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No major news. They started their p1 trials before us. They're a neoantigen play, which is why people have used their IPO as a comparison in complaining that our mk cap is way too low. I honestly don't know if their approach is any better/worse than ours. Just interesting to see how WS is pricing this new way of combatting cancer.
NTGN just got spanked today, and they're further along than us. Oh boy - we're in for a ride.
Isn't that exactly what DOC was doing with Axal/Cerv? He tried to keep moving axal forward and waited way too long to make any sort of a meaningful deal. I hope that's not what they're trying to do with HOT.
Maybe I misunderstood your post...
Ditto. Add to that the market cap will now reflect only 50% of the value on a per share basis compared to prior the dilutions. Unless you've kept adding, of course.
1 billion market cap is now roughly 10$. Unreal this money pit. This is the 3rd reset?
Why not one single activist investor in this thing to remove these guys?
I'm wondering, without a meaningful HOT deal, how will this not continue to melt until NEO data? I personally don't think they can make it to NEO data without additional funding, but tough to say. When NEO data drops, all bets are off, good or bad.
A HOT deal without reasonable money will also not do much, IMO. While a deal where costs are unloaded is a positive, expenses will only continue with the development of the additional 3-4 constructs they have planned to accelerate into clinical. I still wonder if they try and piecemeal HOT, or just sell the whole thing ala NEO at this point. If they're waiting for NEO data before licensing HOT, then why not just shelve the development and get there first?
Bottom line, I have no idea where the bottom is for this thing. They refuse to show any hand when it comes to HOT. The "in talks" is the same as in "late stage" talks with AXAL, we've seen what that has meant for investors.
Not if the shares were used to cover. Also, I'm sure plenty of investors bought in for the long term and aren't selling immediately. At this point though, no one knows for sure, including who bought in. I know ADXS didn't' make any mention about high quality funds buying this time (they did for the prior $2 offering). But the theory does make sense for why some might have dumped their shares immediately, and at a price that some might call a "loss".
I'm just ready for this whole nightmare to end.
Because why would they hold onto the dog stock and lose more? They already have all the upside potential locked in with the warrants.
The units were $1.20 each. The warrants do have value and that was what Dew calculated (roughly) when he priced them at $.34 a pop. Therefore, they can dump the losing shares and free up their capital while retaining the warrants to cover them in case this thing runs, no need to keep the shares for upside as well.
Note: They also probably made money shorting this into the offering and used some of those unit shares to cover.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/topstocks/mercks-keytruda-combo-gets-nod-for-lung-cancer-in-europe/ar-BBNbcb3
Keytruda approved in Europe for first-line combination treatment for NSCLC.
Now let's get that NSCLC HOT indication into clinical!
He, as well as Tony, waited until the very last second to raise funds in order to avoid any going concern problems. These raises were under the worst conditions possible. What does that say about their judgment?
What do we see first; A cash deal, or a new share authorization request?
I would think that if Ken sees something positive that would shoot this stock price up, outside of a monetary deal, that he would want available shares to raise funds with. I suppose the 14 million warrants is one thing, but that is still only 1.50 a share. What a situation...
Alex, it's down 90+ percent from just over a year ago. What rational person that actually CARES about his investment/money wouldn't be upset. Everyone is down so far that they're not selling either, and are just going to see this through, rain or shine. It seems pretty rational to me.
While obviously pessimistic, I have no doubt he's willing to reset everything for all existing shareholders and keep his job for awhile. That seems naturally logical for him and his family and job. R/S and setup a new share program for the executives there and gamble as long as possible on this cure for cancer routine. IDK. ROSG was a disaster, I'm not going to put anything past him at this point.
IDK much, but I think this whole thing is summed up pretty nicely on the clinical pipeline slide of their corporate deck. It literally shows every single trial but NEO being funded by ADXS. I guess I needed that picture to adequately grasp the stupidity of this company and it's reckless execution.
Hire the I-Bank. They shouldn't be in charge of public money anymore...
The truth is, the damage has been done. What scares me is if they can't close anything in the next 3-6 months as they'll need to raise again. Where the share price floats from here is irrelevant due to no need for money. It's just a pain to watch. ADXS judgment on just about everything has been terrible. A 10 million share offering a year ago would have netted 70 million +, almost double what the 40 million shares has gotten us recently. Pathetic
It's those damn radioactive Algo's. A new breed of material that surfaced after Tony took the reigns and said he was going to build shareholder wealth.
No one trusts this company anymore. The only adulation we can give them is they've cut costs. Obviously way too late to have stopped this precipitous downfall. I'm actually wondering if we do hit $.50 now. I see no reason for anyone to buy into this currently. It's an utter disaster. No CC either, they have nothing to say...
LOL - exactly. Selling share/warrant units at that price is nothing more than desperation. I'm sure the terms weren't set by ADXS, but rather the buyers who were in complete control. This thing just keeps melting..
Thanks for sharing. Interesting poster. Obviously intelligent. He will be missed.
That's a nice theory, but I can't believe this is actually about money. They must be hunkered down after that abysmal raise. To add no color or context to the current situation, outside of the filings, seems weak at best. We have heard from Ken only once since he's taken the CEO position.
I guess for me, Advaxis choosing not to have a CC at this juncture reflects poorly on them. Then again, what do I know? I'm still invested in this thing.
