamine—only drug that does not interfere with pooling mechanism post-trauma. Also does not depress ventilatory drive. Makes it ideal for shock trauma.
*First NDA for ketamine will be filled for acute pain in civilian emergency and military settings. Market research showed serious unmet need in civilian market. Pain relief as early as 4 min after administration. Because the active ingredient is already given in much higher doses (10-fold higher) and there is a large safety database, FDA decided no more trials needed. Currently, PK trials are being conducted. Will file mid-year 2008.
*Rylomine: discussed delivery mechanism, which leaves little residual product for abuse. Suggested that rylomine will compete in injectable market.
*Dyloject: have put in place a number of activities—hired managing director in UK, secured European ad and med ed agencies, taken first steps to establish German office. Impressive positive response from physicians and pharmacists, in terms of ease of use, speed of onset.
*Conservatively estimate G5 peak sales at $75 million.
*Conservatively estimate US sales of $175 million/year.
*Market research for ketamine in civilian emergency setting: 110 million emergency room visits per year, 60%-70% have moderate to severe pain; current standard of treatment is to give small titrated doses of morphine, however, many patients have a medical condition who cannot take morphine because of risk for AEs. Total potential for ketamine—23 million patients, 2 units per patient, works out to $275 million annually in US, does not include potential use in ambulances. Also noted that ketamine-class agents prevent progression to chronic pain.
*Bragged about management again. Which really is pretty impressive, aside from Rick Pierce.
*Noted that Dyloject is stable at room temperature for years…good news as physicians can just stick this in the Pyxis.
JAV
Did anyone listen to the conference yet? Nice of them to announce it the morning of.
Whatever they said it must have been relatively good. Time to buy in earnest?
>Any cardiologists or knowlegable folks on statins have any thoughts regarding this UK finding, as well as any other information on this subject.<
Well, I'm not a cardiologist, but I have worked on the clinical, regulatory, and scientific aspects of a broad range of lipid-lowering agents for quite a while now.
It's pretty clear to me that the increase in risk associated with switching from Lipitor to Simvastatin is driven purely by changes in lipid levels rather than something intrinsic to atorvastatin. Simply put, simvastatin is a less effective lipid-lowering agent than Lipitor. You should be fine on Vytorin.
Aha. Still, I doubt we'll see many defaults before our big-brother government does something about it. If the municipal bond market were to fall apart, there'd be serious trouble and I'll be off to New Zealand
Best-case scenario for me is a panic rush out of munis so I can pick some closed-end funds up cheaply.
Analysts Say Drybulk Not Slowing Down
Wednesday September 5, 2:02 pm ET
By Samantha Bomkamp, AP Business Writer
Analysts Say Drybulk Shipping Rates and Sector's Growth Not Slowing in Near-Term
NEW YORK (AP) -- There seem to be no near-term hurdles to slow soaring drybulk charter rates in the near-term, analysts covering the sector said at Wednesday's Dry Bulk Analyst Virtual Forum, organized by investor relations firm Capital Link and NASDAQ International.
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Bear Stearns analyst Scott Burk said the booming Chinese economy driving unprecedented demand for iron ore and coal, coupled with port congestion in Asia and Australia, have kept spot charter rates for drybulk vessels in recent months continually surpassing all-time highs.
And to a lesser extent, cement demand brought on by the construction boom and increased grain exports have also played a role in the historic demand levels for ships to transport the commodities.
The Chinese economy continues to be the most prominent factor in determining drybulk rates, Burk said, and if growth continues as expected, "we could see a 25-year bull market, with some cyclical downturns."
In the meantime, the analyst sees "continued consolidation" in the sector as public companies acquire private fleets.
A key index that covers drybulk shipping rates, the Baltic Dry Index, jumped 183 points Wednesday to close at an all-time high 8,090. The index has set an all-time high with every close since Aug. 27.
It measures rates on 40 shipping routes on a time charter and voyage basis, and is managed by the Baltic Exchange in London.
But with rates continuing to soar and shipbuilders struggling to keep up with the demand, it begs the question: when will the proverbial bubble burst?
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Natasha Boyden expects the number of ships being built and put into service to finally begin to normalize demand levels at the start of 2010.
But until then, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Urs Dur said the sector should continue to experience rates across all drybulk ships at record-breaking levels, as port congestion continues to be a chronic problem and demand still outweighs the number of ships available.
Jefferies & Co. analyst Douglas Mavrinac called the current dry bulk market "unchartered territory," but suggested that when fleet growth "maxes out" or Chinese growth slows, the sector should begin a downturn.
Bear Stearns' Burk added that current credit woes could affect rates if they worsen and develop into a worldwide recession. But the most likely scenario, the analysts agreed, is the eventual slowing of demand through new ship building in 2010 or 2011.
