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I agree ... value is solid .. i hope the price stays in the 13-15 range for the next couple weeks so i can pick up more shares before a major move.
looks like the technical resistance was too strong ... the stock has been running since $9 ... time for a breather ... looking forward to the next leg up.
any guesstimates about short-term and medium term upside based on this news ... im expecting a move (at least) into the low-twenties within 3 months ... would love to hear thoughts on this ...
or even worse then death -- a terrible life!
Why 2+ times? it should be at least 3-4x for *fair* valuation
52-week highs for Repros are fast approaching, but i have changed my expectations slightly.
I expect us to see 16$-18$ on release of the upcoming news items (I project the news to be released in the next two weeks). We will then see a slow and steady climb into the mid 20's as the market recognizes that a bid for Androxal by big pharma will be coming in the early fall of 07. Once the androxal takeover is solidifed we will likely see the stock price climb into the high 30's. Thereafter we will see the company bought out for a 50$-75$ -- a big pharma will takeout the the remaining Proellex pipleline.
I Highly Recommend Board Members Purchase Additional Repros Shares soon (if possible). This breakout is a prelude to a major move on the near-term report catalyst.
I expect to see RPRX setting a new 52-week high in the next couple of days. Off to the races soon.
One important point to keep in mind - Morgan Stanley acquired FrontPoint in Q4 of 2006. The RPRX exit may have been a 'casualty' of some overall portfolio restructuring that took place.
Too many variables involved to effectively answer this question ...
But this certainly does explain the drop from 14 --> 9.
Repros
the stars are already aligning Nerf -- just look at what Solvay did today by dumping their collobration agreement for the endometriosis drug with AEZ - if big pharma waits for Androxal and Proellex to become blockbusters, they will be paying far more than 1.2 billion - Androgel alone brings in 450+ million a year to Solvay. Don't be too sure that JP won't budge on the 1 billion price point. You should keep in mind that JP said a deal of some sort (for Androxal) will happen within 12 months, thats why they likely won't need to raise any more cash.
why does it take a year? you keep saying that... the market is forward looking ..
are you kidding me .. do you think 100$ is a lot of money to these guys? they spend more on breakfast.
simply painting the tape to keep things 'interesting'
Nerf, you are assuming that no one would be willing to pay a premium to get hold of the pipeline early.
My guess is that the company is already in negotiations with big pharma.
i think we could see deals happen anytime. i wouldn't be surprised to hear about a deal this month.
RPRX approaching all time highs -- i bet we get there before the CC
Zipjet, put yourself in the shoes of Solvay Pharma. Do you expect them to just sit back and let Androxal eat into their Androgel sales, or do you think it would be wise for them to consider biting the bullet and spending some money (half of their yearly revenue stream from Androgel) to buyout a threatening pipeline.
The only real question is whether JP would be willing to let the Androxal pipeline go for a fraction of its potential long-term worth -- my bet is that he would let it go as long as Solvay doesn't make a ridiculously low offer (<$200 million). While Proellex is definitly getting more attention from investors (perhaps rightly so), Androxal is quite valuable.
JP has made a number of statements (in private and in public) about the sale of the company or its pipeline.
One consistent theme has been that a sale of Androxal will take place within 12-18 months. Irrespective of the sale strategy (i.e. wait for an FDA response or close a deal before an FDA response), one thing is for sure, Mr. market has has SUBSTANTIALLY undervalued Repros TODAY- the market has failed to realize how much value is locked up in the pipelines today, irrespective of an FDA decision
I expect we will see a violent price correction to the upside in the coming weeks/months as reality starts to slap the market on the head
I believe there is a very high chance that Solvay Pharmaceuticals will step in and buy the Androxal before RPRX can get a response from the FDA. The threat to the Androgel pipeline from Androxal seems all too real.
Considering that Androgel brings in 450+ million a year in revenue, I would not be suprised to see Solvay bid 300+ million for Worldwide Androxal rights.
i was considering buying some calls as well - i think the odds are in your favor to be 'handsomely' rewarded.
i'm sorry to hear about your luck, but you really should trust the science and look at the upcoming timeline/deliverables .
The fact that the offering was done at 13.75 should also be some indication about what the IB's think. I bet you could make back your 10+10 and then some if you buy in soon.
best of luck
were you long or short on RPRX? did you buy into the top, if so, i wouldn't worry too much, i expect to see all time highs shortly.
i agree with Zipjet -- I think US approval is a long shot, UNLESS new mgmt. @ the FDA is willing to to be more open minded.
I think Mr. Market also agrees with Zipjet -- his explanation of the situation is one reason why the company is being valued at a measly 150 million.
I hope we can get US approval but am conservatively discounting it. I expect a decent return on investment with or without FDA approval.
RPRX After hours
looks great up almost 7% ... can't wait to wake up one morning and see RPRX up 150%
may want to keep an eye on them - they will hit their 52 week high in short order.
LEVEL 2 action today was very positive. EDGX sitting just off the bid waiting to grab 50k shares but only managed to pick up about 9k. I also saw two or three other huge buy orders in the ~12$ range. i think the stock will continue to climb into the conference call and hit ATH's soon.
thanks for the thorough update!!!
rfj - if you are out there, would also love to get an update from you regarding RPRX - are you continuing to accumulate? It looks like the stock may be turning here, heading towards new ATH's.
Dew - I am actually heavily invested in RPRX -
The reason I am asking you personally is because I have shadowed your "insight" on several forums - I have a great deal of respect for your "DewDiligence" - are you familiar with SQNM or NOVC? Would love to hear insights on those if you have any to share.
DewDiligence - what are your thoughts on RPRX. It looks like she is setting up for a big run to new all time highs. Care to chime in on your short-term and long-term thoughts on the company. Do you expect a sale of Androxal sooner rather than later. The CEO said to expect a sale within a year, but i'm betting a sale or partnership will take place much sooner.
what are your estimates for the worst case "cash infusion" for Androxal?
Chris,
I hope your right, but I am not betting on the FDA dropping the requirements. (even though there is a good chance that they very well may) Even if we discount FDA approval of Androxal, i believe the worldwide rights to the drug would fetch ~$50m.
I agree - Repros is substantially undervalued. The Proellex pipeline alone will drive this stock significantly higher in the coming months. I will continue to accumulate until the market wakes up.