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You see, this is the reason you should push your kids to get a quality education. Otherwise, well just let the kid who works with lard all day continue and judge for yourself.Wonder if he wears one of those fancy paper crowns.
Yes sir, he's as smooth as the rocky mountains.
Mick, no your post was fair. I was just focusing on the earnings and chipping in a thought or two.
Sorry to hear about your stock loss. I hope you still have some left to play. And I mean that.
Good luck to you!
Loop, I see your still hitting on all eight, good post.eom
A word about earnings. Meaningless. If this stock during the last qt made 5 cents a share, broke even, lost 10 or even 20 wouldn't mean a think to me. I don't think there are too many investors here living for the earnings right now on this company.
This company is all about what will be, not what was. This company's mission statement and business plan is clearly stated. And the company clearly has held enough back, roughly 100mil last I looked, to ride out the transition period and to continue there own self invested development during this phase of their business plan. Or in other words the patents are still rolling out as we wait on this roadblock called Ericy issue to resolve. They have done a good job with this area of the business.
This is a speculative stock, not a mature fully established one. Current earnings are not the issue, cost management along with positioning for a roll up and roll out is.
Alley, the weakness or correction is just another part of the normal flow of the market and how it relates to overall action within it. Nothing as of late is separating IDCC from the overall market and in turn this company follows right along.
The key then is what will the overall market and IDCC will do in regards to direction until there is a release of the current news expected.
Intend to spend some time on this issue this morning. But the old rubber band is certainly stretched to the down side.
gargoyle, RE No one else on these boards in the last four years has anywhere close to his batting average.
I sure hope your not talking investing. He's been wrong so many times his middle name his Harrigan.
Geez, it is to laugh.
twelvebees, the drop was caused by a large sell. The rise back is minor because of the vol. see side bars on left. Just another day of trading. A few block trades. Nothing too exciting here.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=9129&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
TC the doji followed by the hammer means indecision followed by the bulls taking control from the bears, or buyers from sellers. After long trends a doji normally means turning point. Or bottom. Still needs to be confirmed but we are at the oversold line and vol is decreasing from the sellers.
Or in other words this is what you would expect to see at the bottom of a trend. However it doesn't mean it will shoot right back up.
TC not always. The key in your question is the hammer either high or low. Marks res to further direction. All need to be confirmed. At all times you need to look at the other indicators, both trailing and leading to find the trend and follow it. At the point of extended ranges and where you expect to see a reversal the candles take on added meaning to time. Or in other words you can "see" the res.points or for that matter support points and how the investors are reacting to them.
Well we got the bounce off the doji as expected. I would still think we get the kiss off the base at least once. Dropping vol that needed to happen has. All in all pretty standard correction.
Took the ride down on this one as it's safer than trying to time at this point.
Anyway have a good day
Well what do we have from the charts. Finished with a doji, rsi at 31 and the sto at 12.0 Lower end of the bollinger bands and money flow balanced out . Selling pressure is easing from both movement and vol scales.
Before I call the drop all but over I better turn on Bush's SOU speech. Make sure we didn't declare war on Canada or something.
Beta numbers, supply and demand cycles, buying pressure? Well sure. Fact is the markets are pulling back and were in the markets. Just a correction. Look at a dozen, 2,3,5 dozen, there all correcting.
Dow under 8k. Nas falling fast. S and P a long way from 900. And IDCC.
Well the drop is about to stop as we are closing in on oversold. The Nas at 37, IDCC at 31. And it won't matter if there is a war or Bush's actions or earnings results. The market will come back up right after the bottom of this oversell. It won't stay at the bottom, it won't drop below the oversell point. It will rise.
And for those that like to us beta as a ref. point. IDCC will rise 5 times faster than the norm. Without news.
Anyway have a good day
Rmarchma, nice to see you still have the "A" game in hand. Good job.eom
whizzeresq, very,very good post! Eom
OT Danny, regarding mail.
I understand, agree and appreciate.
Have a good Superbowl Sunday.
Ken, there you go, using that Minnesota nice again. I hate it when you sugar coat and hold back, go ahead don't keep me guessing, what are you really trying to say, go ahead man, get it off your chest!
All in fun
Business is business. And investing is investing.
Hey, we shook off that below 0 stuff, looking like the 20's or 30's next week. With low snow you never know could be at the links by late March.
