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Nothing happens till the SPSA agreement between Treasury and FHFA -- THAT is going to determine to a very, very large degree what SP is going forward since it will (i) what happens to NWS (unless SCOTUS removes it) (ii) outlines what happens to senior prefered (ie whether retied and by how much), (iii) what happens to warrants and more
That agreement looks like it happens AFTER the election, since the Trump administration is laser-like focussed on re-election and nothing, nothing!, that might hinder that is allowed
From your lips to God's ears, I just am pessimistic that none of those things moves the SP since there is now an overhang of worry about details of SPSA amendment and offerings...
What is needed is the new SPSA agreement, the consent decree and some sketch of the upcoming capital plans/offerings for each of FNMA and FMCC to be able to value shares -- so no big moves till then and hence the Fall...
...unless SCOTUS order a retroactive remedy negating the NWS, then we would see some real SP appreciation
Anyway, thanks for your thought, I guess I have gotten quite skeptical on this story
Navy, a lot of the biggest fund companies, and others, cannot hold securities priced under $5, so to get those guys into the stock (and the offering) a reverse split makes sense... just my 2 cents
Well, Nomura and quite a few others estimate common SP at $5 and have suggested the offering is at $5 -- but how can that work? Lots of firms cannot buy securities trading below $5...
So a reverse split looks plausible, and practical, to make offering go too
But I really don't care lol
All correct, but satisfy NYSE regs the reverse split needs to be done - otherwise how is SP over $5?
SP needs to be over $5 to uplift, so a reverse split is very likely - say 20-1 to get to $40 a share
But your stock will be worth the same cash value
Lol, I just quickly checked my positions page for FNMAO which gives an estimate of position value, hence my quick 10% comment. I don’t have much time - I am busy - so did this on the fly...
...and you guys have a Mueller inquiry going? Ok :)
Donot, I don;t think common has unlimited potential, since it too is capped by the logic of what is now a utility business.
It is also capped by the details, ie the numbers, of the BIG BANG for moving FnF to a consent decree and then the new offering.
I don't think there is limitless fat on the common bone, in fact I think a mouse might starve...
I think Ruud Financial Advice has more of ring to it...
Donot, they don't want to hear, but you tried...
Common is just too risky for me given my take on the possible dilution
But others can, and do, have differing views
Fingers crossed SCOTUS does the right thing -- at least we (hopefully!) get a judgement in the next 4 weeks
I don't own FNMAS, FNMAO up 10%+ -- sorry to spoil your day
Got to go for a run and then epoxy a window frame...
Expect the FNMA "rally" to be done when I am done
Yup, bounced off $2.20, kinda sad "rip"...
Yup, I agree. And the Federal courts are a marathon -- but the absolute, final, last finish line is SCOTUS... and we are now in sight of the end
Actually, very positive -- even if Seila law does not come through for us we then have Judge Atlas ruling as directed by Collins En Banc that would also be pro-shareholder... And Treasury cannot appeal that case IF it wants to get everything done in the Fall - but they could just give the plaintiffs what they want administratively: (a) NWS shut down and (b) overpayment beyond 10% dividend returned either through SPS retirement plus $30 billion DTA/credit towards Treasury backstop payment or cash...
So this summer/fall should see a POSITIVE resolution of the cases, finally, though fingers crossed for the SCOTUS retroactive remedy ruing
I have no wish to visit the moon, 100% gain from here and I would seriously think about selling it all... still a lot of risk here
All about SCOTUS this summer, THAT has the potential to move us significantly...
Fingers crossed for conservative justices to stick to their principles and SCOTUS precedents of punishing unconstitutional agencies that violate their mandates to deter agency over-rech in the future -- retro-active remedies are the only way to shut down this increasing, ongoing problem of agency over-reach
Cos you are looking at yesterday's chart? lol
All green today already, some up 10%... but they rise more slowly so expect to see the full repricing later
TBH I m really struck by the weakness of these pops -- really not the same number of buyers, and in the same amounts, as we have seen on previous rallies in earlier periods
The fact that, as Calabria said, common holders will be "heavily diluted" seems to be getting better appreciated -- junior conversion, senior conversion and then new offering is going to be a Tsunami of dilution
Reverse split over the summer before any uplist might mask the effects, but anyone with sense can see...
Will it even get to $2.50?
I am having my coffee right now, so should be perked up soon...
Yank, are you invested in FnF yet? You hold pref, right?
THREE TRAINS RALLY KILLER ALERT!!!
Just had another on US Forest Service Case (also known as the Appalachian Trail case)...
Yup, opinions still coming, another just dropped...
The dumbasses included lots of uncompressed files in the first opinion, so it crashed everything lol
You cannot hire an IT person at SCOTUS? Really?
Navy, they had technical problems, may be more opinions yet today...
Apparently, they are releasing opinions every ten minutes, so might get more today - thanks.
Job, many thanks, I will bookmark it
I agree we run higher eventually, so I plan on buying back in to those names that are undervalued on fundamentals - hence my WFC holding which is crazy cheap on so many dimensions
But my stocks hit my targets, so I sold -- DCP hit $13, PK hit $12, MAC hit $12... so I took my cash
Hoping to buy back in gradually when prices get back in the value range -- though I will trade the malls for the third or fourth time (M, SKT are backs to the $6's already lol, sure they will head back to $10 at some point)
What time do SCOTUS judgements post? Can someone remind me, I am afraid I will be looking each Monday and Thursday from now on, lol
Thanks in advance, go longs
I was talking about the wider markets, just so I am clear.
I agree with you about the dynamic.
Frankly, I think these retail investors are going to get skinned. The big guys just need to use a headline to induce a dip and then the algo's go crazy and the retail panic sells -- and down we go 10-20% on the focus stocks.
Rinse and repeat a few times till now one left with any buying enthusiasm and then the institutions buy...
Hope I am (somewhat) wrong, but I am all cash except WFC (bought nearer lows) and FnF
Retail investors are buying and battling back this AM, it could be really ugly -- I don't think they hold once the proper selling starts under them and then everything snowballs down like it did up...
But will they hold? And will the big money sell them down?
Going to be an interesting few weeks...
Very good point - HERA put in the conservator but NO court has found HERA itself to be unconstitutional
Just get rid of NWS if SCOTUS go big with retroactive remedy
Won’t stop $2, markets having big red day again...
Dead right tho it falls on deaf ears...
A positive SCOTUS ruling could force Treasury to put their hand in their pocket, we will see in the next month...
Yup, red day tomorrow - question is how far correction goes? I raised cash so I am hoping for good prices eventually
Lol, no one needs to do that...
+1 save the booms for real news
Louie, let's talk again on Dec 1st 2020 -- then we see whose hopes were born out and whose dashed on the rocks...
No idea what you are talking about... next SPSA amendment will allow RnR and all longs will benefit..
Golf, we agree on something -- SCOTUS ruling that CPFB is unconstitutional and sanctioning rectro-active relief will be one to rocket-ship the SP and fast forward the RnR process
However, I still think it will come down to November, since they have to wait on the final captial rule (the plaintiffs will not be stupid enough to accept a deal until they understand what it is), then the SPSA amendment and any required legal settlement (since Treasury/FHFA can simply give the plaintiffs their requested relief in "Big Bang")
So, if one ends up holding these, then I think you are going to be sweating through November
My hope is that SCOTUS goes big, then I can sell half in July, cover my cost basis and let a portion of the position ride without stress -- my fantasy but nothing is ever easy here lol