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More and more I think Bush's ethanol VEE-HICK-L program is like Regen's Star War's NUCK-CLE-R program. Never meant to be actually implemented but just to act like major deterrent to other side.
I am those earth day and organic food haters at
http://www.croplifeamerica.org/
will refute it all.
I got a 1590 on the Chemistry section Graduate Record Exam. That worked out to 2 wrong.
The drawbacks to ethanol are multifold
- More volatile then MTBE so more losses to evaporation
- Europe will not be able to bail us out if hurricane causes shortages since they do not use ethanol.
- Corn farming vs other crops are much harder in terms of soil erosion and water usage.
- Increased costs for foodstuffs and animal protein will be enormous as corn for ethanol production competes for agricultural acreage.
- Food available for hungry in the third world will drop as all demand for corn for ethanol increases
- Lower energy content per gallon of ethanol will worsen fuel economy observed.
- DOE predicts that Lula de silva of Brazil will have to bail us out of ethanol shortfall this summer with exports.
- Ethanol blended fuels can't go in gasoline pipeline so local supply disruptions are almost a given.
- Tankers or trains loaded with ethanol heading to NY NJ CT & MD will be great terrorist targets. You are talking about thousands and thousands of rail cars loaded with ethanol.
It seems that 3/4 of the ethanol consumed in summer gas this summer will be consumers in the Northeast who are at the far end of the Gulf States pipeline that can't transport gasoline with ethanol it it.
My take it is a government plan to gut all clean air regulations by giving consumers mucho pain in their wallets by giving them more and more uneconomical but extremely clean burning ethanol in their gasoline.
Conclusion of the eia report for department of energy.
As highlighted in the summary, the rapid change from MTBE-blended RFG to ethanol-blended RFG on the East Coast and in Texas will likely occur before the summer driving season begins. The many changes that must take place to convert production from finished RFG to RBOB and to add equipment to terminals not now equipped for blending is a large challenge by itself. In addition, supplies of ethanol will be tight, and the need to move increased volumes of ethanol from the Midwest to the East Coast will strain transportation capabilities. Overall, the complexity of the transition away from MTBE-blended RFG may give rise to local imbalances between supply and demand and associated price surges during the change. As the summer progresses and demand grows, the tight supply situation is not likely to ease significantly, leaving the market exposed to the increased potential for price volatility in the East Coast and Texas RFG regions.
Ethanol, Corn and Monsanto.
The whole bunch of crooks in power should be in jail. Basic laws of thermodynamics tell you that it takes more energy input and related cost to produce enough ethanol from corn to drive your car 1 mile then to produce the amount of gasoline to drive that same mile.
Bio of Monsanto's general counsel.
Charles W. Burson
Executive Vice President, Secretary and General Counsel
Responsibilities
Leads Monsanto's legal organization and serves as Secretary to the Board
Work History
The White House, Office of the Vice President: Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff and Counselor to the Vice President
Legal Counsel to the Vice President of the United States
Attorney General, State of Tennessee
Partner in the law firm of Wildman, Harrold, Allen, Dixon and McConnell
Attorney at Law, Burson and Burson
More on why consumers are going to get reamed by ethanol in gasoline.
It is hard to believe there is an organization that believes that earth day, organic foods and restricting pesticides in foods are bad things.
http://www.croplifeamerica.org/
When you talk about ethanol you talk indirectly about corn.
I noticed the bio of Monsanto's general counsel very interesting.
It is going to be a very rough summer driving season if the people who brought us Enron; war in Iraq and now ethanol in gasoline get their way.
Charles W. Burson
Executive Vice President, Secretary and General Counsel
Responsibilities
Leads Monsanto's legal organization and serves as Secretary to the Board
Work History
The White House, Office of the Vice President: Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff and Counselor to the Vice President
Legal Counsel to the Vice President of the United States
Attorney General, State of Tennessee
Partner in the law firm of Wildman, Harrold, Allen, Dixon and McConnell
Attorney at Law, Burson and Burson
I guess the top in energy prices is near if there calling John Q Public to lock in that these rates.
I got a call on natural gas when rates were approaching $15 per mBTUs. Natural gas is now $7.48
I been thinking about ethanol and the vested interests that win big when Congress mandated ethanol.
The title of Monsanto's web page about seed corn says it all "fuel your profits".
http://www.monsanto.com/monsanto/us_ag/layout/enhanced_value/pro_per/pro_per_corn/fuelyourprofits.as...
