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DRCT - thanks for the alert - I just sold my remaining 40% position at 10.00, but will be looking to buy back lower.
AAOI -.10 to 14.30, analysts raised 2024 EPS estimates to an average of $0.50 from $0.40 after the lackluster Q3 results .... so your $1.50+ is extremely optimistic.
2017 was a great earnings year for AAOI, but it was all downhill from there .... a small loss in 2018 and big losses in every year since then. They surprised in 2017 to the upside, but then a huge downside surprise in 2018.
DRCT - I just sold another 20% of my original position at 11.06 .... still have 40% left .... also put in a few GTC bids at $8 and lower ....
DRCT -1.92 to 10.67, halted for volatility .... it could be a wild ride today !
DRCT - I sold another 20% at $11.74 .... based on the heavy volume it looks like day traders are the biggest factor, playing the momentum, but that means the stock could plunge at any time when they decide to get out enmasse, causing a momentum reversal.
DRCT short covering is not a factor today because any covering is being fully offset by new short positions. That's why the borrow rate is 105% at IB and yet there are NO shares available. So there's no NET short covering going on. It's a momentum frenzy OR some investors have figured out that the numbers are for real and think the stock is worth $20+. Who knows for sure what's driving the stock ? In any case management would be wise to do a capital raise ASAP to pay down the debt.
DRCT +2.25 to 11.14, this stock is a momentum monster ! I'm still holding 80% of my original position, but regrettably it's just a tiny position .....
Congrats to Digitech on an impressive win and thanks to SSK for running the contest !
SAVE +.40 to 13.07, PUT premiums are through the roof on concerns the merger deal with Jetblue will be rejected and Spirit will have to file for bankruptcy .....
I just sold a few Jan $7.50 Puts for $1.42 .... cost basis on the stock is $6.08.
Here's an interesting article that concludes with probabilities for various outcomes and accordingly places fair value at $15.50 -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653193-spirit-airlines-if-merger-fails-whats-next
Happy Thanksgiving to All .....
This continues to be a great board with lots of savvy trading and investing ideas !
NVDA -14 to 485, selling off a bit despite a nice earnings beat and strong guidance - I picked up a few shares this morning and sold the March $500 calls for a cost basis of $450 on the stock .....
briefing -
NVIDIA beats by $0.65, beats on revs; guides JanQ revs above consensus; next waves of AI are starting to build (499.44 -4.65) :
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $4.02 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.65 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.37; revenues rose 205.5% year/year to $18.12 bln vs the $16.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
Data Center revs grew 279% yr/yr and 41% qtr/qtr to $14.51 bln. Strong sales of the NVIDIA HGX platform were driven by global demand for the training and inferencing of large language models, recommendation engines, and generative AI applications.
Gaming revs grew 81% yr/yr and 15% qtr/qtr to $2.86 bln. Strong year-on-year growth reflects higher sell-in to partners following normalization of channel inventory levels. Sequential growth reflects strong demand for our GeForce RTX 40 Series GPUs for back-to-school and the start of the holiday season.
Professional Visualization revs grew 108% yr/yr and 10% qtr/qtr to $416 mln. The year-on-year increase reflects higher sell-in to partners following normalization of channel inventory levels. The sequential increase was primarily due to stronger enterprise workstation demand and the ramp of notebook workstations based on the Ada Lovelace GPU architecture.
Automotive revs grew 4% yr/yr and 3% qtr/qtr to $261 mln. The year-on-year increase primarily reflects growth in sales of auto cockpit solutions and self-driving platforms. The sequential increase was driven by sales of self-driving platforms.
Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (Jan), sees Q4 revs of $20.0 bln, plus/minus 2%, implying $19.6-20.4 bln vs. $17.96 bln FactSet Consensus.
GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.5% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Co added, "Large language model startups, consumer internet companies and global cloud service providers were the first movers, and the next waves are starting to build. Nations and regional CSPs are investing in AI clouds to serve local demand, enterprise software companies are adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms, and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world's largest industries. NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off."
Wade - DRCT - there's a big difference between a short term trade and a long term investment. DRCT is not investment grade, imho, but still an excellent buy for a quick trade at $3.50. Who knows how legit the number are ? That's going to be important long term, but since nobody except insiders know for sure, traders were probably going to drive it higher in the short term. And that's exactly what happened. Even if it's just a 50/50 chance the numbers are legit, the stock is still worth a lot more than $3.50 on those probabilities. That's simple math.
I bought a very small position despite having doubts about the financials. I still have those doubts.
NatGas futures are the best way to avoid K-1's for ETFs ..... the futures also provide much more flexibility in terms of choice of expiration month and options at a full range of strike prices ..... another advantage is that gains are reported as 60% long term, 40% short term regardless of the holding period.
