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Well pennies.......my concern and fears are that I might miss out on potential gains by waiting too long for stalling price action, especially when I may not be able to trade or focus on trading at the time when the price is working itself out around those three fib lines (2am my time for example), so to avoid the potential missed trades or bum trades, I could just set open orders at each of the fib level lines in the new box before shutting down for the night or when I'm going to be away from the computer, to allow for the entries to fill in time as they would, without having to be there each and evey moment of the day and night, day in and day out. I want to prevent potentially missing out on gains because I was either unavailable to take the trade, or missed out on gains because of my own error in interpreting the price action around those fib lines. Nothings simple in trading forex, except for our simplegreen and that's only referencing his tag name. Speaking of simplegreen.......I've always believed that only simple people eat roadkill. But being that I'm a bit of a simpleton myself and considering that I've never had roadkill, maybe I'm typecasting and maybe I've been missing out! lol
Thank you sir!!! Duplicating and moving the new duplicate fib was so simple to do, and yet so hard for me to figure out how to do! I've wondered how to do that for months. It's sad really.... lol
So price action IS what you are using to decide entry points around those fibs then. Well that's not auto as I'd wished for and believed it to be when reading SGs posts on the subject, but it's not really a surprise then.
It seems to me though that if the price seldom, if ever really blows through those three lines in the new box from the old fib box, then a person could take a small starter reversal position on the 1st "trade entry" line that price action hits on new 4 hour fib box and then add to his position at the "50 percent" line, finally adding a third small position to the next, and last, "trade entry" line in that box, and then wait for the reversal to bring gains only closing out when the reversal price action stalls wherever that might be. I'd like to hear your thoughts as well as SGs thoughts on that idea...
Pennies.......I watched your "1st Fib Boxes" vid last night but was unable to focus as well as I wanted to, so I did't comment or watch it again until this morning. So I've watched it again this am and I want to thank you for going to the trouble, 'cause it's a huge help, for me and I assume others, in finding understanding of how to setup the chart and how price action behaves in relation to those three fib levels!
I was able to focus on it finally this morning as everyones quiet here in the house. So, after watching it, I have a question. How are you able to duplicate your fib box with what appears to be one click, then being able to immediately drag that duplicate to stack on the prior or lower fib boxes? When I double click on my fib layout, I am able to move the top end or bottom end of the fib to change it's dimension, and I can move the whole fib around without changing it's dimension but I can't make a duplicate fib box with one click, much less drag it around,with its dimension unchanging, to stack above or below the master box. I'm using Alpari too btw.
Also, are you using the last prior wave which presented both a new swing high and new swing low beyond it's prior wave or can the wave simply have a new swing low in an uptrend or a new swing high in a downtrend?
And.....one more thing. I saw where the price action would observe and obey all three of the "enter trade/50%/enter trade" line levels in the new fib box, but I'm still unsure which of those levels I would take the trade off of, or which line SG would recommend taking the trade from, unless it's simply a pure matter of price action around those fib levels being the determing factor.
I told you I really needed help with SG's fib method of trading! lol..
Many thanks!
Oh no! Well that's not good....
Patience......that's what I need.....patience......lol
Yes!!! I'm over the flu and feeling much better about things, especially with the 1st fib vid done! Just waiting for it to post in the vid board..
Wondered where you'd been........lol
Most unfortunate too as there is nothing to be gained by insulting people when they are misguided or in error. Constructive criticism is another thing and there's much to be gained by it.
Nice to see you posting again!
Hey charger.......appreciate your mention of the zero trix signal line. It's not a perfect indication in itself as there may be some slack in price action, but when applied to trendlines and levels of S&R on price action, it's an excellent indicator.
