Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
GOLDMAN: We Disagree With The Fed
Sam Ro
Nov. 1, 2014, 12:03 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-disagrees-with-the-fed-on-labor-market-slack-2014-11
11/02/14 SPX
On 10/15, SPX made an intraday low 1820.66.
Low target projection made on 10/04 was 1814.36-1803.32.
The pullback length from 2019.26 to 1820.66 was 198.6 points.
The bounce off from 1820.66 takes out every predefined resistance. SPX is in an uptrend in every time frames again. The bearish scenario is set off at least temporarily.
short term supports:
1977-1972
short term resistance/high targets:
The bounce sine 09/15 has no “sizeable” pullbacks, so i use larger time frame as reference. i need some fresh hourly data to nail-in which cluster has the better odds.
2036.54-2038.24
http://www.chartupload.com/images/99668381249151258206.jpg
2024.90-2031.01
http://www.chartupload.com/images/40646545482565503695.jpg
In a broad direction:
(05/24:) 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/05946992392831121277.jpg
archive
11/01/14DJI
DJI marked new ATH 17395.54 on 10/31.
notes:
(1)
Fibonacci projection gives multiple targets; It is hard to know which route is the dominant one in advance. Now, at least I know 17397.55 (1.414) in the DJI chart has the closest match. a tiny 0.01155% aberration.
(2)
There is a section of the wave in the chart I considered that is indiscernible. imho, it is that particular section give E-wavers big headache; I am not surprised that Tony Caldaro made new adjustments on his DJI & SPX wave count. more details: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/weekend-update-472/
archive
Elliott's probabilities & E wavers in Forensic
Elliott's probabilities
In order to connect E-wave capture rate with probability in statistics, we will need to find a bridge to engage a set of the mathematical tools, however, we may open a can of worms unintentionally.
imho, the Elliott wave theory is a branch of pattern recognition, The process involves finding a best fit pattern and extrapolating the possible terminal points according to the Fibonacci ratios. therefore, the E-wave hunting is a generic heuristic (rule based. see note) pattern search process.
Note:
Heuristic ("find" or "discover")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic
refers to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery that give a solution which is not guaranteed to be optimal. Where the exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples of this method include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, stereotyping, or common sense.
Problems in Using the Representativeness Heuristic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic
The use of the representativeness heuristic will likely lead to violations of Bayes' Theorem.
Bayes' theorem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Bayes' probability theorem is stated mathematically as the following simple form
Introductory examples -- ( ... lengthy .. skip )
E wavers in Forensic
Classical 'debates' in the wonderful E-wave land
for example:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29751744
There are “only” a few E-wavers in this interesting Elite group love to show the sharpness of the E-Sword.
For example:
“No system is as predictive as EWP”
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89238095
In a polite way:
"A few” E-wavers somewhat resemble the white rabbit:
"In the Alice wonderland, the White Rabbit “is the first Wonderland character Alice encounters. He appears at the very beginning of the book , ..... the White Rabbit is confident enough about himself ... In a way, he is some kind of a guide through Wonderland for her, only unintentionally”. http://www.alice-in-wonderland.net/school/white-rabbit.html
Here is an analogy that says the efforts of hunting the cloud reflection by the renowned French painter (Claude Monet) is no difference than an E-wave chaser does. For self entertainment, thus fine, Otherwise, there is no fun at all.
great call!
intraday high 1999.40,
a tiny gap 1998.30 (09/24 close) - 1997.32 (09/25 open) got filled.
10/30/14 SPX
prior post
Supports:
1991.40-1820.66
0.382 1926.16 a former resistance now is the support
0.500 1906.03
2019.26-1737.92 (Q1/14 Low)
0.382 1911.79
Resistance:
2019.26-1820.66
0.866 1992.65
0.500 1991.16 see chart
0.618 2006.34
0.786 2027.95
for the entertainment purpose, i plotted an 'un-popular' wave count intentionally. this is to show that wave may deploy different routes, the actions upon the support & resistance is the key for perception.
Count for entertainment purpose
possible structure a-b-c,X,a-b-c, with X in progressing
10/29/14 SPX
2014 Monetary Policy Releases
The Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month
Release Date: October 29, 2014
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141029a.htm
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level.
