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just saw this nice article on cnbc about the state of the biotech industry:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/26/big-pharmas-scramble-to-invest-in-start-ups-to-fuel-innovation.html
It looks to me the demand for the next technology is red hot. Big pharmas are taking the risk even though a small percentage payoff.
I think there was a similar “lawsuit” a couple years ago. Cytodyn’s response in that case was that it is meaningless and the let their lawyers handle it and it went away. I guess there are occasionally law firms looking to attract shareholders that might not like the board of some publicly traded company for what ever reason. Ambulance chasers. I don’t know if that is true in this case but it sure looks like it. They are clearly asking for shareholders to come forward. O doubt there is anything to it.
I don't think being in pharmacutical sales really is going to convince many here that you are an expert in the science of how drugs work. Really not sure what the point of your post is, are you inferring that nothing will ever work, it's all a sham?
Yup, I agree. I really do feel that the uplist will do more than we realize. the greater liquidity will be a huge asset for fund raising and will create a much broader # of investors with fresh positive attitudes about the potential here. My fatigue is real but i'm not selling!
That makes sense, however I have to wonder where we would be now if they had done the R/S and uplisted prior to the PE data from the combo trial. I feel like mgmt thought there would be a much better response to the SP than what happened. I don't like the trial and error method of getting some real market cap value into this company so funds can be raised at vastly better conditions. I do not want to be an armchair quarterback or be captain obvious with hindsight opinion but it looks like pr's and time has been wasted. I and many others have called the company and explained what is going on with why the SP is not moving and it has more to do with warrant holders selling to lower risk. The OTC is a problem because such a large percentage of shares are owned by warrant holders and a broader audience of investors don't have access to this stock to change that. Mgmt has had the ability to R/S and uplist for the better part of a year, mgmt has been telling us that they want the SP to rise organically. In my mind it is obvious that they don't have the understanding that the SP will never rise organically because so many shares are owned by warrant holders. Keep in mind, I'm not bashing warrant holders - they are smart and protecting their investment. I am also not criticizing mgmt for raising funds under these conditions because they could not get fund any other way so quickly. It is just the fact that they tell us they want an organic rise while raising funds in a way that prevents an organic rise, does mgmt really know what they are doing?
Combo data was what was supposed to push this SP dramatically and it did not, so now it's the mono data? I am really getting tired of the radio silence. mgmt needs to address the issue because we are in the window of a deal or buyout now, a couple months from now the window is much smaller. BP buys companies in p2 and p3, if we can't get a deal done are we going to be told that we are on the path to being a revenue generating business all on our own? Mgmt at this point has no excuses, pro140 is a multi billion product and the company is $100million, the gap is too much considering where they are at in development. Mgmt need to understand that they are a publicly traded company and not some garage operation. I am weary of this carrot being held in front of us.
Back in december the CROI presentation slides showed that they have greater than 150 patients enrolled in the mono trial. given that the trial was enrolling for 7-8 months at that point and that was 5 months ago, I would think they very close if not already fully enrolled. As in the past, for this large trial I would assume they are enrolling extra patients to make sure hey have the best patients for any data readouts. Mgmt also in past CC's stated that the enrollment criteria is much easier and that getting patients was not nearly as difficult as the combo trial.
I think it is great when warrant holders convert, it is a strong sign of support and is what should happen. It is unfortunate that you warrant holders were likely told that the SP would likely be at a much higher price level by now and the discount should not have been needed. It was my guess that many warrants are held by the board and mgmt and since they came up with the discount idea that they would drive the conversion. If they are not converting in great numbers then why should they expect others to do so.
It would be nice if there was significant increases in share value rather than significant amounts of shares given to mgmt. however it could be mgmt is paying themselves in shares rather than cash? Either way it is not worth anything if the SP does not increase in the future.
The 8k just posted states that about 3 million warrants were exercised at the $.50 reduced price, raising $1.5 million. By my rough math there are 43 million warrants issued, so now there are 40 million left. I think this is kind of pathetic of the warrant holders to not put skin in the game. We all know they have been dumping stock whenever it gets to $.70-.75 range and holding the warrants relatively risk free. As long as we are on the OTC this will be the rule and the R/S and uplist in my mind is a necessity. I don't care what opinion anyone has about the risks of a R/S, the OTC is a prison for this stock.