In midday trading, shares of Diana Shipping Inc. rose 6 cents to $27.83, while DryShips Inc. rose $2.10, or 3 percent, to $72.58.
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. added 21 cents to $26.79, while Quintana Maritime fell 21 cents to $18.31.
Excel Maritime Carriers Inc. gained $1.68, or 3.8 percent, to $45.60, and Euroseas Ltd. added 29 cents, or 2 percent, to $14.59.
Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. rose $2.75, or 4.8 percent, to $60.50, while TBS International Ltd. gained $1.19, or 3 percent, to $40.54. Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. rose 26 cents, or 2 percent, to $13.08.
By "number of companies" I assume you're also talking about closed-end funds. True, many use leverage, and it can enhance gains and losses in a big way.
I guess I've been so thoroughly trained by the biotech sector that I see the risks in high-yield investing as (relatively) trivial. Plus I'm planning on keeping a portfolio of between 15 and 20 of these guys, as opposed to the 5 or 6 stocks I usually keep in my biotech portfolio.
Would be interested to hear your recommendations. I am really, really interested in ex-US recommendations, if you've got any.
Yes. I really like B&G Foods--last I checked the yield was around 8.9%. I'm waiting for another market tragedy to take a position, though. There's money in pickles!
Apparently IDSes are primarily a Canadian phenomenon. I'm trying to find a resource that lists Canadian IDSes--any suggestions?
And why is it that the Canadians get so many great income opportunities compared with the US?
JAV
So the moment of reckoning is approaching rapidly. If all is on track the UK approval should be coming within the next week or so, followed shortly thereafter by approval in Germany.
Was running the numbers using some data I acquired from a friend in the pharma industry, and I'm getting potential peak sales in Europe of $70 million, which (remarkably) isn't too far off of the $75 million that JAV's management predicts. Depending on penetration assumptions into the opioid market, the range I got was $65 million to $125 million.
Also spoke with some colleagues in the UK who think that uptake will be pretty quick, primarily because of a pretty huge convenience/throughput advantage.
The Top 350 Monthly Dividend Stocks
Old but moderately interesting for a Seeking Alpha article. I fixed a few of the grammatical mistakes as they were making my eyes bleed. Although all of the stocks mentioned below are interesting, I highlighted a few that I am going to further investigate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070817/44892_id.html?.v=1
Friday August 17, 1:10 pm ET
Stockerblog submits: There are over 350 stocks that pay their dividends monthly. Conservative investors love these investments for several reasons: they get their return of capital back faster, they can compound faster, the income coincides with their monthly expenses, they are more liquid than individual corporate or municipal bonds, there is no minimum investment allowing them greater diversification, and there is the potential for capital appreciation for some of these stocks. To get a downloadable list of all the monthly dividend stocks that you can open in Excel which you can sort, add to, delete from, or change, go to WallStreetNewsNetwork.com.
There are some caveats you should be aware of. For purposes of this article, it is assumed that exchange traded funds [ETFs], real estate investment trusts [REITs], and Canadian oil income royalty trusts are considered stocks. Dividends are always subject to change and reduction, including changes in payment schedules from monthly to quarterly. The principal can also drop, by even more than the amount of the income received. The information on these stocks was gathered over the past couple weeks, so obviously some yields have changed during that time frame.
Some of these stocks are extremely speculative, and high yield does not mean safe. The Canadian royalty trusts have special tax issues that you should be aware of, especially if you are planning on putting them in a retirement plan. A Canadian law which goes into effect in 2011 can affect the price and income of the Canadian stocks.
Remember, these are monthly dividend stocks, in case you are wondering why your quarterly dividend stock does not appear on the list. I’ve extracted the top eight from the list, including the highest yielding from various categories, such as tax-free, real estate oriented, and Canadian royalty trusts.
RMK Strategic Income Fund (NYSE: RSF - News), is at the top of this list in terms of yield, and probably in terms of risk. It yields 24.9%. This is a closed-end fund which is extremely speculative due to its portfolio holdings which include home equity loans, commercial loans, franchise loans, equipment leases, manufactured housing, common stocks, collateralized debt obligations, certificate-backed obligations, and collateralized mortgage obligations. The company has been paying $0.14 per month for the last nine months, which is down from $0.15 per month last year. I personally don’t think the dividend is sustainable. [Probably not. I wouldn't touch this with a 10-foot pole.
Pengrowth Energy Trust (NYSE: PGH - News) is the highest yielding monthly Canadian oil royalty income trust, with a yield of 16.2%. It owns and operates interests in oil and natural gas properties in Canada. It has increased its monthly dividend for the last two months, and the dividend is the highest it has ever been in the last three years. The price earnings ratio, for what it is worth, is 13.6.
