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IMO 255 seeing cheaper prices later, 75% sheep mentality.
It is hard to see the decline as a belief in the value of the dollar (even though the dollar has been strong)
For whatever reason the precious metals have been depressed, imo irrationally, and so those that produce them are stressed as is any company when its product drops in price but its cost of production do not.
I realize that is pretty simple-minded, but how I see it.
PS This is getting so perverse. Equities and gold being said to stabilize and appear to rise in the overnight - because the less than positive GDP data and recent China data indicate economy is less good than the picture the Fed had painted, hence the pullback from easing may be further in the future.
The markets go up due to the economy in US staying closer to stall mode, down when recovery seems to possibly be on the horizon. wtf
Have a good night - need to go tend some citrus irrigation so offline likely until open.
That makes sense. To me talk of "where is the bottom" should probably be more like "how much further down does this cliff go". I agree that calling a bottom is tough, and avg'ing value works, but sometimes I do need to sense whether it still looks like a bottomless pit or just a hole of some reasonably small size. Today it is looking like a toss up to me. (you are up late/early)
That was a good move (even earlier would have been better too). The exploration companies with very interesting assets (i.e. still able to raise capital) have finally also been slaughtered (PVG, SA, CSI for examples). When a company can be near to a production move on a world-class deposit and still get trashed show how strong this down-turn is. I keep pondering over the potential for similarities to how the PM equities bottomed before the general equities hit the wall in the liquidity freeze-up, aka 2007/8 ff, even though we have not yet seen the wild, large swings up and down in the general market (DOW) as presaged that cliff jump.
It is time for a careful mix of very selected buying, willing to avg down with new bottoms, and playing the cash is king and keep powder ready, as there are certainly bargains out there today but how much better will the bargins get?
KC ? It is almost H2. It is difficult to imagine that a full Q has not been enough for results from the KC effort last winter to be known by mgmt. Of course we know the results must not be in as they would have to be released as, positive or negative, the results are material information to any investor. I hope this KC effort is not going to be like the last work at EL where it took a year for EXS to release any info, saying that the consultant doing the analysis was "still working on it" for quite some time.
Wasn't there a large debt instrument due to be paid off about now (June or I think it was July) ? It has been pretty quiet here (and from the company) so I was surprised to see a new post (even though it was gone before I could catch it), almost as surprised as I am to see FAU is still not sub-penny.
It has been bloody, that is for certain.
I just do not have a handle on "the bottom" given that past manipulation is not a valid predictor of future manipulation. (what a mouthful!)
That's an understatement, and a bit difficult to move.
Even back when gold was only $400 I used to ponder how in crisis even 1/4 oz eagles would be overkill (excessively large value) for many barter type situations, whereas silver then seemed more practical. That is even more true now (and imo even more so in the future) although a 1 oz silver could become overkill too.
PS Thanks for the offer, for sharing your forecasts and many "heads up"x.
I will bring the self-waxing car wash soap and the miniRV when I roll south if/when I take you up on that offer.
BTW I do agree that in the long-run purchase at 1.63 will turn out to be a very good move.
We are close, and I was being generous when I posted cutbacks at 1400 and believe my prior more detailed examination was something like 1325 or 1350 iirc.
It is too bad that the way the numbers are reported working from the net profit figure that they report is the most certain (and to me the only clearly valid and accessible) way to get at the full costs.
The bottomline take-away for me is that with full suspension of development and exploration BRD does appear able to continue, marginally profitably, for extended periods with gold below even Goldman's most recent forecast.
So IMO BRD does appear to be a survivor, whereas a number of newer, smaller producers are not in that position if gold stays suppressed. With luck cost reductions, access to some of the higher grades that have been found near the current operations, etc., will allow BRD to keep some of the growth cap ex and exploration ongoing, but worse case it does look to remain cash positive if forced to curtail these (assuming gold does not dive beyond what is currently imagined as possible, and/or inflation does not drive up costs wildly).
Is that just one wash ?
Be careful as I do not live that far away.
In all respect I do see your logic, and the last time silver dipped into the $18 range I loaded up and obviously did well for it. This time around however I am very cautious of the use of projecting to future based on past behaviors as it is obvious that the (perhaps only) behaviors that are significant are those of the forces manipulating gold/silver.
OMG Sup, what does the blue downtrend line extrapolate to for an intercept?
