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Agreed. And that statement by Missling was made IN THE SAME CONVERSATION as the announcement about phase 2/3. He said they were going to do a phase 2/3 for AD, phase 2 for Retts which could be pivotal depending on FDA, and phase 2 for PD. Then in the next breath he said they were fully funded for 2 years.
Just quit being antsy and calm down. The next phase will start when it is time and not a moment sooner. Being impatient will not make it come any sooner. We are sitting on a gold mine waiting for great catalysts that will launch us to orbit.
If 2-73 reverses AD, and receives approval...we'd be worth more like $800 or more per share.
Within a few years I can see AVXL buying up these small-time players like ARIA & BIIB. Their meds could serve a purpose in being an add-in to the real SOC which by then will be 2-73. And not for AD only, but a multitude of CNS disorders.
Maybe they will use their inferior treatments or maybe they will just buy them, harvest the good nuggets from their pipelines, and put them out to pasture.
25 patients who all suddenly have a complete halt to their symptoms, and in some cases a slight reversal of symptoms, is VERY important and meaningful.
As this truth dawns on those who have taken a short position, we will see an increase in agents of FUD. Pretending to be enlightened, concerned, wise advisors...all the while carefully choosing their words in order to try to create doubt for long investors. Very underhanded tactic.
They will not get bought out for 10X. They will not sell out at this point. It would be the dumbest thing a company has ever done.
Right now AVXL is not for sale!! Once we get another year or so down the road MAYBE we will entertain offers... but they would be starting in the tens of billions. But I seriously doubt that they will ever sell out. Too much potential upside, and very few could afford them in another year or two.
True, but NEVER,NEVER,NEVER has a current drug or even a drug candidate had results that were as spectacular as 2-73...even the SOC pales in comparison...
...but, yes, there is still a long road ahead. Things couldn't look better at this point though.
So, according to the latest census, there are about 4,000,000 births in the US each year. So we can assume about 2,000,000 female infants.
If one in 15,000 of these will suffer from Retts, that makes the number of new patients about 130/year.
That truly is a small market. I'm glad it is small though. I don't want to see a single baby suffer from this sad condition. It breaks my heart to see it.
From Anavex's business perspective, how would approval for Retts affect 2-73's situation as it relates to other indications?
What is the market size for Retts?
Interesting...
So they are already publishing an abstract that says 15-month data shows stabilization of MMSE scores through 15 months. That's amazing!
Aren't we at the 15-month point as we speak? Is the new data crunching method that they are utilizing that fast??!?
Agreed
I agree. Right now there is nobody who would risk $10B on AVXL. However, in 6-12 months from now (assuming continued good data) it will be worth that much.
Why on earth would anyone want to sell today for 1/3 the amount that we can demand in 6-12 months?!?
In fact, why would we sell ever??! We have the $$ on hand right now to run phase 2/3 ourselves. We keep all the profit.
$3B-$4B would be tragically undervalued. There is way too much potential here to settle for pennies on the dollar.
$10B should start a conversation. It would be a shame for them to sell out for less than that.
I think the two sides would be way too far apart to get serious negotiations going at this point. Once phase 2/3 data starts trickling in the BP bidders will see the writing on the wall and the checkbooks will come out.
Starting bid would necessarily need to be AT LEAST in the $10B+ neighborhood to be seriously entertained by AVXL.
Longs can't lose!
Up day tomorrow...cha-ching!!
Down day tomorrow...ADD!!
what if they simply left out a word by accident??
i.e.
"Roundtable 4: Partnerships- successful collaboration between a rare disease "FOUNDATION" and a pharmaceutical company to advance preclinical and clinical research in Rett Syndrome"
If it is simply a typo, the pharmaceutical company could be Anavex and the rare disease foundation could be the Retts Foundation.
Why the delay getting Rett Syndrome trial started??
Perhaps it is carefully thought out to maximize profits for shareholders. If 2-73 had started Rett trials this year it would probably have been approved right around now. That means that the 7 years of patent protection for 2-73 as an orphan drug would start now also. But it is going to be at least another year to 18 months till 2-73 as an AD treatment is approved. That means we would miss out on a whole year or more of AD sales.
I think they are trying to get the approvals for Rett and AD to happen very close together. That way we get a whole 7 years of AD sales all for Anavex.
I agree, but not till phase 3 is well underway AND we get through Retts trial.
That...or we get a partner who brings a rush of enthusiastic investors/tutes.
There is no reason for a company who has not even entered phase 3 to be worth $1B. Usually it would be valued at $300M or so ONCE PHASE 3 STARTS. Given the fact that we are talking about AD...maybe you could argue that $500M is appropriate.
That's the real world.
BTD should be in process as we speak. The 60-day MAXIMUM review period means we should expect news about BTD by Feb at the latest.
Macfarlane said EARLY next year they will begin AD 2/3 trial. Not long to go now. I'd think Parkinson's and Retts would get going before AD. Lots of good things going to happen very soon!