Boulder Growth & Income Fund Inc. (NYSE: BIF - News), is the highest yielding monthly growth and income fund, and yields 14.1%. This CEF invests in common stocks in both the U.S. and outside the U.S., warrants, corporate bonds, treasury bills, and repurchase agreements. It was founded in 1972, and is co-managed by Boulder Investment Advisers, and Stewart Investment Advisers.
Neuberger Berman Real Estate Securities Income Fund Inc. (AMEX: NRO - News), is the highest yielding monthly real estate CEF, as opposed to a REIT. The fund, with yields 13.6%, invests in real estate investment trusts, and other real estate stocks. It has paid its dividend monthly since their inception in 2003, and recently raised its dividend in May of this year.
Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR - News), is the highest yield American royalty trust, with a yield of 13.2%. Mesa, which is based in Austin, Texas, owns oil and gas royalty interests in Kansas, New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming. It has been paying monthly dividends since 1988. Note that these dividends are not qualified for the 15% rate, though.
The New America High Income Fund Inc. (NYSE: HYB - News), is the top yielding monthly bond CEF, and yields 12.8%. Its portfolio holds below investment grade corporate bonds. It has paid monthly dividends since April 1988.
The Calamos Convertible Opportunities & Income Fund (NYSE: CHI - News), is the highest yielding convertible fund, and generates a yield of 11.7%. It invests in convertible bonds, and regular bonds of all ratings. It has paid its monthly dividends since August 2002.
BlackRock Municipal Income Trust (NYSE: BFK - News) is the highest yielding municipal bond CEF, with a 6.8% yield. It invests at least 80% of its portfolio in municipal bonds that are investment-grade quality, and up to 20% in lower grade munis. It has paid monthly dividends since September of 2001. I already own scads of this.
Dry Bulk Shippers
And in case you missed it, the previous press release provides a handy list of all listed dry bulk shippers. No endorsement implied, and I did not check the yields on all of these stocks.
The biggest problem here is that lots of capacity is coming on line over the next few years. I suspect there will be substantial consolidation in this industry.
Note that dry bulk is considered a completely separate sector from oil tankers (that's why FRO et al aren't listed here).
US Listed
Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX)
DryShips (NasdaqGS:DRYS)
Eagle Bulk (NasdaqGS:EGLE)
Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM)
Euroseas (NasdaqGM:ESEA)
FreeSeas (NasdaqCM:FREE)
Genco Shipping (NYSE:GNK)
Navios Maritime (NYSE:NM)
OceanFreight (NasdaqGM:OCNF)
Paragon Shipping (PRGN)
Quintana Maritime (NasdaqGS:QMAR)
TBS International (NasdaqGM:TBSI)
London listed
Goldenport (LSE:GPRT.L)
Globus Maritime (AIM: GLBS)
Global Oceanic Carriers (AIM: GOC)
Analyst Panel Discussion on the Dry Bulk Sector
Wednesday, September 5, 2007 - 11:00 am EDT
Live Audio Webcast at www.CapitalLinkShipping.com
Yes, I know it doesn't have the je ne sais quois of an announcement of an FDA approval. But this sector has historically been among the highest-yielding. I will post the transcript here when it is available.
Shipping Analysts from Bear Stearns (Scott Burk), Cantor Fitzgerald (Natasha Boyden), Jefferies & Company (Douglas Mavrinac) and Lazard Capital Markets (Urs Dur) will participate in a Virtual Panel discussion on the dry bulk shipping sector on Wednesday, September 5, 200 at 11:00 am EDT.
The Dry Bulk Analyst Virtual Forum is organized by Capital Link, a New York based Investor Relations and Financial Communications firm with strategic focus on shipping, in cooperation with NASDAQ International.
The panel discussion can be accessed only through a live audio webcast on Capital Link's Shipping website at www.CapitalLinkShipping.com, where it will remain archived afterwards.
The panel discussion will be moderated by Isabella Schidrich, Managing Director of NASDAQ International. The focus of the discussion (and the Q&A) will be on sector trends and fundamentals, as opposed to company recommendations. The discussion will cover four main topics: demand, supply, freight rates and asset values, and valuations, focusing on current trends and the sector's outlook.
Participants can submit questions to the analysts prior to or during the event through the special event page at www.CapitalLinkShipping.com Like, "How have I become so pathetic that a panel discussion on dry bulk shipping actually interests me?"
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript of the panel discussion will be publicly available within approximately 48 hours after the event and those interested can request a copy of it through www.CapitalLinkShipping.com.
About Dry Bulk Shipping:
International shipping plays a vital role in global trade given that 2/3 of the world's goods are transported by sea. The shipping industry provides a cost effective and practical means of transportation internationally of large volumes of cargoes.
