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GOLDMAN: We Disagree With The Fed
Sam Ro
Nov. 1, 2014, 12:03 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-disagrees-with-the-fed-on-labor-market-slack-2014-11
11/02/14 SPX
On 10/15, SPX made an intraday low 1820.66.
Low target projection made on 10/04 was 1814.36-1803.32.
The pullback length from 2019.26 to 1820.66 was 198.6 points.
The bounce off from 1820.66 takes out every predefined resistance. SPX is in an uptrend in every time frames again. The bearish scenario is set off at least temporarily.
short term supports:
1977-1972
short term resistance/high targets:
The bounce sine 09/15 has no “sizeable” pullbacks, so i use larger time frame as reference. i need some fresh hourly data to nail-in which cluster has the better odds.
2036.54-2038.24
http://www.chartupload.com/images/99668381249151258206.jpg
2024.90-2031.01
http://www.chartupload.com/images/40646545482565503695.jpg
In a broad direction:
(05/24:) 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/05946992392831121277.jpg
archive
Friday, 09/19/14 01:13:57 PM
09/19/14 SPX Getting closer .....
We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, .. .. ..
In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
Saturday, 10/04/14 04:03:55 PM
Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32.
Sunday, 10/19/14 04:53:06 PM
- close above 1978.63 may invalidate the bearish scenario
11/01/14DJI
DJI marked new ATH 17395.54 on 10/31.
notes:
(1)
Fibonacci projection gives multiple targets; It is hard to know which route is the dominant one in advance. Now, at least I know 17397.55 (1.414) in the DJI chart has the closest match. a tiny 0.01155% aberration.
(2)
There is a section of the wave in the chart I considered that is indiscernible. imho, it is that particular section give E-wavers big headache; I am not surprised that Tony Caldaro made new adjustments on his DJI & SPX wave count. more details: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/weekend-update-472/
archive
Friday, 09/26/14 11:55:59 AM
The first attempt on 17365 failed. DJI marked ATH 17350.64 on 09/19
Monday, 09/15/14 11:57:44 PM
As the chart illustrated: 17365-17499 is the gauge (and the resistance) for the new assault above 18000, may be in between 18062-18485. (+5.2-7.7% above the recent high 17161.55)
Elliott's probabilities & E wavers in Forensic
Elliott's probabilities
In order to connect E-wave capture rate with probability in statistics, we will need to find a bridge to engage a set of the mathematical tools, however, we may open a can of worms unintentionally.
imho, the Elliott wave theory is a branch of pattern recognition, The process involves finding a best fit pattern and extrapolating the possible terminal points according to the Fibonacci ratios. therefore, the E-wave hunting is a generic heuristic (rule based. see note) pattern search process.
Note:
Heuristic ("find" or "discover")
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic
refers to experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery that give a solution which is not guaranteed to be optimal. Where the exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples of this method include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, stereotyping, or common sense.
Problems in Using the Representativeness Heuristic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic
The use of the representativeness heuristic will likely lead to violations of Bayes' Theorem.
Bayes' theorem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Bayes' probability theorem is stated mathematically as the following simple form
Introductory examples -- ( ... lengthy .. skip )
E wavers in Forensic
Classical 'debates' in the wonderful E-wave land
for example:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29751744
There are “only” a few E-wavers in this interesting Elite group love to show the sharpness of the E-Sword.
For example:
“No system is as predictive as EWP”
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89238095
In a polite way:
"A few” E-wavers somewhat resemble the white rabbit:
"In the Alice wonderland, the White Rabbit “is the first Wonderland character Alice encounters. He appears at the very beginning of the book , ..... the White Rabbit is confident enough about himself ... In a way, he is some kind of a guide through Wonderland for her, only unintentionally”. http://www.alice-in-wonderland.net/school/white-rabbit.html
Here is an analogy that says the efforts of hunting the cloud reflection by the renowned French painter (Claude Monet) is no difference than an E-wave chaser does. For self entertainment, thus fine, Otherwise, there is no fun at all.
http://www.intermonet.com/oeuvre/pontjapo.htm
They are bringing the canvases to me one after the other. A color that I had found and sketched on one of these canvases yesterday reappears in the air. I am quickly given this painting and strive to fix this vision as permanently as possible. But it usually vanishes as fast as it sprang up, making way for another color I had already painted days ago on another study instantly put in front of me... And that is the way it is all day long."
http://www.intermonet.com/oeuvre/nymphea1.htm
These landscapes of water and reflections have became my obsession. They are far beyond my old man powers and despite everything I want to succeed in conveying what I feel. I destroy some... I start over again... And I hope something will finally come from so many efforts."
great call!
intraday high 1999.40,
a tiny gap 1998.30 (09/24 close) - 1997.32 (09/25 open) got filled.
