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ASO +.98 to 49.15, I picked up a starter position this morning in wake of the strong earnings from DKS and HIBB. Seems like ASO should be up more than just 2%. They report Oct Q3 on 11/30 am. Back in April ASO was trading near $70 and annual EPS will come in near the $7.60 estimate that analysts had back then.
DKS and HIBB both up nicely in premarket after posting much stronger than expected Oct Q3 earnings -
Consumers continue to spend on sporting goods - ASO will be reporting before the bell on 11/30.
briefing -
Hibbett beats by $0.87, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (53.62 ) :
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $2.05 per share, $0.87 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.18; revenues fell 0.3% year/year to $431.9 mln vs the $416.17 mln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable sales decreased 2.7% versus the prior-year period. Brick and mortar comparable sales declined 5.4%, while e-commerce sales increased 12.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $8.00-8.30 vs. $7.27 FactSet Consensus and prior guidance of $7.00-7.75; sees FY24 revs flat to up ~2%, which translates to ~$1.708-1.742 bln vs. $1.72 bln FactSet Consensus.
Expects comp sales down low-single digit.
Dick's Sporting Goods beats by $0.40, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and comp guidance (119.01 ) :
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $2.85 per share, $0.40 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.45; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $3.04 bln vs the $2.94 bln FactSet Consensus.
Delivered 1.7% growth in third quarter comparable store sales on top of a 6.5% increase in the third quarter of 2022.
Co raises guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $12.00-$12.60 vs. $11.78 FactSet Consensus, compared to prior guidance of $11.50-$12.30. Sees comparable store sales growth of 0.5-2.0%, up from prior guidance of flat to +2.0%.
"With our best-in-class athlete experience and differentiated assortment, we had a very strong back-to-school season and continued to gain market share as consumers prioritize DICK'S Sporting Goods to meet their needs. Our Q3 comps were driven by increases in both transactions and average ticket, and we delivered double-digit EBT margin on a non-GAAP basis. As a result of our strong Q3 performance, we are raising our full year outlook, which balances the confidence we have in our key strategies with an acknowledgment of the uncertain macroeconomic environment. We're excited for the upcoming holiday season and the product, service and experience we are providing to our athletes."
SSK - you have a huge cash position. Why not at least collect 5% interest on it with a short term treasury bills ETF like SGOV ?
All my idle cash is in SGOV. I sweep it in and out as needed.
GTEC -.43 to 2.91, revenues were flat y/y for Q3, but thanks to higher gross margins, operating income was up about 40% y/y. There's a big $1.6M other expense item that hit net income. I'd like some clarification on that expense and am awaiting the 10Q filing.
I'm holding my shares for now .....
ACRS +.07 to .95 on early volume of 3.5M ..... what a move ! Now up 48% from your post on Monday. That was a great alert.
GTEC earnings to be reported Monday morning -
EAST WINDSOR, N.J., Nov. 17, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Greenland Technologies Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: GTEC) ("Greenland" or the "Company") today announced that it will hold a conference call on Monday, November 20, 2023 at 8:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time to discuss the Company's third quarter 2023 results and business outlook.
EBIX -1.04 to 4.62, an 8K filed this morning reported that they've gotten an extension of the previous forbearance agreement until December 17th ..... it might simply be Ch11 deferred, lol. The original agreement expired yesterday.
8K -
Effective on November 15, 2023, Ebix, Inc. (the “Company” or “Ebix”) entered into an Amended and Restated Forbearance Agreement (the “Agreement”), of the original Forbearance Agreement entered into on September 29, 2023 (the “Existing Agreement”), with certain subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors (the “Guarantors”) and lender parties thereto (the “Lenders”), Regions Bank, as administration agent and collateral agent (collectively, the “Agent”), relating to the credit agreement dated as of August 5, 2014 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified and in effect from time to time, the “Credit Agreement”).
Pursuant to the Agreement, the Agent and the Lenders have agreed that, during the period from the Existing Forbearance Effective Date (as defined in the Agreement) to the earlier of (x) 11:59 p.m. New York City time, on December 17, 2023, and (y) the date on which any termination event, as set forth in the Agreement, has occurred, the Lenders will forbear from exercising any of their respective rights and remedies with respect to certain specified defaults and event of defaults as set forth in the Agreement.