The dry bulk carrier market refers to the transportation of homogeneous commodities in bulk. Dry bulk commodities are divided into two distinct categories, major bulks and minor bulks. Major bulks include iron ore, coal and grain, which are usually shipped on the larger size Capesize and Panamax vessels and comprise about 67% of dry bulk trade. Minor bulks are fertilizers, steels, sugars, cement etc., which are shipped in smaller more versatile vessels such as Handymax and Handysize, and comprise about 33% of the dry bulk commodities trade.
Dry bulk carrier ownership is fragmented with many owners and operators of shipping tonnage, including independent operators, state-controlled shipping companies and proprietary owners. Vessels utilised for transport of dry bulk cargoes are usually classified into four categories based on their carrying capacity in deadweight tons (DWT) (i) handysize (10,000-39,999 DWT) (ii) handymax/supramax (40,000-59,999 DWT) (iii) panamax (60,000-99,999 DWT) and (iv) capesize (higher than 100,000 DWT).
The shipping industry is highly cyclical, experiencing volatility in profitability, vessel values and charter rates resulting from changes in the supply of and demand for shipping capacity. Fluctuations result from the interaction of various factors between demand and supply. The demand for vessels is influenced by global and regional economic conditions, international trade developments, port congestion, trading routes and weather pattern changes, crop yields, armed conflicts, political developments, embargoes and strikes, demand for consumer goods, dry bulk commodities, and crude oil and oil products.
Supply of shipping capacity is mainly a function of the delivery of new vessels and the number of older vessels scrapped and is also affected, among other factors, by port congestion and regulation of maritime transportation practices by governmental and international authorities.
Dry bulk companies listed on US Exchanges include Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX - News), DryShips (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News), Eagle Bulk (NasdaqGS:EGLE - News), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM - News), Euroseas (NasdaqGM:ESEA - News), FreeSeas (NasdaqCM:FREE - News), Genco Shipping (NYSE:GNK - News), Navios Maritime (NYSE:NM - News), OceanFreight (NasdaqGM:OCNF - News), Paragon Shipping (PRGN - News), Quintana Maritime (NasdaqGS:QMAR - News), TBS International (NasdaqGM:TBSI - News). Dry bulk companies listed in London include Goldenport (LSE:GPRT.L - News), Globus Maritime (AIM: GLBS), Global Oceanic Carriers (AIM: GOC).
YMI
Yes, YMI
Ym Biosciences Announces Positive Preliminary Results From Phase I/II Lung Cancer Trial of Nimotuzumab Combined With Radiation
Tuesday September 4, 5:02 pm ET
Data Presented at the 12th World Conference on Lung Cancer in Seoul, Korea
MISSISSAUGA, ON, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - YM BioSciences Inc. (AMEX: YMI, TSX: YM, AIM: YMBA), an oncology company that identifies, develops and commercializes differentiated products for patients worldwide, today announced positive preliminary results from the first two cohorts of the Phase I part of a Phase I/II trial of nimotuzumab in combination with radiation for the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who are unsuitable for radical chemotherapy. The data were reported on September 5th in a poster presentation at the 12th World Conference on Lung Cancer in Seoul, Korea. Nimotuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody that targets the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR).
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"While preliminary, these results are compelling because we observed clinical benefit (Partial Response or Stable Disease) in every one of the 13 patients so far enrolled in this study. A study by The National Cancer Institute of Canada demonstrated that patients with advanced NSCLC with Stable Disease as best response for treatment had Overall Survival similar to patients with Partial Response. The relatively long survival times observed in the first cohort of this trial are encouraging and are in agreement with the NCIC observations," said Dr. Igor Sherman, YM's Director of Clinical Research. "Although nimotuzumab specifically targets the EGF receptor, the reported absence of side effects, particularly the absence of severe rash, makes nimotuzumab therapeutically attractive in this setting."
The Phase I component enrolled patients at three centers in Canada and is evaluating the safety and feasibility of administrating nimotuzumab at three dose levels (100mg, 200mg and 400mg weekly) with palliative radiation (30 Gy in 10 fractions). The data will be used to select the optimal effective dose for the randomized Phase II component of the study, in which Overall Survival will be the primary endpoint.
Of the six patients enrolled in the 1st cohort (100mg), four Partial Response (PR) and two Stable Disease (SD) were reported as at August 14, 2007. Median Overall Survival of the group was 41.5 weeks. All patients ultimately progressed. Two severe adverse events have been reported, neither causally attributable to nimotuzumab. A notable absence of grade III/IV rash or diarrhea in this cohort was reported.
Of the seven patients enrolled in the 2nd cohort (200mg) of the study, two PR and five SD were reported as at August 14, 2007 Median overall survival of the group has not been reached but currently exceeds 25 weeks. There has been a notable absence of grade III/IV rash or diarrhea reported in this cohort.
Enrolment is now ongoing into the third cohort, to be treated at 400 mg per dose level, and accrual is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2007.
