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Flipped from short to long this morning and left GTCs between $3 and $4. Dangerous game we're playing here, but there is a small, non-zero chance this thing has a bit of a recovery.
Don't bet what you can't afford to lose! :)
Common stock can go to zero even if the taxpayers/government are made whole. That's the risk of holding common stock - you're last in line for everything.
OT: It's September. Tampa and Boston at Fenway this week, quite possibly deciding the division champ.
Yankees currently in fourth place - did I mention it's September? With any luck this signals a return to the Steinbrenner Gong Show Era, pt. 2, thereby opening up the field for everyone else.
Are you referring to the upcoming iPod refresh? iPods have been around long enough now that they're practically legacy products - not sure a refresh gong show qualifies as an "event" anymore.
...unless there's something we don't see publicly about their risk and reward profile...
Personally, I think the honeymoon is over, and they're not far from getting dragged back into line by Wall Street. Their renegade schtick works a lot better when you're a lot smaller.
And I know a few people who've been hired there over the past year - let's just say - they've grown big enough where it ain't all high-end talent joining the company.
It's returning to a more reasonable price? Damn, Lango, you know I'm a simple guy. :)
AAPL is down about the same percentage amount today, though it has preserved a bigger percentage of its ATH price.
this is a bailout for bond holders/preffered...
So many average americans have benefitted financially from the market distortions caused by Freddie/Fannie over the years that I don't think it's correct to call this a "bailout". It's more like a balloon payment to cover all the deferred subsidization costs we've all benefited from over the past several decades.
I closed a Fannie short position and have rolled a small bit of it into a Fannie long position - super high risk - but there is a chance for the Bear Stearns situation where "clarification" a few weeks from now adds a few bucks to the final price.
Not a great chance IMO - but a chance.
I don't see how this can turn the housing market - either loan qualification is kept to some reasonable standard and aggregate credit continues to shrink - or we're back to liar loans and we get to play the whole game again in 3 years.
IMO credit contraction is necessary for the longer term health of the economy. The trick is not getting killed by the treatment. :)
Taxpayers may indeed come out of this whole, but the common is toast. Mandate of the new management is to get business flowing again - even if it means stock price unfriendly actions.
Some of the dilution has already happened, and a wave of it will be coming down the pike. It will *have* to, because minimizing impact on taxpayers - the other part of management mandate - is inconsistent with not exercising the warrants part of the dilution.
At the current price it might be worth taking a flyer on, but the odds of this ever being a $10+ stock again are very very low. Not zero...but low.
OT: Just thought this was funny, not every day you see analysts put a sub-$1 price target on a stock.
https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SNA24302.pdf
Bite me...-)
LOL! Not stating a preference - just a prediction. :)
Seems that Harper dude up north will be sticking around as well.
I know a fair few on the far right are expecting Harper to show his true colors if he should manage to shed the millstone of a minority gov't. I keep telling them - this ARE Harper's true colors - he's not an idealogue, he's a politician.
Here's hoping I haven't grossly misjudged it!
The current minority population will be the majority.
I believe Vancouver is already there, if not the entire province. I'm curious - are any of the top-10 media markets in the US already there? I can think of a couple that must be close by now...
If I read this right, we're basically talking about an arbitrage between Treasuries selling at 50 year highs and MBS selling at 50 year lows. That's basically what the Paulson plan boils down to, right? Issue debt people are buying and use the money to buy debt people aren't buying.
I have a feeling we have a front row seat - right here, right now - to a really big chapter in future econ textbooks.
...how do you see this impacting oil/gas, gold, US dollar, and other commodities??
Pardon my french, but I have no f'ing idea.
What I'm reasonably sure of is that yeah - you can manipulate the price of something - but it's a lot harder to manipulate it's funadmantel value. So I'm not really convinced anything has fundamentally changed beyond the immediate short term. But I'm willing to listen to arguments otherwise!
OT - Remind me again - what is the substantive difference between the two major parties running candidates for the presidency? BTW - I'm going to call it right here, right now - Obama will pull a Kerry and hand the GOP another term.
There was a story circulating that this bailout wasn't the preferred Fed/Treasury plan at all - that it was pushed on them by the central banks and SWF who hold so much of the Treasury and GSE paper. Basically, it was either make them whole on their holdings, or be forced overnight into a balanced budget situation by not buying anymore $-denominated government or agency debt.
It's an interesting story. Running deficits is like trading on heavy margin - it works until it doesn't - and then you're dead.
I guess Monday morning will have Fannie go to zero and the rest of the financials do a minor moon shot. How long any of it holds is beyond the capabilities of my crystal ball.
They've shown the 82" monster before - it's a beauty. Four bezel-less panels (almost) seamlessly put together - very impressive.
Between upcoming Plasma, LCD and OLED tech, we're about to enter a golden age for display tech. Most consumers have already forgotten just how good CRTs look (we still use a pair of 13" Trinitrons 'round the house! :) ) - and another 18-24 months should bring developments that take care of the pros.
I would be very surprised if we don't see new Cinema Displays by MacWorld.
OT: I'm on the quieter side of the border - is anybody of political importance calling into question the Fannie/Freddie bailout?
OT: Looks like the feds are going to nationalize Freddie and Fannie. EOM.