I have to double check often, sometimes the decimal point isn't where i thought it was! either way, the worst case scenario for market value is so far beyond the current market cap even when the dilution added in that it is difficult to think that this won't have tremendous upside. I look forward to when more than just us sees it also!
Not really, for the dozen or so combo drugs the smallest revenue is $700mil/yr and the largest is $3.3bil/yr revenue. For Cytodyn to claim that pro140 can generate $1.2bil/yr as another combo is very realistic. As a mono drug It is as simple as roughly adding 2-3 existing drugs revenue together, so $3.8bil is also realistic. Keep in mind the total revenue for existing HIV drugs now is $15 billion. If pro140 is only for CCR5 patients and that is 70% of the US population, that is $10.5 billion.
Looks like I need to brush up on my reading abilities! Oh well, the whole post was really just a theory that I don’t thing will materialize, I’m referring to the idea that the r/s is a war to get warrants to convert.
This is and interesting idea, so far the SP has had a problem getting above $.75 due to warrant holders selling shares to hold warrants with less or no risk (this is my guess). If this notice (which was directed to warrant holders) was a heads up that the $.50 strike will not be extended again and they better act on it if they want to now. It could be the company is really trying to get as many warrants exercised before the next PR's. If the warrants get exercised there would be far less of a ceiling on the SP. mgmt was willing to let the PE PR released to see how the SP would react, given that it did not move much proves the problem is either the desire of warrant holders to unload shares or there is not enough new investors able or willing to jump into an OTC stock.
I think this is not what mgmt is doing but it is interesting. I have not seen mgmt take any actions purely to drive the SP, they only focus on pushing the trials forward and raise cash as they need it. They did not mention the R/S is in anticipation of an uplisting but i would not think they would tell the world anything more than what they have to.
Mgmt it seems has ramped up the fund raising, possibly because the terms are better now that PE is out and they were holding back before to avoid the less ideal raises of the past. Either way, the money is being spent on one thing for sure - Mono trial. The other cost could be the legal/accounting/application costs for uplisting, but it could be this just a plan than might be held off on for awhile? For me the timing and sequence of events will be very interesting. Could be they are slowly trying to get to the partnership/BO tipping point? Are they making it look like the pro 140 train is going to get very expensive to buy in the near future which gets BP to step in? The best way to get the highest price is to not look like your selling.
This concerns me also, the market uptrend is broken at this point. The silver lining is that BO deals will favor safer sure things, like drugs that are in p3 trails and not in early investigative stage. Pro 140 is compelling because of this, it sure would be nice if they were at this point a year ago however!
These are really good examples of what might be the future for Cytodyn. The best I can find is that Receptos was a $73million market cap at it’s ipo in 2013. Stemcentrix was a $300 million market cap before it’s buyout. The big difference is that pro 140 is much further along in trials and actually works!
I hope you realize everyone here knows far more about every aspect of this company and product than you, the debt structure is not news. If you feel this is such a stop sign then don't invest and move on. Why would anyone start posting only negatively about a stock they are not invested in? why waste everyone's time?
The stock was issued at $.75, it reached a high of $4.40 in the first year and fell apart, sitting at $.70 forever. The huge difference was the volume was nothing, an order of 1000 shares could move it a nickel. It might seem terrible that we are at essentially the same price but considering the amount of funds raised to get pro 140 to this point it is actually not to bad. What is terrible is that it has taken this long, so much time was wasted with no plan.
I can answer that, as a decade + investor I can tell everyone here that the current mgmt team had nothing to do with how the company was set up originally. I think much of the structural changes over the past couple years have been to better set up the company for their current position with the trials. Allen Allen (same first and last name) was the original owner of the cytolyn drug that was to be put through trials and create a huge appreciation in sp in a short time originally. That did not happen as planned and years swept by and it sat on the pink sheets without any hope until Nader got involved. I think you are right that it would have made much more sense to stay private instead of being on the otc. The first 6-7 years of this company were a waste. Allen was a good guy and very smart but managing a publicly traded company was beyond his skills. The next ceo Van Ness was horrible. Nader might be too optimistic but he certainly got the wind in the sails to get us where we are today.
