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I'm simply pointing out Anavex already has multiple indications in the pipeline and S1R scientific papers have identified others. That is much different than in $SAVA's case "an independent third party at mid-year 2023 release a report containing evidentiary data for the biological activity of Simufilam outside of neurodegeneration."
Just clarifying, not bashing your other investment.
Duly filed under "no duh", but I guess some people in retail need to be told it.
At this stage we are as investors making assumptions based on more or less certain data and assign probabilities of approval.
Simufilam only targets Alzheimer is correct. Blarcamesine on the other hand currently has other indications in the pipeline and more to come.
"Simufilam is a proprietary, small molecule (oral) drug that restores the normal shape and function of altered filamin A (FLNA), a scaffolding protein, in the brain."
"We are now in clinical studies to test a new and promising scientific approach for the treatment and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease."
https://www.cassavasciences.com/pti-125
If there were other indications one would think they would be mentioned by the company.
My $AVXL to $SAVA ratio is more like 700 to 1, but your plan works too.
Nothing about the $NWBO frivolous lawsuit against Citadel will be "uncomfortable" for Adam Feuerstein, in fact, I bet he's relishing in the attention this bring to his brand. Everyone knows his schtick is to be an entertaining troll.
Adam Feuerstein was correct on $CYDY and also $NWBO and I agreed with his opinions. However, regarding $AVXL, his OTC type bashing has lost it's punch as $AVXL has evolved into a viable company over the last 8 years while $CYDY and $NWBO remain OTC level trash.
I can't see into the future, but I can predict outcomes with success by evaluating currently available information.
LOL, poor little $NWBO and their frivolous lawsuit.
The fact of the matter is AF is simply doing what he does best and that's to be a troll and amplify the volume of public info that their readout wasn't impressive. Citadel will win the lawsuit regardless who was the troll. It's unfortunate $NWBO is spending resources on this versus actually being a biotech.
The market makers, Northwest wrote, “deliberately engaged in repeated spoofing that interfered with the natural forces of supply and demand and drove (the company’s) share price downward over the course of the relevant period.”
Given the bearish market tone toward equities, I doubt any excitement from $RETA will bleed over to $AVXL, but I 100% agree $RETA can be used as a case study for $AVXL's future valuation based on a Rett Syndrome approval.
IMO, a Rett syndrome approval is a slam dunk, we got this indication.
I think the MM exemption and REGSHO were fine starts at proper industry regulation, however where the system breaks down and allows for shady practices is on the back end clearing.
It was when the DTCC sided with the MM's to not impose more regulations and audits on the back end clearing, thus allowing for the creation of "counterfeit stock" within the system, is when I started believing the issue COULD be larger than we know. Particularly as it applies to OTC level garbage stocks popular on ihub.
Technicals are not to be argued, they are what they are. Math is math and formulas are formulas.
I think the point is T/A is great for traders, but investors should primarily pay attention to company fundamentals and scientific prospects in biotech.
Another cliché I often told my clients was to "pick a lane", are you an investor or a trader? Undisciplined mixing the two strategies, combined with human emotions, often result it failed outcomes of selling low and buying high.
Regarding waiting, hell, I thought I'd be volunteering and supporting the associated Anavex advocacy groups, specifically FXS by now.
The technicals for $AVXL are simply horrid and usually when I accumulate.
"I buy when the blood is in the streets" used to be my favorite motto when accumulating stocks with weak technicals, but a strong "story" components that can produce "surprise" upside moves.
"good news"....so I would never had even expected it, it gives proof to the belief that important NEWS does indeed trump charts. The indicators for it were mostly lousy.
Totally agree and why I'm invested in Anavex for an upstream solution.
I'm banking on the idea that S1R and muscarinic modulation will treat many indications regardless of the type of plaque type, for example alpha synuclein as the tell tale sign of PD, PDD, and Lewy Body Dementia.
Team T/A people, thinking it's time to fill that gap?
I have a hunch the $XBI will fade and pull $AVXL down to $9.25 to fill it.
Correct, thus far only lecanemab has been able to show a measurable slowing of disease progression, and as you state it's doubtful it's even noticeable in the clinic/real world.
I'm simply not one to buy into the narrow thinking narrative that neurological disease treatment options will be an "us versus them" topic. I'm in the there will be multiple approaches camp.
Amyloid is NOT dead in my opinion and very well could be part of AD treatment plans as safer compounds to remove it are discovered and measurable neurological improvements continue.
I not 100% in the anti-amyloid camp, I'm in the prove it camp and thus far the amyloid reduction method doesn't have the burden of "proof" to outweigh the risks of adverse side effects, cost of administration, and cost of monitoring.
The headline is deceiving IMO as the article also said:
"“We may have reached the limit of what amyloid lowering can do,” said Dr. Knopman. “We therefore need to be thinking about alternatives, such as treating people earlier, looking at combination therapies and really looking at alternative targets.”"
