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Does anyone have the statistics as to "how much equity is taken out of the home" in all these refi's?
I'm amazed at how many people I know that are taking cash out of their homes in these refi's and it must be to live on.
If that explosion killed anyone or was tied to terrorists you would see more movement on the futures. At this point, we don't know too many details behind it.
OT: Suicide Bombers in the United States.
I think it was around a year ago or more when Zeev's thread was on Silicon Investor that I posted about Suicide Bombers coming to the U.S. and it hasn't happened yet.
I believe they have finally figured out that this type of terrorism would really impact the U.S. And it won't be at the Superbowl or on another plane, it will be at our local bars, and on the public transportation we take to work. These bombers will aim to kill just a few american citizens each time, just like they do in Israel.
I hope this NEVER happens but believe this type of terrorism is very difficult to stop. I don't know how to stop it and potentially see our children growing up in this type of environment. Sorry for the late night somber post and don't really know the impact this may have on our economy or market but believe we should be prepared for it in the future.
Good luck Smart Money.
Thanks, what percent long are you right now? And in November will you be 100% or 200% or what percent long? I know you're buying the dips but what if the market just rises from here meaning do you have any specific prices you are looking at as well as timeframe?
Why aren't you 100% long right now if I may ask?
I have been refinancing and making the loan companies pay ALL my costs. Whatever rate they are quoting, they should pay ALL your costs (including TITLE and DOC - make sure you are clear that they will pay these costs) for about 1/4 of a point higher than the NO POINTS rate. I would never pay 1.6 points today.
Doing it this way, every time you refinance you lower you monthly payments with NO MONEY out of your pocket. By the way, I used a company in New York to refinance my CA home.
Yes it is Leisure World.
Not surprising Newly2B. I bought my Mom a condo in a HUGE retirement community in Laguna Hills a year ago and I thought the prices were very reasonable. That low end condo market should do well especially as the boomers jump to retirement.
I would still think the high end homes on the beach are hitting their limits or in fact falling in price.
Anyway, SoCal got hit much harder than NoCal in the 80s and kind of hasn't had it's big bubble so they may fair a bit better but the writing is on the wall for real estate across the board IMO.
Newly, this is a great idea. I think you may only have around 6 months to make up your mind however depending upon where you live because the high priced stuff will get hit hardest.
I would not be buying ANY investment real estate right now. Maybe a Class B apartment building surrounded by Class A's and renovate it and up the rents but that's about all I'd consider (outside of your primary residence of course).
It will be nice to see you joining us back on the short side mlsoft. Let's see what the USD does overnight.
S&P and NAS Futes open down quite a bit as well...
http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.asp?type=future,index&symbols=sp,nq,dj&select=&...
Looks like the dollar opened down to $93.44 unless I'm seeing things incorrectly:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=30&t=f&a=12
That's down 60 cents from Friday close.
How about this scenario?
1) This overpriced POS stock (BRCM) preannounces the middle of June. SARS, we're taking market share, our products are great, customers are still a little cautious, guidance needs to come down, 2004 will be huge...
2) At this point the market has already corrected 10% from the current top.
3) BRCM is now trading at $15
4) Everyone is calling to buy the dip and this is the end of the correction.
5) Everyone who follows the trend is telling you it is still up.
4) We break the October lows in July and you cover at $8
Does that sound like a plan?
Equity P/C down to .42 Zeev? Am I reading that correctly?
Wonder if we see the slow rise off the morning low like we did Wednesday and Thursday or if we truly trail down today?
Looks like FED drains $10.75B today. (Added 2.75, 13.5 expired).
I always expect the Michigan Consumer Confidence number to beat consensus when the stock market has been flying.
CPI, Housing Starts, Semi Book to Bill, and DELL earnings indicate things are getting worse across the board.
Sorry Cannabis, I always know you're just having fun. Sorry my post came across as serious as it did. I just see companies like Dell that are still flat with forward guidance and high PEs get rewarded. They should be cut in half with reports like this. It will happen soon enough across the board IMO.
DELL: with flat earnings and an almost 50% rise in stock price in the last 3 months, PE of 43, I would be greatly surprised to see them FLY AHs.
Their guidance is basically flat for the full year and they deserve a PE of 43???????
This is the one company that I thought could really positively surprise and they didn't.
All this talk about "great earnings reports" this quarter is surprising. They seem very lackluster to me, especially considering forward guidance and current PEs.
BEAS just announced flat guidance for next quarter, basically in-line with consensus, maybe a little light on REVS.
Stock jumped about a half an hour ago but seems to be coming back now after flat guidance.
Quick Earnings Roundup:
ANN - Matched EPS and REV but brought next quarter guidance down indicating another troubled retailer.
BEAS - Matched EPS and REV - Guidance coming on conference call which started at 5 PM EST. Lookout.
BRCD - Matched EPS and REV - Guidance coming on conference call at 5:30 PM EST. Lookout. Note Proforma was breakeven vs. GAAP loss of 57 cents!
INTU - Beat EPS and REV slightly. Guided next quarter EPS up a penny and kept REV in line with consensus. Reasonable report.
CA - Beat EPS and REV slightly. Guided next quarter EPS and REV up slightly. Note Proforma EPS was .08 and GAAP EPS was a loss of 18 cents.
Here are two examples (BRCD, CA) of huge disparity between GAAP and Proforma greatly skewing current PEs and showing how overvalued these stocks really are.
