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A screenshot of Fannie's 10-Q:
Total assets: 3,330,759
Total liabilities: 3,327,111
Senior preferred stock: 117,149
(Junior) Preferred stock: 19,130
I don't think you should subtract the common stock value because we're calculating common stock equity, i.e. all equity left once preferreds are taken care of.
This assumes that news actually gets leaked out ahead of time.
Receivership is quite unlikely but for much different reasons. The sentiment to get rid of FnF entirely is mostly gone, and Treasury's warrants would become worthless in receivership so they wouldn't want it either.
I can only agree with the "greedy" posts to the extent they address shareholders who have bought after the NWS. The only ones complaining about being "made whole" should be those who have held since before the conservatorship.
FNMA, FMCC, FNMAS, FMCKJ are all down 3% today. What's your point?
Of course I can only speak for myself, but there are too many moving parts to predict the direction of the share price.
If the tax bill passes in December FnF will have to take an immediate writedown to the DTAs, triggering a draw on March 31, 2018. The urgency this would create has good and bad effects: the good is that the administration could act in advance of March 31, the bad is that Congress could as well. I don't view any realistic Congressional "solution" as positive for shareholders.
The other wild card is whether or not Corker was able to slip in some more anti-shareholder language in the tax bill like he did with the Jumpstart rider. I don't think we will find this out until after the bill passes.
Glad to see you posting again obiterdictum!
Do you think SCOTUS is different enough than the lower courts to not take this easy way out, as you put it? And in your view have all of the dismissals and affirmations so far been examples of such a hands-off approach?
Thanks for posting that. I agree totally with its premise: to both preserve the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and protect taxpayers, FnF need to be recapitalized and released from government control.
Mnuchin's words have largely been consistent with this. The glaring exception is the fact that taking the NWS payments makes recapitalizing the GSEs impossible. The only way I can reconcile that contradiction is that Mnuchin does plan administrative reform after Jan 1, and that FnF just barely passed the point where they would have paid off the senior preferreds under the original SPSPA, meaning that he can now (and not any earlier) claim victory on the part of the taxpayer in the FnF bailout.
Zandi wants FnF dead. He said as much in the third House Financial Services Committee hearing. I don't know what he thinks of current shareholders but I doubt he cares about our fate.
It is incorrect. Fannie just barely passed the "10% moment" where the senior preferreds would be paid off if the NWS had never existed. Freddie passed that point in Q2.
That means that revoking the NWS retroactively, i.e. going by the terms of the original SPSPAs, would leave FnF with the amount of capital they have now: $600 million. Releasing the companies absolutely would have to be accompanied with a massive capital raise.