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I have 1170 for the SP500. I hope we don't go that low. Or, at least, I'd like to see a nice rally for a week or so first.
I have 9500 for the DJIA. And 1990 for the NASDAQ.
It's going higher in my opinion.
What compelling reason is there for buying financials?
I look out onto the horizon, and I can't see why the financial would stage a comeback. A bounce, yes, but nothing more.
I think we may see that 3-4 range on the XLF faster than even I thought it would get there.
There will be a short term top
The danger is going to be the 13 yrs or so of sideways movement (a very narrow trading range) we going to have after the crash in a few years. It'll be hard to make a buck, long or short.
Some sector, like always will flourish, but when the crash happens, no stock is safe.
Hoping the markets start a big rally Monday. God knows they're due.
Still looking for 19XX on the NASDAQ......
BTW, DDM may be another one you'll like if you like the SSO.
It's 2x the DJIA.
I'm WAY under water in that one: 65
But, you should be fine. Maybe a bounce Monday afternoon or Tuesday. :~)
The XLF is due for a rally..... financials need some 'news' to make it happen, the you can jump back in the SKF.
There's a nice gap in the SKF around 137.... that would be an ideal place to re-enter, imo.....
Don't kick yourself.... opportunities come and go everyday.
No, but nice trade you made there.... :~)
Vista (32-bit version) question: Anyone know of a good, free registry cleaner?
RegCleaner doesn't work, nor does EasyCleaner 2.0
Thanks for any suggestions.
dieselfuel
Well folks, maybe this is the beginning of 'the rally'. There's a gap on the SKF @ 137.75 let's see if it gets filled.
SKF's down about 15 points as I type....
Also re: crude
Looks like India, as well as China and Mexico, have removed the subsidies on oil. No more cheap fuel for the people.
All that, as well as our own lowering demand, are going to drive down the price of crude.
Still looking for crude to hit 154 before 'the big one' hits.
The past few days are a nice start, though..... ;~)
Thanks.
Still waiting for the markets to rally.
Then we should see another sell-off to take out the March lows before we hit 'the' bottom.
SP500 as low as 1120 (gulp!).
WOW.... p/c ratio @ 1.64... I have never seen it that high before... VIX is still relatively low at 25.5 .....
I heard recently, that the attack will come after U.S. elections, but before our new president is sworn into office.
But, who knows......
Wow.... 216 sure is coming up fast.
Once the XLF takes out 20, it will sink fast. The XLF is due for a rally, though. I thought today would be the start of some short covering, but I guess it will have to wait til tomorrow.
Looks like 20 is 'the line in the sand' that needs to be broken.
Yes, I'm 'all in' (again!) with the DDM and SSO.
WAHZ:
What has me surprised is the fact that volitility is still relatively low after this sell-off.
The VIX is at 23.39 and the p/c ratio closed at 1.11
My indicators are saying WAY OVERSOLD! They could stay pegged another day or two.
I'm inclined to think we have a relief rally either Monday or Tuesday. Could be a one day rally, though, before more downward movement in the indexes.
Got an eye on GM. Looking for a big sell-off day in that one. Should then have a nice 'pop'.
DDM 61.99 :>)
XLF: Getting close to 'bounce time' sometime between today and next Wed. Could rally back to 24.64, but should be able to hit at least 23.75
Still looking for 13.61.....
More: avg. price 65.10
Fletch: Nice chart. As you can see, CHK is in it's 5 wave up.
How long can it go up....? It's anyone's guess. But, once it's over, it's going down hard and fast.
Just curious, how will you know when to get out of a stock like CHK? You seem to be a "buy and holder", at some point, one has to sell to make a profit.
Just curious, that's all...
I think a lot of people care. The price of commodities, especially crude, it what's holding back our economy and the stock markets.
High commodity prices act like a tax. Raise taxes, and the people and the economy suffer. And, so goes the markets.
Thanks for the post, and it'll interesting to see if this is the start of a sizable correction in crude prices. Would be nice to get it under $100/bl.
65.65 :~) Will be looking to add more on weakness tomorrow.