Overall, futures up slightly on the news mostly due to INTU IMO.
OT: "Was that a Refi money cash-out, no income verif 30-yr fixed Fannie Mae loan? TIA"
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It was a REFI, 15 year fixed, no income verif, NO CASH OUT (unless they count the couple grand I got in settling to have a NO COST LOAN), credit score around 690, LTV 30%.
OT: Phineas, my loan was a no income verification loan as well and got them to eat all the costs. Many wouldn't do it but a company named IPI Skyscraper (also known as MortgageIT) with offices in New Jersey and New York financed my California loan. I found them through Lending Tree but I must have had 20 different conversation with them until they finally honored the original offer (they all try about 5 different bait and switch techniques). This was 6 months ago, 15 year fixed jumbo at 5.75%, 30% Loan to Value ratio, no prepayment, UAL miles.
You must be very detailed as this is a dirtier business than used car sales and you must be determined and have a little time to play their game to get the best rates available.
Try a 15 year fixed and you will get lower rates than the 30 year fixed (if you can afford the payments).
Also, make the lender pay for ALL your costs, INCLUDING TITLE, DOC, ETC. They will do this by giving you a slightly higher rate (maybe a quarter of a point or so) but this way every time the rates go lower by at least a 1/2 point or so you can refinance with no cost out of your pocket.
Of course make sure there is no prepayment penalty for paying off your loan early.
That's what I've been doing and am just about to refinance again. If you go through lending tree, you get about 100,000 United Airlines (four round trips in US) miles for every $500,000 financed.
Hope this helps anyone on the thread.
Bigger than usual divergence on COMPX vs. NDX today.
Exactly on bullish sentiment high on this thread and this thread IS generally bearish. In fact, I am seeing so many Johnny Come Lately's now saying "I told you so" and "follow the trend" and "we're in a new bull", etc., etc., etc.
Most of these people are the same people who asked Zeev every day what the market is going to do and didn't know the trend changed back in October and most will be long through 15-20% of the decline. Determining the change in "trend" is just as hard as trying to call the top or bottom. However, seeing more and more confidence in making these proclamations tells me we're a little bullish here.
It's not hard to "pile on" after a 40% bounce off the lows and claim to be a prophet.
I'm not worried, I'm just curious. A falling dollar hasn't helped my shorts yet. I wonder who's buying if it's not Greenie and his boys?
Looks like the dollar has risen substantially since this terrorist incident in Saudi Arabia. Does that make sense? In response to rising oil?
So these are not "apples to apples" PEs and the October PE was really much higher than 15 on the DOW if you compared it to the way PEs were calculated back in 1982. Sure there have always been games but PEs in this market are still in the stratosphere.
Whoever posted the Proforma, GAAP, and CORE PE chart a couple of days ago I bet would have PEs far higher than 15 in October of 2002. Please post again if possible.
Thanks.
Are these "apples to apples" PEs Zeev? Are you comparing 1982 GAAP to October, 2002 Proforma?
Zeev, or anyone who cares to comment? Two things that are troubling me as to future direction:
1) Current P/Es - whether it's GAAP, Proforma, or Core. Have we ever had a new bull (cyclical or not) start from these valuations? BEAR CASE.
on the flip side:
2) It's been 6+ months since the October lows and we have been rising which is the longest streak in this 3 year bear. Has this happened in other bears? BULL CASE.
Are there any other indicators that rank stronger than these two and at the end of the day which of these seem to stand out the most and may determine future direction?
Thanks.
Good, I thought this may get them in trouble. SEC is quick on this one. Serves Tom Siebel right for consistently deceiving the masses with his worthless rhetoric. Wonder if his SFA system saw this coming? After all, it predicted the end of the recession 9 months ago, right? Just a quarter before Siebel's earnings collapsed.
I don't believe SARS will be a big deal a year from now but I do know that it IS impacting business in Asia, especially for American technology companies that have a decent portion of their revenue coming from Asia. Channel checks over the past month have showed much more than a "blip" on the radar screen in terms of earnings impact. There definitely will be earnings impact this quarter for those companies and some will be very significant. Business has come to a grinding halt in Asia for many of these companies. I think the big technology conferences of late have helped fuel a pop in tech recently as well and they will come to an end in a week or two.
Thank you both for your explanations - very helpful.
Any comments on two things?
1) Consumer credit just released at $931M vs $3.5B increase expected.
2) NDX leading COMPX down today
Figured you may be able to shed a little more light on this. Thanks for the explanation.
mlsoft or anyone know if this is higher of lower than expected? I remember SEMI laid off about 15% of their workers a couple of weeks ago citing slowdown in semi industry.
Odiemutt, this was the ONLY move for CSCO, not the smart move. They don't think they will beat the revenue number for next quarter so must guide down a little.
If price goes up and revenues don't with 70% profit margins already the P/E becomes frothy and the stock will come down.
However Chambers little "bias up" when pushed on the "flat" comment just saved the big selloff on the stock in AH.
Mlsoft, the drop from 15.95 to 15.60 was immediately after Chambers said the revenue will be flat for the next quarter. This was before any of the analyst questions and Chambers is being his charming self.
Now Chambers just (30 seconds ago) said his bias on the revenue would be a little up - let's see if this pushes the price a little - looks like worth at least 10 cents already.