YM is conducting the trial in Canada and Kuhnil Pharmaceutical Co. is conducting a parallel trial in Korea with a common protocol. This structure is designed to accelerate overall recruitment and lower the costs to the participants. The interim report from Phase I Korean patients is anticipated early in 2008.
The poster presentation is entitled "Preliminary Results Of An Escalating Dose (Phase I /II Clinical) Trial Of The Anti EGFR Monoclonal Antibody Nimotuzumab In Combination With External Radiotherapy In Patients Diagnosed With Stage IIB, III or IV NSCLC Unsuitable For Radical Therapy" by Gwyn Bebb, Colum Smith, Anthony Brade, Stewart Rorke and Igor Sherman. The poster, P3 - 023, will be on display on September 5 & 6 at Atlantic Halls 5 - 8 in poster session 3 - Novel Therapeutics: Molecular Therapeutics.
Nimotuzumab
Nimotuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody that targets the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). To date nimotuzumab has been administered to approximately 900 patients in more than a dozen clinical trials and on a compassionate basis. It has been approved in several countries and is being provided on a compassionate basis in certain countries including Canada, Germany and Australia. The drug continues to demonstrate a significantly superior side-effect profile compared to all the other EGFR-targeting antibodies and small molecules targeting the EGF tyrosine kinase signalling pathway. The absence of any cases of severe rash to date and the very rare instances of any of the other debilitating side effects holds the prospect for nimotuzumab to become best-in-class for this important family of EGFR-targeting agents.
I think you guys are all crazy for trying to assign an ultimate value to RPRX. If we assign a 50% probability to each of the binary events that have to be successful to get to some of these ridiculous valuations, you're talking about incredibly low probability.
I *never* worry about ultimate, best-case valuation when I'm making a biotech investment. Instead, I take it one step at a time. For example, what's the probability and incremental value for a positive decision on QoL end points?
I have little doubt there have already been significant expressions of interest in acquiring the company. My view is that this company needs to be brought up to a $500 to $750 million market cap, and then it gets taken out at a 40% to 60% premium.
You're never going to see $120/share, much less $240. RPRX will be gone long before that.
HTE & Other Energy Canroys...
Are taking off today, probably as a result of the bump in oil prices.
Have to admit this whole income investment thing still feels foreign to me after many years in biotech. I'm actually disappointed that HTE is taking off because it means a lower yield for follow-on investments. I feel conflicted.
Nice to see you here. Please feel free to add to the list and repost. Just cut and paste the old list into a new message, add the new stocks with yield info, and note what you've added. Otherwise I'll try to keep track and add things weekly. I'll update the I-Box as necessary to link to the list.
There's a very good reason for the marked decline in all Canroys. In the fall of last year, the Canadian government decided that it was going to start taxing Canroys as regular business entities beginning in 2011.
The prices of Canroys took a major hit at that time, which is kind of stupid because you still get 4 years of excellent dividends, plus if you buy one that's a high yielder now, with a reasonably low payout ratio, it's likely that even with the additional tax burden your dividend won't take much of a hit.
HTE
I also own a Canroy--HTE (Harvest Energy Trust). It is currently yielding about 16.9% or about Can$0.38/share monthly. What is particularly enticing about this stock is that the payout ratio is around 67%, which means that for a Canroy they're reinvesting plenty in the underlying business, and there's also the potential for increasing the dividend.
No Canroy is worth investing in if you're doing your own taxes or if you can't afford to put in a substantial sum, though. You have to file a whole bunch of forms to get the 15% Canadian withholding back.
What's the payout ratio for PGH? I look for Canroys with payout ratios <75%.
Top 25 Quotes on the Credit Crisis of '07
And that's it for me today...I only have enough brain cells to cut n' paste today
____________________
1. In one way, I'm sympathetic to the institutional reluctance to face the music. I'd give a lot to mark my weight to 'model' rather than to 'market.' - Warren Buffett, Fortune, 8/16/07 (On the financial institution practice of valuing subprime assets on the basis of a computer model rather than the free market price.)
