active
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Awk, I agree. Anything regarding the future of unadopted technologies has risks. However, this is as obvious to me as anything that has not happened can be, lol. I think we will really sink our teeth into the second bite of the TPM pie.
John
FDE Drives,
Can anyone venture a guess on why these drives will not be incredibly successful? I do not know of any larger companies that do not already have or are not pursuing some sort of FDE solution. From what I understand, FDE drives make FDE more secure, do not take away processing power (like software FDE), are not any more expensive than software FDE and are easier to manage. This sounds like a home run with the bases loaded; also known as a grand slam, lol.
John
A couple of whitepapers that may have already been seen:
November 2006
http://www.wave.com/about/whitepapers/EnhancingITSecurity.pdf
December 2006 requires free registration at knowledgestorm
http://www.knowledgestorm.com/shared/write/collateral/WTP/51853_00627_13776_BiometricsWP5.pdf?ksi=13....
John
I just finished listening to the conference call. My impressions:
** I think Alea intimated my thoughts regarding revenue -- a quarter behind on OEM, a quarter ahead on enterprise per my expectations
** Business is engaging and sales will beget sales
** This truly is the beginning. TPMs will be on every pc in a couple of years. They will be shipped on every pc for a reason.
** Wave has positioned itself well to capitalize on this new standard.
** Microsoft Vista unlocks more doors
** I want an FDE drive
** I look forward to continued progress including additional OEM partnerships, expansion of existing OEM relationships and enterprises upgrades. This is a real business that is in its infancy.
John
Zen,
it looks like we are getting the pessimistic case, lol.
John
Zen,
based on the wording, I would expect it meant an amount they would be able to achieve.
John
Zen, here is the statement I found regarding breakeven. This is from unclever's Q1 2006 transcript:
"SKS: I think the way I’ve been answering this question is that if you had reasonable adoption to good adoption in upgrade business, you have the potential to get to that point by Q4 of this year. In reality it’s more likely that it’s Q2 next year when you see the up tick in OEM volume from to new design wins, both next year and the increased volume from this year. So in other words on the OEM licensing royalties alone with sort of minimal upgrade business, we should be able to get to cash flow break even by second quarter of next year. If you had reasonably good engagement of the upgrade business, you could go sell 100 or 200,000 seats which would help you get to cash flow breakeven in the fourth quarter time frame. I think that’s sort of a way hopefully to help you answer your question of “then therefore how much cash do you need?” You obviously don’t go zero zero zero and off, it has to follow a little bit of a ramp and you can kind of make some basic assumptions of starting at April 1 how do you get to a ramp of a few million dollars in OEM upgrades"
John
bwb1,
yes and here is a picture of barge chasing the consumer space:
http://www.clipartguide.com/_small/0060-0504-0115-3343.jpg
John
Great article vacationhouse,
thanks for sharing. You can just feel the culmination of a great amount of work slowly coming to fruition.
John
What a nice month.
Nothing out of the ordinary here. This is the new Wave. My expectations are for a steady climb in share price with periodic surges. Quarterly revenue releases will slowly generate new investor interest rather than diminish old investor confidence. Hopefully the Q3 revenue number will give us a new anchor point. Anywhere betwen 1 to 2 million will work for me.
John
Vader, per my previous e-mail...I absolutely do not think so. However, Wave can enhance bitlocker...insurance on keys...
Bitlocker, which is part of Vista Premium, requires a TPM.
John
This might not be new, but I did not realize HP used Broadcom TPMs.
http://h18007.www1.hp.com/support/files/hpcpqdt/us/download/23827.html?jumpid=reg_R1002_USEN
Broadcom TPM 5755 Device Driver
version 1.01 A (25 Sep 06)
This package provides the HP ProtectTools installation for the drivers to support the Broadcom Trusted Platform Manager (TPM) 5755 Security Chip in the listed desktop models and operating systems.
software information
Prerequisites
TPM must be enabled before installing this SoftPaq.
NOTE: To view instructions to unhide and enable the TPM embedded security chip, see the BIOS F10 User Guide or the HP Security User Guide.
Notes
PURPOSE:
Routine
OPERATING SYSTEM(S):
Microsoft Windows 2000
Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition
Microsoft Windows XP Professional
Installation
INSTALLATION INSTRUCTIONS:
Download the SoftPaq .EXE file to a directory on your hard drive.