I'm also finding that the trix (3) and trix (4) and (6) crossovers and rollovers can show the same divergence that the TDI and awesome oscillator does. In fact I'm seeing where the trix crossover/rollover indicator can show divergence where the TDI and AO doesn't show divergence on an evolving price action reversal. I can see where I can use the three indicators together to confirm one another or see where one is giving a false signal. The TDI and AO can keep me steady on when I get a false signal from the TRIX crossovers/rollovers and vice versa. Key to the use of each of these indicators though imo, is that they are best used in conjunction with price action trendlines!
Hey SG.....I just noticed that you have a sticky on the main board regarding "Fibonacci Math and how to post a chart". Would you mind using that location for placing your educational series on your fib method of trading so that each post is in order of posting for those like me to refer to for sake of learning and revisiting those prior posts on the subject? It would be of huge benefit to myself and others.
You might have to give it a new title to accomodate the fib math and fib method and posting a chart. Doesn't matter, we'll all know what it's about whether you do or not.
Refreshing far better at the moment SG. eom
I thought it had turned around SG and then it was unavailable again for several minutes right after my last post. My MT4 is slow too.
It was miserably slow for me for a little while there boca.
Charger.......I'm unable to click and drag the bollinger bands and ma(5) 0.0003,4,5 over to my TRIX windows in my MT4 chart. Am I doing something wrong?
Also, I notice you've abandoned the PPO indis within your TRIX windows. Are they just not necessary, or do they present too much "noise" to the visual of the chart?
Pennies.........just wanted to mention that SG has posted more posts on the topic of clarification of trading off fib line sets on the main board. They may help you in your prep for throwing together a full vid set on how to trade using his method of fib trading. I'm still in the process of laying down the fib sets. Don't know for sure but I think I might have figure it out for the most part.....just not certain.
Yeah......how silly of me. lol..
Sorry boca, I noticed that I put the weekly up and had to edit my post to attach the monthly. Sorry for the confusion.
And yes the smaller time frames show a pending reversal from the TDI, but I've learned to distrust the TDI and its divergence on the yen pairs for the time being.
boca.....joined you and pennies on that AJ short afterall. Here's why. See my monthly chart below. If price breaks above current top red trendline on that ascending wedge then I'm out with little loss and will look for some other spot to try and tackle a short on it maybe like the 88.6 fib on that monthly or even 78.6 if smaller time frames give good opp.
Now the TDI fast line has cut up through it's upper band so that may prove bearish.
The pinch on the TRIX indis are not tight on the monthly but they are pretty tight on the weekly chart. From my observations of chargers TRIX pincher lines there seems to be a good pullback from the pinch of the lines and then a new high but a much looser pinch which in itself shows a reversal divergence indication. So while I don't think the monthly trendline will kill this move up necessarily, I do think we're do for a pullback. I'm taking the chance over the weekend here to see if we haven't topped yet or come within a 100 pips or less of a top.
Also this is the third monthly candle where each has begun off the tops of the prior candles. I don't know what that means in terms of a bearish tense, but I'm letting that top trendline be my stop loss spot at this point. Oh, and I'm in light here so I'll survive it if I get stopped out and since the risk/reward ratio is pretty good here, I'm taking the chance once again on a yen pair to finally turn around for a couple/three hundred potential pips gains in the next week or by end of month. Hopefully we'll catch a break here next week. Talk at you guys later...
Morning boca. I'm so tired of adding one yen loss to another that I'm staying out today. Thanks, but no thanks at this point. Plus I really don't want to carry any open postions over the weekend. I do wish you good luck with it and since I'm out, it'll likely drop 100 pips or more for you before market closes. lol
UJ hits the fib expansion 161.8 in another 150 pips. I'll go short there with a small short and let it run up another 300 pips to the 38.6 fib level on the weekly chart. If it moves higher than that, I'll begin to think that maybe SGs right about the need for reigning in the yen manipulators. For now, it seems to me that the UJ weekly has begun a wave 3 move up and to trade against a wave 3 is not very smart. lol
You too 'whatever07'......safe means staying out of the market today for me. No temptation for me to short now, but watch it gap down Sunday. No winning in this game at times apparantly because when chart technicals don't matter, then it's a guessing game or you're on the inside deeply involved in manipulating the currencies which none of us on this board are I'm assuming.
