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Gold perks back up with all eyes overseas
Hedge funds cut bullish bets for the first time in six weeks
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Now that heightened geopolitical risks have injected some volatility in markets, gold drew plenty of attention on Monday and saw prices move higher.
Gold for August delivery (CNS:GCQ4) rose $4.50, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,313.90 an ounce. September silver (CNS:SIU4) tacked on 12 cents, or nearly 0.6%, to end at $21.01 an ounce.
Looking ahead, Walter de Wet of Standard Bank says that price sensitivity in Asia could provide a headwind that keeps gold from logging any meaningful advances.
“The renewed political tension may introduce a marginal risk premium into the gold price in coming days,” he said. “However, unless the situation deteriorates substantially, we doubt that additional demand introduced via political risk can offset the decline we expect from Asia if the gold price rallies too high.” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-perks-back-up-with-all-eyes-overseas-2014-07-21
Been accumulating $XUII .0007
Been accumulating $XUII .0007
Stocks drop on global worries; Dow down 100 points
U.S. stocks declined on Monday as global disapproval of Russian President Vladimir Putin increased after the downing of a passenger plane in Ukraine and amid international calls for a truce in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101852308
Gold holds above $1,300 as geopolitical risks eyed
Gold steadied above the $1,300 an ounce support level on Monday, aided by anticipation of increased geopolitical risks as the United States began demanding answers from Russia after a Malaysian plane was downed in eastern Ukraine. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101851418
U.S. stocks: Futures off on Gaza, Russia headlines
Apple, Boeing earnings among the week’s heavy hitters
MADRID (MarketWatch) — Stock futures edged lower on Monday, as investors took in news of a deadly weekend in the Israel-Palestinian conflict and potentially tougher sanctions from Europe against Russia over the downing of a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (CBE:DJU4) fell 29 points to 17,003, while those for the S&P 500 index (GLC:SPU4) fell 3.6 points to 1,968. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index (GLC:NDU4) dipped 2.25 points to 3,928.
“We are seeing a push toward more defensive sectors [in Europe] and expect that to follow suit when U.S. markets open,” said Brenda Kelly, chief market strategist at IG .
There are no economic events for Monday and a scant amount of earnings, leaving investors to face down a weekend of rising global tensions. On Sunday, Secretary of State John Kerry was caught on an open microphone, ahead of interviews with Sunday talk shows, criticizing Israeli’s Gaza operation after the deadliest day of fighting for both sides since the conflict began. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-dip-on-israel-russia-headlines-2014-07-21?dist=beforebell
Small caps’ slump, Ukraine fears may hold up market
Apple, Boeing report in big week for earnings
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — In the week ahead, investors will watch to see if there’s more pain for small-cap stocks, often viewed as a gauge of the stock market’s appetite for risk.
They’ll also see if Ukraine fears or other geopolitical worries outweigh what could be another round of upbeat earnings reports and encouraging economic news. That’s after U.S. stocks largely ended higher last week even after a missile downed a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet in battle-torn eastern Ukraine.
The Russell 2000 RUT +1.59% , a key benchmark for smaller-capitalization stocks, lost 0.7% for the week, while the big-cap S&P 500 SPX +1.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.73% gained 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. The Russell is down for two weeks in a row and off 1% for the year, but the S&P is up 7% in 2014, the Dow has risen 3.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.57% has tacked on 6.1% after last week’s 1.6% gain.
Small caps are “threatening to become an anchor to further gains” by the overall market, said S&P Capital IQ strategist Sam Stovall in a note last week. Meanwhile, Colin Cieszynski of CMC Markets described the Russell 2000’s underperformance as “the troops aren’t following the generals,” meaning the market is showing a lack of breadth that might end with a broader slump.
During the past week, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM +1.56% tested a closely watch chart level, its 200-day moving average, as shown in the adjacent chart. This popular vehicle for betting on small caps last spent time below that level in May, then recovered and scored an all-time closing high on July 1 before pulling back again. Read more: Small caps usually suffer intra-year drops of 10% or more
Central bankers deserve some blame for the small fry’s slide. A Federal Reserve report on Tuesday sparked sharp selling in this area of the market, as it said valuations “appear substantially stretched” for “smaller firms in the social-media and biotechnology industries.”
