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Doesn't matter... the point of the chart was that every time 20 was exceeded a p/e of 10 followed.
Sometimes it took years as was pointed out. The thing is that historically. valuations above the mean are corrected by a period of valuations under the mean.
i.e. Further bear market action.
That's true...neither extreme is hit very often. Interesting that over 20 was always corrected by a move to under 10.
Time is of no importance to the market and I suspect it will get it's due again.
Notice when p/e's have risen above 20 they subsequently dropped to below 10.
Major Bradley turn date 7/13 with retest 8/30. At this point looks like it will be a high.
http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm
They must be looking for a top. From the free area.
http://www.amanita.at/e/e-new-nopopup.htm
Trying one. In edit: Nice, thanks Cybersaavy.
Hi Doc.
From Swenlin: SMALL-CAP PARTICIPATION NARROWING
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/050701_SmCp.html
Rut/Spx ratio Uptrend
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35108&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
Sure, very oversold will give a rally more legs. I think it's very significant that risky assets are holding up here unlike the breakdown at the March top. Holding up... relative to less risky plays that is.
If we were going down for the count I would think Emerging Markets, junk bonds, small caps and techs would lead the way.
That chart series I posted bears watching to see if these groups weaken. If they hold up...big rally I think. Currently 100% cash and watching for now.
My plan is to go long when the 10EMA crosses back above the 34EMA. In the meanwhile, short term trades on the short side.
Noy really, that data point has been a lousy timing tool for a long time.
Rydex offering some new complex strategy funds.
Structured Beta Fund
Structured Multi Strategy
Structured Long/Short
Structured Market Neutral
The drawback is a 1% redemption fee on holds less than 30 days.
Preliminary prospectus.
http://fulfillment.cfgweb.com/showpdf.cfg?pid=35261&pdfid=24737
Since the secular bull market ended b&h inside 401k plans has been an exercise in futility.
Not only can you not short anything you cannot even sell the peaks to lock in profits w/o a warning letter and possibly being barred from selling for a period of time (Fidelity).
My prediction is the fund companies shrink and ETF's continue to grow as individuals seek out more versatility.
Given the narrow BB width and price proximity to the lower band, I'm thinking that lower band is the one that gets driven here. Perhaps a gap fill at 2004 (from memory) would open up the upside.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35089&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
I'm starting to see possibilities in your higher scenario the biggest reason... http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6859747
These charts broke down at the March high but are curiously not doing so now.
Investor willingness to take risk has not reversed during this decline. My take away is when the down finishes new highs are likely. Perhaps they throw caution to the wind and we set up for a blowoff top. In that case these measures would be contrarian.
Seasonally strong week ahead.
http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/updown-currentmonth.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3325.htm
No signs of aversion as riskier assets are holding up relative to safer ones. If this continues it's bullish.
Chart Series for Investor willingness to take risk
Anybody know whats going on with GE?
My bet hinges on a repeat of Ndx/Dow ratio. If we are entering a period of fear and risk aversion this chart will repeat. I'm looking for a bottom in the same area. Long Dow/Short Ndx.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34926&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
Long the Dow 52% and Short Ndx 48%. If a period of risk aversion is beginning and Ndx/Dow declines I'll make some "mad money" LOL. On the other hand if Cramer is right and it's tech outperformance I'll need to exit.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34926&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
Big volume selloff for this time of the year.
NYSE Volume 2,523,813,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,038,058,000
Late Jan./Mid April required gap downs to stem the selling.
I initiated a long dow short ndx play this morning in anticipation of a repeat. We'll see, it's a relatively low risk play.
Well, Ndx/Dow is turned up now which is a slight positive, but note that it was turned up before each leg down of the late winter decline.
Bottoming formation short term? I've seen this referred to as an "Island in the sky" on Tyx
Looks like Bond bears are going to have to capitulate before yields rise.
If the Ndx continues to outperform the Dow through this decline it will indicate that real risk aversion has not yet arrived.
Look what happened in Oct. when Dow underperformed Ndx
I consider the Obv moving below the signal line a sell short signal. Sar also on a sell. Mitigating factor Rsi5 on a short term buy.
I think we bounce soon but see this as an important reversal.
Not possible to post too many Tea.... it's all good.
I mostly look for divergences with price. The default 12, 26, 9 is fine by me. I use the default for everything. I tend to rely more on chart patterns and support/resistance levels for buys and sells than MACD crossovers.
An example of a divergence I would be looking for...
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34832&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
That's not the only ball that's going to roll downhill. Stocks/Bonds and Re all overvalued IMO. Certainly none at a level where I would make a long term investment.
Um... Lee,... you are one of the nocturnal Nq boys.
Crude sold off some but stocks did not respond positively.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL1%21&o=&a=V%3A5&z=610x300&d=medium...
Funny how stocks are discounting this rise in crude as meaningless.
Negative divergence developing on 15 minute charts/all indexes. Argues for a Mon. pullback.
Rut
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34779&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
Dow
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34780&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
The USD goes higher than anyone thinks. The caveat is there seems to be some decoupling but IMO too early to declare a new relationship.
As is typical of the commercial traders they're building shorts in the Rut and Dow, reducing longs on Ndx.
They'll cover shorts on the next IT low while building longs to sell at the next high.
And on and on, so it goes.
Nice going. You're timing may be impeccable. I still think new lows are coming on the Xau. I had 95-96 as best case too, I think we get the entry of a lifetime this fall.
Rut's due to come back too. +DI at 40 level, RSI 14 above 70 and needs to retest the break above the declining tops line. No evidence of anything but a buyable dip though.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34769&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
I think it's due to come back 2-5% here. +DI at 40 level, RSI 14 above 70 and needs to retest the break above the declining tops line. At least that's what it's done in the past. Only a 7 1/2% short bet for Mon. on it.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=34769&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154