The SSO looks ready for a nice pop. A good entry point would right here @64.86
Any lower tomorrow, would only be a better entry.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SSO#chart1:symbol=sso;range=6m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
The SSO will have my full attention Wed.
What's the deal with SONS....? I didn't see any new for it today.
High volume.... I wonder is 'somebody' knows something...
I was tempted to pick some up near the close, but passed on it....
I'll be watching it on Wed.
Out @42.70.
Don't want to be greedy....! :~)
Revised from my deleted message:
Looking for the QID to tag the daily 200 sma tomorrow (42.80).
Then a reversal. My main indicator is in the WAY OVERBOUGHT territory on a weekly basis.
On a daily basis, the indicator still has room to move and could take a few days to play out before reversing to the downside.
Or, the indicator could reverse intraday (after pegging an EXTREME number)and take down the QID with it.
Another possibility is, tomorrow will be a 'rally day'for the NASDAQ. We may gap up and not go lower for the day, then the QID will have to wait another day or two to go after that 200 sma.
Or, the NASDAQ gaps down, causing the QID to touch the 200 sma, then heads high, causing the QID to move lower.
Anyhow, that's what I'll be watching for Tuesday. :~)
delete
Another scenario I have is, the NASDAQ is in the process of forming a 5th wave down that would take out the March low (2155) and stop at 2135.
This is a good possiblity, since it would, probably, take all summer and into the fall to complete. That would give the commodities (especially oil) time to put in a correction. That would give the NASDAQ a reason for a nice rally.
Let's see if this plays out sometime by the end November.
Also, just a thought, this weakness could also be the markets pricing in an Obama win (God help us!).
A McCain victory would be a reason for a nice rally, too.
If commodity prices pull back, plus a McCain victory, might just provide a nice backdrop for a nice rally.
It will be interesting to see how all this plays out.
Anyhow, jump on a trend: "The trend is your friend". :~)
( Looks like for this election, we have a choice between a Democrat and a Marxist. Too bad the Republicans didn't run a canidate. lol!) ;~)
I have a feeling that if the NASDAQ opens down Monday, it will reverse and close positive.
But, I think the trend is down. At least for another 50 points or so.
Sticking a Post-It note on Rays door because I know he's not home:
Ray,
There's a gap at 2348 on the NASADQ. That's a 5% decline from Thursday's high of 2470. Looks like it wants to fill. ;~)
See ya later,
df
Also, today's action on the NASDAQ looks to me like short covering and games being play because of options expirations tomorrow.
I believe next week's action will give us a good indication of what to expect for the rest of the summmer.
To me, the SKF looks overbought. It looks to pullback to 118, possibly 112.
I'm currently not playing the SKF now, but I'm watching it closely.
I'm still in AAPL and the QID. Bad day for the QID. :~)
Good for Legatum. I hope they can get things changed at Sonus.
Great products, but the company's managed by morons. :>)
Ray, fwiw, I just noticed the 200 sma lays right at 42.83 for the QID.
So,.... maybe we go tag that....?
Ray: Re: QID
My indicators are telling me the the QID still has more upside to go before selling. Using EW, I think the QID may be able to reach 42.70 before a sell signal kicks in.
I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but by trading using my indicator, I have to stay long. The daily and weekly is telling me to stay long.
I'll be watching the QID closely on Thursday and will probably have a comment or two I'll post intraday.
Use your best trading judgement, though, as I only post my thoughts as a way for others to have another opinion to consider.
I guess the reason I post these thoughts is to guage my own thinking. If I'm way off base, someone will notice and bring it to my attention. Then, I'll go back and re-analyize my findings to see if I was in error.
All jmho,
df
Who knows....? Maybe because it's options expiration week...?
Afterhours doesn't mean too much.... I didn't see any news.
I had not seen that. Thanks.
O.K., nighty night! :~)
O.k., that makes sence.
And your english is fine. I would have thought you were an American living abroad. :~)
According to this:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5555/is_200303/ai_n21924201
Eric Le Coz no longer works for Carmignac.
It could have been one of our posters talking.
What does that mean....?
And what does "Financials r duped" supposed to mean...?