Move up to led upwards by the narrowing sectors still participating Banks, Biotechs and energy sectors with some rotation into safer havens like Drugs.
Softy reports on Monday and should give a lift to market.
Hanoi Bill got warm welcome from the Vietnamese.
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/V/VIETNAM_GATES_VISIT?SITE=NJASB&SECTION=HOME&TEMPL...
RE INTC
Price decreases coming 4/23.
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At about 2:30 after a small pullback followed by tick over 1000+, I was going to post ebulliently that we are going up and over 1310 today.
However, in the absence of aj, I cancelled post thinking I would most likely get flamed.
Above actions, just about sums up my trading abilities as well. <g>
It seems that even S&P getting caught up with cult stocks recently.
GOOG WFMI and SNDK just in this year.
It seems that S&P becoming less representative of a barometer of the overall US economy and more of higher P/Es and momo investing.
We are entering the sweet spot of the election season. Congress is budgetary economic pump going with the spigot wide open just like in 2004. I got nothing against the pump because it gets GDP jacked up and some of the pump money comes back via tax receipts for all the services directly or indirectly provided by the pump dollars.
Only first hand evidence of this occurring is my wife who works for VA was told to spend almost $1M on outsourcing medical care for additional care for vets in her service to private health care professionals by June 30 at any reasonable cost and no excuses in getting it completed this fiscal year. This budgeted money is just for one hospital in one medical department. If you add up all the VA hospitals and various departments it is real additional money on top of what is already spent.
Only difference is this year interest rates are a lot higher and FED ever more cautious about inflation. Also, Bush was mostly above 50% in popular vote polls during most of presidential election and market still got very fearful in late summer.
If polls indicate poor chances of Republicans holding majority of seats in Congress in this election, it is just about only thing to hold market back from going 5-10% this year.
Iran, Iraq, China's appetite for US Bonds all secondary issues for market vs continuation of the political game as it is played now.
RE RIMM
I was talking to someone whose been working for AT&T/Cingular Wireless for many years and as of last month he talked about 50 M wireless customers, 2 M data customers and 1 M Blackberry customers.
I keep thinking that RIMM is only getting at best 50% of the 4-5% of cellphone users who have needs for email data.
Until RIMM gets out of the hardware business, they will not be dominent provideor of wireless email data in the long term.
Top is getting very near
XMSR RMBS BLUD MSO APPL running
Biotech getting killed
Tell me more about ethanol plays
From what I been hearing, the move from MTBE to ethanol to boost oxygen content in gasoline has been doing a number on the supply situation.
RE SNDK
I just cut and paste this stuff. I did not coin the term "shortage illusion".
Despite NAND Flash prices snap back, shortage illusion should diminish on anticipated contract price falls
NAND Flash spot prices for 1Gb-16Gb surged by 2-13% during Mar31 to Apr1 but only 1Gb reports a mere 2% price growth on a week-on-week basis. Does the price rebound signify that the NAND Flash market has finally reached equilibrium? Or spot prices have already hit bottom? DRAMeXchange believes not.
We believe this is only a temporary mismatch of supply and demand as spot customers were forced to source for NAND Flash supply at higher quotes to meet urgent demand amid the insufficient TSOP package chip supply.
This false supply shortage illusion will not last over a week as April NAND contract prices will be release next week. The anticipated price drops amid flattish demand and escalating supply should dispel this temporary NAND shortage illusion.
this type of formation indicates formidible resistance
agreed
The next time we hit 1310 we're going to 1316 in short order.
Try, try and try again.
It is all question of when and how much we on last hurrah up move before signs that economy is slowing down is redily apparent.
Still plenty to worry about
10 yr and 30 yr bonds at 4.9% rising and inverted from 2 year notes
housing now a net subtractor from GDP no matter if they crow about 1.6 M new home starts. It is down from 2 M and could easily go lower.
FRE & FNM both down strongly today.
After GM recent restatement of residential mortgage business earnings, nothing in mortgage area is safe.
One is going to have to play contrary BS like FCX XMSR & CVC
BTK participating in any move up in next 2 weeks is about only thing somewhat predictable since SOX (proxy for INTC) and BKX (trottled by thoughts of more FED hikes) do not give much breath to next market nove up.
How high does QCOM go before APR 15 tax man & APR expiry cometh and traders casheth out their ST trading profits.