2. The Federal Reserve was not founded to bail out Bear Stearns or a few hedge funds. It was founded to keep a stable currency and maintain its value. - Jim Rogers, Rogers Commodity Fund
3. For the second time in seven years, the bursting of a major-asset bubble has inflicted great damage on world financial markets. In both cases--the equity bubble in 2000 and the credit bubble in 2007--central banks were asleep at the switch. The lack of monetary discipline has become a hallmark of unfettered globalization. Central banks have failed to provide a stable underpinning to world financial markets and to an increasingly asset-dependent global economy. - Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
4. There is a lot of pain still to be had in the equity markets, particularly aimed at the risky end of the spectrum. We think the fair value on the market is about a third lower in the U.S. . . - Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Mayo and Van Otterloo
5. Suddenly, the world is realizing that gold is still a safe haven asset. We've seen pretty substantial losses in equity markets. I think this is genuine safe-haven buying. - James Moore, theBullionDesk
6. I think Greenspan would have cut rates already. So I do think things are beginning to look different at the Fed. - Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust
7. At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. - Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007
8. "If prices go down, we will have problems -- problems in the sense of spillover to other areas," Greenspan said. While he hasn't seen such spreading yet, "I expect to." - Former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, speech, March, 2007 as reported by Bloomberg.com
9. This is not a rescue. - Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar after Goldman poured $3 billion into one of its hedge funds
10. This is a sort of preemptive rescue. - Eric Kuby, chief investment officer for the Goldman fund mentioned
11. When you're in a pit, the first thing to do is to stop digging. - James Ellman, Seacliffe Capital
12. The US financial system is teetering. Flood of foreclosuresIts USDollar currency is losing global support, with some outright revolts in crucial territories. The chief private sector export from the US financial sector has been fraud-ridden asset-backed bonds and their toxic credit derivatives. What should anyone expect? For years an institutional dishonesty within all things financial in the United States has been engrained, spreading, and become integrated with high levels of the USGovt. The Wall Street hucksters exported fraud. The backlash might be more severe than the soft soap gurus anticipate. Look for an international boycott. The shock waves in the US financial markets are preliminary symptoms of bigger events soon to come. Stability identified is nothing but quiet between tremors. - Jim Willie, Hat Trick Letter
13. The German banks' situation is not uncritical. - Alexander Stuhlmann, Germany's Landesbank
14. After all, in a credit crunch, cash is deemed to be king. In which case, gold owned outright has just been crowned emperor. - Adrian Ash, BullionVault
15. [C]apitalism without financial failure is not capitalism at all, but a kind of socialism for the rich. - James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer
16. US sub-prime is just the leading edge of a financial hurricane. - Bernard Connolly, AIG
17. When the music stops in terms of liquidity, things will get complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing. - Chuck Prince, Citigroup
18. Why is it possible to rescue S&L buccaneers in the early '90s and provide guidance to levered Wall Street investment bankers during the 1998 long-term capital management crisis, yet throw 2 million homeowners to the wolves in 2007? - Bill Gross, Pimco
19. So perhaps the most worrying single remark made by a responsible banking official during the current crisis came from Jochen Sanio, the head of Germany's banking regulator BaFin. He warned on Aug. 1 that his country could be facing the worst banking crisis since 1931 -- a reference to the collapse of Austria's Kredit Anstalt, which provoked a wave of bank failures across Europe. - Martin Walker, United Press InternationalForeclosed
20. Angelo Mozilo, chief executive of Countrywide Financial Corp, which is one of the chief victims of the sub-prime home loan debacle, said the housing crisis was the result of "one of the greatest panics I have ever seen". When asked if housing would lead the US into a recession, he said: "I can't believe ... that this doesn't have a material effect ... on the psyches of the American people and eventually on their wallet." - Phillip Inman, The Guardian
21. As calamitous as the sub-prime blowup seems, it is only the beginning. The credit bubble spawned abuses throughout the system. Sub-prime lending just happened to be the most egregious of the lot, and thus the first to have the cockroaches scurrying out in plain view. The housing market will collapse. New-home construction will collapse. Consumer pocketbooks will be pinched. The consumer spending binge will be over. The U.S. economy will enter a recession." - Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management
22. The U.S. economy, once the envy of the world, is now viewed across the globe with suspicion. America has become shackled by an immovable mountain of debt that endangers its prosperity and threatens to bring the rest of the world economy crashing down with it. The ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, a result of irresponsible lending policies designed to generate commissions for unscrupulous brokers, presages far deeper problems in a U.S. economy that is beginning to resemble a giant smoke-and-mirrors Ponzi scheme. And this has not been lost on the rest of the world. - Hamid Varzi, International Tribune
23. It's a crisis if everybody calls it a crisis. - Morgan Downey, Lasalle Global
24. It's inappropriate [for money market funds to invest in credit derivatives]. It doesn't have a place in money market funds. When I created the first money market fund, I said you have to have immediate liquidity, safety and a reasonable rate of return. You also have to have a situation where you're not giving people headline risk. - David Evans
25. The crisis in the US sub-prime mortgage market could bolster the gold price not only because gold provides a safe investment haven. The crisis is expected to slow GDP growth, spurring lower real interest rates and a weaker US dollar that will boost gold investment demand. Gold's traditional role as a safe haven asset in times of financial turbulence and instability is enforced in the current market as the metal recouped the majority of losses which occurred in a flight to cash in the beginning of August. Supporting this view is the fact that gold recovered despite a rise in the US dollar caused by a European Central bank intervention that boosted liquidity in Europe. - Dr. Peter Richardson, Craton Capital
Final Word
While compiling the quotes for this article, I could not help but note an irony: The most severe test of the Federal Reserve in the modern era dates almost 100 years to the day from the Panic of 1907 - the credit crisis that instigated the Fed's founding. The Panic of 1907 was characterized by bank runs and a stock market crash as investors fled the financial system. The current crisis, though it has produced similar results, is a much more complex and wilder breed of cat. Market commentator Henry K. Liu, offers a keen insight: "With the daily volume of transactions in the hundreds of trillions of dollars in notional value of over-the-counter derivatives, the Fed would have to inject funds at a much more massive scale to affect the market. Such massive injection would mean immediate and sharp inflation. Worse yet, it would cause a collapse of the dollar." Unpredictable circumstances such as these speak compellingly for gold ownership which, by the way, proved to be just as effective a safe haven in the Panic of 1907 as it is likely to be now.