It looks to be below $1 . . . $0.87 ?
point taken, although perhaps with greatly reduced new and refinery recovered silver due to low price the issue of delivery failure might gain some higher visibility as it would be a persistent problem.
I would guess you are correct about already trimming back on cap ex, and I bet with the dip now toward 1200 exploration also. I do not that they indicated making headway on cost reduction in recent NR update as an anticipatory step, and I imagine that effort is also seeing deepening cuts.
I differ in the numbers presented in analysis. Using your suggested 1300, which is appearing unrealistic for the near quarter, the gross on 25,000 would be 30.9 M, not 32 M as 2000 of the 25,000 is sold at 500/oz for the gold stream. If "cash costs" on that production is 21 M that leaves 9.9 M from which one needs to subtract other costs (non-production costs, admin, debt service, tax, etc) in order to get to free cash flow. My numbers work leads me to believe that below 1400 gold there is no net free cash flow for use on the cap ex or exploration.
If gold does not see a quick bounce back, which I do not expect, we will likely soon hear about the contraction of BRD cap ex, which by my number scribbles if cut to zero (perhaps needing significant reduction in exploration expenditure also) could make the production side of the house barely self-sustaining.
the fall today (-13%) is in line with that for many others in the industry (compare AUN -12.5%, SVLC -11.5% and those are in production, or compare to the cream of the crop exploration asset holders today, like PVG -11%, SA -10% )
Overall I am somewhat surprised ECC has resisted the market downtrend as much as it has this past month.
but the paper criminals may be biting themselves in the a$sbehind as with production shut down the inability to stand for delivery on physical as it is demanded will get rather obvious
Thank you for clarifying, as that is exactly what I meant, that I feel Robert has made something (a device) that can heat water. You or I could also if we wanted to junk our microwave oven, coat some parts in hardware store purchased rubberizing, and immerse the result in a tank of water with an inlet and outlet, all surrounded in some shielding (which is possibly not so necessary as given sufficient surrounding water there would be little ambient microwave radiation to present a danger).
I do feel Robert has something that heats water. It appears that it is not too reliable, or not well tuned.
Of the 4 options you present my inclination is close to your number 3, which was stated as
imo one cannot lump all three together as "these clowns" as if they are of one mind. It is possible that Robert believes in this, that there can be a marketable product, and even that he has held this belief all along. It is also separately possible that Andrew and Sumerville and associates now under indictment believed that they had a shell and a sufficiently plausible invention to make some cash regardless of where the invention and its development effort went.
I was only saying that if as in your post I believed that there was not water heating device, rather just the hot air of a scam, then indeed yes, carrying on would make no sense (except to prolong the time of freedom before the inevitable, as was commented) and would in fact just dig the hole deeper providing fresh evidence for the prosecution. But, if there was something, even a dead-end something, which is what I feel is the situation, then keeping it going would in fact help to create a stronger case that this was not a fraudulent and deceptive scam, so I cannot agree with your saying it makes not sense that they carry on, but only because I feel that Robert has created something, perhaps something that works reliably, or some day with enough re-tweaking could work reliably. Again, imo Robert may think this is something great, but I feel it has no market of any size sufficient for it to become a product.
yes they are, and beginning of Q3 is beginning of H2, which is upon us without released testing results or performance data
notice I said before end of H1 and then clarified that I did mean H1 and not Q1 (i.e. I never used Q2 in the post)
yes - to reiterate the stated deadline for release of results was H1 2013
So were one to ask
or August, a more typical month for such
Deadline missed: Test results before end of H1 2013, which is the last time the voice of FB drew a line in the sand with a specific delivery statement.
and where is it said the tests are 2 minutes long ?
Robert has a business already why would he want to be in a scam?
I agree with you, that they just lessen their chances of the investigation being dropped, etc. and that it makes no sense for them to continue on this way BUT ONLY IF as you say the device is fictitious. If however they do have a device that does heat water, as I tend to believe is the case, but that just doesn't have a chance of becoming the marketable products they have claimed, then continuing on makes much sense to me along the lines that n1tr08urner explored/outlined (i.e. facing jail, delay at all costs, and along the way perhaps build a case that they are not fraudulent).
RPM now significantly undervalued.
