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Penny,
I think you missed your window. Maybe a market correction will help you out. GL!
Quote: "because should they default it will start a domino effect across Europe"
Be careful on what media sources you choose to believe and monitor. IMO, Greece is no longer a question mark; they will default and it is already priced in to the market. The real question is the stability of Spain and Italy. Don't let the media slants on Greece, Ireland and Portugal take your eye off the ball. Spain and Italy are the economies to watch.
Today's market weakness isn't about Greece; It’s about the Spanish Banks and Germany's patience running thin. If Germany bails on Greece, it will signal a period of protectionism. Germany may just put the walls up, wait for the chips to fall, and then pick up the pieces across Europe. Could 3rd time be a charm
Quote: "Assuming economic conditions continue to improve slowly it will take a few years but Bank of America should ultimately be able to produce enough income to deliver 64 cents per quarter. If you buy the stock now at around $8 per share you may realize a 31% yield on your investment per year beginning in perhaps 2015"
Well said,
IMO, a buck or two a year dividend in a few years is highly probable. I'm personnaly looking for the BAC dividend payouts to be my travel/play money in the golden years.
Greece default already priced in long ago. IMO, what you have to watch going forward is Spain, Italy and Portugal. A Greece default could present a trade, but nothing meaningful. There is a much bigger game playing out. Germany is the only rock solid economy in Europe, with a few other weaker players struggling similar to the US. The question is whether or not Germany can carry the dead weight. It will be a challenging test. That you can bank on, but it won't influence BoA in the long run.
Quote: "CHK has too much debt to be a viable hostile takeover target"
Don't agree with too much debt. Not arguing that there will be a takeover, but if there were, CHK's debt is very manageable for the likely suitors who would benefit the most from acquiring CHK.
Quote: "My new target price $ 6.25"
My target is a buck higher. Fill the gaps and start back up. GLTY.
z,
Your theory is pretty much in line with the theory I came to several weeks ago. No proof and pure speculation on my part, but I have had direct experience with very similar "strange" events in two other penny stocks over the years. This whole thing with VTSI is feeling remarkably déjà vu for me.
I appreciate all your recent posts and the sharing of your thoughts and opinions.
PS: The recent "Aim High" pump, is one of the better ones that I have seen, but I don't understand the connection they are trying to draw with S&W Holdings.
Looks to me like somone is trying to build an inventory. Two trades of 929 shares a little over 4 hours apart. IMO, the 2nd trade hoped to generate some selling. Didn't happen.
Conix,
Quote: "McClendon needs to resign as Chairman too."
I think that will happen quickly. In the meantime, $15 Jan 14 Call Leaps are on sale again. I'm back in and looking for another pop and out. The volatility is providing some good short term opportunities. I need more clarity on the way ahead before I start adding more core shares.
Whitenoc,
It doesn't sound like you have any patience. When BoA finally opens the treasure chest for buy-backs and a meaningful dividend, you will be chasing the stock as it bolts in to the double digits. I for one appreciate their re-org efforts and delay on dividend. Their efforts today will yield great rewards down range.
Disclosure: I'm a buyer between 7.25 and 8.50 with a 2+ year horizon.
Conix,
IMO, this Alpha article (5 Reasons Why Chesapeake Shares Should Be Sold) is just another classic example of the “bad press” and “bad DD” that floods the air waves in hopes of triggering emotional transactions, and prey on the uninformed.
Points number 2 and 5 are risk factors for the entire NG industry and apply to Encana as much as they do to Chesapeake. The other three points (1, 3 and 4) all apply to the current chaos centered around the CEO and his borrowing practices/compensations, etc; which is the Wall Street scandal of the day and is receiving more PR than I think it merits.
I like to stay focused on facts and seek opportunities during media driven chaos. Without going into expansive DD, a few points to consider that directly relate to the subject article:
- CHK Book value is 21.20 and the Friday closing price of 17.71 is a 16.5% discount to book
- ECA book value 22.17 and its 20.55 closing price on Friday is a 7% discount to book
- ECA Debt/Equity is 52% versus CHK at 57% (as of 31 Dec 2011) and both are heavily leveraged
- The diluted EPS for CHK in 2011 was 2.32 and ECA was .17
Granted there is a lot more DD to consider, but with just these simple facts, most knowledgeable investors would make a value play on CHK well ahead of ECA. Longer term ECA and CHK share the same risk/rewards and I could argue that CHK has better risk mitigation options than ECA. I won’t go in to that here, my only point being, you have to view media hype/bashing with caution. Rarely does it paint an unbiased and complete picture of the facts.
IMO, what ECA has going for it (reason for the hype) is based on the technicals and not the fundamentals. ECA is currently trading above its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) and knocking on the door of its 200 DMA. IMO, CHK will bounce to its 50 DMA near-term (days to weeks) and even if it fails to cross-over at that level, it is still a 30% pop from the mid 17s.