Market Volatility for Dummies
From the New York Times.
When Bulls and Bears Act Unruly on a Seesaw
By FLOYD NORRIS
Does it make sense for stock prices to plunge one day and soar the next, with little in the way of new information to explain either move?
Maybe not, but it happened this week, just as it did earlier in August. It was the first time in more than four years that the American stock market experienced such wild swings, and could be a harbinger of a reversal of direction in either the stock market or the economy, or both.
Or it could just show that changes in the financial system have left many investors confused about what is going on.
In the past, such wild swings have sometimes indicated that markets were turning in a new direction. In retrospect, there seem to be good reasons for the turnaround. But at the time, there were also plenty of investors who believed that the prevailing trend was sure to continue and jumped in to drive prices in the old direction.
In September 1974, with the economy in a severe recession and the stock market in the worst bear market since the Depression, there was a string of sharp, contradictory moves. Share prices hit bottom in early October, and a strong recovery followed.
In 2000, the bull market was going strong, led by the technology stocks that had soared and made many traders feel rich. The first big reversal came in January, with prices plunging one day and recovering the next. It happened again in April, and again in October. The Internet bubble was finally deflating, and a prolonged bear market was beginning.
By 2002, investors were as depressed as they had been in a generation. The 2001 recession was over, but that was not clear. A series of summer reversals signaled that a bottom was near, and was followed by more reversals in October, November and the following March. The bull market had revived.
But while such reversals can signal major market moves, they can also occur when markets are stirred by changes that leave many investors simply perplexed. The 1987 crash, which seemed at the time to warn of impending recession, now appears to have been caused by a new investment strategy involving stock index futures that led to major selling after the first decline. The strategy, called portfolio insurance, decimated portfolios, but it did not reflect what was going on in the economy. Aided by quick action on the part of the Federal Reserve, the next recession was still three years away.
Similarly, reversals in 1997 and 1998 came amid an Asian credit crisis, a Russian default on debt and problems with a hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, whose strategies were not as brilliant as its founders had believed. But they did not presage an end to the 1990s bull market.
This year’s sharp moves have come as investors vacillated over how extensive the effects of the subprime mortgage problems will be. Those problems have led to a sharp contraction of credit markets and to difficulties for a number of hedge funds, but it is unclear if the crisis will also bring on a recession and end a bull market that has sent most stocks well above the highs they reached in 2000.
To some traders, it is ridiculous to expect the entire economy to falter because of problems in the subprime mortgage market. That market is, as President Bush put it yesterday, “modest in relation to the size of our economy,” and the world economy remains strong.
Others are convinced that tighter credit standards will force American consumers to curtail spending, slowing the economy and damaging corporate profits. It is from such contradictory beliefs that the wild days of August sprang.
Subprime lending crisis-the Economist's take on GWB's measures
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9748077
WHEN the American president heads for his White House Rose Garden, you know something big is up. On Friday August 31st George Bush made his way out there to launch a package of measures aimed at America's subprime mortgage-lending crisis. A rising tide of defaults among borrowers with shaky credit histories has, thanks to the way that their debts have been securitised and sold on globally, triggered chaos in the world's credit markets as asset-holders struggle to re-evaluate their risk. But Mr Bush's intervention was aimed not so much at the turbulent markets but at the original borrowers.
The reasons for this are political, not economic. The fate of America's struggling homeowners has become a hot electoral issue, and the Democrats have been cleaning up on it. The main contenders for the presidency have all excoriated the administration for failing to protect the little guy from the consequences of his borrowing.
Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, has compared the subprime crisis to the terrible savings-and-loans scandals of the early 1980s, and demanded action to protect borrowers and to police lenders. Now, with Congress about to return from its summer recess next week and the 2008 election cycle beginning in true earnest, the president appears to be acting to try and neutralise mortgages as a political issue that could add to the Republicans' woes next year.
