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Re: Drunken Sailor post# 24300

Monday, 03/19/2012 8:12:45 PM

Monday, March 19, 2012 8:12:45 PM

Post# of 42999
DS -- I agree that in early stage companies, 'emotion' probably plays a larger role in pps than standard discounted cash flow with a risk factor -- although arguably the 'emotion' simply impacts the perceived risk in the eye of the investor and we therefore end at the same place.

The fact that some dollars (apparently $100K from two different third party entities, plus $1M or so from one to pay off some of the payables) have actually flowed into 'bankrupt' (no cash, lots of debt) EEGC would result in a reduction in perceived risk.

If risk of failure moves from 99.999%% to 99.995%, say (I'm sure some will say it is higher, some lower, not the point), that means likelihood of success moves from 0.001% to 0.005%, which could account for a 'five bagger' improvement in stock price such as we've seen.

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