is working (too hard) for a living
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DS -- I agree that in early stage companies, 'emotion' probably plays a larger role in pps than standard discounted cash flow with a risk factor -- although arguably the 'emotion' simply impacts the perceived risk in the eye of the investor and we therefore end at the same place.
The fact that some dollars (apparently $100K from two different third party entities, plus $1M or so from one to pay off some of the payables) have actually flowed into 'bankrupt' (no cash, lots of debt) EEGC would result in a reduction in perceived risk.
If risk of failure moves from 99.999%% to 99.995%, say (I'm sure some will say it is higher, some lower, not the point), that means likelihood of success moves from 0.001% to 0.005%, which could account for a 'five bagger' improvement in stock price such as we've seen.
We need someone to invest $50M, not $2K (100K shares); I doubt interested $50M investors are posting here.
Actually, oil price DOES have a relationship to the pps of EEGC.
Stock price is the present value of the anticipated discounted cash flow, risk adjusted.
So, the stock goes up and down based upon perceived risk (that is, likelihood of the expected volume of oil getting to the market), and profit per barrel. As cost per barrel remains relatively constant, expected profit does change based upon market price.
Having said that, perceived risk is the driving factor.
(Left out of the analysis for simplicity but obviously also contributing is whether some business other than oil might have value. But point is, price of oil does impact value)
Batting -- Many posters on this board have been discrediting recent announcements about 'pending' funding for drilling and other projects (flare gas technology, Empire credit cards, etc) because they have not come true in the past.
Consider Libertas, Sure Capital, Hunter Wise, TXO - Tasmania, NBD Partners (so far) -- plus Mr. Bendall's infamous $50M letter of credit.
With respect to April 2 drilling, posters are simply looking at logistics -- without funding, there is no way drilling can start in two weeks.
Note that there is NO expectation of an announcement from the company regarding April 2 not happening. The company NEVER announces changes to prior announcements (projects, funding, or drilling start dates); they just end up not happening (exception: six months after announcing that the Grand Monarch acquisition had been 'completed,' the company did announce that negotiations had not been successful).
Now, you may well be correct that the company will announce 'something of (actual) value' in the near future. We longs hope so -- but based on past history, not all share your high expectations.
Glad to hear you expect good and great things for shareholders.
I think there is agreement that 'fame and fortune' lie in drilling; as jerseyfish said, that is EEGC's priority, coal follows.
So, what is your (and jerseyfish) projection for EEGC's Bellevue drilling commencement to meet the April 2 commitment, two plus weeks from now.
Please include completion dates for necessary pre-conditions, which would include (others may add required activities):
- Funding
- Submission of permit applicaiton
- Permit approval
- Beginning of rig mobilization to site (so, a built-in assumption about availability of a suitable rig)
- Rig gets to site (so, some built-in assumption of where it is coming from)
- Rig starts drilling
It is OK to say (for this exercise, not for EEGC credibility) it isn't going to happen by April 2, but then give an alternative timeframe.
Old stickies because not much news since December -- one FL store opened, as projected; five projected AZ stores not opened. Board speculation about a Montana store or two. Reality show filmed for a couple of weeks, now in post production; no annoucement about anyone picking it up for showing.
All of this against an 'independent' research report which has projected 100 store openings in 2013, 50% company owned.
So, lack of news may be why stock sagged 50% after the report was published during a virtually unprecedented general market charge.
Up until today!
Today's strong volume/price action would suggest that -- perish the thought -- someone is front-running news, enjoy the ride!!
Concur with your observation that the April 2 date has financing purposes.
But, now missed -- so that indicates no financing.
The company itself has announced drilling on or before April 2.
The naysers make the following points:
- As of a very recent company announcement, no permit had been requested.
- It will take time to get a rig to the site (assuming a suitable rig is now available) and put together.
- Because of EEGC history, including its previous Bellevue drilling attmept with Hunt, any driller will demand a deposit before moving the rig.
- But, no funds for drilling have been raised despite PRs which have suggested the contrary over the years. And, it is hard to see how funds could be raised for a single attempt or at most two on a permit which expires in two months.
Could be the AZ stores are happening, but first was to be opened in February, other four by end of March.
Not good to set expectations and not meet them.
