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Spree, the big M, wasn't trading, got closed out by stops. Not calling any low numbers or any numbers at all. And we were certainly over bought. And still very high. But forget all this over bought, over sold, buy low ,sell high , follow the trend, watch the vol/ money flow with charts stuff, just go with your $1000 or nothing plan, I think it fits you well.
zitboy, you bet, there has to be a reason however. In simple terms a reason for the buyers to buy at continued higher rates with out being exhausted out and same with the sellers on the down side. Right now we need a reason to buy to break the fall.
I'm all ears, whatca got!
Hey spree, whatever you say, YOU DA MAN!
Hey did you ever figure out what the big M on that cap you wear means!
I have a idea if you need a clue.
Today's chart. The double tops were already in play, rsi already falling as well as the money flow. Very curious on the money flow considering we were still at 23. Low vol to get it up there. Anyway it would have fallen as stated earlier anyway, but not like today, today was a train wreck.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=11002&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
Now where are those rose colored glasses, there they are, all right then. Well 70% of my stock sold off today. Blew right past the stops. Oh well that's the way it goes.
Still holding about 20k. Will decide what to do with those tonight. Tough day. Won't pick on management, as I haven't had anything for them for some time now.
For those that care about the tech side, we are coming from an extreme over bought, and today, from a tech prospective didn't change it a great deal. Yes we rolled over but were still on the very high side. That was a large run up we just had and it will be a long run down before were oversold. What will tomorrow bring, I would expect a little traders remorse short term, won't hold IMHO because of the lofty position we are already in. Perhaps a little buffering by the big boys, push a few shares in to pump up before taking a larger position out. If you don't know what I mean look at the min charts today, they telegraphed the plays.
I will say one thing about management, to me and me only I do feel I was misled, and played. I have to laugh, it's all good, all part of the game. Be a long while before I trust this one long-term however, but trading, oh yeah, I will trade the daylights out this one, good stock for that. Just ask the management. They're the masters of it. Damit anyway, they are good. I'll give them that
Good investing to all.
That's enough for me. eom
Mschere,
RE : ..What will Tomorrow bring based on your gloomy evaluation of their 10K? TIA
Wouldn't call it gloomy, just real. It is wht it is.
But let's see
What will today bring , let's add them up
Rip sells off, I think Brian did too on the 27th
We found out were being blocked out. Super, just super.
Need another license over and above to bring nok and samsung to the table. I figure once we get everybody else licensed Nok and samsung will have to joint, they'll run out of weasel clauses.
I'm thinking should skyrocket to a 100 or so today
Going down to the airport right now to get my Houston tickets.
BTW check the date and have a good one
A couple other little hits while I'm waiting here.
We expect that a portion (less than 10%) of amounts to be paid by Ericsson and Sony Ericsson will be used by us to satisfy an insurance reimbursement obligation.
ITC’s initial patent license agreement with Sharp was royalty-bearing, non-exclusive, and generally nontransferable. It covered Sharp’s sale of PDC and PHS products on a world-wide basis through March 19, 2003, at which time it expired
Blindfold on the battle field, you got to laugh. Oh well off to the movies
The Ericsson and Sony Ericsson license agreements apply to 2G GSM/TDMA and 2.5G GSM/GPRS/TDMA infrastructure and terminal unit products. Accordingly, one or more additional agreements with a designated leading manufacturer will be necessary, in the absence of agreement between ITC and Nokia, to fully define the full scope of Nokia’s obligations under its patent license agreement. The starting point for calculating Nokia’s royalty obligation will be January 1, 2002. In addition, Samsung elected to apply its MFL provision to ITC’s patent license agreement with Nokia as regards Samsung’s 2G and 2.5G TDMA-based products. Therefore, beginning in 2002 Samsung’s royalty rate should be determined in the same manner as Nokia’s royalty rate is determined. There is no assurance that either Nokia or Samsung will agree with ITC as to the applicability of the licensing terms between ITC and Ericsson and Sony Ericsson. The MFL terms include provisions for a period of review, negotiation, and dispute resolution with regard to the determination of royalty obligations of Nokia and Samsung
In addition to our royalty-bearing 3G licenses, some of our older license agreements include selected rights as to 3G products. For example, our license agreements with Nokia, Siemens and Qualcomm, Inc. (Qualcomm) include a license under certain of our patents to manufacture and sell products compliant with 3G standards, with some limitations. Patents for 3G standards are licensed to Nokia as follows:
The Nokia license arrangement was paid-up, generally, with respect to a number of 2G and a number of 3G covered products through the end of 2001 with a structure for determining the royalties thereafter. In addition, as part of our development project with Nokia (See, “Business Activities, Technology and Product Development”), Nokia is licensed on a perpetual, royalty-free basis under patents developed in the project. Generally, Nokia is also licensed on the same basis with respect to patents technically necessary to implement TDD technology; however, such license does not extend to non-TDD functionality.