You're correct. I'm distinguishing those two to mean two vastly different things, hence the negativity. I appreciate your view that maybe I'm just being too pedantic with the wording and things could be more optimistic than the wording implies.
The thing that bothers me about AXAL is that Ken is very open with the fact that we're in talks for HOT. It's plastered right on the slide deck. We have absolutely nothing from him around AXAL. I would think that he'd have hinted at something by now if they were having at least meaningful discussions regarding it, but nada. I'm starting to think there might not be much hope for it. Hope to be proven wrong tomorrow.
Agree with the positive cost cutting measures Ken has implemented. Long time coming.
And they offered the entire shelf that day, they wanted every dollar they could get...
Taking even a mediocre deal at this point is better than selling 50% of the company for chump change. I dont get any of this anymore.
Billion dollar deals with little to no data and these guys can't secure a thing, even with decent/good data. Something is wrong here and I don't know what it is...
They already made their money if they shorted at the top and bought these UNITS with the proceeds. If they bank $.34 or more in profit between the top and bottom then they technically paid for the warrants too and dumped their shares and/or used them to cover. Free warrants that expire in 6 years, why do they need to run them up any time soon?
I believe the offering is basically done, or is expected to be closed by tomorrow. They're paying roughly $.86 per share, so that's that. Thanks though, BMS.
Copy. So the basis for this thesis is "they" belive they can trade this down to a number around there (the real price of the offering given the free warrants) and at that point they know to cover. Interesting. Those warrants don't expire for 6 years and are basically free, or less than free, if they're able to maximize the short attack. Lovely move and well played ADXS. Did Sara B advise on this?
Well said.
I also need to remind myself that a lot is still riding on the AXAL/Cervical. Anything out of Ken that is even remotely upbeat could be a positive. We'll know tomorrow. I can't believe how badly this has gone. Live and learn.
Forgive the ignorance, but how does that price point matter in maximizing the value for warrant holders? That target price was derived from taking the per unit price (1.20) and reducing it by .85 of the warrant price using the Black-Scholes model. The only way they gain on the warrants, to me, is if it goes above 1.50 and they can cash them in as the warrants are not tradeable. Of course they have a 6 year life as well..
Down nearly 40% from the opening price Thursday... How low is this thing going to go? Talk about a nightmare. No one but some retail here seem to support this company. Is HOT real?
I'm waiting for them to say they're getting into blockchain technology somehow and the LM platform fits in nicely with that move.
I agree with you in that I can't believe this cc is going to be about much of anything. The slide deck was just updated as well with basically nothing new... I agree that AXAL may be a "still in talks" mention as well.
The only question I have now is how much further is this thing going to melt before BK talks heat up...still a ways to go but it doesn't look good.
I bet there's a firm commitment from the underwriters and they're taking the risk in selling the units.
Going forward Ken has plenty of toys left in that shelf registration.. just no more common shares as he dumped all 30 million that were recently authorized at this level.. now what does that tell you?
So do we see the only short term recovery for this stock being tied to sheer luck and manipulation?
$50mm market cap. 50% of the company sold this year. No HOT partner (yet), but still developing it. NEO data sounds like it'll need another 6 months before anything meaningful. In fact, we currently don't even have the cash to make it to NEO data. PSA results we'll make, but who knows. Ughhh, this just looks ABYSMAL.
I guess execution is out the door for me. I'll take sheer greed and manipulation at this point.
I agree with that. To make the bonus tied to any form of fund raising is what's unfortunate to me, imo. They need cash like they've needed it for the last year plus, dilution at 2 and now sub a buck. Amazing foresight by the comp.
What it does, Hov, is mitigate his downside while fleecing shareholders. I find it to be a shady provision and it never should have been placed there. He had an incentive to get the cash and get it early and if you think he can't wait out his shares to recover, while making 500k a year, then idk what to say. I have never seen a clause like that before and makes me wonder even more about this company, imo.
We've discussed this before. It was a private sale at a premium to their stock price and was strategic in nature. Not a 30 million share/warrant open sale at the lowest price in ADXS history. I think context matters.
Why would the shares not just go to flippers/hedgies like the last time? What has changed from that being the logical conclusion to this sale? 30 million shares dumped. It's sick.
Yes, I was here for the proxy vote and ended up voting NO on the additional share authorization, knowing all the while it was going to pass and my vote was nothing more than a symbolic gesture. I was protesting the utter lack of even the most basic fiscal discipline in the company. I have seen it far too many times, where a new company gets a taste of cash and then decide they're invincible and try and build the next Taj Mahal with it. It's reckless and I'm of the opposite mind set than many here, I actually think the market worked the way it was supposed to. It cut off the insanity and limited the companies access to additional capital until they could show a tenable game plan. This was done AFTER they had already supplied the company with 100's of millions of dollars (which no one ever mentions when discussing how the market is to blame for all this). The whole Tony debacle only exacerbated it, and was a large reason for why the short attack was so successful and lasted for so long. Now I'm just praying they cut more and we wait until NEO data shows up positive, but my hopes for this company have never been met.
They have zero shares to offer after this offering that just barely got Ken to make his 150k bonus. I can't think of when I've been more upset over a bonus in my life. I get it, it's nothing huge, but it's beyond ridiculous. Shameful.