I agree with the idea of no PR until the stores open, but that has not been the historical BCCI method, and was not the method for Arizona initially (Dec PR), New Jersey, Florida, Texas.
So perhaps BCCI is changing strategy, but that is a little inconsistent with their goal of gaining publicity as a way to create momentum for franchisees.
Will see what gets said if a PR is put out for Missoula.
The connection is the following (folks can correct, this is by memory):
- A couple of days ago a poster found a Craigslist add for Barista's baristas in Missoula. For sure Baristas, as the ad (a link was posted) talked about the reality show.
- Another poster said a friend's girlfriend had called, the ad was real (a doubter pointed out that the ad said, don't call).
- Store turns out to be in the parking lot of a Harley Davidson dealer, but that address was also shown to have an Ooh La Latte store, then followed the links to which you refer.
- Pizzaman reported that he had obtained pictures of the store, with Barista's banners. He didn't post them, but said would share with anyone emailing him.
So, that is where it stands. A hypothesis could be that Barista's has taken over an Ooh La Latte store, and rebranded.
No idea where share price will go if we strike oil, since we have no idea the level of dilution:
- Previously, as there have been no recent SEC filings; or
- Going forward, as we don't know the level of dilution required to obtain funds to drill.
You need to remember the basic equation for PPS: Total Market Value of Company (based on view of discounted cash flow)/Shares Outstanding = PPS.
And we don't know the number of shares outstanding, given Mr Bendall's 'activities.' If we can sell 49% for $5M, as per the original TXO PR, that is one thing; if it is $50M (so, initial exploration plus some development) to NBD Partners for 50%, that is another.
But meanwhile, we have NO $$$ so NO Drilling so striking oil is not likely.
Speedy(I think it was Speedy??) said EEGC people in Hobart are working on the permitting -- but have to apply, and the most recent reports said that had not happened.
Once applied, have to have approval; and then have to mobilize and execute.
Not going to happen by April 2, if someone wants a four figure offline bet I'm happy to play.
We are now about a month away from the 10-K, we will get a better insight then into the rate of growth from a revenue and profits perspective. Fourth quarter should be strong, as the company put out a PR to announce great holiday period sales.
So far, one (maybe two) stores opened in the first quarter, against a projection of 100 for the year.
And a declining stock price will not make it any easier to raise the necessary capital for the fifty of those which are forecasted to be company-owned.
If a Baristas, owned by BCCI, has in fact opened in Montana, it would seem to me that this is a material event, as it represents roughly a 10% expansion.
I'm surprised it would not warrant at least a PR.
But it does help make up for the 5 Phoenix stores promised for this quarter, but so far nowhere in sight.
Most of the 2010 loss was $7M in 'officer compensation' to Mr. Bendall, when he was given stock in return for mystery technology (we have all been waiting the 10-K to learn more about that little transaction, the 10-Q was quite vague).
Don't know where he lives, but in the US that would have created quite an income tax bill. If we can learn his domicile, maybe we can question whether the taxes were paid and get a reward which will compensate for the money we have lost on EEGC.
Jersey, I agree with EEGC's mission:
EEGC's Primary goal is OIL!
First things first...Drill for oil at Bellevue and then on to Thunderbolt.
Coal is pure gravey and will follow on
I do not think MRT is holding up drilling permits.
As I noted in an earlier post, one of the recent PRs/8-Ks noted that EEGC had not yet submitted a request for a work permit -- absent a request, can't have an approval.
Someone else asked whether you need to have pre-identified vendors to submit a work permit. If so, that would explain no work permit, since a vendor won't commit to EEGC without a substantial early payment, which won't happen without funding.
And we all know where that is -- nowhere, other than an occasional $100K or so to pay for Mr. Bendall's hotel bills and travel here and there.
The question is the value of Alpha to EEGC's coal exploration and sale plans.
As to stock price -- likely up due to sheer number and variety of recent PRs and 8-Ks, with a hope that 'where there is smoke there is fire.'
Hope so.
Not sure the point of reposting February announcements.
But, since you did -- what value add does Alpha bring to the party, that EEGC should give any of the opportunity to Alpha?
Earnie, you are being a bit too picky. Stock hit about .006 in October, so it has gone up substantially in recent times.
Whether justified or hyped is a different story.