10/30/14 SPX
prior post
Supports:
1991.40-1820.66
0.382 1926.16 a former resistance now is the support
0.500 1906.03
2019.26-1737.92 (Q1/14 Low)
0.382 1911.79
Resistance:
2019.26-1820.66
0.866 1992.65
0.500 1991.16 see chart
0.618 2006.34
0.786 2027.95
for the entertainment purpose, i plotted an 'un-popular' wave count intentionally. this is to show that wave may deploy different routes, the actions upon the support & resistance is the key for perception.
Count for entertainment purpose
possible structure a-b-c,X,a-b-c, with X in progressing
10/29/14 SPX
Sunday, 10/19/14 04:53:06 PM
- close above 1978.63 may invalidate the bearish scenario
- FOMC is a wild card.
Overall archive
(1) Saturday, 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
I proposed the following long term chart on September 30, 2012. You can find some “popular” numbers such as 1880, 1944, (2047.41,2069.93, 2130.46), 2213 .. etc, these are the wave Fibonacci extensions.
(2) Saturday, 05/24/14 01:57:15 PM
imho, 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
2014 Monetary Policy Releases
The Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month
Release Date: October 29, 2014
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141029a.htm
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level.
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (270 KB PDF)
2014 Monetary Policy Releases
GOLDMAN: The S&P-500 Will Hit Another All-Time-High Before-Year-End
FYI
GOLDMAN: The S&P 500 Will Hit Another All-Time High Before Year-End
MYLES UDLAND OCT. 26, 2014, 12:18 PM
In a note to clients over the weekend, Goldman Sachs equity chief David Kostin writes that the S&P 500 will hit 2,050 by the end of this year, and will rise 10% to hit 2,150 within a year.
Read More
10/25/14 SPX
short term resistance:
1972.39-1976.76, (0.764/0.786, 1820.66-2019.26)
short term support:
1931.14-1910.02, (0.236/0.382, 1965.27-1820.66)
10/19/14 04:53:06 PM
- FOMC is a wild card.
synopsis:
The pullback length from 2019.26 to 1820.66 is 198.6 points. The bounce from 1820.66 retraced longer than 0.618/1943.39, and it is getting closer to the 0.764/0.786 retracement 1972.39/1976.76 . Now, a dovish FOMC may spur a SPX rally into early November (11/03-11/07). Let’s see.
Overall archive
(1) Saturday, 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
I proposed the following long term chart on September 30, 2012. You can find some “popular” numbers such as 1880, 1944, (2047.41,2069.93, 2130.46), 2213 .. etc, these are the wave Fibonacci extensions.
(2) Saturday, 05/24/14 01:57:15 PM
imho, 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
>> Very positive numbers from CFNAI
I check ECRI weekly index more often than "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization." (Monthly)
( http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ )
You mentioned CFNAI a couple months ago. Here is the latest one:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Embargoed for release: October 23, 2014
http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2014/cfnai_october2014.pdf
Sep '14 +0.47
Aug '14 -0.25
Jul '14 +0.52
ECRI-weekly: annualized growth indicator negative print since 08/12
ECRI Weekly Update on October 24 for week OCT 17, 2014
https://www.businesscycle.com/
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
October 24, 2014
by Doug Short
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.9, down substantially from the previous week's 134.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -0.1, down from 1.0 the previous week and its first negative print since August of 2012.
10/23/14 SPX At pivotal point (both time & magnitude)
Sunday, 10/19/14 04:53:06 PM
- close above 1978.63 may invalidate the bearish scenario
- FOMC is a wild card.