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (270 KB PDF)
2014 Monetary Policy Releases
GOLDMAN: The S&P-500 Will Hit Another All-Time-High Before-Year-End
FYI
10/25/14 SPX
short term resistance:
1972.39-1976.76, (0.764/0.786, 1820.66-2019.26)
short term support:
1931.14-1910.02, (0.236/0.382, 1965.27-1820.66)
10/19/14 04:53:06 PM
- FOMC is a wild card.
synopsis:
The pullback length from 2019.26 to 1820.66 is 198.6 points. The bounce from 1820.66 retraced longer than 0.618/1943.39, and it is getting closer to the 0.764/0.786 retracement 1972.39/1976.76 . Now, a dovish FOMC may spur a SPX rally into early November (11/03-11/07). Let’s see.
>> Very positive numbers from CFNAI
I check ECRI weekly index more often than "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." (Monthly)
( http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ )
You mentioned CFNAI a couple months ago. Here is the latest one:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Embargoed for release: October 23, 2014
http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2014/cfnai_october2014.pdf
Sep '14 +0.47
Aug '14 -0.25
Jul '14 +0.52
ECRI-weekly: annualized growth indicator negative print since 08/12
ECRI Weekly Update on October 24 for week OCT 17, 2014
https://www.businesscycle.com/
10/23/14 SPX At pivotal point (both time & magnitude)
10/19/14 SPX
Prognosis:
- Immediate resistance 1899.25, 1900.99-1919.96
- Short term resistance 1925.25-1926.03, 1943.39-1944.20
- close above 1978.63 may invalidate the bearish scenario
- FOMC is a wild card.
plans:
Looking for zones (-You-Pick-) to buy inverse ETFs.
"When the facts change, I change my mind." - John Maynard Keynes
Projections:
(a) Use Wave, Fibonacci retracement
- second down leg target 1806-1784. see first chart.
- third down leg & middle term downside target:
(1) 1683 +/- in this chart
(2) 1637 - 1598, see bottom chart
(b) Use Deflators (to be elaborated)
_____________________________________
Sunday, 06/22/14 01:38:03 PM
Calculate the Pullback target
Target = deflator coefficients * wave terminal point
where the deflator coefficients are:
0.79012, 0.8100, 0.89198, 0.92456, 0.96191
______________________________________
1635.60 = 2019.26 * 0.81000 (1634.30 0.8093579)
1595.45 = 2019.26 * 0.79012 (1605.72 0.7951999)
1615.53 = (1595.45+1635.60)/2
1801.14 = 2019.26 * 0.89198
popular Deflators 80%, 85% ( 20%, 15% off)
1615.41 = 2019.26 * 0.80
1716.37 = 2019.26 * 0.85
(c) 2000-2007 trend line support around 1600
>> where is .. .. gdl
He is doing the "Forensic Analysis" with POKERSAM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/T-A-ETF-AND-INDEX-4503/
rab120: miscellaneous for short term
bluechip231: Thank you ( TBA - To be announced. )
6/7 trading days before FOMC open their mouths again, fuzzy read.
FWIW:
-------------------------------------
'beta' activated his plan:
10/17/14 SPX
The 'standard' bounce is expected to poke into 1884.93 - 1896.53 (0.3236-0.382, 2019.26-1820.66).
For further speculation:
(1) we will need to see if the bounce gets rejection before 1900.99-1909.33 ('strong' resistance).
(2) FOMC 10/29-30
10/15
The pullback from 2019.26 may deploy into a single zig zag sequence. the first down lag is about to conclude, with a bounce up to (TBA), and then down to 1683 +/-.
Interim (Preliminary)
10/16/14 SPX
SPX is flirting with 1867.53.
intraday high 1867.82 - in progress
- 1867.53 = [0.236:(2019.26:1820.66)]
- 1867.53 is the minimum bounce requirement
>> Oil & Dollar
FWIW
----------------------------------------
Jim Rickards - Obama Ending Alliance with Saudi Arabia and Killing the Petrodollar
10/15/2014
Published on Oct 6, 2014
http://www.discreetbullion.com/1776/jim-rickards-obama-ending-alliance-with-saudi-arabia-and-killing-the-petrodollar
sold SPXU
sold all core positions. (GTC Sell activated a few days ago)
will hold Corp Bonds till maturity.
for trading: i will wait for new opportunity on inverse ETF
The great transition (7) NO WAY OUT
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
ahimsak . . . . . . .