PS Is SNDK going back up where it was before MU/LEXR deal (I haven't heard any earnings warnings from management) or is it going to barf up the gains of last 3 weeks.
When people worry about trin and moves in averages near end of quarter, I always refer to 9/28/1999. Dow closed down for the 5 out of 6 days and was off more than 100 Points.
Trin however, did not budge off 1.0 for most of the day. Within 2 weeks, the entire market was off to the races.
I think people are hedging their bets about economy and that why you see such high PUT contracts out there.
We will be getting into earnings season soon and from what I've been seeing, earnings will not run counter to very strong consumer confidence numbers. Not to many GM-like stories out there to think serious trouble exists with economy.
I would not be too bearish since market tends to pile on long if they been siting on sidelines with cash from real estate sales and removal of PUT hedges.
You bring up Chinese computers, Acer got some $500 desktops that have Windows XP Pro on them preloaded in China that has HP & Dell beat.
Entry level servers with MSFT 20003 server or Linnex pre-loaded are surely coming soon as pressure by Intel and MSFT to make their numbers.
After seeing end of quarter discounting going on Dell and elsewhere, they are going to have to face some serious issues with increasing profits.
There is more discounting across the entire lineup going on at Dell then just the discounting of 90 NM desktop CPU's as the volume of new Intel 65NM products are released.
For example, I took a look see at the server margins. IMO it looks like the GM are in the 25-30% range. Coupled with the fact they are now selling the majority of servers under $2,000, they are having to make due with about 30-40% of the gross profit from about 2 years ago.
I don't think they are going to make it back up in volume with the strong AMD products out there.
RE GOOG
Google Plans to Sell Another 5.3M Shares
Well some of hr fundswill be buying
I got a feeling that ipods will soon be in oversupply just like Intel based computers, mp3 players and flash drives.
I seen a distributors email last week who sells the latter just start to hawk the former.
For $4K per year per worker, the supply of Chinese goods coming into the country forces us just to be buy and buy some more stuff.
Pakistani soldier
I grew up in Brooklyn and heard a lot of expressions but this is not one I've heard before.
ADBE only off .5% now
Hard to think overall market wants to test support right now wiht the lack real punishment on a earnings warning.
RE SNDK
Flash memory prices continue to drop,Slow sales of the iPod and more competition is forcing Samsung to drop prices on flash memory, according to the DigiTimes: "With weaker-than-expected iPod nano sales this year, Samsung has been trying to maintain control over its inventory levels by dumping excess stock with memory module makers, according to sources at downstream players. Samsung is pushing its products hardest with companies that it has close ties with, but other firms are receiving attractive quotes from the memory maker as well." The report says that competition from rival memory manufacturer SanDisk, who is selling memory below its cost, has been pushing NAND memory prices down even further. Meanwhile, Hynix--the third largest chip maker behind Samsung and Toshiba--believes that memory prices will drop by 25 percent as oversupply is causing a market glut.
To survive and prosper is what life is about. It is usually messy but 99% of the time it is very, very enjoyable if not somewhat humorous.
I did a genealogy search on my wife's side, who thought she was mostly Catholic Czech and German, only to find out she had a whole bunch of Scotch Irish kin. There weren't the landed gentry folk but the kind who lived a colorful existence as told in the public record down by the river living on barges for several generations.
Nothing about the human condition surprises me now.
I am somewhat ambivalent about St. Paddy day.
I am
50% Italian
25% Roman Catholic Irish
25% Episcopalian Scotch Irish
I had so many relatives who couldn't stand to be in the same room with each other. The Italian side in the 70's would have no problems starting out a political conservation "Kennedy the murderer" in my mothers earshot while the Irish side would always make the "he will have her slinging the meatballs and sauce" jokes in my fathers presence.
The Protestant side had no frickin use for anyone especially Catholics. It seems they were too busy fighting with each other to hold on to the last few acres of land out of the thousands of acres they were deeded from the British.
Now that they mostly met their maker, things have gotten more peaceful.
Why are you so down on NDX'as next move being down.
Hedge funds can take some of the small cap issues, like biotech down quickly, but 1520 would mean a value for SOX let's say sub 480 which would require a lot of new downgrades to accomplish. The pain is mostly in already on INTC & TXN
I think contrary market move is up which will fill out the rally started by financial companies, recent strength in homies and basic material stocks.
RE RIMM
It seems patent case was chump change relative to a news release about telecom provider bundling Blackberry with local, long distance and cellular.
www.cbeyond.net.
