is making moves.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
No, this part:
"...and relating to the potential resolution of outstanding disputes with JPMorgan."
This caught my attention!
Like I said earlier, the next few days (especially Thursday and Friday) will be very exciting. If settlement is on the table for the weekend, we should have a pretty decent indicator by then.
Its only Tuesday.
If the voluminous activity we've seen on the commons was in fact meant to cover short positions, then I think we've taken the first major leap in the settlement direction. We have three trading days before the holiday weekend, which means there is plenty of time for more pro-settlement activity to unfold, i.e., the preferred shares trading hard.
Its too early in the week for you to assume that its "safe to say there will be no settlement this weekend." There has been alot of activity pointing in that direction and I don't see why settlement should be off the table simply because we closed at $0.15 today. Remember, there is still a significant amount of MM activity and the market as a whole did poorly today.
That's just my $0.02 though. Feel free to believe whatever you want.
Jerle, I really don't understand what forms the basis of your opinions. How do you figure that settlement is out of the question based on PPS?
(1.) We have discovery due within the next week or two -- so if you believe JPM is going to settle before anything is produced, then probability supports the notion of settlement over the holiday weekend;
(2.) WAMUQ volume has been through the roof since Friday afternoon, which clearly indicates that shorts have been covering their positions -- especially since the bulk of the volume has been on the commons;
(3.) It is likely that something leaked out to institutional investors, which caused the sudden spike in PPS -- which was tempered by MMs today to allow for higher volume at a lower PPS.
Based on these three things alone, I can't see how you find the basis to negate even the possibility of settlement this weekend. You flip your opinion more than daytraders flip our stock.
I suspect that too, but I'm looking for a factual confirmation of our suspicions.
The volume has been significant enough to support the theory, but we need the numbers to validate it.
TJ1947, if the data isn't going to be updated until September 10th, how did you confirm that the shorts have been covered?
Inquiring minds want to know.
If you are, in fact, right and shorts have been covered, then JPM should be free to settle this with zero exposure to short interest.
Thanks for the link, but apparently the short interest portion is yet to be updated.
Wait, is that confirmed?!
If so, that has to be the best news I've heard all week!
Agreed. The higher base is a higher sense of security.
Indeed. This trend is all too familiar.
Claudio, you're absolutely right. Seeing the PPS rise yields a nice sense of security as we wait for settlement to come through.
There is quite a bit of MM manipulation going on right now and I suspect the crazy volume we've been seeing since Friday afternoon is attributable to some kind of information (may not necessarily be settlement, per say) that leaked out into the institutional market. Since then, MMs have been trying to keep the PPS under control while shorts cover their positions -- hence the reason we're seeing more activity on the commons than the preferreds.
We can speculate all we want and theorize as to what kind of information leaked (if any), but lets not lose sight of what is happening with the litigation -- especially the discovery that JPM is supposed to be turning over (but probably won't) in the next week or two. Between the imminence of discovery and the recent unexpected volume spike, the next few days are going to be very exciting. Depending on the activity we see on Thursday and Friday, I think we might see something happen over the holiday weekend.
The Florida market is down right now, so it would be a solid place to invest for a significant ROI in the next few years.
Looks like your theory is right on, drrugby!
The news is going to be disclosed by Labor Day Weekend.
Get in, my friend.
I think the MMs are going to try to hold this down for the shorts to cover, but thats it.
Good luck to all and go WAMU!
Anytime. I can't wait to meet everyone when this is all over.
I could be wrong, but I don't think we're going to see much of a dip (if any at all).
I think the leaks trickled down on Friday.
This is going to be over very, very soon -- by Friday, IMO.
Its not going to happen today, but it may certainly happen this week. The MMs are going to be covering there shorts throughout the next few days and I suspect we'll hear some news on/by friday. There is no other explanation for the ridiculous volume we're seeing on this.
I'm showing $0.1613/share USD based on 0.113€/share, courtesy of the live exchange rates on www.xe.com.
The gap from Friday's rally is high at over 25%. This is going to be the week we settle. Hold on to your shares, gentlemen.
LOL
I feel like a kid going to sleep on Christmas Eve. Hopefully Santa will bring us a nice surprise in the morning -- like ridiculous volume indicative of shorts covering their positions and settlement over the Labor Day holiday weekend.
Woot Woot!!
Alright, back to my homework -- lots of cases to read if I want to be prepared for class this week. Goodnight everyone.
If you hold on a few more months you might be able to get an order in on the new R8 V10 once it is availed in the U.S. market.
Thanks Rickszy, I appreciate it.
Jerle, I know some really good doctors who might be able to help you out, haha.
Just kidding. In all seriousness, hold on to your shares. This week is going to be very interesting and exciting for all of us.
Good luck to all!
Don't forget to say your prayers tonight. If we're lucky, all of our lives will be taking a turn for the best at some point in the next week.
Good luck to everyone and go WAMU!
Agreed.
This next week is going to be very exciting. Lets hope for the best.
Yes, for WMI...but I believe when we're discussing book value (for damages valuation), we're referring to WMB.
Drrugby, I thought book value was appraised at $26B -- so wouldn't the max really be in the ballpark of $30/share with book value x 2 ($52B)?
I have to agree with you, Druggby. Its going to be a very special fall/winter indeed.
Thats an interesting take on things, drrugby. I assume the activity you referenced is solely after/with a leak on the market -- correct?
I feel once JPM or WMI files a Motion to Approve Settlement and a settlement value is referenced therein, we'll see the market open up on the following day with an approximate reflection of the post-settlement PPS (with the order of Judge Walrath approving the motion yielding the actual post-settlement value). Until then, your scenario looks pretty realistic because its based on the leak itself.
Lets hope nothing gets in the way this time. We all want (and need) this settlement to go through smoothly.
lol, that was a good one. Thanks for the thought, Doc -- very much appreciated!
Jerle, I don't think its a Lehman mirror run because the two cases are substantively different -- its not like a favorable ruling in one will yield a PPS increase in the other. You may disagree, but many/most of us firmly believe that this will be over very soon. Hopefully today was a sign that this is it.
lol, I was hoping you would catch that.
Hey XOM, you missed a pretty sweet run. With no news, we managed to jump 34.93% and close at $0.141 with volume of 41.59M for the day. There was some talk about shorts covering, but the volume is just too high to support that theory. The alternative idea is that some news leaked out in regards to settlement - which we all (except for Jerle) know is coming reasonably soon.
Have a good weekend. I'm sure we'll all be monitoring the forums like hawks for updates. Good luck!
I've checked all of the adversary proceeding dockets on PACER as well as the bankruptcy docket with no relevant filings to explain what happened this afternoon.
As I posted earlier, the last time we experienced this kind of movement was when the parties were amidst settlement negotiations in March (after which JPM filed its adversary proceedings and effectively ended all settlement talk). Given all of the DD and the pressure from incoming discovery/depositions as well as a probable and favorable ruling on the $4B, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the result of a small leak. Its just too much volume to be the shorts and nothing else (at least nothing logical) explains it.
Keep those fingers crossed and say your prayers, this could be it. Good luck everyone!
Thats a good point, Biz.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't we on the brink of the March settlement talks (which were dismissed after JPM filed its adversary complaint) last time volume was this crazy?
I like the sound of that!
Theres nothing new on PACER. I have no idea what could be causing the spike short of MMs covering or a small leak.