I've done very well this year by writing naked calls and straddles on NG futures .... the premiums are very hefty.
BOIL, KOLD, NG
Futures can be traded at Schwab, Ameritrade, IB and many other brokers, but you need account approval which is simple to get. Futures trading is also easy to understand. Mini futures are also available for NG if you don't want a full contract.
The next 6 weeks will be an interesting time to pick up tax loss selling related bargains ..... lots of winners and losers this year, so plenty of investors will be looking to offset gains with losses for tax purposes.
OGN, CVS, PYPL, RIVN, MPW, INMD, NEP, GTEC, FHN, F and M are just a few of many that come to mind.
DRCT hits $9.04 .... wow, I just sold 20% of my position at around $8.25.
DRCT +1.73 to 8.04, I'm still holding my entire very small position .... if I had a larger position I'd have been taking profits already at significantly lower prices, but with a very small <1% position I can afford to let it ride ..... in hindsight I wish I hadn't been so cautious in buying in the mid $3's. I agree with Gilead that at $3.50 it was a no-brainer buy for a trade based on a very favorable risk/reward ratio.
ASO +.98 to 49.15, I picked up a starter position this morning in wake of the strong earnings from DKS and HIBB. Seems like ASO should be up more than just 2%. They report Oct Q3 on 11/30 am. Back in April ASO was trading near $70 and annual EPS will come in near the $7.60 estimate that analysts had back then.
DKS and HIBB both up nicely in premarket after posting much stronger than expected Oct Q3 earnings -
Consumers continue to spend on sporting goods - ASO will be reporting before the bell on 11/30.
briefing -
Hibbett beats by $0.87, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (53.62 ) :
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $2.05 per share, $0.87 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.18; revenues fell 0.3% year/year to $431.9 mln vs the $416.17 mln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable sales decreased 2.7% versus the prior-year period. Brick and mortar comparable sales declined 5.4%, while e-commerce sales increased 12.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $8.00-8.30 vs. $7.27 FactSet Consensus and prior guidance of $7.00-7.75; sees FY24 revs flat to up ~2%, which translates to ~$1.708-1.742 bln vs. $1.72 bln FactSet Consensus.
Expects comp sales down low-single digit.
Dick's Sporting Goods beats by $0.40, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and comp guidance (119.01 ) :
Reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $2.85 per share, $0.40 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.45; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $3.04 bln vs the $2.94 bln FactSet Consensus.
Delivered 1.7% growth in third quarter comparable store sales on top of a 6.5% increase in the third quarter of 2022.
Co raises guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $12.00-$12.60 vs. $11.78 FactSet Consensus, compared to prior guidance of $11.50-$12.30. Sees comparable store sales growth of 0.5-2.0%, up from prior guidance of flat to +2.0%.
"With our best-in-class athlete experience and differentiated assortment, we had a very strong back-to-school season and continued to gain market share as consumers prioritize DICK'S Sporting Goods to meet their needs. Our Q3 comps were driven by increases in both transactions and average ticket, and we delivered double-digit EBT margin on a non-GAAP basis. As a result of our strong Q3 performance, we are raising our full year outlook, which balances the confidence we have in our key strategies with an acknowledgment of the uncertain macroeconomic environment. We're excited for the upcoming holiday season and the product, service and experience we are providing to our athletes."
SSK - you have a huge cash position. Why not at least collect 5% interest on it with a short term treasury bills ETF like SGOV ?
All my idle cash is in SGOV. I sweep it in and out as needed.
GTEC -.43 to 2.91, revenues were flat y/y for Q3, but thanks to higher gross margins, operating income was up about 40% y/y. There's a big $1.6M other expense item that hit net income. I'd like some clarification on that expense and am awaiting the 10Q filing.
I'm holding my shares for now .....
ACRS +.07 to .95 on early volume of 3.5M ..... what a move ! Now up 48% from your post on Monday. That was a great alert.
GTEC earnings to be reported Monday morning -
EAST WINDSOR, N.J., Nov. 17, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Greenland Technologies Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: GTEC) ("Greenland" or the "Company") today announced that it will hold a conference call on Monday, November 20, 2023 at 8:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time to discuss the Company's third quarter 2023 results and business outlook.
EBIX -1.04 to 4.62, an 8K filed this morning reported that they've gotten an extension of the previous forbearance agreement until December 17th ..... it might simply be Ch11 deferred, lol. The original agreement expired yesterday.
8K -
Effective on November 15, 2023, Ebix, Inc. (the “Company” or “Ebix”) entered into an Amended and Restated Forbearance Agreement (the “Agreement”), of the original Forbearance Agreement entered into on September 29, 2023 (the “Existing Agreement”), with certain subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors (the “Guarantors”) and lender parties thereto (the “Lenders”), Regions Bank, as administration agent and collateral agent (collectively, the “Agent”), relating to the credit agreement dated as of August 5, 2014 (as amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified and in effect from time to time, the “Credit Agreement”).
