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PCMI--Sold half my position (which was over weighted because I kept averaging down) at my average cost of 13.40. Plan to be more patient with the rest as still seems cheap albeit not without risk.
DEST--Volume staying high and price running since my first post a week ago.
NROM--I sold mine also for a modest gain. While they seem to steadily be executing on their expansion plans, it will take time and not drive explosive growth IMO. Any hiccup in execution (e.g. a location that doesn't draw traffic) will set them back for several quarters. Maybe a good long term hold, but probably sideways from here for a few quarters.
DEST--Here's a beaten down retailer with too many stores and a sketchy balance sheet. They could slide into bankruptcy, but if they can rationalize their store footprint and continue to grow online sales, it could bounce back big. Notice the high volume today.
Nelson--I lost money on my UVE trade too. I don't feel stupid for selling--just for initiating the trade in the first place. ??
POLA--I was thinking commercial users might get more focused on contingency generators because of these hurricanes.
POLA--Maybe all this hurricane activity will be good for generator sales?
UVE--Haha, now that I'm out it starts to run even with a "direct hit" forecast. Somebody must be crunching numbers on their maximum exposure after reinsurance which is way above my pay grade.
UVE--Out of the rest of my position at 16.25--lost about 2% on that trade.
UVE--Sold 75% of my position for a slight loss at 16.45. I had gotten waaaaay over my skis so am glad it rallied some end of day.
I still think the recurring revenue stream is significantly more valuable than the current market cap especially to buyer that can reduce expenses by integrating into its existing operations. I don't think either CCEL or Red Oak were attracted by the prospect of growing the business, and Red Oak has done nothing to indicate they're trying to grow the business. They got in cheap, have carefully managed expenses and put the business up for sale. Although stranger things have happened, it makes no sense to me that Red Oak is planning to just hold indefinitely or that no buyer would emerge at a price that would be approximately 3X of what Red Oak paid. We know CCEL was buying shares at much higher than the current price, so they must think it's worth more. I still think there will be a transaction by year end. Otherwise, Red Oak is just holding a company that's in operational limbo--financially stable but not growing.
UVE--I hope your wrong bbotcs because I have kept averaging down to 16.62 into a now very full position. I'm not buying more.
UVE--Now averaged down to 17.40. Just another boring dividend play..
UVE--In at 17.93 on a bet that Irma won't slam Florida, and UVE will bounce back. FYI, the bet isn't based on any meteorology.
POLA--Getting slammed. Doesn't bode well for earnings next week. Makes the decision to hold into earnings easier.
Thanks otc. Just what is was looking for.
Can anyone provide link where you can enter a company symbol, and it shows all of the 13F shareholder filings?
POLA-- Thanks for posting that blog reco Hweb which must have been the catalyst for Friday's surge. Doesn't seem strange that they would give a no name blogger news of contract signings with ATT and Sprint but not otherwise communicate that to the market after their stock has been absolutely pummeled because of the customer concentration issue? Also, as the contract with Verizon shows, a contract doesn't necessarily translate into a near term sales ramp--more like you've been cleared as an approved vendor. Still it's an important and necessary first step with potentially huge customers. It will be interesting to see whether the backlog and associated commentary in the Q2 report will be encouraging enough to overcome the poor expected Q2 results.
POLA--Up big today on huge volume with no news I can find. Maybe some orchestrated pump? Maybe just me buying to boost my PSL standings?
POLA--I'm thinking even if results are poor, could trade up if backlog improves.
POLA--A steady recovery since big revenue miss. No contact announcements I'm aware of, but buyers pushing up the share price must be optimistic about next Q report in early August. If it runs past 6 before then, it will be tempting to sell at least half before the release as it will be a coin toss without any prior guidance.
Seemed very weird earlier when both the VIX and Treasury yields were up strongly as they usually move in opposite directions. Any theories?
CNAT-R59 Assuming the market doesn't tank, do you have a price target through year end?
The POLA Express is leaving the station. All aboard!