I was hoping there was something solid in technicals to trade from with these yen pairs. That's not what I was hoping to hear.....
Well thank you for your honest answer and opinion. If it weren't friday I think I'd just go long and see at each new 100 pip high, wait for the retrace to the 240 and see if support is found there and if so add again. I may do just that come Sunday.
Well SG......I just closed out my UJ short for another 100 plus pip loss. I didn't close out with the break of highs yesterday as I should have and said that I would(just stubborn foolishness), but held overnight to see if I'd get lucky. I didn't of course, but my TRIX indicators have a crossover which might allow for a retrace here on the 4 hour, and frankly I'd probably continue to hold until we saw a new high hit since it is a fairly small position, but I just don't want to face another dang gap up on the yen pairs when market opens Sunday and I also don't want to hang on to a small losing position for weeks on end either. I'm just staying out of the market until I see a trade that I trust shaping up. I'll need to see a true reversal candle like a shooting star on the 4 hour chart with all other indicators looking good before I take the plunge again on the yen pairs. THose yen pairs are like large freight trains going up steep grades with multiple diesel engines pulling them slowly mile after mile and I just don't see clearly where the summit is yet. I'm off that train till it's ready to wreck!
Also, I'm wanting to really learn how you trade SG; with that fib setup before I venture into any more uncertain trades.
If you wouldn't mind, could you throw a UJ 4 hour and daily chart of your setup showing where you'd enter a future short based on the fibs on those time frames? I'm not necesarrily going to take a short off it, but I'd like to see more input on your live and realtime trade setup. If you can't or don't have time, I totally understand that you have more going on than forex. Nothing to do with you, but I've got the flu with body aches and temp and just general feeling like crap, and we got fresh snow outside this morning so I got more on my plate than I'd care to dish up. lol What a shitty week!
For some reason my chart isn't letting me put those ema's on it. I'll have to restart my MT4 platform maybe....
I'll lay them down though as soon as I can and see if that gives a better picture of when to trust the TDI and when not to. Thanks estimator.
There was almost 600 pips to be made going long on UJ 4 weeks ago. I could have used those nearly 600 pips of profit. In the past month I have been trading short the wrong way on these dang yen pairs. The weekly chart isn't insignificant and must not be ignored. Oh and by the way, it looks to me that we've been in a wave 3 on the weekly chart. So will this be an extended wave 3 on the yen pairs like UJ that I'm currently holding? Actually we appear to be in a wave 3 on the monthly chart for UJ.
I am not holding on to my UJ short if we make a new high on it breaking above 88.40. I'll be out with yet more losses for the week and I'll be staying out for good, unless I get a better handle on trading off the TDI and figure out how to trade off SGs fib setup.
Pennies. I have a challenging question for you. See my 1 hour USD/JPY chart below and you will notice that the price action which I have annotated and addressed is begging for clarification and explanation to provide traders like me a better understanding of what I am missing when it comes to trading off the TDI! Can you explain why the divergence and the TDI baseline extremes didn't bring about a reversal on this 1 hour chart. There was only 30 to 50 pips to be made trading peaks down to the white line (MTF 15 minute 240 ema) and there was absolutely no reversal, just another breakout and some 400 plus pip (so far) move up against the guy who may have been short based on that TDI and divergence setup. If we're back to wave counting as an answer to my question then I'm in trouble because now we're talking trading off the daily chart or weekly chart to count waves since those dang wave 3s can be extended for hundreds of pips on the larger time frames. Ok, check out my chart and please help me out here?!
Right boca. And do we trust it or not.
