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Okay, maybe not so viable after reading Obuhz's post. But maybe you can run it past Mitchy and see what she thinks ;)
Okay, I'll bite. But why would they add more sites in the US recently if Japan was their long term goal? A contingency plan if Japan didn't come to fruition?
Can someone with the knowledge or experience please explain to me if it is possible for shorts to cover millions of shares without driving the price up? Wouldn't there have to be sellers of equal size to keep the price level or declining while they cover? With all the longs on this board (and other boards) saying they haven't sold a single share, I just don't understand where the volume comes from on days like Friday. Is it the ETF's or did some of the big funds dump their holdings? Any guesses? I didn't think there were a lot of shares available for shorting so ruling that out as a big factor last week.
Wow! It's crazy, but I like it! Everything else about this investment has been extremely wild and unpredictable, so why not?
It would explain the shorts latest attempt to severly depress the price for covering as they are running out of time. It will be interesting to see if there is massive buying volume the next few weeks. Still over 9m shares short + dark pools. Would love to see Woodford buy a couple million on the open market to foil their plan.
Are you saying the IA would have already been submitted for EAMS, results expected prior to the conference, petition referenced in the PR refers to FDA review for AA, and the idea that EAMS approval would occur prior to FDA AA review providing another positive element for FDA consideration?
If you are correct, the events of last week present an investment opportunity of a lifetime.
I'm still a little confused on one point. 90 days (or 78) beginning a couple weeks from now doesn't get us anything for a September conference in London. So what's the significance of the conference?
Thanks flipper. If IA was completed in June, how does that bode for PFS? I thought everyone was hoping we would have to wait awhile for the events and therefore IA to occur (thus proving efficacy for the treatment group). And wouldn't the data at the 1st IA have to be incredibly compelling due to the smaller number of events to reach stat Sig? Is June long enough to get us there?
I view the current investment situation as a giant pendulum that swings back and forth from bullish to bearish depending on current events and market speculation. It definetly swung to support the bears last week fueled by a host of unknowns and a market downturn. So how does the momentum change back in our favor? We have some rumors floating around that nwbo maybe be petitioning for fast track, AA, something positive, etc. But we need something bigger to create some major unknowns for the shorts.
Another Woodford financing perhaps at favorable terms would help. A large investment above current prices (would still be well below prices a few weeks ago) would alleviate fears that something is amiss and allow continuation of Direct phase 2 prep and finalization. It would make the shorts consider that maybe something really big is going on behind the scenes.
Something should be done to stabilize the situation. I would hate to see Linda simply lay down and take further attacks without doing anything. I know some folks will say that she isn't concerned with day to day price movement. I get that, but what could happen if this gets too far out of control would have long term implications for future funding, trial enrollment, and overall success of her company. We will see just what she's made of in the coming days. Please please please have a surprise for the shorts on Monday!! It's go time.
Last week was a huge victory for the shorts. The price is unlikely to recover while all of the uncertainty remains. NWBO's vague and ambiguous response leaves the door wide open to further manipulation and attacks in the coming weeks. They are pretty much unable to say anything further about the current situation. They are completely defenseless in the short term. The shorts probably never even expected this kind of a gift so soon. This was a perfect storm during a market correction and exaggerated by a huge misstep at the worst possible time. The 'what if's' of the past few weeks will probably haunt certain folks for a long long time.
The overall market slump will leave many on the sidelines watching in the coming days. I don't see much of a price recovery. If the IA review comes back as a continue, we will probably never recover. The damage has been done and I think the pain of this investment has just begun.
Let's avoid the personal digs and attempts to discredit and instead focus only on the issues at hand.
You claimed that the temp halt for screening and the regulatory filing are separate events and unrelated. The screening halt is due to enrollment reaching completion ("enough patients in the pipeline") and the regulatory filing is for AA. My question remains unaddressed. The entire issue yesterday revolved solely around the temporary halt status on the EU website. This could have been easily explained in the PR by your hypothesis about enrollment. But it wasn't. Why?