While some market watchers criticized the Fed for opining on particular parts of the stock market, David Lebovitz of J.P. Morgan Funds said the central bank is trying to communicate that it’s focused on both the economy and the market. Fed officials are saying “it all factors into our broad assessment of the current state of play in the U.S.,” said Lebovitz, a global markets strategist. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-caps-slump-ukraine-fears-may-hold-up-market-2014-07-20?dist=tbeforebell
U.S. economy not getting a lot of help from its friends
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy is not getting much help from its friends.
Even discounting the grim headlines from Ukraine and the Middle East, the global economic outlook is starting to look green around the gills.
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund will release the results of its latest exam of the health of the global economy and the results are not expected to be favorable.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde has already hinted that the outlook will be revised downward.
In April, the IMF was fairly upbeat on the outlook, projecting global growth would rise to 3.6% in 2014 from 3% in 2013.
Three months later, the outlook for Japan and euro-zone economies looks weaker, said Carl Weinberg, chief global economist at High Frequency Economics.
While not “catastrophic” to the U.S., weakness in these two key economies is “unwelcome,” Weinberg said.
In contrast, the U.S. economy has been looking healthier in recent weeks. On center stage this week is the latest reading of consumer price inflation.
Economists expect another firm consumer price index report on Tuesday. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is expected to be up over 2% Energy prices are expected to post the highest monthly increase since February 2013, according to Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities.
The CPI typically runs hotter than the Fed’s favorite inflation index, the personal consumption expenditure index, which was up 1.8% over the past year. The Fed targets 2% inflation over the medium term.
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has downplayed the recent inflation readings, saying that they were “noisy.” And Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said he expects inflation will stay below 2%.
There will also be two fresh readings of the health of the housing market. Yellen told Congress last week that the sector has been surprisingly disappointing.
“Tougher mortgage rules and higher prices have countered the lift from recently lower mortgage rates and better job growth,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
On Tuesday, existing home sales are expected to show some positive momentum. Sales are expected to rise 2.3% in June to 5 million units. This would be the third straight monthly gain but it follows a period where the headline number declined 7 out of 8 months.
Guatieri said that repeat buyers are having to “carry the ball” in the existing home segment as rapidly rising prices have undercut demand from investors and first-time buyers.
New home sales are expected to retreat in June after a strong 18.6% gain in May.
On Friday, durable goods orders are expected to be flat in June after a 0.9% decline in the prior month due to pullbacks in volatile defense goods and civilian aircraft categories, said Ted Wieseman, economist at Morgan Stanley.
Adolfo Laurenti, economist for Mesirow Financial, said the housing and durable goods reports will be good “harbingers” for second half growth.
At the moment, Laurenti still expects the economy to grow 3.5% rate in the second half.
But if housing and capital spending disappoint, “we may have to go back to the blackboard and become more conservative,” he said. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-not-getting-a-lot-of-help-from-its-friends-2014-07-20
Here’s your second-half playbook for stocks
Analysis: The year got off to a slow start, but that’s not a reason to be concerned
For years, we’ve expected interest rates to rise. That day is now in view: Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve said it expects to wind down its quantitative-easing program and cease buying Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as soon as October. In the past, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has testified that she would consider raising rates as soon as six months after the end of quantitative easing.
So how should investors be thinking about the second half of 2014? Is this a trial balloon for the markets? And how much of an effect is the end of easing likely to have on individuals’ portfolios?
This year has already had some unique characteristics. Investor expectations for the first half of 2014 focused on stronger economic growth, which led to earnings growth (good) — but that can also lead to inflation and higher interest rates (not so good). The textbook reaction from equity investors in this kind of environment is to pile into economy-sensitive growth stocks, which would respond favorably to a marketplace that’s heating up.
But, during the first half of the year, the expected growth and follow-on rise in interest rates did not materialize. In fact, the opposite happened: The economy did not grow, thanks, in part, to the bitter winter, and interest rates tumbled. First-quarter real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) registered an annualized drop of 2.9%, the biggest quarterly contraction in five years. At the same time, long-term interest rates plunged, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping about 50 basis points (one-half of a percentage point) to a little over 2.5%. As for the stock markets, the S&P 500 Index registered a respectable total return of 7.1% for the first half.