Very good point about a 'pilot.' That is how most TV shows are done. Not sure reality TV works that way -- but I guess it could. But when you realize reality TV plot lines are all about evolving personal relationships, not sure how that works into a 'pilot' today and production a few months out, as characters may well not be the same.
But, 'pilot' would be a great explanation for the 'in edit' comment of one poster, combined with 'talk of a reality show a while back' in the recent Playboy placement.
Net would be that reality show is not a 'done deal' at this point. Need someone to commit the dollars to producing it, which likely needs a prior commitment to airing it. Pilot just part of the process.
Look forward to seeing terms of a JV with funding for drilling, filed in an 8-K.
So far, not in sight.
Twenty-five days to projected driling date, and counting.
I can't debate what your sources have told you.
I can observe, based on the reality TV shows I have observed, that taping normally goes on for many weeks/months in order for the various dynamics to play out.
Will be interesting to see what more we hear about this one. Clearly, BCCI needs third parties to 'step up' and buy and open franchises, and or finance company-owned stores.
Perhaps boring to hear, but 100 stores were projected to open this year in the recent 'independent' research report, and so far only one has. In mid December, Phoenix was announced for five stores to open this quarter, including one in February, but total silence since.
Need more stores opened with the franchise terms per the independent research report to even begin to support pps.
The is interesting:
Orlando's Java Girls shop sells coffee served by baristas in bikinis.
You are devaluing the coal, flare gas, medical waste, FASER, and Western Africa opportunities in front of EEGC.
All EEGC needs is a few $$$.
Re:
I guess its confirmed, and that is Empire Energy will be drilling,
Not sure TXO is cut out on the coal if they have paid $1.5M for 25% of Coleridge per your post of recently passed resolutions, and EEGC is paying $35M to then buy all of Coleridge. Sounds like a pretty quick profit for TXO. Even though it may pale in relation to the downstream profits EEGC expects, I'd certainly take one in the hand if offered, given EEGC's operational track record.
But oooops, EEGC's fund raising track record is even worse of late, so perhaps TXO has paid $1.5M for nothing.
I did like TXO's tongue in cheek on the drill funding question:
subject to government approvals and available funding being satisfactory to the drilling contractors. We cannot verify at this stage that these conditions have been completely satisfied
The Playboy link isn't news, it is publicity:
- News is when something happens, for example a new store or territory is announced -- or really, when a store actually opens since BCCI doesn't have a strong track record in turning the former into the latter.
- Publicity is getting the name 'out there,' which helps drive traffic to the stores and can gain the attention of potential franchisees.
To be sure, the newly hired publicity director is doing his job, and that is a good thing depending on the cost.
A concern in the link is the statement that
Earlier this year there was talk of a reality show for the girls....
Regarding the SEC filings, we all know the financials are terrible.
Of more interest will be more specific details as to the rationale for the significant dilution in the share structure for Mr. Bendall's benefit. What has he contributed, for what level of share structure?
So far, it appears that the company would rather spend time on Mr. Bendall's UK hotel bills rather than proper accounting.
It is a credibility issue that as the most bullish BCCI investor in terms of posts on this board, you would have the wrong answer to a very basic question: does BCCI own Java Girls Orlando?
This is not a new subject. Let's go back to the 2009 PR announcing the Java Girls acquisition:
The two Company owned locations are being converted to the "Baristas" brand while the trademark licenses will maintain the Java Girls brand at this time.
As has previously been noted, this is paid research -- that is, BCCI (the company, not the poster) paid Prime Equity for the report, and supplied many if not all of the assumptions.
However, for the moment let us take it at face value, and see how the company is doing. The key driver for the projected valuation is growth, with the report projecting the opening of 100 stores in 2012 -- although only two opened in 2011.
But two months in, only one store (Tampa) has opened; and six (NJ - 1, PHX - 5) of the last eight stores announced for opening, have not. The Phoenix 5 were to have opened this quarter (including one in February), but so far total silence on even the locations.
IMO, this nominal rate of growth does not support the stock price, which may be why pps has dropped 30% since report publication while the general market has experienced double digit gains.
Empire Energy Corporation International (Empire) (Pink Sheets: EEGC.pk - News) announces that the $100,000 option fee has now been paid to Empire by Nemo Partners Energy (Nemo) thereby consummating the $50m USD convertible loan note option and joint venture agreement as previously announced.