OT The break 8 on the dow as the tech boys have been shouting this week doesn't bother me. What would bother me is, by the end to the week if were not back over. Would act like a vac.
AMS, RE: Has the time changed in the US.
Guess I'm not sure what you mean? Care to add a little flavor.
Futures are way down here as well. 100 plus points on the Dow. We have some nasty numbers that will be released tomorrow concerning the over all market not a good start for the week.
Looks like your profit taking has worked out . I'm showing pre trade this AM at 22.32 as somebody else has decided to take some as well
Happy trading to you
Heck Mick I can do you even better. Want a list of 10 companies making more than 2.00 in earnings and still under 20 a share. How about a large cap that makes billions , earnings of a 1.70. P/E under 17 and locked contracts to support those earnings well into the next decade. GE.
Don't count it before you have it. Make believe doesn't count.
Later
Mick, Gee is that all your looking for 1.00 a share.
RE: and that is well over a $1.00 a share after tax, what kind of P.E. are you using.
Let's find something close, I mean why wait. GLDN another wireless small cap. Same league as IDCC. Over a buck in earnings right now. Just came out with their 10k Friday. P/E 12 something. Money in the bank, tons of revenue, what more could you want.
Here I'll even include the link.
15 int holding, no insiders sales and only 50k short interest.
Knock yourself out.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?mode=stock&page=multi&symbol=gldn&symbol=&symbol=...
Mick, Gee I guess I could loosely be called a chartist, certainly have been a trader, never have shorted this one however. But since your addressing all 3 let's take a look.
Can I take a 20-point hit. Sure, don't intend to however. Fact is can't see how it could be done anyway. And please don't come back with that tired old " they'll stop the trading" BS. Everybody already knows about it. If your worried put some stops in.
Not worried about the revenues, sure would like to know the earnings however. Curious what's going to go to the bottom line.
Like to think I'm much more in tune with the numbers than you. Nice to see you're not talking billions and billions anymore. Or how about that 400mil you pumped for 1/2 a year on Samsung. Of course that's what the company told you. Didn't they, oops. Live and learn.
I agree, Nok still selling phones, could be important one day. Currently were not getting any money for it however. In time son, in time.
Re: "grand total in 2004 of revenues of $506 million now if you can tell me IDCC is a $22.70 stock then"
Then being your timeline wouldn't be released until Feb 2005. You win I can't tell you the stock will be 22.70 23 months from now.
PS heard that last ericy pump you did failed you, cost you a few bucks so I hear. Stay away from those options son, as a rule they'll cost you more than you know. Stick with the long shares. It matches your boasting far better anyway.
Mick have a good Sunday, I'm out.
Econeli, Re:I said once IDCC goes through its resistance ±25 then the charts will be useless until such a time in the future that a pattern has reestablished.
Your absolutely correct. They will have no value until the next level is set.