The biggest risk to a bull market has always been overheating, as most end when investors become euphoric and push prices to unsustainable levels. Now, as the stock markets continue their rise — after a 30%-plus gain in 2013 — prices are no long cheap and are at least fairly valued. The significance of the stock market behavior during the first half of this year is that it is a very healthy, much-needed cool down of investor excitement, preventing stock prices from jumping out of control. Here’s why 2014 is unusual, and why the data suggest that the bull market is not over yet. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-second-half-playbook-for-stocks-2014-07-19
Competition, stock surge fuel boom In mergers
A $54 billion pharmaceutical tie-up announced Friday is the latest in a string of big mergers that has pushed deal activity past the $2 trillion mark this year, growing at a pace not seen since 2007.
Global takeover activity has climbed 53% since the beginning of the year, compared with the same period last year, according to data provider Dealogic. Among the latest tie-ups, U.S. drug maker AbbVie Inc. said Friday that it agreed to pay about $54 billion to buy Ireland’s Shire PLC. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/competition-stock-surge-fuel-boom-in-mergers-2014-07-19
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U.S. stocks rally, post weekly gains
Google rallies, AMD tumbles after quarterly reports
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market finished the volatile week with modest gains, helped by a bounce on the main benchmarks Friday.
Broad-based gains on the S&P 500 were led by technology and healthcare sector stocks, particularly biotechnology companies.
Investors focused on earnings reports from companies such as Google, Inc and Huntington Bancshares and brushed aside implications of a Malaysia Airlines jet crash in Ukraine and Israel’s invasion of Gaza, which triggered a selloff on Thursday.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) rose 20.1 points, or 1%, to 1,978.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) added 123.37 points, or 0.7%, to 17,100.18.
The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) jumped 68.70 points, or 1.6%, to 4,432.15, as biotech and Internet stocks rallied sharply, after steep drops the day before. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF rose 3%, while the Global X Social Media Index ETF rose 1.8%.
Equities on Thursday were rattled by news that 298 passengers were killed in a Malaysia Airlines (KUL:MY:MAS) crash in eastern Ukraine, where fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops has been going on for months.
U.S. intelligence officials said the jet was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. Follow developments on Flight MH17 here. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-mixed-as-malaysia-jet-crash-stirs-tensions-2014-07-18
Gold fails to hold onto safe-haven gains
Analysts: ETFs showing restraint when it come to gold
MADRID (MarketWatch) — The safe-haven benefits for gold faded on Friday, with the precious metal dropping in electronic trading, as a lack of physical follow-through made that upward move unsustainable, said analysts. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-fails-to-hold-onto-safe-haven-gains-2014-07-18?link=MW_latest_news
Consumer sentiment getting near levels before recession
A gauge of consumer sentiment likely slightly rose this month, buoyed by a strengthening labor market, according to forecasts for data to be released Friday morning.
Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the preliminary July reading for the consumer-sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters to rise to 83 from a final June level of 82.5. For context, the index averaged 86.9 over the year leading up the recession.
Despite July’s expected rise, the gauge is likely to remain below pre-recession levels, with consumers weighed down by rising food and gas prices, economists said.
The sentiment data will be released at 9:55 a.m. Eastern.
At 10 a.m. Eastern, the Conference Board will report on its leading-economic index for June, and economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the gauge to post another gain, signaling that the economy will continue to expand. For May the LEI rose 0.5%, pointing to a pick up in growth. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/07/17/consumer-sentiment-getting-near-levels-before-recession/
U.S. stocks: Futures mixed as Malaysia jet crash stirs tensions
Dow component General Electric to release results
LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures were mixed but close to the flatline Friday, in muted moves compared with the previous session’s sell-off in reaction to a deadly Malaysia Airlines jet crash in Ukraine.
The end of the week will bring gauges of consumer sentiment and economic activity, as well as quarterly results from General Electric Co., a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (CBE:DJU4) fell 16 points, or 0.1%, to 16,925, while those for the S&P 500 index (GLC:SPU4) rose 1 point to 1,954. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index (GLC:NDU4) rose 5 points to 3,881.
