is...itchy
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Oil will only have a correlation when it gets to certain levels that traders are looking at. In this case, traders won't worry unless it gets to a low 40 number, ie 40.50ish.
Keep an eye on oil. After the euro close it has been running higher. If oil starts trading back below 40.50 area, it should affect equities negatively. If they take it higher, equities should strengthen.
Man, today was non stop. For a rally that big, I expected more volume. Got long some UVXY and got stopped, bought back in half my position at the close. Will add on weakness in the am. Bought spy 206 puts at the close (went out to Dec on them) and I will dca on any strength on the open.
Though this rally was big, I think based upon using the 140 sma, we will pull back after a short pop tomorrow. It closed slightly above it, which can happen, but i just don't think it will sustain holding above it.
One thing that is clear, big candles are back. I think we will see big up and down moves which typically happen at market tops and bottoms. Do we think this is a market bottom? Nope
I may be completely wrong, this is Op ex week after all.
140 SMA is 205.58... resistance. will be interesting to see if SPY can get above it.
VXX, is like a chick who slept with Charlie Sheen and she just heard the news that he's going to announce he's HIV positive tomorrow...
Curious to see how the US Markets do on the Euro Close. I think if oil breaks below 40, we should see more pressure on stocks. Support line @ 203.15ish on the 15 min chart. Seems like equities are waiting to see what oil can do.
As much as I hate to say this, these goat F*ckers are not stupid. They know that the global markets are vulnerable. I wish we could vaporize all these terrorists...
Remember we thought the same thing in October when we were heading up. Have a great weekend!
They aren't making a prediction, just putting it into the realm of possibility. They never make predictions, they just react and go based upon experience.
This is what I got from the floor of the NYSE a short while ago...
A few traders with a couple of decades under their belts ponder a possible Monday purge. The premise is a kind of calendar template. Very bad Thursday then a not so bad Friday followed by a trapdoor Monday. Ye Olde Traders Handbook suggests we may be a little early in the selloff (one week plus) for a capitulation selloff. The global nature of these recent interactions are a great backdrop for volatility hotspots, however.
Interesting
Thanks Spart... There is also the E'rl (oil) correlation.
I agree with your sentiments Imi... This is a resistant line here, let's call it 204.35. Let's see if the sellers step back in. on the rally it seemed the sellers just disappeared. A break below 203.80 should signal a move towards the lows of the day. Let's see who takes control in here...
203.20 on the 15 min has been holding. Didn't flush it hard enough to keep it below it. Will be interesting to see if they close it below 203.20 at 11:30... but it doesn't look like they will....
E'rl in the 40 and change handle.... a break below that will spook the market I think.
Hold me closer Tony Danza...
As long as you come and join the party dressed to kill...
Perception and Reality ... Beauty is in the eye of the beholder... apparently the masses think the 450 lb chick with more rolls that a bakery, is pretty hot... BUT remember "Fat chicks are like mopeds, fun to ride until a friend sees you"...
That would make a hell of a t-shirt...
JXYZ, I was thinking the same with a tad bit higher price.
VIX active today, bull trap for that bear? Thanks in advance.
SPY broke below its 140 DMA and VXX broke above it on strong vol. It will be interesting if there is a similar candle on the SPY daily tomorrow. I would think bounce up, but maybe there is something we don't know...
And tomorrow is FRIDAY THE 13TH...
Wonder if SPY is gonna wear a hockey mask and carry a machete.
Most Institutional guys I talk to watch oil closely when it gets to critical levels. I would think we are certain for a retest of the August lows in Crude. It has (in the past) had a drag on equities.
On another note, AAPL and FB aren't participating in this sell off. Maybe because they are the fattest they want to go last? I just hope they don't land on anybody else ;)
Hey Imi... Oil correlation? Hope all is well bud!
if spy falls back to the 200 area, that is a pretty stark rejection of the range before the sell off at the end of Aug. Feb thru August never really tested 200, it was always 204ish. A break below 200 should confirm the bearish trend.
Look at all the retailers, all coming in way below sales expectations, IBM at 5 year lows, Oil retesting lows. Thank heaven for technology, that is the only thing that is keeping the market here. Trade is decreasing. How many signs do we need in order for us to realize that growth is somewhat stalling.
I'm trying to be objective here. Just look at the facts in front of you.
Last year it was hating cops, looks like now it is hating presidents of Universities is en vogue.
Civil unrest becoming more and more common.
And OpEx is next week... Maybe they fake out the Bulls? I've seen it before...
I appreciate the clarification. It is quite an interesting thought though. Good luck!
JXYZ, i apologize, but do you mean bears in the VIX?
we shall find out that answer on the next episode of "The Market"!
There was 750 million dollars to sell on the close and they ripped it 40 cents in less than a minute. That was a such a painted close it ain't even funny. It also traded about half the volume of yesterday. If this does go higher tomorrow I gander it will be on light volume and a sellers strike. Very strange day from watching the tape. Keep in mind, the bond market is closed tomorrow for Veteran's Day.
yes, that 195 gap on the daily and weekly is much more of a big deal than people think. I know daily gaps have gone over a year to fill, but I wonder what is the longest period of time it took to fill a weekly gap?
Bot family party of 12, your table is ready... the question is are they in the restaurant...
I noticed that too. A close down in this area will be the first close below the 10 DMA (on the daily) since the rally began on Oct 2nd.
Yes, you are absolutely correct I believe. There is that correlation as well. Thank you for pointing that out.
Check your mail Imi... Let's see if the oil correlation starts taking hold again.
I am far from upset. I am ecstatic. Riding the wave until the tide goes out.
Of course, the motto of "bad news is good news" is still forging ahead. Jut buy em, never sell em, because they will never go down again... EVER!