Loop, a quick question.Is there any impact to time regarding a case this large going into the summer months. Or more to the point would there be a reason to delay based on the summer months schedule or do the courts down there still handle a full load?
AMS, I have a few thoughts myself regarding Tom's report. At the risk of butting into a private conversation between you and Danny I would like to express my thoughts here.
Tom C report is very negative, just depends on how one wants to read it. Look at the following.
1. He offers the opinion that the trial was delayed by both sides requesting an extension. Why would he make such a statement unless some one from either company has fed him that information, which means that either leaks have sprung up or deliberate manipulation by one of the companies.
My add, business politics supporting his previous verbiage and position.
2. He suggests under the heading of THE GOOD that the delay may be connected with possible settlement talks, he goes on to say that, that explanation is plausible but not proable. So in reality he sees no good in the extension of the trial date and in fact actually thinks that other reasons which he allures to but does not say.
My add, I guess what were missing is why he thinks this could be connected to possible settlement talks and why he thinks it is not probable. He doesn't state his reasons. You go on to say that in reality he sees no good in the extension . . . I serious doubt he is being directly fed from both legal firms and the mediator and judge to make this statement of reality.
3. He states that he thinks that the management of IDCC should not have agreed to a delay in the trial, by way of inference, and by stating that "we would not have give Ericsson more time".
My add, Separation of mutual interest combined with more business politics and the nature of his occupation
4. he feels that the momentum of the Harris victory has been lost by the company.
It has
5. He feels that the trial delay, will in itself delay the outcome of a Nokia/Samsung royalty rate setting
Likely.
6. He states that the Samsung settlement was unfavorable to IDCC.
My, Only in regards to the bull and hype he was pushing out last time. In reality the issue has been condensed and agreed upon to follow Nok's MFL.
7. He states that the inside selling was bad for the shareholders of IDCC. (My own thoughts, what was the point of announcing the big change in the rules about insider selling and then ignore them with impunity when it suits the management, a bit like setting corporate goals and when they miss them, provide no explanation of their collective failure0
My add I have already said my piece on insiders selling. However not all of the insider selling should be viewed in the same light.
8. He states that unless the company is able to pull a rabbit out of the hat the share price will fall. That of course has already happened and will continue to fall over the next few weeks.
My add, not really concerned what he says on this issue as I follow my own thoughts with time and direction. And those are more interrelated and interdependent on the overall market conditions and what I know of this company and it's position.
9. He states that he beleives the company will have resolved Ericy, Nok/Samsung by the middle of 2003. Now that would appear to me that he is saying that no settlement will take place before a trial, unless the middle of 2003 in not June 30th 2003, July 1st.
Why ,since he mentioned all three? And again why would you believe that he has a direct pipeline into the legal firms etc
10. He reiterates a buy at $22, but now adds the following risks, some of which I beleive are new,(Could be incorrect)
a. Losing the case to ericy, or getting a bad deal.
b. IDCC never resolving its royalty rate issue with Nokia and Samsung or resolving it on unfavorable terms. That of course means that he feels that a possibility exists that the Nokia/Samsung rate may be even lower than my suggested rate of 0.35%.
My add, First he is throwing out a figure of 22, and are throwing a figure out of .35. The key to this statement will be what agreement will results with ericy going back and then what going forward. The MFL's are a different animal and deserve more conversation than what I have time for. However he/you are right in mentioning a unfavorable result as a possibility.
In my opinion the top 10 or 20 percent of this board knows more than Tom does on this stock. A person should
always go with what they know.
I guess I'm coming late to the game, but what report and were can I find it. TIA
Loop, this year is very different than last concerning the telecom sector, and there is nothing wrong with planting a few seeds to see what develops. Not just this year but for the forseeable future. The exposure, in time will provide what IDCC is seeking and the reason why they're involved in the first place.
Jimlur, nope nothing wrong with them at all. Just surprised to see them there is all. No more no less no hidden message, just surprised. Didn't think you had any interest in them.
Hey, have a good day. And stay warm,
Well, Jimlur, your starting to worry me now. Don't tell me that was you that put those charts up. I just don't know what to make of it.
Got any good pointers?
Longs, no need to read.
Infinite dumbness, you posted some drivel earlier today I hear. Something about scaring me off the boards? LOL . I suppose you have sobered up since then. Nevertheless little one AS I HAVE TOLD YOU you aren't worth talking too. Remember.