Equities on Thursday were rattled by news that 298 passengers were killed in an Malaysia Airlines (KUL:MY:MAS) crash in eastern Ukraine, where fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops has been going on for months. The UN Security Council was set to hold an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the Ukrainian-Russian crisis in the wake of the plane crash.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) on Thursday saw its biggest one-day fall since April 10, dropping 23 points, or 1.2%, and the Dow industrials (DJI:DJIA) slide 161 points, or 0.9%, the biggest drop since May 15. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-mixed-as-malaysia-jet-crash-stirs-tensions-2014-07-18?dist=beforebell
After-hours buzz: Google, IBM, Seagate & more
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101846499
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U.S. stocks sell off after Malaysia Airlines crash in Ukraine
S&P 500 drop is the biggest since April 10
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended sharply lower Thursday as selling took hold after a Malaysia Airlines jet crashed near the Ukraine-Russia border.
Investors turned to assets perceived as havens, such as U.S. Treasurys and gold, pushing their prices sharply higher.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) closed down 23.45 points, or 1.2%, to 1,958.12, its biggest one-day drop since April 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) dropped 161.39 points, or 0.9%, to 16,976.81, its biggest one-day point decline since May 15.
The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) ended the day down 62.52 points, or 1.4%, at 4,363.45.
Geopolitical risks intensified after news that a Ukrainian fighter jet was shot down by missiles from a Russian plane. Then came reports that a Malaysia Airlines plane had crashed in Ukraine. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-dip-with-morgan-stanley-ukraine-in-mind-2014-07-17
unless they PR no R/S I will personally not be touching this ever again
Management needs to do much more than a website revamp to get investors interested again. PPS is right back where it start first of the year SAD!
Gold rallies 1.3% on Malaysia Airline crash
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose as safe-haven demand revived on reports that a Malaysian Airline passenger jet was shot down over Ukraine Thursday. August gold (CNS:GCQ4) gained $17.10, or 1.3%, for the session to settle at $1,316.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. markets react sharply to report of Malaysian plane crash in Ukraine
SAN FRANCISCO -- (MarketWatch) U.S. financial and commodities markets reacted sharply to reports a Malaysian Airlines jet flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lampur crashed in strife-torn Ukraine Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) fell 58 points to 17,080, while the S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) lost nearly 11 points to 1,971. Gold futures (CNS:GCQ4) rose $16.80 to $1,316.60 an ounce. Interest rates fell as investors shifted into treasurys, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year note falling below 2.5%.
Early movers: UNH, MSFT, BX, MS, EBAY, YUM & more
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101844354
We’re in the third biggest stock bubble in U.S. history
Here’s a quick question for you. What do the following years have in common:
1853, 1906, 1929, 1969, 1999
Pass the question around your office. Call your money manager and ask him or her, too. Post it on your office notice board.
Give up?
Those were the peaks of the five massive, generational stock-market bubbles in U.S. history.
Investors who bought into stocks around those peaks ended up earning terrible returns over the subsequent 30 years. Forget “stocks for the long run.” They ended up with “stocks for a long face.” The bigger the bubble, the worse returns.
And, according to a new research report, we are back there again.
U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued on certain key long-term measures, according to research by financial consultant Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers & Co. and one of the few to warn about the bubble of the late 1990s at the time.
The five dates listed at the start of this article, he says, are the only times since 1802, when data began being tracked, when stocks have been 50% or more overvalued according to these measures. And only two of those bubbles — 1929 and 1999, both of which were followed by disastrous crashes — were bigger than today.
That’s right: According to Smithers’s data, we are now in the third biggest bubble in U.S. history. (Oh, to jump ahead slightly, he also suspects it will go up even further before it comes back down.)
Smithers bases his analysis on a combination of measures: Subsequent 30-year returns, and a comparison of U.S. stock prices (since 1900) in relation to a key measure called “Tobin’s q,” which looks at how much it would cost to replace corporations’ assets from scratch. The two measures march closely together: For over 100 years, nothing has predicted investors’ future 30-year returns better than to compare the stock market to the q.
Smithers used data from Jeremy “Stocks for the Long Run” Siegel, from London Business School professor Elroy Dimson and his colleagues, and from London University finance professor Stephen Wright
Caveats to this alarming analysis? My MarketWatch colleague Howard Gold recently warned that fear can be dangerously seductive and influential when it comes to financial news, and he’s right. One should always take a deep breath and a pause for thought when reading anything deeply bearish (or bullish). Smithers has been bearish for some time, although he has not attempted to predict short-term moves in the market.
