Repros Therapeutics, Inc. (RPRX)

[rfj1862]

I think you guys are all crazy for trying to assign an ultimate value to RPRX. If we assign a 50% probability to each of the binary events that have to be successful to get to some of these ridiculous valuations, you're talking about incredibly low probability.

I *never* worry about ultimate, best-case valuation when I'm making a biotech investment. Instead, I take it one step at a time. For example, what's the probability and incremental value for a positive decision on QoL end points?

I have little doubt there have already been significant expressions of interest in acquiring the company. My view is that this company needs to be brought up to a $500 to $750 million market cap, and then it gets taken out at a 40% to 60% premium.

You're never going to see $120/share, much less $240. RPRX will be gone long before that.