Another point to ponder, CHK has traded half its float in the last 8 sessions and IMO is a prime candidate for a buyout by the likes of Chevron, ConocoPhillips or some other suitor at a steep discount to recent merger/acquisition transactions in the NG industry.
Disclosure: I’m long on CHK and started building a long-term position with a dollar cost average around 21 (obviously got in a little early). I’ve put on a couple of LEAP call option trades in the low 17s in hopes of the traditional dead cat bounce, after which I will re-evaluate the fundamentals and my longer term strategy.
Predicting a pop in price ahead of earnings. I anticipate short covering Monday ahead of earnings. If CHK meets or beats earnings the price should move up nicely. Considering the recent self-off, a miss on earnings should have limited downside. A SP move into middle 18s or even 19 would put a strong floor in at low 17s. GLTA longs.
Al,
Trust me; I would love to “color it as though there are blue skies ahead for VTSI”. I know that is not the case near term. I still believe in the company longer term and you may be absolutely right regarding the need for new leadership at the helm. I’m monitoring that closely.
In the near term, I hope to get a few successful trades in while holding a core long term position. With respect to all the recent new aliases going silent, that is not coincidence.
Quote: "Residents evacuate after gas leaks from oil well"
You have to keep things in perspective. This is insignificant in view of the bigger picture. Even if this leak goes ugly (unlikely), it only costs Ches a couple million dollars. Considering the recent loss of $4B in market cap, the leak isn't even a blip on the screen.
SirFelix,
Great Post. You said, "My opinion: The company's lawyers and management wanted to produce a comprehensive umbrella policy that would protect the company from employee indiscretions.
I find it interesting that the 4 who did not want to sign it are the same "dream team" that were hired based on their history of bringing in lots of sales/contracts. Coincidence?"
I agree with your thought pattern, and for me, “no coincidence" at all. I suspect Virtra did not know about John's shell of a company (Hatalom). And if we could get to the real truth, his last employer (Intelligent Decisions) probably didn't know about Hatalom either.
Hinnant has a pattern developing, and in my assessment, it isn't a good one. I suspect Virtra took the right action with their recent terminations.
From a speculative position, any suitor of Virtra will want their own DoD representatives and IMO Hinnant and his teams days were numbered, regardless.
Additionally, the "Foreign Corrupt Practices Act", that has been plaguing Wal-Mart, has cost them $16B (yes that is a “B”) in the last two days.
IMO, it doesn't look like the turmoil generated enough of a sell-off to satisfy the source of the bashing and Virtra Insider. Will we see another delay in the shareholder meeting and the revised record date for the determination of shareholders entitled to vote??
Quote: "well if you're so sure why don't you buy a bunch"
I did, and it honestly was one of the more difficult purchases I've made, despite not being a tone of money. My gut says .04 (3 year support level) is possible, but I couldn't resist buying in the .05s.
Come the first week of June, I suspect I will be a happy camper or very frustrated. GLTA Longs!
PS: I'm pretty much ignoring what comes out of the so called Virtra employees (recent IH aliases).
Thanks Conix,
GLTY. Port
Quote: "Shorts having a field day here"
That they are. It looks like market will be weak today. IMO, if we dip below 13,000 again, we will have to test 12,600 or lower. That should get BAC well below 8. I was looking for a buy at low 8s, and then a longer shot opportunity to get some around 7.50. Now I'm thinking 7.50 is very likely, especially with a couple open gaps between 7 and 7.5. GLTY.
Teeroy,
I assumme you assisted in restoring my posts.
Thank you
WhiteNOC,
I wish you luck, but don't agree with your comment: "To me it needs to fill those gaps back down at 4 or go BK".
We have already learned the lesson that BAC is too big to fail. I'm not saying a retest of support around $5 is out of the question, but it will take a seriously depressed market to get BAC down to that level at this point. IMO, BK is completely out of the question. I thought it was a remote possibility last October, but figured out by the end of December, that wasn't going to happen.
One mans opinion: I bought at 22 and again at 20 previously. On the day of the crash last Wednesday, I bought $17 calls for Jan14. Hoping the calls will offset my losses near-term tied to purchases at 22 and 20.
I started building a longterm position a couple of weeks ago just ahead of the bottom falling out. Still believe in the stock and industry longer term, but will be happy to see this CEO loan issue behind the stock. The volume on the sell-off day last week makes me believe the bottom is in around the low 17s. GLTY.