The Agreement mandates that by November 30, 2023, the Company shall have delivered certain agreements and reports to the Agent and Lenders.
EBIX option premiums strongly imply that news is imminent, maybe after the bell. The "at the money" premiums for options expiring this Friday are about 20%, but only 24% for next Friday ..... their PR said the debt agreement expires today, so that's the news traders are waiting on. Even with another extension, the stock can't be worth a whole lot after those reported big losses.
EBIX hits 7.27, wtf is right. Must be a resolution to their debt default problem that's not yet officially announced ???
Maybe cash rich biobusts are coming back into favor in this sudden frothy microcap rally ?
ACRS, OMIC
ACRS +.10 to .78 on volume of 11M ..... now up a hefty 22% since your post on Monday. I'm still holding. Thanks again for the alert !
EBIX +1.20 to 4.79, maybe they've come to an agreement with their creditors ? The stock is up 54% from Monday's low despite reporting EPS loss of (0.33) yesterday morning, hurt by high interest expense.
GTEC +.34 to 3.45, we should get an announcement for the earnings conf call this week with the earnings reported a few days later. It's acting nicely ahead of the numbers.
LMB +1.51 to 40.06, I think it's fully valued now, but that won't stop momentum players from moving it higher. I have no position and will not be chasing.
AAOI +.91 to 13.19, looks like Wade hit a homerun with this stock .... wish I had loaded up in the $7's on the brief post earnings dip !
SURG (5.72) posts Q3 EPS of $0.49 and 9mos of $1.19 -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surgepays-announces-record-third-quarter-210100819.html
SBH - I think you're reading too much into one quarter and ignoring the fact that the stock is down a whopping 50% from its 52wk high ..... a lot of retailers have been facing headwinds .... even if net income is down 5% next year, with a PE of just 5 to 6, they can buy back lots of cheap shares and grow EPS.
SBH +1.32 to 9.45, has been in gradual long term decline in terms of revenues and earnings, but 2+ years ago this was a $25 stock and they've bought back roughly 30% of their shares since 2015. Your 5-6 PE target valuation is too low, imho.
I think your 69% cash level is way too high for this market and I hope you do some buying soon ..... there are plenty of cheap stocks out there !
Homebuilders having a great day on prospects for lower mortgage rates. MHO and TOL are making new all-time highs.
SBH +1.12 to 9.25, I was able to add shares at $7.95 early in the pre-market .... this was just a slight miss, but the stock is down nearly 50% from its 52wk high even after this morning's rally. I did not expect them to meet estimates nor did the market. It looks like a recession is becoming less likely and that will boost consumer spending next year. Their guidance may prove to be conservative.
I think fair value is around $12 and will be holding ..... jmho.
Sally Beauty misses by $0.04, misses on revs; guides FY24 revs below consensus (8.13 ) :
Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.46; revenues fell 5.2% year/year to $912.4 mln vs the $930.48 mln FactSet Consensus.
Consolidated comparable sales declined 1.6%, driven primarily by lower traffic and inflationary pressures that continued to impact consumer behavior at Sally Beauty and the continuation of stylist demand trends seen over the last several quarters at Beauty Systems Group.
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of approx flat yr/yr or ~$3.73 bln vs. $3.79 bln FactSet Consensus.
Net sales and comparable sales are expected to be approximately flat compared to the prior year, reflecting growth from the Company's strategic initiatives, offset by anticipated pressure on consumer spending.
CPI shows inflation cooling .... looks like the Fed won't need to raise rates any further -
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html
OT - Google Chrome favorites vertical line spacing has increased substantially for me with the latest release. I find it wasteful to have so much blank space between lines. Has anyone else noticed this ? Or is it unique to my PC configuration ?
NYCB - interesting article on trouble facing commercial real estate debt -
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/the-clearest-sign-yet-that-commercial-real-estate-is-in-trouble-cb8dfafa?st=cxik28vct5k21n2&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
UUU borrow rate is high, but still amounts to less than 1% per week ..... so if you think there's a good chance the stock will be 10% or more lower once the earnings are released in the next week or two, then it's well worth shorting.
UUU - IB has only 1300 shares available at a borrow rate of 52% in case anyone is interested.