Google seems to be doing a lot of work with AIR. Maybe they'll buy Adobe.
My buy button is blinking
So is mine. Haven't decided whether to ignore it or not.
Tough call, man. I honor your sentiment, but the App Store is already overflowing with crap. I no longer even browse there, relying instead on third-party recommendations.
...Genius...
Sounds too much like that stupid talking paper clip in Office. Seems iTunes is entering the perilous bloatware stage, where it aleady does what it needs to do quite well, but programming teams need to add more crap to justify their continued existence.
...download your favorite TV shows in HD quality...
Unless you're not in the US...grrrrrrr...you'd think at some point the execs responsible for turning content into money will realize that offsetting release dates for different geographical regions is just plain stupid in our P2P age.
On a related note - I tried the new iMovie last night for the first time. Not sure what the complaints were about, I found this way easier to use than the old style. Maybe it's 'cause I've been using FCP off-and-on for a few years, I don't know, but I won't be reverting back.
Eeeh. Haven't been paying attention - who **a* on Mr. Market?
…instant nuclear family!
Have a friend w/ partner - tried for a long long time to conceive - nothing worked. They finally gave up and adopted (more or less) newborn twins. One month after taking delivery - you guessed it - the pink strip turned blue - another set of twins.
Four kids under the age of one - it was, like, a year before they could all leave the house together!
Do iPhone users really need unlimited data?
'Twas a big to-do about nothing, IMO. I'd have to have my eyeballs glued to the thing 24-7 to hit the 6 gig limit. Which, incidentally, is 1gig higher than the "unlimated" AT&T plan, which has a (quietly whispered) 5gig soft-limit.
Not only is it the biggest force in music sales, but keeping songs off the service could prompt listeners to look for illegal downloads instead.
One of the BIG changes in "illegal download" land since iTMS ramped up is the dearth of individual songs. Lots of albums, lots of discographies, lots of "here's my entire 100gig collection" - but finding an individual track and grabbing just it has become a bit of a pain.
I would expect that to revert to the way it was during the Napster days if singles start disappearing from iTMS.
Had to google to figure out what the hell you were talking about, LOL. Noboby in our house seems to have noticed...
Maybe it's not selling so good? Cube the Sequel?
Has anyone here bought a refurbished computer from Apple?
Several, including laptops and cheesegraters. Only had issues with one, which Apple promptly replaced. Have no problem recommending this path, just make sure to check the model numbers as sometimes surprisingly old stock can show up for sale.
Android plays DOS to Apple's iPhone OS...
That would be bad bad news...
Are you connecting to the backup drive wirelessly? It seems wireless backup is especially prone to corruption/failure - I eventually gave up and just hooked everything together with ethernet.
With partners like these, who needs competitors? Now receiving calls from Rogers asking me if I'd like to upgrade my mobile for an iPhone. Problem is...they're calling my Rogers-provided iPhone.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Totally OT: Democrats to offer bill with offshore oil drilling
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Saturday when the U.S. Congress returns next month from its summer recess, Democrats will offer legislation that could give oil companies drilling access to more offshore areas.
BBQ or Salt & Vinegar?
OT: it is amazing how much healing one transcontinental flight could give Manny's knee.
For comparison, here are the estimated 2007 handset shipments:
Nokia - 440M
Samsung - 161M
Motorola - 159M
SonyEricsson - 103M
LG - 80M
Other - 184M
I thought the licensing of ActiveSync from Microsoft was supposed to take care of that...?
Dedicated "h.264" chips have been around for at least 18 months, it is not possible for Apple to get "exclusivity" on this technology.
it is within reason to expect they'll claim to distribute 1080p over iTunes in two megabits per second.
No it is not. Absolutely it is not. 1080p at 2Mbps will look like crap, and quite a bit worse than 720p with the same bandwidth. Compare it to DVD: one-quarter the resolution at 3x the (alleged) bandwidth. That's a 12x advantage that moving from mpeg2 to h.264 cannot come anywhere close to overcoming. And it completely ignores the BR/HD requirements to transport high bit rate audio, which in the worst case requires as much bandwidth as DVD video(!).
For frame of reference, typical BluRay movie using either H.264 or VC-1 burns about 30Mbps, on average, with peaks as high as 40Mbps.
BTW, Mac Pro already does H.264 encoding at approximately 5x real time, IN SOFTWARE (OSX doesn't support the h.264 hardware that has shipped inside the Mac Pros since Day 1 - which begs the question of why Apple isn't supporting this capability on existing hardware if its so important to them).
Usual Cringley "look at me I'm pretending to understand technology" bullshit.
All - literally all - shipping Macs already have mpeg-dedicated hardware, and have for probably 2 years. The only place this makes any sense at all is if AppleTV is going to get a Bluray drive and get bumped up to support 1080p. Which I would be pretty happy about...
More Apple sloppiness: the TEDTalks podcasts @ iTMS have gone high def - unfortunately about half of them don't play back on - of all things - an AppleTV.
Where's that eyes-rolling smiley...
Haven't watched the summer games since a drugged-up Carl Lewis was awarded a gold medal stripped from another drugged-up sprinter.
I just grabbed the Amazon "mp3 downloader".
Does that make me evil?