The narrative is actually quite exciting for those of us following the emerging science of Sigma 1R and Muscarinic modulation.
IR simply regurgitates public information, it's when IR interactions are posted to the board as hearsay without the "forward looking language" that is NOT to be trusted.
Rett Syndrome is one of $AVXL 's WGT indications and the voucher is quite valuable "as you know."
Plus, the FDA will be up to speed on the indication as trofinetide from Acadia will probably be approved soon.
"The fill the gap people can target $9 and the find the resistance people can target $12"
A quote I made to fellow Anavex investors on Feb 17 when $AVXL traded at $10.25 and struggling to stay above the 100 day SMA.:
Regarding your comment, I agree too.
Waiting for the bottom to buy now, some trading shares, below 9. to sell around target 11.50 area.
Still watching out for the market crash. Hard to know when that is coming.
umm ... but attorneys do have the ability to lie, not a profession I'd have faith in.
To rephrase your statement a bit, I have faith in the law, not the lawyers.
Ah yes...as is the I2014 style to ONLY spin Uncertainty toward the negative under the guise of Doubt to elicit the Fear response.
You found the diamond in the rough with this $AVXL thread as this forum is primarily for OTC level penny stocks and where the Anavex public trading story began. Thanks to a handful of outstanding contributors the $AVXL board is become a great resource.
I'm mixed on the value of social media and investing, but for entertainment value it's great.
A strategy I often employ with is selling covered calls when the price gets too far over fair value on a portion of my very low cost basis shares.
The strategy hit max gain on the 2021 run up and had all of my sub $1 bragging shares called away at $7.5 and $10 and a monster tax bill I gladly paid.
Great explanation for people unaware how equity financing works.
Not sure if you read the WSJ article I posted on the state of the biotech industry and their financing woes, but it's a short good read and within this context, the LPC agreement is fair and reasonable.
Curious what industry do you come from? I'm an ex-financial compliance manager and it's been awhile since I've seen a quality post explaining this in a while.
You speaka my language ;) The FB group may be of interest to you and your style. SOTC and Mayo are primary content contributors.
Regarding access to capital within the biotech sector, make sure you understand the context the industry is in and how important it is for a company to have a reliable access to capital.
"Layoffs and Shutdowns Hit Biotech Industry in U-Turn"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/layoffs-and-shutdowns-hit-biotech-industry-in-u-turn-ffdf14eb
More despicable than pathetic to make such ridiculous claims.
People are also noticing that the advancement of S1R science on the academic front backs up SOTC "Mayomobile" research.
"Know what you own" as they say.
Use a modified "golden cross" analysis using the 100 day versus the 200 day for better signals.
Interesting to see all the primary SMA's within a small range of $9.77 to $10.70
AUC is useful and valuable
Dr.Timo is a scientist and a German one at that so of course there is no "WGT" tone. LOL
What I do see is an excitement of the novel MOA of S1R activation.
As a fellow old timer with skills, play the "Core and explore" strategy.
$AVXL has been a very profitable trading stock for me over the last 8 years. I hook a hiatus from trading and went to buy side only over the last couple years, but truth be told I had to go to accumulation mode because I got too cocky selling premium rich covered calls against my very low cost basis positions. I got my ass handed to me on a silver platter in Feb 2021 whereby I lost a ton of opportunity cost that paled in comparison to the premiums received. I officially retired in 2020 and without a steady income stream it's been a slog to rebuild my position. The fact I lost bragging rights for holding sub $1.00 shares still irks and haunts me. LOL
Total side story, I have a $AMGN position in my inherited IRA with a $1.78 cost basis. I'll be sad to see that cost basis lost when the step up basis is created upon transfer out.
AUC analysis is not new...but spin it as bearish as you want. The science and analysis is solid and based upon standard measures.
https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-auc-roc-curve-68b2303cc9c5
$AVXL has engaged Ariana for its advanced AI analytics for a reason.
Know what you own.
Events bullish and bearish can of course cause a reevaluation of technicals.
Nothing wrong with a range pattern for those who know what they own and why. The macro trading environment can't be fought, but it can be traded for those with the skills.
It's that 5% of value that prevents placing on "ignore". LOL
The LPC agreement is more like a "Put" agreement whereby LPC must purchase the shares per the formula up to agreed amounts. The formula mitigates the risk to LPC and is common in equity financing agreements. The terms of the price calculation are fair.
The Cantor agreement had no obligation of Cantor to buy, but simply for Cantor to act as an intermediary or placement agent for a 3% fee with discretion for Cantor to not act, but to instead act on good faith based on market conditions.
All market participants whether they will admit it or not are part of a cabal.
That's the beauty of technical analysis, it is what it is, math is math. But of course interpretations of the math may differ.
Since both methods might be presented in a final report our exercise in understanding the difference in the endpoint calculations and their application is probably futile.
But, good to exercise the brain nonetheless.