Wednesday, 10/01/14 04:12:50 PM
Discussions:
Usually, there are cascading short cycle harmonics before and after a dominant cycle, These harmonics are signals to validate the dominant cycle but not necessary has to show up; We got a low 1904.78 on 08/07/14, We may see another short cycle harmonics on 09/29-30, or 10/22-23. as long as the coming short cycle harmonic is either a secondary Low, or a lower Higher that will corroborate a formative high has been reached, presumably it was the peak on 09/19. The coming 09/29-30 time slot seems too close to the 09/19 Peak, it could be more logical to see a secondary Low or Lower-High on 10/22-23. +/- No one knows for sure, be mindful. It is still too soon to draw the conclusion. How to trade is the state of ART at each trader’s own discretionary judgments.
10/19/14 SPX
Prognosis:
- Immediate resistance 1899.25, 1900.99-1919.96
- Short term resistance 1925.25-1926.03, 1943.39-1944.20
- close above 1978.63 may invalidate the bearish scenario
- FOMC is a wild card.
plans:
Looking for zones (-You-Pick-) to buy inverse ETFs.
"When the facts change, I change my mind." - John Maynard Keynes
Projections:
(a) Use Wave, Fibonacci retracement
- second down leg target 1806-1784. see first chart.
- third down leg & middle term downside target:
(1) 1683 +/- in this chart
(2) 1637 - 1598, see bottom chart
(b) Use Deflators (to be elaborated)
_____________________________________
Sunday, 06/22/14 01:38:03 PM
Calculate the Pullback target
Target = deflator coefficients * wave terminal point
where the deflator coefficients are:
0.79012, 0.8100, 0.89198, 0.92456, 0.96191
______________________________________
1635.60 = 2019.26 * 0.81000 (1634.30 0.8093579)
1595.45 = 2019.26 * 0.79012 (1605.72 0.7951999)
1615.53 = (1595.45+1635.60)/2
1801.14 = 2019.26 * 0.89198
popular Deflators 80%, 85% ( 20%, 15% off)
1615.41 = 2019.26 * 0.80
1716.37 = 2019.26 * 0.85
(c) 2000-2007 trend line support around 1600
>> where is .. .. gdl
He is doing the "Forensic Analysis" with POKERSAM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/T-A-ETF-AND-INDEX-4503/
rab120: miscellaneous for short term
bluechip231: Thank you ( TBA - To be announced. )
6/7 trading days before FOMC open their mouths again, fuzzy read.
FWIW:
-------------------------------------
'beta' activated his plan:
'beta' 'Oct 17 2014, 08:35 AM' post='708097'
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=156856
Reloading Short SPX 1895, First target 1860
Bounced on schedule. :)
Stop 1916.
'K Wave' 'Oct 17 2014, 09:14 AM' post='708109'
RUT back to under performing again...watching that one for the last month has been absolute GOLD....
Last 20+ trading days among the best in my career...
SOX/TRAN also stalling here while ES continued its run...
Methinks ES likely tops out somewhere between 1890 and 1904, and with action in RUT/SOX/TRAN, we may top in the lower end of the range...
SPX coming back up into potential big time resistance.....I highly doubt it overcomes that without a battle....
10/17/14 SPX
The 'standard' bounce is expected to poke into 1884.93 - 1896.53 (0.3236-0.382, 2019.26-1820.66).
For further speculation:
(1) we will need to see if the bounce gets rejection before 1900.99-1909.33 ('strong' resistance).
(2) FOMC 10/29-30
10/15
The pullback from 2019.26 may deploy into a single zig zag sequence. the first down lag is about to conclude, with a bounce up to (TBA), and then down to 1683 +/-.
Interim (Preliminary)
10/16/14 SPX
SPX is flirting with 1867.53.
intraday high 1867.82 - in progress
- 1867.53 = [0.236:(2019.26:1820.66)]
- 1867.53 is the minimum bounce requirement
>> Oil & Dollar
FWIW
----------------------------------------
Jim Rickards - Obama Ending Alliance with Saudi Arabia and Killing the Petrodollar
10/15/2014
Published on Oct 6, 2014
http://www.discreetbullion.com/1776/jim-rickards-obama-ending-alliance-with-saudi-arabia-and-killing-the-petrodollar
sold SPXU
sold all core positions. (GTC Sell activated a few days ago)
will hold Corp Bonds till maturity.
for trading: i will wait for new opportunity on inverse ETF
The great transition (7) NO WAY OUT
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Your truely Saturday, 02/15/14 02:07:32 PM
"calls for the Fed to support the economy will permit the Fed to broaden the array of instruments that it purchases" (PCR)
When economy growth undergoes the head wind, those notorious Fall street Oligarchy will bent their knees in front of Queen Janet, hail loudly: “Your majesty, for the sake of Hoi polloi, we beg your mercy, may we have an QE forever”. Thus the signal Her majesty is waiting for. How cynical it is.