DRCT +1.14 to 5.18, kicking myself for not buying a lot more shares in the mid $3's on Friday. When a stock enters a trading frenzy as this one did, it's often best to buy first and ask questions later ! Day traders will be driving the stock higher regardless of dubious financials ..... how high it goes, nobody knows.
NYCB - thanks for your insights, I appreciate it.
ACRS (0.64) - I joined you with a few shares. Can't go too wrong at this price. Thanks for bringing it to the board.
NYCB -.32 to 8.98, gets attractive if it keeps trending lower, imho. It was over $14 in late July.
fly 11/3 -
Wedbush downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $11, down from $12, and is removing the stock from the firm's "Best Ideas List," citing the bank's outsized commercial real estate, or CRE, exposure in a higher-for-longer rate backdrop. The firm's base case forecast for 2024 is that the U.S. experiences at least a mild recession and in that context it is "leaning into more defensive names for our bank group," the analyst tells investors.
ACRS -4.13 to 0.62, might be a speculative buy at this price since the company is a 4 trick pony, not just the 1 trick that failed. The 52wk high is $18, so tax loss selling probably a factor till year end, but the sellers may flush out quickly ..... how much lower can it go with all that cash and other pipeline prospects, however dubious they may be ?
PR -
Based on the overall program results, Aclaris will discontinue further development of the ATI-450 program, including halting enrollment of Aclaris’ ongoing Phase 2a trial of zunsemetinib in psoriatic arthritis.
“We are deeply disappointed with the results of this trial and for patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis. We would like to thank the patients and investigators for their participation in the trial, and I am proud of our team for their commitment to its execution,” stated Doug Manion, M.D., Aclaris’ Chief Executive Officer. “Despite this setback, we continue to look forward to the upcoming results of our Phase 2b trial of ATI-1777 in atopic dermatitis and initiating our Phase 2 clinical development program for ATI-2138.”
DRCT is in a trading frenzy. The earnings report was the catalyst that set it off. It traded something like 7x the o/s on Friday and since a lot of long term holders probably did not sell, it means the day traders were typically holding it for just minutes to an hour. They'll continue to drive the stock both up and down in the coming days. They're concerned about where the stock will be trading in 6 minutes, not 6 months. Maybe it will spike up to $5+ or even $10+ ? Who knows. Then it will settle back down and fundamentals will become more important. Maybe the financials are legitimate, but maybe not. I don't know, but if it spikes up some more, then I'll be taking profits. It's just a tiny trading position for me because I don't consider it investment grade. I don't have the confidence in the company to take a big position. The earnings growth seems almost too good to be true.
DRCT finished the after hours session at 4.42 ! A gap up Monday morning seems very likely. I'm averaged in at 3.43, but unfortunately just a very small position. I was being too cautious.
DRCT +1.43 to 4.04 on volume of 22M ..... that's about 1000x the normal volume ! Volume will quickly taper down next week but will surely remain way above historic norms now that the stock is on trader's radar.
RCMT +3.02 to 24.82, what a move ! I've been trimming from the very small position I have left. Looks like momo traders are getting on board.
NVDA +12 to 482, nice call at 396 just 10 days ago ! It's had a heck of a run since then .... weekly out of the money options are up several 100%, but tough to get the timing just right.
ELTK +.12 to 11.39 - I just sold my remaining shares and will look to buy back lower ..... earnings are due out before the open on 11/16.
DRCT +.88 to 3.49 in heavy pre-market volume of 2.7M ..... thanks for the alert. I just picked up a few shares. Strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance. Q1 looks seasonally weak, but otherwise revenues have been sequentially higher every quarter, usually by a lot. Sounds almost too good to be true .....
AAOI should be a good trader in the coming weeks and months amidst ongoing speculation about future earnings .... it will be interesting to see how it trades tomorrow -
The conf call transcript is now available though I haven't yet had the chance to read it -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650101-applied-optoelectronics-inc-aaoi-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript
LMB - I don't own it nor will I be chasing it .... maybe it will come back down at some point to a good re-entry price.
AAOI -2.04 to 7.72 after hours ..... evidently the conf call was disappointing because the stock only started to tank after 5pm. I'll read the transcript when it's available. Q4 guidance seems lackluster, but maybe this is a 2024 story ?