APWC--KIK--I've owned APWC for a long time but think the the earnings are extremely unpredictable from Q to Q due to 1) low margins which can get squeezed by global competitors 2) price of copper which is the primary wire cost component causing wire prices/revenues to fluctuate significantly 3) capital intensive business which can hit cash flow and/or earnings when machinery needs upgrading or is written down/off 4) FX adjustments to US$ from sales in China, Thailand, Singapore and Australia and 5) write up/down of copper inventory as copper price fluctuates.
They had a strong Q because copper price has firmed which boosts revenues/margins. Also, I think they're benefiting from modest global GDP growth including renewed growth in Europe. You'll note however that the results for the Q are inflated by a non recurring land sale.
Also of note is that the company recently adopted a dividend policy where they will declare an annual dividend for any cash surplus after all reserves, projected needs etc. Since they recently released their 2016 annual report, I expect they will declare a 2016 dividend at some point but who knows when or how much. Everything seems to move at a snail's pace.
Finally, even though the dividend policy was adopted after shareholder prodding, over 75% of the stock is owned by APWC's parent company in Taiwan--so effectively minority shareholders have no power/leverage and are at the whim of APWC management. Having said that there's never been any dilution for years and no evidence I've ever detected of self dealing, conflicts, fraud etc. although admittedly it could be hard to detect across their far flung operations. E&Y has been their auditor for years and just required them to do an inconsequential multiyear restatement which leads me to believe their financials are probably legit.
Hate it when etrade fills 100 shares of 5000 share sell order just to pocket commission
POLA--I'm thinking it's drifting up not because of a short squeeze but just because shorts are beginning to cover a successful trade.
POLA--Nice move indeed today on high volume. Maybe shorts unwinding? Skillz, my intuition tells me you'll throw caution to the wind and put all of your 60+% cash position into POLA now?! Seems like the prudent thing to do at this point.
VIX spiking and haven treasuries being bid up probably due to reports Comey memos. My own political views aside, I don't think Comey's memos and testimony if Trump denied the worst parts, would be enough for a Republican controlled House to impeach him. Of course, if there are recordings of the conversations, or Trump is caught in a lie or seeking to influence the testimony of others, he could get impeached for the cover up.
POLA--It's certainly possible that POLA's sales will just hit the wall. It just seems odd that the new issue market would back an IPO for a single customer company whose competitive position is so weak it can't attract any more customers.
SNAP missing everything in first report since IPO. Class actions should follow shortly.
POLA--I have been adding more and averaging down my cost. Given their customer concentration, I don't take the backlog as being overly indicative of their forward prospects given they recently established supply agreements with others. It seems improbable to me that they tell a good enough growth story to go public with a single customer and then their sales just hit the wall. I'm hoping a PR soon announcing new orders will reestablish support for the share price.
APWC--Also running up in premarket so somebody has conviction.
APWC--Although thinly traded, this one also ran up before the close yesterday on no news I could find. Will be interesting to see if it continues today. They are a foreign issuer subject to different filing deadlines but usually have their annual report out by around end of April. They recently adopted a dividend policy which also could prompt them to declare their first dividend depending on their cash position and needs. They earned .37 for first 9 months of 2016 so should do around .50 for the year so not expensive around 3.
POLA continues to collapse on no news. If they announce something disastrous, I hope recent sellers are investigated.
GV--Now trading in low 5's, Skillz what do you think a good re-entry price would be?
If the CBAI corporate entity was the surviving entity following a merger then the NOLs would be preserved. If it was merged into another company the NOLs would be lost.
Tony--My understanding is that a tax loss carry forward can't be assumed by a buyer so is essentially lost in a change of control transaction.
TonyM--You've been a buyer lately. What's your reaction to the latest filing?
A transaction is the only catalyst I see to move the share price. This is dead money until then. While CBAI may well be financially viable and stable now, operations aren't going to drive a share price increase. Anything is possible, but betting that Red Oak can drive the share price up now is a bad bet IMO. Of course, a buyer may resurface and a transaction could still be announced in the coming months.