Execute the downloaded file and follow the on-screen instructions.
systems supported
family models
HP Compaq dc5750 Small Form Factor PC All Models
HP Compaq dc5750 Microtower PC All Models
HP Compaq dc5700 Small Form Factor PC All Models
HP Compaq dc5700 Microtower PC All Models
» Broadcom TPM Firmware Upgrade Tool - HP Business Support Center
Version 2.0.2160.24258_ A - This package contains the Broadcom Trusted Platform Module (TPM) Firmware Upgrade Tool for the listed desktop models and operating systems.
2006-09-25
» Broadcom TPM 5755 Device Driver - HP Business Support Center
Version 1.01 A - This package provides the HP ProtectTools installation for the drivers to support the Broadcom Trusted Platform Manager (TPM) 5755 Security Chip in the listed desktop models and operating systems.
2006-09-25
I am not sure if this was posted:
http://www.seagate.com/newsinfo/newsroom/success/D2g42.html
Escrow,
those 200,000 opportunities will turn to 20,000 million at some point. In reality, it has just begun. I personally think the initial up take will take some time, but at some point thinks will roll on their own. TPMs clearly have a worthwhile value proposition. They will be on nearly every biz pc next year and half of all pcs. Clearly Wave has a value proposition that has been recognized by the #1 pc maker and the #1 chip maker in the world. Sooner or later we will make some sales by accident, lol.
John
Escrow,
we have announced deals with four of the 5 TPM vendors and also with Dell, Gateway and Intel. From what I understand from Steven, we will break even in Q2 2007 on existing deals from a month ago. Intel and Dell have really turned up the volume on TPMs and Wave. There is obviously a real value proposition. It is only a matter of time before the real money of enterprise licensing deals commence. All of course IMHO. A rising share price sure would be nice, but even absent a rising share price, I am still more comfortable than I have ever been.
John
Snackman,
the same people who bought at 50, lol. The opportunity has never been better. It has never been closer. Oh well. All of course, imo.
John
On Vpro:
From SKS 2006 Q1 call (thanks unclever)
Intel just announced their logo program for business platforms, the vPro brand, which also includes and requires Trusted Platform Modules. I think vPro is a very interesting space to watch because what you’re seeing is really the beginnings of the next stage of Trusted Computing that will develop probably not this year as much as it will develop next year. Which is how does the root of Trust in my PC help to manage ultimately Virtualization. So this is a fairly complex topic. I won’t spend a huge amount of time on it today. It is all in the direction of how do you manage Trusted Execution on your machine. Which applications are allowed to run? Where are they allowed to run? What are they allowed to do? And you’re seeing the starting point of it.
This it the result of work that’s gone on for the last four or five years. And even in some cases result of work from relationships that Wave had prior to 2000 in trusted hardware and trusted execution. So we think it’s a very interesting space. I don’t think it’s going to drive short-term revenue. It’s an area we continue to invest in in assuring we’re in the right position and the right place to support. I think our presence in theTrusted Computing support tools will help us very well in helping to manage aspects of Virtualization or the trust models of Virtualization as that comes to market.
John
Dutch,
if they don't come true, I will be selling in 2008. Unless, of course, 2009 looks good, lol.
John
xxxxcslewis,
you got it -- go get a TPM. I included you in my upgrade numbers, lol.
John
My revenue projections:
The following is based on current products and known partners. No trusted hard drives. No TNC. This is also a projection based on SKS's conservative assumption of break even in Q2 2007.
2006 Q3: 1-2 million in bundling revenue
2006 Q4: 2-3 million in bundling revenue (minor upgrades)
2007 Q1: 3-5 million in bundling and upgrade revenue
2007 Q2: 5-10 million in bundling and upgrade revenue
2007 Q3: 10-20 million in bundling and upgrade revenue
2007 Q4: 20-40 million in bundling and upgrade revenue
Share price after 2007 Q4 revenues are released > $100. Includes greater than 40 PE based on earnings growth potential. Upgrade revenue growth ramps towards the back half of 2007. Includes 1 to 1.5 million upgrades for the year. This ramps to a 5% upgrade rate with known partners.
Deviations outside of this projection path may push us up or down the path.