Charts aren't 24/7. Just a tool to be used as needed or as necessary. You can NOT invest solely based on charts. Nor in my opinion can you ignore them. Just a tool, one of many.
econeli, No worries I was trying to keep it simple. It's a simple game this investing. Just do what everybody else is doing, right before they do it.
Currently the vol has been falling as the chart shows. Running out of buyers not sellers at this point. No interest at this level. I should throw in the word currently.
While this stock has switched from a pure speculative play into a long-term play the charts as you say still have value. While I'm not a chartist in the pure sense of the word { I use all the tools,not just charts} I'll stand in as one for this post.
I agree there are a few other things to consider other than charts. Starting with, I suppose how much money we will be taking in. What's the net profit margin going to be? Or the return on equity? How much is the tax load? Idcc mentioned they are pursuing M&A. What percent of the incoming will that be? How much are they going to tuck away in the bank for the future? Is there going to be an increase in development, if so how much? Once these are known than we can start using P/E, P/S, P/b and P/CF to factor the fair price of this one But what if they do a repurchase of stock. In the end we will get our EPS. Take that times 15 or 20 and there we go.
While I will be figuring the above the charts will still have a value to me, it will tell me what the avg Joe on the street is doing, or about to do. What the big boys are doing. And at what vol he/they are doing it at and for how long.
But your right, money is the driver, let's see how much gets to the bottom line before we throw out the charts entirely.
Alley, re:support areas
High vol large percent rise. We'll have to clear off the daytraders taking the profits out and the MO players and see what we have left. Too soon for me to pick a number, were still at the high end of the indicators, no vision. The vol will be a big part, depending if it's high or low during the next 2 weeks. Also the markets in general. They pretty much have rolled over at this point.
And as you mentioned we have a war going on.
Somebody was wondering why were not at 100 yet.
Same reason were not at 75,50 or 25. Nobody willing to pay 25 a share yet. No interest at that level. If there was we would be there. We have to good through the people taking profits first, or if you prefer,consolidation.
Have a good trip.
This weeks chart. It appears we have our short term peak.
Rsi still at over bought level but starting to turn
Macd starting to turn.
Sto at over bought level but has crossed over and starting to turn
Accum has already turned
Cci peaked and turned
Adx has peaked and just crossed over
Cmf falling
Macd hist peaked and falling
On the weekly chart , perhaps a better defined look
Chiosc falling
Atr falling
Aroon falling
Included a 6 mo chart and this weeks chart. Still was a very nice run 60% plus. Not to bad
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10914&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10915&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
IDCC is holding up very well. Nice to see. The markets in general however are setting up for further fall. I'm a little concerned on how far of a fall that will be. I guess we'll find out over the next couple of weeks.
BTW that doesn't mean IDCC has to. Lot of new players in this one.
Anyway have a good day.
TC, perhaps I haven't read all the posts I need to.
RE: indictment of mgmnt
It doesn't , and it shouldn't in regards to selling.
I myself review the management of this company as questionable at best. And have said so for the last 2 or 3 years now. However the I/P that the engineers produce make this a hard one to walk away from. That’s the obvious value to the company. The failure as to why this isn't a solid mid/cap right now can be directed to the management. But then it's unlikely we would be sitting here talking right now if this was the case.
While I'm here, the insider sales, short action and for that matter the current price is all meaningless if you are long.
Think about it
However these things would matter a great deal if your not.
Have a good day
Ams see your getting little flack for taking some profits. Nothing wrong with that. I'm sure you're not alone, just more visible. Looks like the short action has bumped up. Expected with a higher price. Most don't understand the rotation and a shorts timeline. Not the same as a long.
Holding here myself. Going to try and use that long-term cap/gain qualifier for something proper.
thanksformusic, If I had to pick just one. Whew, depends what I'm looking for and how the stock has just reacted. I guess in general it's hard to leave RSI off the table. Followed by CMF.
Aroon, I glance at them but I use ADX far more, should say trust ADX far more.