Pursuant to the Agreement, the Agent and the Lenders have agreed that, during the period from the Existing Forbearance Effective Date (as defined in the Agreement) to the earlier of (x) 11:59 p.m. New York City time, on December 17, 2023, and (y) the date on which any termination event, as set forth in the Agreement, has occurred, the Lenders will forbear from exercising any of their respective rights and remedies with respect to certain specified defaults and event of defaults as set forth in the Agreement.
The Agreement mandates that by November 30, 2023, the Company shall have delivered certain agreements and reports to the Agent and Lenders.
EBIX option premiums strongly imply that news is imminent, maybe after the bell. The "at the money" premiums for options expiring this Friday are about 20%, but only 24% for next Friday ..... their PR said the debt agreement expires today, so that's the news traders are waiting on. Even with another extension, the stock can't be worth a whole lot after those reported big losses.
EBIX hits 7.27, wtf is right. Must be a resolution to their debt default problem that's not yet officially announced ???
Maybe cash rich biobusts are coming back into favor in this sudden frothy microcap rally ?
ACRS, OMIC
ACRS +.10 to .78 on volume of 11M ..... now up a hefty 22% since your post on Monday. I'm still holding. Thanks again for the alert !
EBIX +1.20 to 4.79, maybe they've come to an agreement with their creditors ? The stock is up 54% from Monday's low despite reporting EPS loss of (0.33) yesterday morning, hurt by high interest expense.
GTEC +.34 to 3.45, we should get an announcement for the earnings conf call this week with the earnings reported a few days later. It's acting nicely ahead of the numbers.
LMB +1.51 to 40.06, I think it's fully valued now, but that won't stop momentum players from moving it higher. I have no position and will not be chasing.
AAOI +.91 to 13.19, looks like Wade hit a homerun with this stock .... wish I had loaded up in the $7's on the brief post earnings dip !
SURG (5.72) posts Q3 EPS of $0.49 and 9mos of $1.19 -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surgepays-announces-record-third-quarter-210100819.html
SBH - I think you're reading too much into one quarter and ignoring the fact that the stock is down a whopping 50% from its 52wk high ..... a lot of retailers have been facing headwinds .... even if net income is down 5% next year, with a PE of just 5 to 6, they can buy back lots of cheap shares and grow EPS.
SBH +1.32 to 9.45, has been in gradual long term decline in terms of revenues and earnings, but 2+ years ago this was a $25 stock and they've bought back roughly 30% of their shares since 2015. Your 5-6 PE target valuation is too low, imho.
I think your 69% cash level is way too high for this market and I hope you do some buying soon ..... there are plenty of cheap stocks out there !
Homebuilders having a great day on prospects for lower mortgage rates. MHO and TOL are making new all-time highs.
SBH +1.12 to 9.25, I was able to add shares at $7.95 early in the pre-market .... this was just a slight miss, but the stock is down nearly 50% from its 52wk high even after this morning's rally. I did not expect them to meet estimates nor did the market. It looks like a recession is becoming less likely and that will boost consumer spending next year. Their guidance may prove to be conservative.
I think fair value is around $12 and will be holding ..... jmho.
Sally Beauty misses by $0.04, misses on revs; guides FY24 revs below consensus (8.13 ) :
Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.46; revenues fell 5.2% year/year to $912.4 mln vs the $930.48 mln FactSet Consensus.
Consolidated comparable sales declined 1.6%, driven primarily by lower traffic and inflationary pressures that continued to impact consumer behavior at Sally Beauty and the continuation of stylist demand trends seen over the last several quarters at Beauty Systems Group.
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of approx flat yr/yr or ~$3.73 bln vs. $3.79 bln FactSet Consensus.
Net sales and comparable sales are expected to be approximately flat compared to the prior year, reflecting growth from the Company's strategic initiatives, offset by anticipated pressure on consumer spending.
CPI shows inflation cooling .... looks like the Fed won't need to raise rates any further -
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html
OT - Google Chrome favorites vertical line spacing has increased substantially for me with the latest release. I find it wasteful to have so much blank space between lines. Has anyone else noticed this ? Or is it unique to my PC configuration ?
NYCB - interesting article on trouble facing commercial real estate debt -
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/the-clearest-sign-yet-that-commercial-real-estate-is-in-trouble-cb8dfafa?st=cxik28vct5k21n2&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
UUU borrow rate is high, but still amounts to less than 1% per week ..... so if you think there's a good chance the stock will be 10% or more lower once the earnings are released in the next week or two, then it's well worth shorting.