Mr Bush plans to allow more people to tap into federally funded insurance schemes. But only if they can show that they have fallen behind with their interest payments because of interest-rate rises. This is the situation of many people who took out short-term fixed-rate mortgages which are starting to expire and will now attract sharply increased payments because interest rates have increased in the interval. In July, the foreclosure rate was almost double what it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, which follows the property market. He also proposes to improve the tax position of individuals who renegotiate their mortgages with their creditors, which can now expose them to a unwelcome tax liability.
Mr Bush also announced a foreclosure-avoidance initiative that will encourage various bodies, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored mortgage lenders, to help homeowners avoid insolvency. And he chipped in with other plans to improve financial literacy. A large part of the problem has resulted from people being lured into loans that they cannot afford. Opaque and complicated mortgage products offered seductively low initial rates that soon leaped up. Mr Bush had little to say about what might be done to improve these matters. The Democrats will be sure to dismiss all this as far too little, and rather too late.
One reason for the president's caution on helping borrowers or lenders is that he was being careful to avoid anything that smacks of the b-word. Announcing his plan to help homeowners, Mr Bush said that “the government's got a role to play—but it is limited…It's not the government's job to bail out speculators or those who made the decision to buy a home they couldn't afford.''
Beyond promising that a Treasury panel would look into the whole question of the securitisation of mortgages, he said nothing much aimed at the wider credit markets. But solace for the markets did come from another source though. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, pledged that the Fed is ready to take "additional actions as needed" to provide liquidity to the markets.
The Big List of High-Yield Investments
This list does not constitute an endorsement. Please feel free to add and repost. Yield information is current as of Sept 3, 2007
All stocks posted as Symbol Name Yield
AAV ADVANTAGE ENERGY FD 14.80%
ABR ARBOR REALTY TR 13.00%
ADVDX ALPINE DYNAMIC DIVIDEND FUND 14.0%
AGD ALPINE GLOBAL DYNAMI 9.20%
AINV APOLLO INVESTMENT CO 9.50%
AOD ALPINE TOTAL DYNAMIC 9.3%
APU AMERIGAS PARTNERS LP 9.90%
ARCC ARES CAPITAL CORP 10.50%
AWP ALPINE GBL PRMR PROP -
BEP S&P 500 CVRD CALL FD 11.50%
BFK BLACKROCK MUN INC TR 6.40%
BGF B&G FOODS INC. EIS 8.5%
BKCC BLACKROCK KELSO CAPI 11.50%
BKN BLACKROCK INV MUNI 6.30%
BNY BLACKROCK NY MUN INC 5.50%
BPT B P PRUDHOE BAY UTS 11.40%
BRT B R T REALTY TRUST 12.20%
BSD BLACKROCK ST MUNI TR 6.50%
BTE BAYTEX ENERGY TR UTS 12.00%
CHI CALAMOS CV OPP & INC 11.10%
CNE CANETIC RESOURCES TR 15.60%
CPL CPFL ENERGIA SA ADS 10.00%
CSE CAPITALSOURCE INC 13.70%
CVP CENTERPLATE INC IDS N/A
DCA DIV CAP RTY INC FD 12.10%
DMLP DORCHESTER MINLS 9.20%
DOM DOMINION RES WARR TR 13.80%
DSX DIANA SHIPPING INC. 7.80%
EBI EVGRN INTL BAL INCM 8.60%
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING 7.30%
ERF ENERPLUS RES FD 11.70%
ERH EVERGREEN UTILITIES 10.20%
FHI 1ST TR STR HI INC FD 12.50%
FRO FRONTLINE LTD 13.00%
HTE HARVEST ENERGY TRUST 16.90%
HYB NEW AMER HIG INCM FD 10.80%
JDD NUVEEN DI DIV & INC 9.60%
JGT NUVEEN MUL-CUR ST GV -
JLA NUVEEN EQ PRM ADV FD 10.20%
JSN NUVEEN EQ PREM OP FD 10.20%
MFD MACQUARIE FIRST GLBL 12.70%
NCZ NICHOLAS -APP CONV & 10.20%
NRI NEUBERGER BRMN RLTY 12.60%
PFN PIMCO FL RT STGY FND 10.30%
PHF PACHOLDER HI YLD FD 10.10%
PHK PIMCO HIGH INCOME FD 10.40%
PHT PIONEER HIGH INC TR 10.20%
PIPDX PIMCO INTL STKPLUS TR STRATEGY 13.4%
RDR RMR PFD DIVIDEND FD 12.20%
SFL SHIP FINC INTL 8.20%
SJT SAN JUAN BASIN ROYAL 9.70%
TAR TELEFONICA ARG NEW 13.60%
TRMD AKTIESELSKABET DAM 11.90%
New board--YIELD
By popular demand, I've created a high-yield/macroeconomic board. Be the first to post and win a prize!
Need a comoderator.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=10359