John
This is also interesting,
http://news.com.com/2061-11203_3-6075216.html
Intel should stop playing coy and make sure that vPro walks in lockstep with the Trusted Network Connect (TNC) and Trusted Platform Module (TPM) from the Trusted Computing Group. This would help make this the de facto standard on the desktop and give TCG momentum with other mobile devices (ex. PDAs, smart phones, etc.) that already outnumber PCs on a global basis. With an TCG blessing, TCG could also force Cisco to play nice with TCG, something it hasn't been willing to do so far.
I understand Intel has a business to run and AMD is breathing down its neck. But embracing TCG can't hurt and most likely can help with these objectives. Intel could win while greatly improving the lives of security professionals and end-users. What's not to love?
John
Mundo,
in the spirit of your post on vPro, I think the following link is worth reviewing again:
http://www.intel.com/vpro/pdfs/vista_solutions_brief.pdf#search=%22VPro%20tpm%22
PCs with Intel vPro technology now provide integrated support for TPM 1.2, through a discrete third-party solution. Windows Vista BitLocker* can use TPM 1.2 to provide enhanced protection for data and to assure early-boot component integrity. This helps protect data from theft or unauthorized viewing, by encrypting the entire Windows volume. With TPM support built into the PC and secure boot-up in Windows Vista, IT administrators can be more confident that sensitive information on these PCs is more secure.
* The original equipment manufacturer (OEM) must provide TPM 1.2 functionality, and the PC must be provisioned with Windows Vista* Enterprise or Windows Vista* Ultimate Edition.
John
Dell Trusted Platform
For mainstream commercial desktops and notebooks.
http://www.wave.com/products/new_services_dell.html
I am not one to predict share price, but I believe a bottom is behind us somewhere.
John
Micro,
Wavxmaster was referring to total dollars traded. There has been no drop-off. It seems you and your friends Jesse are perhaps still having trouble understanding the RS.
John
Mymoney,
and...? His post was silly.
Unixguy, the big picture has not played out in the past because the market was not shipping volumes of TPMS, but I think you knew that fact.
John
Wildman, good reply. Wave needed an action plan. Micro, the share price will rise when it does in the mean time Wave needs a plan to stay listed. A rs is not the cause of a company not performing. A reverse split is an action some non-performing companies have taken. The actual act of a rs does change the market cap or your invesment.
John
My opinion:
Wave is in the same position today as it was on Friday morning. They are doing what they have to do.
Any discussions about Bluerisk?
http://www.bluerisc.com/
http://www.nsf.gov/eng/sbir/SECTOR/Devices%20I/BlueRISC.pdf
Very good news on the financing. We have gotten quite a few good signs lately and our ultimate success will soon become evident for people beyond this board, imo.
John
Recent additions...a privacy policy and terms and conditions?
http://www.wave.com/about/privacy.html
http://www.wave.com/about/termsandconditions.html
John
Great news today. The infrastructure that needs to be in place for our successful launch continues to develop incredibly well. The dominoes are falling into place making our prospects look better and better every day.
John
I don't know if this has been posted:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/brand/en/d820_d620?c=us&l=en&s=gen
click security software.
John
Awk and Weets, nice thoughts...I agree. It is the big picture that I care about and things are lining up quite nicely. It is amazing to me how many people concentrate on the day to day share price.
John
Great news today.
A little context and disclaimer: I have been bullish on Wave for quite some time and have never traded (only added). I have done so only because I believe in the long-term prospects of the company and have not been overly infatuated with exactly when it will happen. Along those lines, I have previously expressed my thoughts to management on my belief of when things would logically occur and asked for why that may or may not make sense.
My thinking had been that things will occur, but later rather than sooner. Logic has always told me that more infrastructure announcements needed to occur first. Well, with this Broadcom announcement and our great progress with Dell, I am of the opinion we are on the verge. In fact, I added a little today.
While Weets' 400 million dollar revenue number may be higher than I think for next year, I do believe we are poised to take off and have great reason to believe this company will soon break out. I also believe we may be as undervalued at today's market cap as we were overvalued at our peek market cap. The share price only tells part of the story, but we all should have reason to believe the story will get more interesting.
Thanks for all of the great dd.
John
ootommy,
yes, in the near-term, lol.
John
CPA, you are confusing expenditures with revenues.
John