Quote: "Looks like it really is time to get out"
You may be a little late with that realization don't you think? If you like the story, I recommend you ride it out. Likely see bottom in at the low 8s and if that fails, there is a mountain of support between 7.43 and 7.72. Either way you count on a whipsaw. If market dives, then IMO a sell at 8.36+ would be good move with re-entry around 7.50. For some, its probably just better to put in the limit orders and ignore; unless you like the volatility. GLTY.
gbb...,
I'm with you on your take. More likely that Hatalom and Virtra are working together, than John H. walking out or fired.
I saw that Hatalom had a couple of government contracts for a little over a $100K each in 2010 or 2011. It also appears they are trying to bring up a web site at hatalom.com. The domain name is registered, but just a shell.
Jimbo,
We know what you are trying to do here. Give it a break. Your dealing with a crowd that has been around the block a few more times than you obviously have.
PS: Your timing is bad. You should have started 1-2 months earlier.
PS: The current address listing for Hatalom LLC is 1802 North Alafaya Trail, Orlando, FL which is a virtual office space where you get access to 100-200 SF of real office 8-16 hours per month.
This whole Hatalom LLC and the Hinnant's sounds like a joke to me. It may be a good thing if Virtra booted Hinnant out the door.
"John walked out today? And then the pr of his hiring came out the same day?"
I wouldn't say John Hinnant walked in to a job. The self-proclaimed CEO, Teresa Duwel, is John's wife. Duwel is her maiden name.
Hatalom LLC. was registered in 2008 with both John and Teresa Hinnant as members of Hatalom. The Hatalom business address in 2008 was the Hinnant residence at 4397 Raywood Ash Ct., Oviedo, FL. So don't get too excited about John walking in to anything other than his kitchen table business, if you can even call it a business.
Additionally, we don't even know if John walked out, got fired or is still working at Virtra.
Unrelated to above comments; I also find it interesting that the closeout date for voting shares went from 20 to 24 April with the change in date for the shareholder meeting. That provides two additional days of trading for what somebody thinks is a good reason. Accumulation for voters advantage?
My advice, don't react to this current turmoil at all. Someone or something is trying to generate emotional reactions. Don't let it happen. I for one, will not sell a share between now and COB the 24th unless the price goes through the roof. It we see a major dip in the price, I will probably be a buyer.
Disclosure: My comments regarding the Hinnant's, Duwel and Hatalom is publically available info with a little homework. I'm long Virtra and holding a little over 600K shares.
I'm looking to extend (building LT position) at $8 and possibly $7.50 if support at $8 fails. Started my core position at $8.55 earlier in the week. I'm not confident enough in the price dropping from current levels to short it. Big money owns the direction of BAC right now and I am finding it difficult to predict the big money strategy. I'm comfortable with the LT direction of BAC and future fundamentals, but NT going to follow the technicals for entry/exit guidance. IMO, next buy opportunity is in the low 8s with strong support between 7.72 and 7.43. Find the bottom of the current down cycle and $7 call options for Jan14 may be the best play. GLTA.
"Bottom fell out!! LOD $8.82 What Happened???"
Big money needs some time to unroll the short positions. That is happening, and quicker than I would have expected. Just look at the Call Option activity today and the last few days. It is a pretty safe bet this stock is going to 10, then 12 and then 15. GLTA langs.
Not my profit taking. I'm the guy buying between .016 and .018
"Because some large shareholders who got in below a penny are up over 100% and are slowly selling their shares"
Bingo! Just profit taking.
Amazing volume today. A 16 handle is probably not out of the question.
I intend to start buying in the money LEAPS today. Should see blood in the streets. May even dip below $18. GLTA.
I intend to start buying in the money LEAPS today. Should see blood in the streets. May even dip below $18. GLTA.
"but specifics WRT revenue" was suppose to be "but no specifics WRT revenue."
Apologize for the typo.
Bill,
Take a look at a 3 month Accumulation/Distribution curve on a daily chart. You will see that solid and steady accumulation began in mid to late December 11.
Looks like we may be getting a reprieve from the dark period... Virtra announced some sales this morning, but specifics WRT revenue.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/firearms-training-simulation-manufacturer-virtra-110500225.html
Regards, Ray
Bill,
I don't know if BF is accumulating or not. I know someone has been accumulating the last 3-4 months. Pure speculation on my part, but I believe the real accumulation has likely been Miller Group, versus insiders.
Ray
"I know legally he doesn't have to announce any share purchase, but there aren't any negatives to such an announcement and would probably boost PPS. No one knows more about the future of Virtra tnan Ferris and he, if confident in future success, would never get shares this cheap again."
Bill,
You said it, but I don't think you realize it... Pretty difficult to buy shares cheap if you are pumping the stock. Just go dark, best way to accumulate shares cheap. If Virtra was in crisis, they would be pumping the he!! out of the stock and selling it to unbeknownst sheep.
"possibly a silent majority"
I'm with you entrails. We just have a handfull of bears that make a lot of noise
Shares at .019 almost gone. Starting to look like we close at .023+