I just bought 2nd round NCAA womens tourney tickets for the Trenton arena. I am pretty confident that Rutgers will be advancing to 2nd round fairly easily.
Pretty Moribund Market
Market been practicing autoerotic asphyxiation for so long it sometimes doesn't recognize when it has gone too far.
Like spend every spare nickel in your pocket on imported goods.
$ 68 B trade deficit per month divided by 300M people comes out to $226 per month per person IOU written to foreigners using basically real estate equity lines and credit cards.
PS Looking at INTC and YHOO on new 52 W low list; how does a new high / low chart look in terms of seeing if we have reached any degree of oversold condition.
RE SNDK
I see 4.7 M shares traded. That is a lot of shares for 9:57 AM.
PS
5.2 M at 10:00 AM
AMD, Intel CPU sales fell steeply in January, claim
But every cloud has a slivery lining
By INQUIRER staff: Thursday 02 March 2006, 10:28
WORLD SALES of PC processors fell by 28 per cent in January compared to the same month a year ago.
That, said Handelsbanken Capital Markets, reflected Intel's profit warnings about a build up of stock in Q4 of last year.
In report to its clients, the firm said that average selling prices fell below $80, suggesting that the inventory build up was in notebook PC processors.
Nevertheless, every cloud has a silver lining. Handelsbanken analyst Bruce Diesen said sales of DRAM bounced back in January and flash memory remained buoyant. Not so good news for spot prices, however. DRAM prices stayed weak.
The same report said Broadcom (tick: BRCM) did well supplying wireless analogue processors, while sales of chips used in LCD TVs also continued to be bouyant.
Because they not part of BKX and BTK indexes. <g>
SNDK is lowest cost, highest product availability flash drive at this supplier. I can't see how competitors can compete.
For example for 256 MB flash drives, SNDK price is $17.78 and Lexar is $19.56
SANDISK Mfr#: SDCZ4-256-A10 SKU#: 385643 SNX#: SDK-SDCZ4-256-A10 SanDisk - SanDisk Cruzer Micro - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $17.78 1900
VERBATIM Mfr#: 95024 SKU#: 436255 SNX#: ACC-VER-95024 Verbatim - Verbatim Store n Go - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $19.42 401 Accessories
LEXAR MEDIA Mfr#: JDSP256-231 SKU#: 1064444 SNX#: ACC-LEX-JDSP256-231 Lexar JumpDrive Sport - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $19.56 205
KINGSTON Mfr#: DTI/256 SKU#: 1062380 SNX#: KIN-DTI/256 Kingston Technology - 256MB 2.0 USB Flash Memory $21.23 73
LEXAR MEDIA Mfr#: JDE256-231 SKU#: 1055006 SNX#: ACC-LEX-JDE256-231 Lexar Media - Lexar JumpDrive Elite - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $25.32 59
KINGSTON Mfr#: KUSBDTII/256 SKU#: 1033937 SNX#: KIN-KUSBDTII/256 KINGSTON II Kingston Data Traveler - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $25.62 3261
SONY Mfr#: USM256EV SKU#: 365733 SNX#: ACC-SON-USM256EV Sony Micro Vault 2.0 Classic - USB flash drive - 256 MB $28.36 32
SONY Mfr#: USM256DS SKU#: 403369 SNX#: ACC-SON-USM256DS Sony Micro Vault Ultra Mini - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $28.51 1
KINGSTON Mfr#: DTII+M/256 SKU#: 1060912 SNX#: KIN-DTII+M/256 KINGSTON DTII+M/256 256MB DATA TRAVELER II PLUS MIGO EDITION USB 2.0 FLASH DRIVE $28.80 8712
VERBATIM Mfr#: 95018 SKU#: 436253 SNX#: ACC-VER-95018 Verbatim - Verbatim Store n Go Professional - USB flash drive - 256 MB - Hi-Speed USB $29.01 1
KINGSTON Mfr#: KUSBDTE/256 SKU#: 1027362 SNX#: KIN-KUSBDTE/256 KINGSTON Elite Kingston Data Traveler 256MB USB 2.0 $32.92 1154
KINGSTON Mfr#: KUSBDTE/256 SKU#: 1032777 SNX#: KIN-KUSBDTE/256-MS1 KINGSTON Elite Kingston Data Traveler 256MB USB 2.0 $33.16 1154