Today Smithers argues that stock prices are first likely to go even higher, because they are being driven upwards by two forces. The first is the Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing” program - the policy of flinging money at the banks in the hope some of it doesn’t stick, but finds its way into the wider economy. The second is corporate buying. Under-appreciated at the moment is that the top buyers of U.S. stocks these days are the companies themselves. U.S. companies have been borrowing aggressively and using the money to buy their own stock.
Probably the most important single implication of this analysis is not what is going to happen today or next week or even next year. It is to remind investors that stocks in aggregate have not always generated high returns. On the contrary, the stock market has throughout modern history gone in long waves, with booms of several decades, followed by mediocre or even disastrous returns for many years. Since hardly anybody studies history any more - and people on Wall Street think they can extrapolate the future from 20 years’ data - this one insight is likely to be heavily under-appreciated.
If Smithers is right, what are the possible icebergs that could come along sooner or later and sink today’s market? He suggests several.
First, the Fed could be the cause as it winds down quantitative easing, a policy on track to end this year. As research by Smithers and others show, the stock market boom since 2009 has almost exactly tracked the rapid increase in the money supply.
Second, companies could stop borrowing and buying shares of their own stock. All the talk of fat corporate balance sheets hides the problem that U.S. companies have actually been increasing their leverage. To keep buying in stocks they would have to continue to do so - ad infinitum, perhaps.
The third could be a return to 1970s-style stagflation. Smithers notes that — contrary to what you may hear from the bulls — U.S. productivity growth has been slowing for years, and indeed has been tumbling recently. Such slowing growth, Smithers notes, could set the stage for a rise in inflation and interest rates, or a sluggish economy. Either, in turn, could weaken stock prices and investor optimism.
My take? The older I get the more I sympathize with Socrates, who supposedly said that the only thing he knew was how little he knew (or something similar). However, I give Smithers’s analysis a lot of weight. It is, after all, based on hard numbers, unsentimental analysis, and a deep study of history.
All three are in short supply elsewhere on Wall Street. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-in-the-third-biggest-stock-bubble-in-us-history-2014-07-15
U.S. stocks: Futures dip with Morgan Stanley, Russia in mind
LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures looked to a slightly lower open for the market Thursday, ahead of quarterly results from Morgan Stanley, a speech on monetary policy by a Federal Reserve official, and a weekly labor-market update.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJU4 -0.22% fell 20 points to 17,037, while those for the S&P 500 index SPU4 -0.38% shed 6 points, or 0.3%, to 1,969. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NDU4 -0.27% gave up 8 points, or 0.2%, to 3,915.
While the ongoing corporate earnings season will be a main focus for investors Thursday, attention is turning again to Ukraine tensions after the U.S. and the EU each revealed fresh sanctions against Russia. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-dip-with-morgan-stanley-ukraine-in-mind-2014-07-17
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U.S. stocks gain; Dow sets 15th record of the year
Biotech, small-cap stocks under selling pressure
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record level on Wednesday for the 15th time this year, as better-than-expected corporate earnings and deal talk lifted broader markets.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which said that economic conditions and labor markets showed improvement across the country into early July, gave stocks a late lift.
The S&P 500 (SNC:SPX) closed 8.25 points, or 0.4%, higher at the preliminary 1,981.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) added 77.33 points, or 0.5%, to 17,138.01.
The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ:COMP) gained 9.58 points, or 0.2%, to 4,425.97.
But while S&P component Time Warner Inc. surged on news that it had rejected a bid from 21st Century Fox Inc., biotech and Internet stocks sold off for the second day, after a report from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised concerns about their valuations. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) fell 1.6%, while the Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL)
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen concluded her two-day appearance testifying on Capitol Hill. In her comments, she stressed a softer line on stock valuations, saying the Fed doesn’t have a target for equity values. The central bank instead looks to see if valuations are outside historical norms.
“In that sense, I am not seeing alarming warning signals,” she said Wednesday. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-build-on-gains-with-bank-of-america-ahead-2014-07-16?link=MW_home_latest_news
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