Down a further 10.5% on Toronto exchange today, following yesterday when RPM was one of the exchange's most active in its major fall.
At the moment PRM's asset portfolio are being valued at approximately zero, as the market cap now is $24.88 million, with the settlement providing $10 million cash and a royalty (expected to pay out over 4 years starting Jan 1, 2014) of 3.4% of 39.4 million silver equivalent ounces which is the value over that time of 1.3396 million ounces of silver. So assuming that value over time is at least $11 per ounce RPM at the moment has a market cap of (less than the value of) the settlement.
For a company with its own assets, with resource estimates, with a now strong treasury, with a JV with a major and a mid-tier, and with a royalty stream to monetize one and a third million ounces of silver over the four years starting a half year from now this appears to be a firesale at present.
I assume that the voltage applied to the magnetrons has a "sweet spot" with efficiency of microwave emission suffering with divergence from that "sweet spot", or, that the microwaves emitted need to have their narrow band of spectrum centered on optimal for water to absorb which could be adjusted by tweaking the voltage.
As for tuning transformers, now that is a mystery if the transformers are not designed to be variable as it is pretty much fixed in the windings and whatever core or other field conductors are present.
Personally I find it more than odd that, with so much time to prepare noone at intertek did not take note of the specified 1 second requirement ! That a specific person across the continent is needed to change the entry in a field on a screen in the software from 30 to 1 ? That tries my patience about being talked down to . . . like data is never recorded at other than the default ?!
I will need to digest this overnight, as my first reaction is one of disbelief
My guess is speculators that were into Rye only on basis it would be awarded the claims causing a big boost in shareprce to sell into. As it is clear that will not happen pull out and use the money elsewhere. It is hard to say actually, but that is best I have figured, as being perplexed at reaction to the news I was also wondering on that. My take is more that Rye is now pretty well-funded, will have a royalty stream, so is well placed to execute on its portfolio and the JV with GG and MUX.
Indeed. It pays to keep an eye on what is happening in the area where you have familiarity and operate.
And, speaking of operate, the MSR is NOT like a lot of NSRs, the ones that only have real value if and when at some future date . . . that is like Coeur giving Rye the profit from a bit more than amillion AG oz eq. as an effortless cashstream for a number of years.
It appears the market is disappointed at what Rye got. This could have spread out over many years of appeals, with Rye's pocket for lawyering getting stressed despite high probability of a Rye victory.
my oh my . . . that really positions Rye ( and the work Rye did on the claims shows Coeur has much more potential at that mine than apparently they had thought or made public, as it had been sort of on an end of life scenario but Rye seems to have shown quite a bit of good grade adjacent.
$10M cash and a NSR stream
hmmm I checked FB before that post and did not see anything newer than the June 4 stuff.
If one is awaiting disposition of parts isn't one simply waiting for part to be disposed, as in the disposal of the parts was complicated and took forever as the unit had crossed the border into the USA and the parts were deemed hazardous waste requiring specific and special disposal techniques to correctly facilitate their final disposition being acceptable under the laws.
yes, some rise . . . surprising as the NR had no new info as far as I could tell but just reiterated prior guidance confirming things are on track
to that I do agree - strong hands are
a) holding their gold positions
b) extending their gold positions
c) in cases, paper shorting to leverage their scale in b)
Three weeks now since the FB post of June 4 saying more testing at Intertek was to be completed "next week" which would mean completed two weeks, now going on three, ago.
So does anyone believe anything has happened (except for maybe leaving the country) in the meantime ?
The old no news is good news just does not apply to this one, imo.
I believe it is not that simple and transparent.
My broker holds shares I have purchased and transacts those as anonymous or house. It does not mean that the broke owns the shares, only how they are held. Similarly, with the 400 oz bars that are registered eligible in the warehouse, just because they are held as house does not mean they are ultimately owned by Goldman.
no, it actually is not
when that report shows GS standing for delivery it may be due to its own holdings or the holdings of one of its clients, and ditto sells (and this observation, GS itself vs cliennts, also applies whether physical or paper).
It is easy to confuse what Goldman Sachs does with its own investments with the reported numbers for GS holdings which include those of its major clients whose holdings are under their clients control.
well, def agree with your bottom line (closing statement)
good to see LSG still expects that after September they will no longer be operating at a loss (if Goldman's new projection for the price of gold proves untrue anyway)