Regarding purchase of Java Girls, from the PR:
The two Company owned locations are being converted to the "Baristas" brand while the trademark licenses will maintain the Java Girls brand at this time.
In order to get government approval, one has to submit the work program, which per this morning's 'NEMO' PR, has yet to happen:
we will drill as soon as we submit work programs and get the go ahead from the Tasmanian state government departments.
There is getting to be a chicken and egg problem for the EEGC lease.
I have long thought that if there were drilling activity (even if not complete), MRT would let work progress to EEGC's benefit in some way.
However, at this stage I can't imagine anyone investing without iron-clad assurance that this is the case.
Perhaps a way around that could be real investor money in an escrow account with tight conditions about its removal by the supplier -- with release to EEGC dependent upon MRT granting whatever licensure is required.
Note: Letters of credit need not apply....
Certainly an interesting day on the market for EEGC.
1.2M shares at the open for .0278, virtually no volume afterwards (two 100K trades at .02), and no trades over .02 (source: OTCmarkets.com).
Somebody suggesting upside knowledge at the open?
Perhaps we will learn more about NBD Partners this week!
I'd settle for having the company get up to date with its 10-Q and 10-K filings, so we can better understand the share situation. We are now two years overdue.
Black Gold --
In case not found yet, links to the GMH announcements are found in pitts77h post 23640.
Not surprisingly, they are no longer on the EEGC website.
As per your discussion with pitts77h about the East Africa transaction, it is really tough to figure what is actually going on from EEGC PRs, and 8-Ks (and/or lack thereof).
This is why those of us who have been following this company for a long time do not get unduly excited by a single positive PR, as we have seen them before with no final result.
The only thing that counts right now is drilling funding, so we can determine whether the 2% COS goes to 0, or 100% -- and if 100%, is it commercially recoverable?
The increased price of oil does improve the business case for a prospective investor. For myself, I can't believe we can't find an investor, although it would likely require giving a way a much larger piece of the company than Mr. Bendall has so far been willing to do. However, Mr. Bendall keeps giving himself more shares, so perhaps he will change his mind.
There is no doubt that EEGC has the MOTIVATION to drill, it is the WHERWITHAL that is at question, and TB's presentation -- and subsequent events -- does not solve that problem.
If this were a 'slam dunk' from a drilling outcome perspective, it would have been done long ago. The fact that it hasn't happened is a clear indication that the geology, as represented in the RPS CPR, is not compelling.
Or does someone think that EEGC -- or Mr. Bendall -- is not willing to give up enough of the company to make the risk worthwhile??
It is a lottery ticket -- and lots of people play the lottery. It is all in the odds....and they are known to be 2% COS, we can all work the numbers.
Company needs to prove that its business model is attractive for franchisees as well as the equity investors required to open the forecasted 100 stores in 2010 (50 company, 50 franchisee). Based on the last six months of activity, this is a key open question.
That is, much as the idea of pretty girls with 'themed' costumes serving (apparently) good coffee may be appealing to some, company has yet to prove it is appealing to investors other than those currently trading common stock. $12K/mo/store revenue may not be compelling, given $100K of capital to open, plus working capital (estimated by the research report to be 30%, or $30K) plus (for franchisees) $50K franchise fee and 7% of ongoing revenue.
Stock is down almost thirty percent since the 'independent' research report was published with a speculative buy, while the overall market is up double digits.
Only a single store has opened this year against the forecasted 100, and only two in the last six months if I am counting correctly; and there is no sign of the Phoenix stores announced as opening this quarter (one in February).
IMO, the pps will not improve until the company provides evidence that the business model has traction. Perhaps the reality TV show, if it airs (no recent information on that) will provide the necessary 'oomph' to attract critical additional investment.
You forgot to mention the first paragraph of EEGC's October 26, 2010 PR:
Empire Energy Corporation International (Empire) (Pink Sheets: EEGC) announced on Tuesday, October 26th 2010 that Empire has completed its re-acquisition of Grand Monarch Holdings Incorporated.
Grand Monarch commits its existing credit card and Sanitec Industries medical waste contracts and further acknowledges the transfer of rights for North, South and Central America for the patented flare gas technology it has recently acquired through negotiations