Software, yea I guess everybody has tried some type. I haven't used any for some time, not flexible enough for my liking, and never fits the parms of how I trade. More to the point the ones I have seen are just general trading values without taking everything need to be understood into account. Others may like them but I guess I'm a little old school in my ways.
Jaykayjones " these shorters have the incentive to try " yes they do, the first wave of momentum has been turn back somewhat. The day traders and the MO players for the most part have taken their profits out. Why some have mentioned the MM for the fall and deep pockets IMHO there is a little more to it.
In any event these short spikes normally don't last for weeks at a time regardless. The NAS DOW and S&P are close to over bought. There is still a little room left but not a lot. We seem to follow the NAS fairly close if you blend in the beta of IDCC. My concern then would be what are the markets going to do. The late week rush concerning the war, the falling oil prices and other related events have past. I have a concern on how the next issues concerning the war will be viewed by the street. And I think that will be the driver of this next week.
I do think it will demand attention
Just an opinion
I go with 31.40 by June 4.
OT well gee spree, then you no reason to make anymore requests then.
Sounds good.
Done and done
Spree sorry you feel left out. And sorry such things give you headaches. Regarding what the chart states about the past is directly tied to the future. Also related is the price of a share vs all other companies share and their values and how those values are related to the market in general. Sorry you can't make this connection to weighted values or overbought vs oversold conditions. Another person with perhaps a sharper eye would see how the charts tracks the share price, you know the big looping rolls, high to low, low to high one right after another, never stopping for the full 12 year period. Well believe it or not some people have an interest in such things. Some even go to the extreme to sell at the highs and buy at the lows. It's called trading and it's called taking profits and I'm sure those things also have given you headaches, no doubt because you just see it as a problem.
But have no fear I will refrain from posting to you again on such issues.
Just for a little fun, remember fun, its back. Threw a 12 years scale monthly chart out. Since it is monthly it will only be useful if at all to the longs. No help with this charts for the traders or shorts. And again just for a little fun.
Had to cut the early 90's out of picture in order to post. Sorry.
Included the 4 major wedges for the last 10 years. Orange arrows mark the breakdowns and breakouts.
Channel range in blue for the last 5 years still very valid
Lower blue arrows confirm the base.
Upper previous res. IMO still in effect. Needs to be confirmed. If so a point of support.
A little over 18 is current support but hasn't been tested. 14.01 would be next lower support and has been.
Again monthly long-term scales being used. Not for trading.
Tan pitchfork has been in play for roughly 12 months. Note each black square is 4-mo time frame.
Green scale IS JUST FOR FUN at this point. It is not supported currently without a proper retest of the 18 mark.
If I was pressed for what is next, with next being 3 mo long, I would say we would have to reset at a lower level then what we have today. And once again I speak on a monthly scale. Long-term until there is a breakdown I would "guess " a new trading level between 40 and 60 with 12 months. While many will laugh and say anybody can predict that range it nevertheless appears the most likely supported area per longscale charting. It should also be mentioned that the weekly and especially the daily could exceed these range numbers by a very large margin. More to the point this is the range one would expect it to center back too.
Again just for fun and just for the longholders.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10749&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
Chart for the week. Well for the last 12 days anyway.
To the traders out there, going active again. Should be a fun spring.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10733&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
Bill, RE: and if goes thru $21.66, then fairly clear sailing to the next "resistence" level. (I don't know what that level is.)
Regarding res' points only for the next level - I have 21.70 followed by 30.50 on the major's using the long scale. After 30 there is no res values that apply. They will be made as we go so to speak. I would expect large range shifts over 30 till the levels get built.
I don't know where you're going with this. The 10-year trial was for US infringement. The figure that I had in my notes would have made that infringement for US sales 35mil. Which I posted many times last year. Seems we won out right. Euro sales were never on the table. NEVER. Again the trial was for US sales.
However if you wish, we can go the other way. We go to trial for the US sales Maybe we win. Maybe we don't. 2 years of appeals later maybe it holds up. Then we can start to think about Euro sales Perhaps a few more years there. Maybe we win. Maybe we don't.