The dire situation simply cannot count on Monetary policy Queen alone anymore, The King has to flex his muscles as soon as possible, Otherwise, the drama is coming to an end.
America in Decay
The Sources of Political Dysfunction
By Francis Fukuyama
From the Council on Foreign Relations September/October 2014 Issue
Yoshihiro Francis Fukuyama (born October 27, 1952) is an American political scientist, political economist, and author.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama
An excerpt:
full text:
http://atlasmonitor.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/america-in-decay-the-sources-of-political-dysfunction-by-francis-fukuyama/
original link: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141729/francis-fukuyama/america-in-decay
NO WAY OUT
The U.S. political system has decayed over time because its traditional system of checks and balances has deepened and become increasingly rigid. In an environment of sharp political polarization, this decentralized system is less and less able to represent majority interests and gives excessive representation to the views of interest groups and activist organizations that collectively do not add up to a sovereign American people.
The depressing bottom line is that given how self-reinforcing the country’s political malaise is, and how unlikely the prospects for constructive incremental reform are, the decay of American politics will probably continue until some external shock comes along to catalyze a true reform coalition and galvanize it into action.
Your truely wrote 8 months ago:
Tuesday, 02/11/14 01:26:46 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97129069
The force of the long awaited genuine Change will come from the External, a powerful catalyst that prompts the Changing process, and ignites those intrinsic virtues embedding in our great Americans’.
ahimsak . . . . . . .
>>(ahimsak) I have said over and over, a bull dies first
>> with a 10% drop followed by a quick rally up.
>> Lets see if that plays out here.
I visited your 'gallery', impressive works.
this post was the one i replied to you on 09/25. Indeed, market will offer us another one.
Interim (Preliminary) short-to-middle term outlook
(1) sold partial SPXU with 22% gain, about 140-145 x 3 SPX points)
(2) fast market: intraday low 1820.66, (1820.35 = FIB 0.707 2019.26-1737.92)
http://www.chartupload.com/images/39536720897889077515.jpg
(3)Interim (Preliminary) short-to-middle term outlook
The pullback from 2019.26 may deploy into a single zig zag sequence. the first down lag is about to conclude, with a bounce up to (TBA), and then down to 1683 +/-.
Prior Post:
- (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
- latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
10/15/14 SPX (2)
intraday low 1823.87 - in progress
Bull gave away the last defending line 1833.62-1832.87, (see table)
-------------------------------------
10/15/14 10:47:34 AM
2. (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
3. latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
fast market, chart can't catch up
10/15/14 SPX
in progress:
intraday low 1837.22
intraday bounce high: 1866.49 (10:03AM EDT)
1. (10/02) SPX 1866.93-1868.47 has been met. Now, it is becoming the immediate resistance
2. (10/04) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32, pending.
3. latest trajectory suggests 1838. 1827, 1811, fast market, TBAdjusted
review projections
level 2019.19, actual 2019.26
date 09/18/14, actual 09/19/14
short term archives
Friday, 09/19/14 01:13:57 PM
09/19/14 SPX Getting closer .....
We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, it is from a minimum 6 Trading Day away, 23 TD, to maximum 77 TD. In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
you take this Bear Viagra®, and wait for the ‘signal’.
No Jinx please.
(EDIT reason why: 10/01 link )
Thursday, 09/25/14 04:51:02 PM
i am waiting for a 'lower-high' ( illustration chart ) to buy inverse ETF.
(EDIT: did you buy any reverse ETF? Now, it is more than 100 (SPX) points profit ... )
Thursday, 10/02/14 10:56:10 AM
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
Saturday, 10/04/14 04:03:55 PM
Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32.