You are the only one I have ever encountered who became so embarrassed and insecure that they have to go to another board to hold a conversation about me. I remember well, we were having a real good conversation about all your errors , mistakes and foolish statements when you decided to turn yellow and run to another board, aol I think and cry about how you just had your ass handed to you. Remember. I do.
Haven't got the time to play with you little wannabe's right now. 2003 is starting to look like a good year and I don't need to be fooling with the 2nd teamers. You be a good little boy now and maybe once will let you be his coat holder.
Have to put you on ignore {nice feature with the both ways ignore} as time is starting to get serious and the not ready for anytime players like yourself will have to be put on the backburner for now.
Nighty night little one
Cls, Bull, regarding once. I have him on ignore, don't feel a need to take him off. But I do have a suggestion whatever his subject. Go with the FACTS. Once does a very good job whatever the subject to spin into the unknown areas and confuse a person. Focus with the facts not the spin. And factor everything not just the piece that he will highlight.
You guys both know why you’re here. Know being the key word. No reason to argue about it.
Anyway just a suggestion, cold up here this morning. Wish I was down in TX
No worries Bull. Were going to float with the rest of the telecom's and the overbearing Nas for a while.
We been here before, left three links for charts on the following . Tele/com's, IDCC, NAS, in general you will see they went all up at the same time and now falling. No biggy. Too close to do anything but stay in my seat and watch the pregame. I would hate to miss the kick off on this one.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xtc,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&a...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=idcc,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&a...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]...
Corp Buyer,
RE: Rather, Management chooses to ignore our valid concerns by not responding to e-mails and not meeting with individual shareholders. Management's avoidance of shareholder concerns seems to go far beyond FD and reflects their intention to not confront valid shareholder concerns (e.g. disclosure policies, executive compensation, etc.).
That's has been the policy for some time. The question is why?
You would think they would have a great deal to say, considering the compensation package they have taken. Even more so if they are a small company ready to break out. But that's not the case, you could almost claim this company doesn't care about increasing exposure. In fact if it weren't for the board digging out all the info on the company you would have a hard time as an investor deciding to buy in.
That's not the way a small company becomes a big company. I really don't have a good reason for this to occur. Nevertheless I'll be around for the finnish of the ericy issue.
AMS, interesting thoughts. I guess I don't know what would cause NOK to start the rate now when they don't have too. I would think they would wait to see the results of the ericy issue. I think there could be several areas that could impact future contracts and they do have the MFL already in hand.
I think they can wait. But again just an opinion. I don't think anybody knows for sure all details of these MFL's.
Ken , I with ya, but I'm telling you straight out were going to be very rich before they ever get to 50%. IMHO
quartzman,
Well, first I don't think we'll get the 1.2 b from just US sales. However I do think IDCC has a good case to push against Ericy. IF they settle I would imagine a structured payment plan over time. If they go to court and IDCC wins there will not doubt be an appeal process. From this appeal process and the Euro sales infringement which is not addressed as of yet I also believe there will be a structured payment or perhaps an agreement included with a WW license.
IDCC I think would love to market a chip with an end to end solution. I don't know if IFX is going to be the only partner to try and market this chip or not. It's possible that they needed the exposure to a chipmaker to gather the expertise needed during their development stage of this goal.
The chipmakers haven't been doing much better than the Tele/com's, these last few years. The push of 99 to have a new computer on everybody's desk is over. The fear of y2k came and went, and the eyes are not as big as they are once where regarding sales projections
Ken,
RE: know, based on institutional ownership numbers in IDCC that I can trust that IDCC's management is increasingly viewed as excellent and with a commitment to maximizing LONG TERM shareholder value.
That just isn't so. Increased holders. Yes. But come on using rounded off numbers they have about 10 mil shares total among all. Qcom would be the closest to compare for what we do I would guess. The institutions hold 440mill there. A little less than 60% holding. For every one share of IDCC bought by institutions 44 are bought in Qcom. And that's at twice the price. But don't stop there pull up any you choose in this sector. How about NT Rated a SELL, institutional holding 34%.
Fact is most institutional have taken a very small percent stake in this company. The top 3 holding this company account for 50% of all institutional holdings. And when we talk holdings we are really talking moving the shares, 42 of the institutional increased, but 26 decreased and 10 closed! Of the 87 listed on NAQ 46 have less holdings than I do.
