Well the silver lining is when they post highly positive Rida data Monday we can be sure the good news isnt built into the price :)

it is a little unsettling though.

Complete common sense speaking but wouldnt that lend to plain old bad planning in trial design?...3 times?? The only true marker that gets a drug of this type approved i.e. AMRN is to show an actual CV benefit (read fewer incidence). If AMRN cant show it then it will end up the same way as the others mentioned. If it can then we are a mere percentage of future market cap. I dont know if either the ANCHOR or MARINE results highlighted such a benefit. Guess I will have to look.

What if the fda now says that they will not approve any cv drug without an outcomes study.

Is that something that you think is coming in the near term?

the way I see it, it would have been better for AMRN (which I own) if the AIM-HIGH study would have been wildly successful....but had side effects. As of this failure AMR-101 really has nothing to bring to the table that will be groundbreaking. Somebody tell me that I am mistaken.

I am and have added on dips. Holding through what I consider the most likely outcome and that is a buyout in the $30's

I like this price action as it reminds me of the movement that we had around $5.50 . Lots of accumulation and if the truth is known today, it might reveal that HB is discouraged at this moment to do an offering (possibly hoping for an abstract price run)....which is positive in that now he waits until $11.00ish area. or after ASCO which should coincide with the aforementioned $11. My opinion only.

If those short numbers take into account the drop to $8.11 last week then I think a fair amount of covering went on. What do you think?

Good guess given his name is on the picture.

What on earth would have provoked you to do that PGS?

no

In case this helps in the assessment>

Quote:

It's not clear this trial was powered for OS, so stat significance on OS from this trial is probably unlikely.


From the original PR http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/83531.php

"The trial is 90% powered to detect a 33% increase in median PFS corresponding to a hazard ratio of 0.75)"

"This pivotal trial will assess progression-free survival (PFS) as the primary endpoint and overall survival as a secondary endpoint"

thanks for the info Peter. I believe regardless of the PFS numbers, which seem borderline until you know the magic behind the assessments, the OS in various cohorts will be substantial and drive the approval.

Has nothing to do with believing you but the reality remains that during the conversation with the panel you can bet that the discrepancy in the data will be highlighted.

I am also sure that you dont think that Rida approval/non will be based solely on that IRR read do you?

ODAC is going to look at the IRR numbers and not the site investigators
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I dont recall anybody saying that.
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The site investigators likely had a bias because they WANTED the drug to work because they see their patients suffer, etc., and perhaps kept them on the drug longer to "give it a chance". IRR only sees the scans, they don't care...hence, unbiased.
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Lots of conjecture in that statement.

All good points.

I believe that the silence of MRK on Rida is what is driving the thought that Rida has minimal use. I happen to think it is a positive view....keep some of the good stuff quiet...which is a basic biotech SOP.

Secondly, no one has been able to provide any logic to the differences in findings between the Independent Review committee and the investigative site guys. My thought is that the true number lies between the 21% and the 52% in PFS. In my mind, even if it was on the short end and showed an actual 30% then tack on the OS in a tough to treat cancer and you get a blockbuster drug when coupled with the massive number of combo opportunities.

I think if he does it now then he knows that SUCCEED data may not provide a boost. On the other hand, if the SUCCEED readout is highly positive then we bump a quick $2-$3 and then the offering follows minutes later. All my opinion.

Fair enough but you have totally written it off and if Pona doesnt get stopped in the interim look then there will be minimum cash flow except from Rida for a while. That is why my scenario will play out.

I cant imagine why some of you cant see the breadth of Rida. Put me on the record as Rida being the greatest revenue producer over the next 5 years and potentially beyond.

Reminds me of the time when I bought netscape in the teens and sold it for $150-$160....shortly after it was nearly dissolved.

They arent talking about a range of 2-22 I dont think. It reads to me that it was extended by 2 months

Thanks for the reply. Exactly what I was looking for.

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OS data are better than expected
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Got it. Just wondering what that really means from a quantifiable perspective.

Well you missed the point again....the point is that the question wanted all comers....not just rah rah types. The whole thing meant to develop an expectation good or bad with no bias one direction or the other.

I thought I made that a point in my post actually and I think we are all bright enough to have an opinion. You dont want to participate then dont. But hope you will.

So while we wait, can we quantify in any way what we would consider "degrees of success" of the data in the abstract (should it give enough info for judgment of course)?. Understanding that the results are not a simple structure, what keywords and/or percentages as examples would be considered successful to each of you?

Interested in all responses.

But the timing for this is pretty decent I think....let the negative big picture news get out there and drag the markets down prior to positive Ariad news...then the negativity runs its course just in time for a "perfect storm" pop by a drug that assists Sarcoma patients for the first time in decades. I call it SWEET!

Wouldnt count it out yet BTH. If the ASCO SUCCEED abstract is information rich then we move up substantially, regardless of the overall market. I believe investors have taken the extent of their positions (based on price movement), over the last 60 days and the broader market gives them little reason to go heavier. Its all good.

How can it be that there is an entire promotional page for AMOLED and no contract with UDC???

http://www.lgdisplay.com/
and then go to products tab on the left and click on AMOLED

give it time legs. imo, it is healthier that it is digesting the recent massive gain. My personal play is waiting for a partnership which I believe is coming then take some off the table to play with the house money. I wont be completely out of this ever...unless a buyout takes me out which is fine. Just pray it isnt an ARNA where during the panel a "rat cancer" from pre-clinical shows up that nobody knew about. That still pisses me off. I do not believe we are in that boat however.

Thanks dough, I will take a look at Natcore. I usually dont like solar but this appears on the surface to have some potential.

Here's to $22 in June (raising a glass of JW Gold label) :)

Can you imagine $22+ by June expiration??

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Amarin-spread-sees-good-optmonster-399435307.html?x=0&.v=1

No need to split hairs on the verbiage...usually means that you dont have a point.

Anyway, all this will play out shortly and we will see.

bw, I think you might be confusing an ASCO sell-off with a bear raid flash crash. They are essentially unrelated. The bear raid will happen and $6 is probable...even for a split second which I believe will be the case. An ASCO sell-off will be many times more mild and has no chance of hitting $6 but could be a hair cut based on the readout of SUCCEED OS data.

Not to worry. If SUCCEED reads out positively there will be no retrace. If it disappoints then look at one of my favorite long term holdings (11 years)...PANL, as an example to see the results.

Anybody see the link for the presentation that is suppose to start in the next 4 minutes?

Thanks Dew. Will take that as council.

Ok. Well that makes the math more doable but I would think that would be broken out from "insider" ownership or should be....unless I just dont understand what an "insider" really is. thanks for the reply

Here are a couple:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MNTA+Key+Statistics

http://moneycentral.msn.com/ownership?Symbol=MNTA

Dew, forgive my ignorance but how do either of those numbers compute to be 15% (per various insider holdings summaries) of the 50M shares outstanding?

Disregard the Vanguard piece....I must have been overcome by wishful thinking and misread it...apologies