So why not just say that in the PR? If the two events (screening halt and filing for regulatory review) are completely separate, why not just say they feel they have enough patients in the pipeline to meet full enrollment. Heck, they didn't even have to bring up the regulatory filing. Simply address the enrollment completion as the reason for ceasing the screening and explain the "temp halt" status showing up on the EudraCT. Done deal. But if that were true, they would have capitalized on this very positive news event concerning enrollment. They would have announced it right away, probably at the same time the screening halt was implemented or right before, rather than waiting until after it was discovered to acknowledge it.
Sorry, your hypothesis doesn't hold water. There is something else going on. 4+ millions shares sold yesterday. I'm guessing some of the big investors already know what it is and are heading for the exits.
Linda needs to come out swinging on Monday. Annouce a financing or announce a partner for Direct. Do Something!! Don't let the shorts destroy your company or the folks that have supported you any further. If you are silent, they will take another 50% before they start to cover.
Your guess is as good as any. It may not have anything to do with an IA.
Recruited doesn't mean enrolled. Enrolled may be well under 300.
I have been a long term investor. I just lost over 40%. Not feeling like much of a winner.
I have a feeling the recent events and the way they were handled may give Woodford some pause before he pulls out his checkbook again. The best thing that could happen is for a financing to be announced on Monday. Remove the financial risk issue from the table and show Woodford is still committed.
It is far fetched, but the thought crossed my mind too. If great news is on the immediate horizon, Linda may have simply said screw it, the market is in the toilet this week anyway, why not let the sp drop to where friends in the UK can load up on the cheap. And if Woodford's buying occurred in the open market before the PR, no worry of any issues in the way of insider knowledge.
Maybe you can help me understand something. Where did 4+ million shares come from? Retail can't be responsible for that kind of volume and it looks like some big blocks in there too. Can that kind of vol buying occur with the help of mm's without running up the price?
Yep definitely just a dream. If they don't plan to submit the info for regulatory review for at least a couple of weeks, do you really think they would have a decision by September 16th? The PR was left vague for a reason. We really don't know what is going on or if it is good or bad. There is rampant speculation going on right now by both sides.
In case anyone wonders who the winners are in all of this:
Linda Powers/Cognate - less scrutiny on the $4 shares-in-lieu transfers
Neil Woodford - next large financing around his cost average of $7
Shorts - all the profits from shares shorted above $10, ample opportunity to cover everything else at current prices
It's no wonder there wasn't any urgency for damage control today.
Now for the losers:
Well you know who you are...
Yes, charges will be brought against certain people. Have no doubt about that.
So who sold over 4 million shares today?
Why isn't anyone rushing in to buy shares on the great news?
Well there you have it. They waited for hundreds of millions of their company's value to evaporate before telling us that. No rebound. 50% loss in a month. Congrats to all that held.
Linda plans to release after the market close on a Friday. It must be good news.
The first thing that crossed my mind when I saw the 260 day delay in the report was the 10's of millions of dollars and stock that have transferred to Cognate over the last year for "trial site preparation, expansion, ramping up, blah blah blah.." Didn't NWBO even give Cognate a big fat bonus at the end of last year for their outstanding work?
You bring up a valid concern about the possible loss of funding if the NHS benchmarks are not met.
Interesting read for folks that think nwbo has no competition.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-20/jimmy-carter-may-benefit-from-revolution-in-cancer-immune-drugs
I found the following quote of particular interest:
"Five years ago if you were diagnosed with brain metastases we would probably tell you that you had about six months to live,” said Anna Pavlick, who is co-director of the melanoma program at New York University’s Perlmutter Cancer Center. Now “the picture has totally changed.” Some patients in which the radiation therapy works “can go on to live normal, healthy lives for years.”
Technology sure changes quickly doesn't it?
No, the report is very clear that the first patient was recruited 5/13/15 at this site.
Thanks for clarifying. I still wonder why it was so long for recruitment of the first patient at this site after approval of the application.