Friday, 02/28/14 10:53:40 AM
Index takes out important pivots 1860.11 (highlighted in green in the wave table) & 1861.61, the 1900 zone is becoming ‘reachable’; whether the target 1944.65 (highlighted in red) will be materialized is depending on how the pullback looks like.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/05946992392831121277.jpg
Saturday, 05/24/14 01:57:15 PM
imho, 1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.
Monday, 08/25/14 12:24:20 AM
SPX index is in up trend.
Projections:
short term high target zone: 1994.08-2019.19 , see chart.
http://www.chartupload.com/images/61360258892975648112.jpg
10/13/14 SPX
in progress:
intraday high: 1912.09
intraday low: 1890.67
immediate resistance: 1911.79 ( see first chart)
immediate support: 1892.63-1893.64
short term resistance: 1924-1927 (approx)
short term support: 1884.61, 1881.58
(1) (10/04) "first flat expansion in the (seemingly) ongoing 1-2-1-(2-1-....) downward wave sequence."
(2) Flat expansion with lower right peak is bearish.
Friday, 09/26/14 11:55:59 AM
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32
Thursday, 10/02/14 10:56:10 AM
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
Now, 1936.38-1938.32 is becoming the resistance
with two failed attempts 1936.98, 1935.56
I painted it with red color at the time index still above the zone, no mistake.
Microchip: We believe that another industry correction has-begun
It Took Just One Sentence From A Semiconductor CEO To Send Tech Stocks Into Free Fall
Myles Udland Oct. 10, 2014, 1:40 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/microchip-revenue-warning-october-10-2014-10
"We believe that another industry correction has begun and that this correction will be seen more broadly across the industry in the near future."
"Microchip often sees the turn of the industry ahead of others in the semiconductor industry,"
SOX likely flashing big warning here
K Wave Oct. 10, 2014, 07:46 PM
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=156645
It appears to be a very significant, somewhat historic event, that those who are only looking at SPX may be ignoring at their peril...
Insight China (8) China automobile Chapter One
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
China Jier has supplied sophisticated high-speed press lines for world well-know car maker FORD in Detroit & Kentucky plant.
Jier: http://www.euroblech.com/english/exhibitor-profile/?exhibitor=103174
China, the world's largest automobile producer won a seat in automobile stamping technology, aims on taking advance in welding, painting and assembling, to become a fully self-sustained automobile manufacture (four core processes: stamping, welding, painting and assembling)
CHINA: Jier tooling wins Ford stamp of approval
By Tony Lewis | 15 July 2013
Jier Machine Tool Group has won its sixth order from Ford for high-speed stamping equipment, breaking the stranglehold that German companies have had for the past 20 years.
"This order is the largest single export order that Chinese machine tool producers have ever received in the field of high-end machine tools. It also means that, for the first time, several complete stamping lines made by Chinese companies are being used by a well-known car manufacturer in a developed country," said Wu Bolin, the vice-president of the executive committee of the China Machine Tool & Tool Builders' Association.
China has been the world's largest metalworking machine tool consumer for 11 consecutive years and the largest producer for four years in a row.
http://www.just-auto.com/news/jier-tooling-wins-ford-stamp-of-approval_id136227.aspx
http://www.guancha.cn/Project/2014_10_09_274207.shtml
Goldman: third quarter consensus revenue estimates fell 3%
Goldman Views On The Dollar, Oil Prices, And Earnings
by Mark Melin October 09, 2014, 4:54 pm
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/goldman-views-on-the-dollar-oil-prices-and-earnings/
S&P 500 consensus estimate fall In large part due to the strengthening dollar, third quarter consensus revenue estimates fell three percent recently, with every sector falling with the exception of health care.
chart: http://cdn1.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Stocks-Goldman-2.jpg
10/10/14 SPX
in progress:
(1) intraday high 1936.98 (9:45am EDT), 1935.56 (12:33pm)
The former critical support 1936.38-1938.32 is becoming an immediate resistance)
(2) intraday low 1912.84
standard retracement 0.382 @1911.79 ( = [0.382, (2019.26,1739.92)] )
short term resistance 1942,1953
Thursday, 10/02/14 10:56:10 AM
SPX/DJI are both poking into their critical support zone 1936.38-1938.32, 16710-16770 respectively.