2 maybe's and 4 or 5 years vs a clean win now and right in the mix for 3 G.
You got to be kidding. We could have lost everything. This assures they won't. SMART PLAY no matter which direction you come from.
After the first read the only word that comes to mind is "sweet'. Sure we gave up the Euro sales but they wouldn't have been in the cards till after the trial for US based sales was finished. Appeal process would have been a time consumer for the US trial and there was no guarantee. My guess is IDCC management wants to move now.
The investment has now changed and some stability has been introduced. I have no doubt we will get paid on the Nokia and Samsung MFL's. Could there be arbitration, maybe, but Howard was clear on the issue, and that part, no doubt would have been factored before the Ericy agreement. I'm comfortable that we will get paid.
Acquisition or perhaps licensing other patents will be the next things to debate on these boards. IDCC wishes to grow and they will be using the extra money they get as a tool for that growth. This will reduce the earnings and cause some to question the actions.
Ahh, but it doesn't matter. It's all good. And longterm this should be a very good investment to have on the books.
Ken, Well I haven't read everything yet, but it seems we just got past the line of scrimmage and finally, FINALLY we can do a little open field running. Not worried about the numbers, they will be replaced with other numbers that will be far more impressive.
I'm just happier than , well happy that were past this company milestone
Now that we are done with all , well still have JPO, almost all of the arbitration, mediation and trial fears we can treat this as most of are other investments.
Much to study but this has now gotten fun again.
Haven't studied anything yet, the 34 mil was very close to the 35mil figures that I was using for US based sales. Apparently Euro sales due will never be fully captured. And yes I know it's all paid up with this contract. They never went after Euro sales however. No matter it is what it is. And now I can treat this as clean investment.
Again, this is going to be fun
Congrats to all the longs who waited it out.
Data, thanks once again. Very useful to have on hand.
OT -- yea it can be done. Interesting parms your working with. Would seem clear a pull out after the 12/31 and the start of the buy back after the 2/10.
Anyway good luck with your trading.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10514&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10515&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10516&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
Ken , would love a wedge shot that would push this anywhere over 14.60 today
Ken , works very well for me. Keeps me out of trouble. It's not the 3 foot putt that would trouble me. No it's making sure I'm teeing off on the right hole and facing the right direction and it's 9 am , not 9 pm. That's what I use it for.
Well we have a start of a rally anyway. Some stocks look a lot better than others. Nas and the Sand P both gapped with follow through. Vol decent. And the starting point is good.
Notice many of the major chartists are tripping over one another explaining how this all tied into their master plan.LOL These are the same ones I was talking about the weekend that were predicting doom and gloom and no faith in the market.
Like I said then, I'm going in the other direction. Still it's only a start. But it's a good one. E wave charts need to be looked after tomorrow to see if it's real.
Looking at IDCC, not so bad, still in the wedge at the 50 mark on the fib, back to res at 14, broken the 50 mark on the rsi , this too in the wedge, above the 50 day avg. , flat lined triple kiss at 0.03 on the macd, broke the 20 on the sto, accum kissed off the 20 day ma, bounce on the cci and cross over on the adx. Money flow got cut off on the chart but has been rising since Feb 18. Included a chart for support.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=10472&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
One day is not a trend but she has a lot of room to roam if she wants. Same with the Nas and the S and P.
Let 's see how this shakes out and take a hard look this weekend. To soon to get excited just yet.
Again should be an interesting next several days.
Well what do we have with the markets. Got the buy signal, but that doesn't mean buy, still have the trap to get past. Vix spike but the Trin overrules the Vix and is claiming a bottom. The BP's show we can still drop a little but not much. However they have not turn as of yesterday.
It seems they are running out of fear for the fuel.
IDCC so far has held up better than anyone could have hoped.
Should be an interesting, the next several days
Have a good day