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Best bet is to ignore daily fluctuations, as market timing is a risky and stressful sport. I started investing in Ameramex four years ago and am happy to wait another two. By then I wouldn't be surprised if the price reached $1 or even more without any reverse splits, making today's price a wonderful bargain.
I would expect each major project to generate advance payments, and its own subsequent cash flow.
A conservative multiple would have market cap = annual sales. On that logic AMMX annual sales would have to reach $660 million to justify a $1 share price. I don't see why annual sales couldn't reach that level if they can nail the African business. Also the company's rapid growth could justify a higher multiple.
Kahuna : maybe completion will be later than mid-October :
"...The lender does have the Bank Guarantees and is waiting for the final agreements to complete the funding package for approval."
In other words, the lender needs to receive and consider the final agreements before giving approval to the whole package. It all seems back to front to me, but there it is.
It's a good job we are all true believers, or we might be discouraged at these new, unforeseen hurdles.
Lee's last word on July 30th was:
"....The acceptance of the bank guarantees by the funding organization executes the Agreement. We will issue a news release as soon as the final funding milestone has been met..."
Not to worry : turnover so far today is about $1,200.
Thanks PC for your sensible comments. We are all hopeful that there will be good news tomorrow.
For my own investments I generally consult the Fortune Cookie Upward Predictor (FCUP), and here's one I got last week:
"Your present plans are going to succeed."
Since my present plans are to get rich on my AMMX shares, I take this to be a VERY positive indicator.
I wouldn't expect the Q2 results to be very good, but it won't matter at all if there is good Niger news.
"Slap ask fool's raid at the close."
I'm not really familiar with all this jargon, but in my opinion anyone buying Ameramex shares at .033 is just a sensible investor.
Thanks, you're right. However I saw that particular photo as a metaphor for Jeff's outlook : always looking backwards while the rest of us are looking forwards.
Jeff : I see that on your boat you are looking backwards.
Obama's implied theme at the summit was for the US to compete with China in Africa. AMMX is aiming to ship Chinese trucks to Africa with US finance, a slightly different twist, and maybe a clever one.
Strong US government support for business with Africa:
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-us-companies-invest-14b-africa-101808577--finance.html
....and related article in The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21610323-barack-obamas-ambitions-africa-will-be-measure-american-engagement
...and here is the Department of State's associated fact sheet on Niger:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5474.htm
Very important US-African summit in Washington starting today. It's positive news for all US companies wanting to do business in Africa:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/us-africa-leaders-summit
Again you say "You guys" whereas all the rest of us say "We guys."
If you're right, that's good news for the future SP. I was assuming a larger percentage of shares was still restricted.
"Intensity of selling?" Er, volume of $16,421 so far today. I think you must have led a sheltered life.
It is the steady turn around in net profits over the past five years that is so encouraging:
Revenues Net profit or loss
2008 $23.6m $571,000 loss
2009 $ 8.3m $501,000 loss
2010 $ 3.4m $323,000 loss
2011 $ 5.2m $153,000 profit
2012 $ 3.4m $276,000 profit
2013 $ 6.1m $485,000 profit
This shows very good discipline and financial control, and bodes well for the potentially huge increase in business about to happen.
I agree with you, but it seems to me that if the Niger business were 100% confirmed, the SP should be at 10 cents or 12 cents or more; so I'm guessing that quite a few potential, more cautious investors are not yet convinced. As for me, I am already fully invested in AMMX!
JDoggs : I believe that late last year there was one very big panic seller, with daily volume reaching 25 million at one point. That was why the SP went down briefly to .0015, a price that was well below any reasonable valuation. Now, everyone's collected breath is being held, just waiting for the big news.
Not surprised!
Jeff: when you say "I'm really happy for you guys" you at least confirm that you are not yourself an AMMX shareholder, unlike probably every other contributor to this board.
Dr B
Ref "sell on the news", my feeling is - maybe not in this case. There is a lot of skepticism out there because AMMX has been talking about big contracts for years but not delivering, so the current share price only reflects Niger to a small extent. When this one actually happens there could be a lot of converts pushing the share price up.
Dead rat bounce? Talking about yourself again Jeff.
I agree completely. This contract is just the beginning, as it will give them the working capital and reputation they need to expand the international business.
I would buy more myself if I hadn't already bet the ranch. It feels safer today than ever.
This slow downward slide isn't surprising in the absence of news. One point though : if the news turns out to be good, the current activity in the shares indicates a lack of insider trading,unless maybe all the insiders have restricted shares.
I expect $1+ in due course. Final confirmation of this first Niger deal will just mark the beginning of AMMX's lucrative African adventure.
I think Marty said that there's some common personnel to the two deals, so no solar progress can be expected until the truck deal is finalized.
We are all grown-ups and have made our investment decisions on the information available. AMMX isn't as safe as US Treasuries, but is a lot more exciting.
That is very good news.
This delay is a bit puzzling, as Niger has a strong economic relationship with China and should surely have an interest in concluding this deal ASAP.
This from Marty this morning, ref Niger contract:
"We have a high level of confidence. Translation issues have delayed docs to funder."
I'm afraid of that too.
I emailed Marty earlier this morning with a more general question about the status of the contract, no reply so far.
New York Times article today on record foreign investment in Africa. AMMX is doing its best to participate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/21/world/africa/economy-improves-as-middle-class-africans-open-wallets-to-the-future.html?emc=edit_th_20140721&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67151903&_r=0