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
Geo-Economic - The great transition (6) BMB
Beijing-Moscow-Berlin strategic trade and commercial alliance
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Tomgram: Pepe Escobar, New Silk Roads and an Alternate Eurasian Century
Posted by Pepe Escobar at 4:19pm, October 5, 2014.
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter @TomDispatch.
Can China and Russia Squeeze Washington Out of Eurasia?
The Future of a Beijing-Moscow-Berlin Alliance
By Pepe Escobar
link
Highly condensed excerpt:
A specter haunts the fast-aging “New American Century”: the possibility of a future Beijing-Moscow-Berlin strategic trade and commercial alliance. Let’s call it the BMB.
China’s new geopolitical power play in Eurasia has few parallels in modern history.
In a reverse Marco Polo-style journey, ...... Taken together, it’s what Beijing refers to as the Silk Road Economic Belt.
The end result should prove a triumph of integrated infrastructure that will connect China to Western Europe and the Mediterranean Sea, the old Roman imperial Mare Nostrum, in every imaginable way.
German businessmen and industrialists have been noting another emerging reality: as much as the final market for made-in-China products traveling on future new Silk Roads will be Europe, the reverse also applies. In one possible commercial future, China is slated to become Germany’s top trading partner by 2018, surging ahead of both the U.S. and France.
Three months ago, German chancellor Angela Merkel visited Beijing. Hardly featured in the news was the political acceleration of a potentially groundbreaking project: an uninterrupted high-speed rail connection between Beijing and Berlin. When finally built, it will prove a transportation and trade magnet for dozens of nations along its route from Asia to Europe. Passing through Moscow, it could become the ultimate Silk Road integrator for Europe and perhaps the ultimate nightmare for Washington.
Berlin’s geostrategic interests seem to be slowly diverging from Washington’s. German industrialists, in particular, appear eager to pursue unlimited commercial deals with Russia and China. in the long term, signal the end of the era in which Germany, however politely dealt with, was essentially an American satellite.
Someday, it’s possible that voices of sanity in Washington will be wondering aloud how the U.S. “lost” Russia to China.
In the endgame of such a process, the U.S. might find itself progressively squeezed out of Eurasia, with the BMB emerging as a game-changer. Place your bets soon. They’ll be called in by 2025.
Insight China (7) AC electrical/diesel-electric/diesel-hydraulic locomotives
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Not many years ago, China export concentrated in ‘Gadgets’ such as products for Toys"R"Us®, That was the impression about China. The spectrum changes quietly and dramatically. The competition is intense
China just overtook US as the world's largest economy, IMF says
By Mike Bird, Business Insider October 8, 2014
By the end of 2014, China will make up 16.48% of the world's purchasing-power adjusted GDP (or $17.632 trillion), and the US will make up just 16.28% (or $17.416 trillion).
link
chart: http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2014/10/08/635483860084566196.jpg
Shenhua model KM98AH is the world largest AC electric Haul Train
Successful road test, total 110 columns Shenhua model KM98 30 tons axle/ load 100 tons special coal vehicle hauled by KM98AH. length 1573 meters, load 11,000 tons, overall weight 13,420 tons
2013-08-16 22:30:07
Workers line up for a ceremony on the release of No. 15000 40 tons axle mine vehicle.
260 this kind mine vehicle will be shipped to BHP Billiton, Australia
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2013/8/16/635122887084930281635122628080781250.jpg
Custom design Train ships to more than 50 nations worldwide.
Ship to Thailand to replace the aging made-in-USA train
Uzbekistan, custom design to handle minus 30C cold environment
Bangladesh
Turkey
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2013/11/29/6352134013449509627.jpg
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2013/11/29/63521341855973719820131129102.jpg
South Africa
Brazil
Argentina
( Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner )
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2013/6/8/6350627992317643655.jpg
New deli
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2013/10/27/635184922068375538metro-coaches.jpg
Cambodia
Vietnam
to name just a few
Engineering resource
High speed rail train network control systems team
Germany Replaces China as World’s Trade-Surplus Boogeyman
Germany has replaced China as the largest surplus economy in the world.
chart: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-EU092_SURPLU_G_20140930112954.jpg
read more: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/09/30/germany-replaces-china-as-worlds-trade-surplus-boogeyman/
10/04/14 SPX
(1) short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
(2) short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32
(3) The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
(4) Interim downside targets 1814.36-1804.32.
synopsis
When SPX climbs above the bear gauge 1992.24-1982.21, the odds is in favor for bull.