>>(ahimsak) I have said over and over, a bull dies first
>> with a 10% drop followed by a quick rally up.
>> Lets see if that plays out here.
I visited your 'gallery', impressive works.
this post was the one i replied to you on 09/25. Indeed, market will offer us another one.
Interim (Preliminary) short-to-middle term outlook
(1) sold partial SPXU with 22% gain, about 140-145 x 3 SPX points)
(2) fast market: intraday low 1820.66, (1820.35 = FIB 0.707 2019.26-1737.92)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/39536720897889077515.jpg
(3)Interim (Preliminary) short-to-middle term outlook
The pullback from 2019.26 may deploy into a single zig zag sequence. the first down lag is about to conclude, with a bounce up to (TBA), and then down to 1683 +/-.
Prior Post:
- (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
- latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
10/15/14 SPX (2)
intraday low 1823.87 - in progress
Bull gave away the last defending line 1833.62-1832.87, (see table)
-------------------------------------
10/15/14 10:47:34 AM
2. (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
3. latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
fast market, chart can't catch up
10/15/14 SPX
in progress:
intraday low 1837.22
intraday bounce high: 1866.49 (10:03AM EDT)
1. (10/02) SPX 1866.93-1868.47 has been met. Now, it is becoming the immediate resistance
2. (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
3. latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
review projections
level 2019.19, actual 2019.26
date 09/18/14, actual 09/19/14
short term archives
10/13/14 SPX
in progress:
intraday high: 1912.09
intraday low: 1890.67
immediate resistance: 1911.79 ( see first chart)
immediate support: 1892.63-1893.64
short term resistance: 1924-1927 (approx)
short term support: 1884.61, 1881.58
(1) (10/04) "first flat expansion in the (seemingly) ongoing 1-2-1-(2-1-....) downward wave sequence."
(2) Flat expansion with lower right peak is bearish.
Friday, 09/26/14 11:55:59 AM
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32
Thursday, 10/02/14 10:56:10 AM
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
Now, 1936.38-1938.32 is becoming the resistance
with two failed attempts 1936.98, 1935.56
I painted it with red color at the time index still above the zone, no mistake.
Microchip: We believe that another industry correction has-begun
Insight China (8) China automobile Chapter One
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
China Jier has supplied sophisticated high-speed press lines for world well-know car maker FORD in Detroit & Kentucky plant.
Jier: http://www.euroblech.com/english/exhibitor-profile/?exhibitor=103174
China, the world's largest automobile producer won a seat in automobile stamping technology, aims on taking advance in welding, painting and assembling, to become a fully self-sustained automobile manufacture (four core processes: stamping, welding, painting and assembling)
Goldman: third quarter consensus revenue estimates fell 3%
10/10/14 SPX
in progress:
(1) intraday high 1936.98 (9:45am EDT), 1935.56 (12:33pm)
The former critical support 1936.38-1938.32 is becoming an immediate resistance)
(2) intraday low 1912.84
standard retracement 0.382 @1911.79 ( = [0.382, (2019.26,1739.92)] )
short term resistance 1942,1953
Thursday, 10/02/14 10:56:10 AM
SPX/DJI are both poking into their critical support zone 1936.38-1938.32, 16710-16770 respectively.
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
Geo-Economic - The great transition (6) BMB
Beijing-Moscow-Berlin strategic trade and commercial alliance
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Insight China (7) AC electrical/diesel-electric/diesel-hydraulic locomotives
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Not many years ago, China export concentrated in ‘Gadgets’ such as products for Toys"R"Us®, That was the impression about China. The spectrum changes quietly and dramatically. The competition is intense
Germany Replaces China as World’s Trade-Surplus Boogeyman
10/04/14 SPX
(1) short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
(2) short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32
(3) The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
(4) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32.
synopsis
When SPX climbs above the bear gauge 1992.24-1982.21, the odds is in favor for bull.
The first chart shows a few key resistance. In specific, 1986.37 is a popular one that has been populated around the cyber world. It is the first flat expansion top in the (seemingly) ongoing 1-2-1-(2-1-....) downward wave sequence. When bull takes out 1986.37, it also invalidates the ongoing 1-2-1... bearish sequence. But, bull still need to deal with the pivotal zone 1994-2019, see quote.