I'm holding UJ still too boca. In retrospect, I should have dropped UJ as a tiny loss and added to my EA position which I was down 75 pips on already, but with that break of the weekly trendline, I just didn't want to sit and watch my paper losses stack up potentially on EA for a couple weeks before finding some place to begin to reduce those losses with another add whether 150 or 250 pips below or whatever. It's happened too many times before. The weekly chart does matter if you don't trade the 4 hour chart accurately. And we didn't see that setup on pennies "managing trades and live trading" vid playout as he expected so that rattled me too.
Now watch UJ make new highs and leave me with more 75 plus pip losses....
No thanks stargate. I'll leave all that buying of US equities to all the major retirement fund managers out there who are drinking the cool-aid by the gallon and helping to fund the goals of the white house while wiping out future retirement accounts for the masses of hardworking tax paying citizens. Or am I confused and mistaken, and all that debt on the taxpayers backs will just be forgiven by china and all the other nations that this great nation has borrowed from over the last few years? God bless America!
Hey looky there. EA did bounce up to test the trendline before dropping another 100 pips overnight. And I bailed with locked in losses last night not wanting to play the hold for two week and lose game again as I've done too many times in the past with these "early" entries. Ain't that great....
I don't know coolman. I'm really unsure here. There ought to be a return to test the weekly trendline, but I don't know when, and pennies has been right before about these smaller time frames 5th waves, but I'm not sure if I'm going to hold over night or not....
You guys may very well be right. I started very light so I may add another light position before a hundred pips against me but not right here, right now. I'll watch it and add before going to bed hopefully in a good spot.
I don't know. What I don't like is the fact that the 88.6 fib on the weekly chart is 750 pips below and this is the second bearich week on a weekly reversal. I know a lot of reversal on the 4 hour occurs in between the weekly chart, but still.....
We had a break down through the weekly trendline. This is the second bearish weekly candle on the weekly trend reversal; not the third of fourth week. While we'll likely see a bounce to test that weekly lower trendline, I don't know when that'll happen. I'm in small so I'll probaby just wait it out adding every couple hundred pips or so but I'm irritated nonetheless that I'm essentially stuck in a bad trade yet another week. That is unless I take my losses of course now... Compare this break of the weekly trendline with the prior back in mid april last year. See my chart below
I'm watching my paper losses stack up on EA....
Right jav.......without SG, I might not have ever come across pennies. And simple's information has been extremely valuable too, especially when you get him and pennies and git in the past together. There was a very good immersion into forex at the time for me with all their info sharing and charting examples. Still a slow road for me but maybe I'll arrive at my destination at some point in the future thanks to pennies and SG and the combined input from everyone who is seriously seeking to become skilled at trading forex.
Yep jav......he's made any and all charting technicals clearer to me than any book or online resource I've ever come across. From fibs to wave patterns. If I ever make enough trading forex to benefit my family as a supplemental income or source of wealth, trading forex, I can thank pennies for it because of his many, many hours of patience in educating me and answering all my stupid and ignorant questions. lol
I missed that jav. I think we ought to ask our pennies to give us an example of that! Say and by the way.....where is our pennies? Not our precious, but our pennies? lol
Got lord of the rings in my head from seeing it in the theatre a couple nights ago..
Sure jav.....I'll try to make sure I do. I do try already, but I'll pay closer attention.
Don't know yet it it's going to turn or not. It sure is making me sweat though. Thankfully I'm in light so I can accomodate a larger move up or just close out with my days gains so far on prior trades. UGH!
We'd make far more money jav if we could learn to let wave 3 breakouts run and scalp off the corrective waves both. I need a system of catching the begining of a wave 3 on the 4 hour charts and letting them go. I'm hoping SGs fib setup will accomodate that desire when pennies throws together a vid making SGs setup more clear to me. I just don't get it all yet. I can't trade off it because I'm not sure if I understand price action on those 3 or 4 fib channels, etc.
It may boca, since there's a bearish pennant forming from trendlines off the tops and bottoms of the candles on this wave up.