The first chart shows a few key resistance. In specific, 1986.37 is a popular one that has been populated around the cyber world. It is the first flat expansion top in the (seemingly) ongoing 1-2-1-(2-1-....) downward wave sequence. When bull takes out 1986.37, it also invalidates the ongoing 1-2-1... bearish sequence. But, bull still need to deal with the pivotal zone 1994-2019, see quote.
09/04/14 SPX pivotal zone 1994-2019
On 08/21, SPX pokes into the (weather-vane type) pivotal zone 1994-2019. It has been 10 trading days without seeing “punching through” this zone so that the odd is increasing that we are getting closer to the final advance.
Geo-Economic: The great transition (5) Hong Kong Singapore
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
The pearl of East
Hong Kong is known for its expansive skyline and deep natural harbor. Hong Kong ranks the third most important leading international financial centre, after London and New York City, Hong Kong has a major capitalist service economy characterized by low taxation and free trade.
Due to (1)(2), Hong Kong has lost its shine slowly.
Occupy Central with Love and Peace,OCLP (Occupy Central)
is a developing story, the following commentary from The Guardian (UK) gives a cut-to-the point view.
China is Hong Kong’s future – not its enemy
Protesters cry democracy but most are driven by dislocation and resentment at mainlanders’ success
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/30/china-hong-kong-future-protesters-cry-democracy
Martin Jacques , The Guardian, Tuesday 30 September 2014 14.45
Much has changed since 1997. The Chinese economy has grown many times, the standard of living of the Chinese likewise. If you want to access the Chinese market nowadays, why move to Hong Kong when you can go straight to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and a host of other major cities?
Hong Kong has lost its role as the gateway to China. Where previously Hong Kong was China’s unrivalled financial centre, now it is increasingly dwarfed by Shanghai. Until recently, Hong Kong was by far China’s largest port: now it has been surpassed by Shanghai and Shenzhen, and Guangzhou will shortly overtake it.
Protesters cry democracy but most are driven by dislocation and resentment at mainlanders’ success
10/02/14 SPX/DJI poking into the critical support zone
SPX/DJI are both poking into their critical support zone 1936.38-1938.32, 16710-16770 respectively.
The consequence of downward breaking this critical support zone will open the door to see SPX 1866.93-1868.47. ...
archive:
09/26/14 SPX/DJI check points
[A] SPX
short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32, (1938.85, wave 1.500)
[B] DJI
short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
Geo-Economic- The-great-transition-(4): After Abenomics
Geo-Economic Series include:
- The great transition that reshape the world orders
- Insight China - outline the competing status in the world economy
- Miscellaneous hot Geo-Economic events
Let’s rewind the history tape:
Yoshihiko Noda has been labeled as a “Pro China” politician , He was the Prime Minister of Japan from 2011 to 2012.
Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda (Right) and China's Premier Wen Jiabao attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, December 25, 2011.
photo: http://himg2.huanqiu.com/attachment2010/111225/9870a8f17f.jpg
Japan and China agreed to start formal talks early 2012 on a free trade pact that would also include South Korea
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/25/uk-china-japan-korea-idUKTRE7BO07W20111225
http://www.oldkids.cn/blog/blog_con.php?blogid=287223
China–Japan–South Korea (FTA) Free Trade Agreement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Japan%E2%80%93South_Korea_Free_Trade_Agreement
The China–Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement is a proposed free trade agreement between China, Japan and South Korea. Negotiations on the agreement were set in motion in 2012. The first official talks on the matter were held in Seoul from 26–28 March 2013. Trade among the three economies totaled US$690 billion in 2011; however, progress on negotiations may be hampered by ongoing territorial disputes among the participants.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
September 26, 2014 by Doug Short
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php
Japan's 4th Recession Since 2008: Why Should We Care?
On Wednesday, September 10th, Lakshman Achuthan appeared on Wall Street Journal Live, where he stated that Japan is on track for another recession. He included comments about what that means for Europe and the United States.