Bottom line the street hasn't accepted IDCC as proven yet. They can wait it out till after the results of the ericy case, the nok contract and when 3 g will really kick in. They're happy with getting singles, most here on the boards are going for the grandslam. But make no mistake the risk is ours to take, the institutional 's can't invest that way.
As a footnote. Be happy they haven't found us yet. Armhy had over 90% institutional holding about a year ago. 3.5% now. Share price has fallen from over 10 to the 2's and holding there.
AMS, RE: I hope and expect Nokia to establish a rate before an Ericy resolution or trial.
Hope sure, but expect? Care to share your thoughts.
AMS,
Those numbers and breakout look good considering the conservative qualifier. However those numbers maybe closer related for 2004, providing no added licenses other than what was mentioned.
Nokia and Samsung will owe from 2002. So first year will be double those totals. Ericy will have to pay something for infringement and I believe we have a tax loss carryover that will cover 2003. And also the Nec payments over and above sales.
In any event your numbers are inline with my thoughts { I think I came up with 50 last time I played with the numbers}as I also like to plan for the conservative outcome
Just a few thoughts regarding the trial date.
It's been my opinion that the Ericy issue has been moving along without any sense of urgency from the courts. Just an opinion but there has been no reason that I have read that would account for this very long process. { that makes sense}
The mediation that started in Sept 2001 to date has proved meaningless with regard to results.{ I should also add that may change}
Now we have a new Judge. And I believe a real sense of urgency has developed with in the court system. The 90-day delay came after the conf. Call. I could speculate there might have been a whole list of excuses made by the legal teams involved. I will further speculate the Judge after hearing all concerns gave each party 90 additional days to resolve the issues. I believe that will be the last 90 days they get in this 10 years saga. Had it been 6 mo or 9 mo or a year I would be viewing it differently. Conf call and then a 90 day delay. The point is only 90. I don't think this new Judge is going to fool around like Sanders did. And I think for the first time in 10 years there is a REAL sense of urgency.
Speculation to be sure, other reasons could certainly be given. I going with the Conf call , Judge and 90 days for now.
To the management. Very nice.eom
I believe the eclipse of Loophole will be short lived. eom
Cls, nor I, but I do grow weary of the constant drag he does provide in maintaining any meaningful discussion of the company.
I used up all my debating skills last summer when I finally boxed him into a position he couldn't recover from. He is not an investor, not trader or short and he doesn't play the option nor does he have any great knowledge of any of these. Most moves he HAS made with this stock have been poor ones from an investor standpoint. But he truly loves to "knock the stock" If he spent half that energy learning how to invest he would be far better off that he is. Anyway I'm done with it!
Below 0 tonight. I suppose I have to take a windbreaker with if I walk the lake . LOL.
Regards
Jim
Bob Z, Regarding feedback. I only speak for myself, however in my view the option would be a wise choice. I base this on knowing what this person has done in the past and how it has effected a high percent of investors/posters.
My experience with this person is based on 4 years and several hundred exchanges. Don't read bitter here as the reason for my exchanges were based on exposing the truth rather than getting caught up with spin, slant or ego concern.
I understand your neutrality as what else could be expected from you all things considered. The solution you present if allowed would be a proper fix, all in my opinion only.
BTW thanks for even thinking about it.
Jim
rmarchma,
Well if your going to do it, you should do it well. You did. An interesting and factual read.eom
Ams, I certainly don't KNOW if Ericy has to settle. Only Ericy knows that. By the same token because they haven't settle already doesn't mean they won't. A fully unknown. I don't like risking money on something that is in the cards and could pop at anytime. A trial won't catch me off guard, a settlement,and your either in or out at the time.
I don't think Ericy would gain very in finances by any short delay. I don't think Ericy's lawyers can pick and choose or push the judge.
RE In addition all time delays puts additional pressure on IDCC in terms of finances and the possibility of a takeover
Nonsense!
Ams, it seems many are reacting like the trial will never happen, while it only been delayed a short time. Big difference. In any event you have more guts than I if your selling. It would appear you think there will be no settlement, again something I'm not willing to risk. But I am curious about one of your statements. Why are you so sure there will be a 2nd delay and for what reason and why then would you than think Sept is the proper month?