As far as AF goes....
Speaking realistically...Our MC should be in the $300M range right now.
Sounds like they have the means to go it alone if they want. No partner required necessarily.
That's good news. Now we can keep all the profits for ourselves.
As Missling has repeatedly stated...Retts will get to market before treatment for AD. And with orphan drug designation the way will be quicker, smoother, cheaper. And we get 7 years of no competition!!
Next year will be HUGE!!
No AF this morning?? Is he taking a nap? I'm not complaining...don't get me wrong. I'm just wondering if he is just tardy (pun intended) or maybe he is starting to have second thoughts about his avxl bashing. Or maybe he smells a Biogen deal so he wants to come over to the good side now.
???????
No. i believe it was talked about in Missling interview recently.
Rett's & Parkinson's trials is not new info. It was talked about previously.
4.97 premarket. Going up....
True...but trying to low-ball might be a huge gamble. It could ruin your chances of closing the deal. It could get rejected, or outbid by a competitor.
It all depends on what the PR says in the morning. If there are any new developments other than what we know now...it could be a gap to $10+.
Look at it this way... We are sitting on a potential SOC for AD. Not only that, but it's actually showing potential to halt or POSSIBLY reverse some of the effects of the disease. The average life expectancy of someone once diagnosed with AD is 5 years. If this stops the progression for a year, think of the reaction of the patients and their families. We just potentially added a whole year+ (20%) to their lives. That is wonderful.
And we are not done yet, because the trial (which is still ongoing) should continue to prove out the lasting benefit of taking 2-73. If we start a phase 3 trial and the results are in line with the smaller phase 2a we can make the argument that the phase 3 patients should continue to respond favorably to the treatment for "x" number of years.
The only reason the market hasn't embraced this approach is because it is different from the way BP is attacking the disease. It's assumed that they know more. But the proof is in the pudding.
Once mainstream media and BP embrace our idea based on the numbers our 2a is showing we are in for a huge push upward. Right now, in the phase we are in, and with the results we have, and considering the disease we are talking about, we should have a MC of over $1B (pps of ~$30). If we get a partner that changes dramatically.
The market had already demonstrated that it thinks that the value of an AD treatment is somewhere in the $10B-$20B range. If we enter phase 3 with a BP partner I feel that we should be valued at $10B (pps $300).
Next few weeks/months should tell the tale. And this is all not even considering the rest of the pipeline!!!
He's way beyond being concerned about that. What a gutter rat.
They can't delay a PR if it has relevant material information for traders. AF will get to read it before he puts the finishing touches on his pre-composed hit piece of kra-p.
It doesn't matter what the data was, how the trial is structured, what the plans are for next steps...all of it is meaningless to Fartstein.
He does/says whatever his handlers tell him to say/do. Whomever is paying him calls his shots. I would be absolutely floored if he doesn't bash this on Monday. He is just waiting to see what the PR says from the company on Monday. His hit piece should come very soon thereafter.
Get ready for it.
Maybe for Retts by end of 2017??
Per Missling, AD treatment will NOT be first.
Maybe I'm just ignorant of how things work, but isn't it a REALLY big deal for another competitor's name to appear on AVXLs presentation slide at a world-class conference?
Me too! Why is their name all over our presentation??? Partnership?
That would explain why they slammed their own approach so hard this week.
Oh my!!
He's a bit "tardy". Quite a bit.
Data coming by Monday is going to blow nay-sayers and tards away!
Go AVXL!!!
That's what I'm wondering... how do other drugs compare to 2-73? How good is our data? Are we better than SOC?
I'm new to this so please correct me if I'm not understanding this correctly. I have been looking at the wording on the PR very closely, and I am understanding it differently than others seem to be.
The PR states that the +1.8 in MMSE and the +4 in ADCS-ADL are being measured "in comparison to historical control from a pooled placebo arm cohort study" and not in comparison to where the patients started at the beginning of the trial. They don't say that the patient's MMSE and ADCS-ADL scores improved...instead they are talking about a "calculated treatment benefit".
It sounds to me like they are saying: "If we look at this other study that was already conducted we see that AD patients who receive a placebo deteriorate a certain amount in the course of one year. Therefore, based on the scores that our patients scored during this current trial, we can assume that if they hadn't been treated with A2-73 they would have scored 1.8 points lower on MMSE and 4 points lower on ADCS-ADL"
This is good, but it wouldn't tell me if the drug is working better or worse than the SOC or any other drug in development. A +1.8 departure from what someone would have scored if they had not been treated is good, but is that still going down, just not as fast as placebo?
Am I making sense??
So we had a treatment benefit of 1.8 on MMSE and 4 on the ADCS.
Do you know how that compares to the SOC or BIIBs drug?
Yet another article sounding the death knell for beta amyloid theory.
Better stay looking somewhere else, like....um....Anavex!