There have been a few sites added recently in the US. Should we expect they will begin treating their first patients next May? If so, I guess I won't be surprised when the projected date to reach full enrollment is once again moved back another year.
I changed my mind about leaving since I had a couple of encouraging messages in the ol inbox. I will try to limit the complaining though. It's just tough to not be pissed during these extremely volatile swings. Guess I thought having Woodford on board would stablize us a little even in a downturn. The lack of any updates is very frustrating and concerning. Why is the trial overseas halted? Isn't that something we should know about (good or bad)??
Why wasn't a patient treated in the UK until May of this year?? If that's true, we aren't anywhere close to full enrollment and once again LP's prediction for completion of a major milestone will be off by a mile. I hope I'm wrong, but fear it's the same song, 3rd verse, all over again.
Tomorrow should be interesting. It's hard to buy more when there doesn't seem to be a bottom in sight. If the overall market drop continues, I feel we could drop 10+% tomorrow. Any chart you pull up shows a pretty gruesome picture. Are you all buying or waiting and watching? I'm just trying to ride it out, but it is kind of sickening to see us back down to levels I thought were behind us for good.
Obviously you didn't read my post or you would know that I haven't sold. I would be a happy camper right now if I would have. I almost did, that's why I am kicking myself. I was too greedy and now I will pay the consequences with the rest of you.
I'm growing very tired of the rinse and repeat cycles. If you've been around a couple years you know what I'm talking about. This time is no different. Will we find out that LP almost ran the company out of $ before the next financing? Will we have to further delay enrollment because the funds were so low once again? I have a long term investment horizon, but I have never invested in a company where I was so unsure of management's competence. Yet I stay hoping for a miracle as my paper gains are flushed away a little more each day. The traders are the winners here, no doubt about it.
I want to know if you think the silence, no news, no progress, etc., on all of the milestones/catalysts that Linda Powers has mentioned over the past several years is a good thing?
Senti, why do you suppose NWBO hasn't had anything positive to share for MONTHS?
That's great advice for folks as we head back into the 8's and then into the 7's. Who knows, major market correction maybe 6's or 5's..
The executives are going to get their free shares no matter what. More shares will have to be issued at these lower prices to get the same financing. Unless nwbo changes the executive compensation package to include even more shares, the execs will be diluted just like us if 10 m shares are issued at $8 vs. 5.3 m at $15.
Who is dumping all these shares? I don't see major accumulation as some here claim. I see someone dumping shares as fast as they can. What is going on??
Xbi down 2%, ibb down 1.4%, nwbo down 8%. Yikes! No bottom to be found.
This is a good day to look at your account balances from a few weeks ago and ask yourself why you didn't take some risk off the table after a nearly 100% gain. Welcome to biotech!! Bye bye paper gains. Hope you don't get wiped out from overexposure to a single stock.
Nothing illegal about it. An empire has been built in Cognate. Linda has many a retail shareholder to thank for financial support during the lean times.
Quite the chart isn't it?
This reminds me of a Tom Petty song...Free Fallin'
If Linda would have played her cards right, and released a little good news with upward momentum behind the stock, we could have easily been at $15 for the next financing. Now it looks like the next financing will be at the same SP as the last. More dilutive to all shareholders, including herself. Well done Linda, well done. Where's that link for CEO of the year? lol.. Wonderful buying opportunity. I feel like I've been a broken record saying that in the 12's, 11's, 10's, 9's, 8's. I'll say it again when we reach 7's.
Big pharma is slowly coming around to the idea that vaccines can be effective on their own or in combination with other treatments. It isn't surprising that there are still many doubters out there since this is a totally new way of thinking about cancer treatment. I don't know if DcVax will be the ticket, but I do think personalized vaccines will ultimately lead to a cure for many types of cancer. It's hard to put a price on what people would be willing to pay for a cure.
I totally agree. Also, Woodford certainly has 'boots on the ground' in the UK and probably here in the US. There are many legal ways to obtain information if you have the resources to do so. I won't be surprised to see Woodford's Patient Capital Trust invest a sizeable amount in the near future.