Geo-Economic: The great transition (5) Hong Kong Singapore
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
The pearl of East
Hong Kong is known for its expansive skyline and deep natural harbor. Hong Kong ranks the third most important leading international financial centre, after London and New York City, Hong Kong has a major capitalist service economy characterized by low taxation and free trade.
Due to (1)(2), Hong Kong has lost its shine slowly.
Occupy Central with Love and Peace,OCLP (Occupy Central)
is a developing story, the following commentary from The Guardian (UK) gives a cut-to-the point view.
10/02/14 SPX/DJI poking into the critical support zone
SPX/DJI are both poking into their critical support zone 1936.38-1938.32, 16710-16770 respectively.
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
archive:
09/26/14 SPX/DJI check points
[A] SPX
short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32, (1938.85, wave 1.500)
[B] DJI
short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
Geo-Economic- The-great-transition-(4): After Abenomics
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Let’s rewind the history tape:
Yoshihiko Noda has been labeled as a “Pro China” politician , He was the Prime Minister of Japan from 2011 to 2012.
Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda (Right) and China's Premier Wen Jiabao attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, December 25, 2011.
photo: http://himg2.huanqiu.com/attachment2010/111225/9870a8f17f.jpg
Japan and China agreed to start formal talks early 2012 on a free trade pact that would also include South Korea
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/25/uk-china-japan-korea-idUKTRE7BO07W20111225
http://www.oldkids.cn/blog/blog_con.php?blogid=287223
Shanghai Cooperation Organization to Take in India, Pakistan
http://tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/shanghai-cooperation-organization-to-take-in-india-pakistan/
Posted: September 13, 2014
Admitting India as a SCO member may drive a wedge between India and the US so that the US cannot use India to encircle China. It will enable SCO to break out of its boundary of former Soviet Union plus China. When India, China and Pakistan are all SCO members India’s relations with China and Pakistan will improve due to intensified communications and efforts for mutual interests in the organization.
For China, India may join China in developing the Silk Road on the Sea initiated by China instead of opposing the Road for fear of China’s expansion into the Indian Ocean. This blogger believes that if India joints SCO, the Russia-India-China alliance may become a reality.
10/01/14 Misc
SPX bounces off 1941.72 vs. 0.382 @1940.99 (highlighted in green color in this chart)
SPX intraday low: 1941.72
- frame No. 2: 0.382 @ 1940.99
- critical support 1936.38-1938.32
DJI intraday low: 16776.13 vs. projected 16770
- short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
09/26/14 SPX/DJI check points
[A] SPX
short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32, (1938.85, wave 1.500)
[B] DJI
short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
wrote earlier:
Review:
09/19/14: A real time Alert: We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, from a minimum 6 Trading Day away, 23 TD, to maximum 77 TD. In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
08/01/14: I came out two dates: 08/22 +/- & 09/18 +/- , don't know which one will dominate, it could be a nested zone. (to be elaborated when transpires)
After the real time Alert, SPX commenced the long awaited pullback, it cut through the 50 SMA. Meanwhile DJI showed more than 200 points daily fluctuations. Can we say indices has started the beginning of the BIG downward flush ?
There are two technical evidence to say that Index is about to see the long awaited large pullbacks:
(1) Major index marked ATH & reversed quickly on 09/19, one day late than the projected 09/18 time stamp.
(2) The Fibonacci Time Zone ratio is very close to 1.382 between the two green colored bull zone ( in the bottom chart). More precisely speaking, the ratio is 744/543 = 1.368, A perfect 1.382 would be on 09/29-30, for such a large time frame, just a handful of trading days deviation is considered a good fit.
Discussions:
Usually, there are cascading short cycle harmonics before and after a dominant cycle, These harmonics are signals to validate the dominant cycle but not necessary has to show up; We got a low 1904.78 on 08/07/14, We may see another short cycle harmonics on 09/29-30, or 10/22-23. as long as the coming short cycle harmonic is either a secondary Low, or a lower Higher that will corroborate a formative high has been reached, presumably it was the peak on 09/19. The coming 09/29-30 time slot seems too close to the 09/19 Peak, it could be more logical to see a secondary Low or Lower-High on 10/22-23. No one knows for sure, be mindful. It is still too soon to draw the conclusion. How to trade is the state of ART at each trader’s own discretionary judgments.