"the situation in the U.S. is not qualitatively different from those in the other major economies." He concludes with the following observations about central bank strategies:
Abenomics Failing SEP10, 2014
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-abenomics-failing
That is why Fed Chairman Janet Yellen now admits the possibility that the economy is suffering from some form of “secular stagnation,” where “a negative shock could push economies against the zero lower bound,” and acknowledges that “we will have to worry about these episodes more often.” Prominent central bankers like her and Mr. Draghi have begun to recognize this reality, which is why a version of Abenomics is now on the table in the Eurozone. But, if Abenomics is already failing, it may deal a serious conceptual blow to the mainstream policy narrative that Abenomics (or Draghinomics) is the answer to “secular stagnation,” potentially opening the door to more radical prescriptions.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/09/22/rigged-gold-price-distorts-perception-economic-reality-paul-craig-roberts-dave-kranzler/
For a period the Federal Reserve can support the dollar’s exchange value by pressuring Japan and the European Central Bank to print their currencies with which to support the dollar with purchases in the foreign exchange market. But eventually the large US trade deficits produced by offshoring the production of goods and services sold into US markets and the collapse of the middle class and tax base caused by jobs offshoring will destroy the value of the US dollar.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization to Take in India, Pakistan
http://tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com/2014/09/13/shanghai-cooperation-organization-to-take-in-india-pakistan/
Posted: September 13, 2014
Admitting India as a SCO member may drive a wedge between India and the US so that the US cannot use India to encircle China. It will enable SCO to break out of its boundary of former Soviet Union plus China. When India, China and Pakistan are all SCO members India’s relations with China and Pakistan will improve due to intensified communications and efforts for mutual interests in the organization.
For China, India may join China in developing the Silk Road on the Sea initiated by China instead of opposing the Road for fear of China’s expansion into the Indian Ocean. This blogger believes that if India joints SCO, the Russia-India-China alliance may become a reality.
10/01/14 Misc
SPX bounces off 1941.72 vs. 0.382 @1940.99 (highlighted in green color in this chart)
SPX intraday low: 1941.72
- frame No. 2: 0.382 @ 1940.99
- critical support 1936.38-1938.32
DJI intraday low: 16776.13 vs. projected 16770
- short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
09/26/14 SPX/DJI check points
[A] SPX
short term bear gauge: 1992.24-1982.21
short term critical support: 1936.38-1938.32, (1938.85, wave 1.500)
[B] DJI
short term critical support 16720 (16710-16770)
wrote earlier:
Review:
09/19/14: A real time Alert: We are getting closer to see the beginning of the BIG flush that may last 6/7 months, from a minimum 6 Trading Day away, 23 TD, to maximum 77 TD. In a realistic way, it is from any time now.
08/01/14: I came out two dates: 08/22 +/- & 09/18 +/- , don't know which one will dominate, it could be a nested zone. (to be elaborated when transpires)
After the real time Alert, SPX commenced the long awaited pullback, it cut through the 50 SMA. Meanwhile DJI showed more than 200 points daily fluctuations. Can we say indices has started the beginning of the BIG downward flush ?
There are two technical evidence to say that Index is about to see the long awaited large pullbacks:
(1) Major index marked ATH & reversed quickly on 09/19, one day late than the projected 09/18 time stamp.
(2) The Fibonacci Time Zone ratio is very close to 1.382 between the two green colored bull zone ( in the bottom chart). More precisely speaking, the ratio is 744/543 = 1.368, A perfect 1.382 would be on 09/29-30, for such a large time frame, just a handful of trading days deviation is considered a good fit.
Discussions:
Usually, there are cascading short cycle harmonics before and after a dominant cycle, These harmonics are signals to validate the dominant cycle but not necessary has to show up; We got a low 1904.78 on 08/07/14, We may see another short cycle harmonics on 09/29-30, or 10/22-23. as long as the coming short cycle harmonic is either a secondary Low, or a lower Higher that will corroborate a formative high has been reached, presumably it was the peak on 09/19. The coming 09/29-30 time slot seems too close to the 09/19 Peak, it could be more logical to see a secondary Low or Lower-High on 10/22-23. No one knows for sure, be mindful. It is still too soon to draw the conclusion. How to trade is the state of ART at each trader’s own discretionary judgments.