I think the though is to get warrant holders to convert over the month before the r/s. Or they have some pending pr that move the sp and they want to make sure they do the best r/s amount based on the sp?
I'm doing a little research on this situation, It looks to me this 8k is directed to warrant holders to give them notice that they need to do something prior to the R/S. I found this article:
http://www.farrellfritz.com/warrants-and-reverse-splits/
What i am wondering is if the existing warrants do not have a provision to be price adjusted in the event of a R/S and therefore will need to be exercised prior to R/S? Can anyone here clear this up? Is it possible this R/S is purely designed to get warrant holders to exercise? It could be the SP fall now is because warrant holders are selling stock so they can exercise their warrants?
I agree Axe, The risk of the R/S and uplist must be weighed against staying on the OTC. The past few PR's have clearly shown how the OTC has kept the SP from moving up as it should have. The SP was in high risk mode last year, now that the combo trial has such positive PE results the risk is far less and the SP is the same. We all anticipated a big jump in the SP as a result of getting the PE results and we now see how much the OTC sucks. I really am getting tired of the financial manipulations from mgmt but it looks to me there is no point in thinking the SP will move to a level that matches the potential of pro 140 if we stay on the OTC. Fear of what might happen after the R/S and uplist is real but necessary. There a plenty of past examples of uplists that worked, we discussed the differences before. Just because the history shows that R/S tactics are generally show a lot of downward pressure and shorting, most companies that turn to a R/S are in a bad situation already. This is a very different situation and this is not an attempt to prolong a failure, it is to fix a problem which is the OTC.
I was hoping that possibly the R/S and uplist was ditched because of some pending deal and the uplist would be not needed but it looks like the deal we are hoping for is still far off. We can't do much about that. I also think a big part of the future uplist is to get far greater liquidity for large share holders. Investing heavily in a company requires the ability to get out of the investment and the OTC volume is just too small. I see post uplist that we see far better liquidity and bigger blocks of buyers stepping in.
I'm with you, If the FDA wants to fund the trials then by all means follow their rules. But we are in a tiny high risk investment that must get funding and unfortunately the best terms depend on being able to tell a great story. If the FDA is really this strict then it is greatly restricting the possible funding terms and the SP. I have voiced my displeasure to the company about this radio silence. I don't think the FDA has such strict rules, CYDY is choosing to be silent because the risk of saying too much is too great. It really is a catch 22 but us investors would rather they put a little more sizzle on the steak. I think mgmt really respects the Paulson investors more than us retail investors and that might be because they have sign NDA's. I really think they are getting too far into the trials, deals get done during trials - not after they are complete. The next 2-3 months is when mgmt better really pull this all together. If we are still guessing at what is going on there will be way more direct calls to cytodyn asking WTF.
The only thing i can guess at is that mgmt is as quiet as ever and is only releasing information because they have to for SEC reasons. The other observation is that the volume is quite low, I have no idea how but leading up to some type of news there is an increase in volume. Based on this I don't think any news is coming soon. Mgmt's silence has been explained to me to be a result of not wanting to create problems with the FDA. I think we are in the wait and see part of development. Things are getting done, but some major deal is yet to be a real event soon. I have zero clue if the R/S and uplist is a thing of the past or still on the table. I feel like months ago it was a plan to get uplisted but because the SP movement was so underwhelming after the PE PR, mgmt might be thinking why bother. Us investors and mgmt want the same thing (buyout) and being on the nasdaq might not be as appealing. Along these lines, In my opinion, 2018 is the year for some type of deal. So, why bother with the cost to uplist and all of the accounting required when the ticker CYDY might be on the nasdaq for a few months at most. The issue I see is that these deals get done when a biotech is during p2 or p3, once p3 is done and no deal has happened then the problem is how to now raise the money to commercialize the drug? The trials are very far along and will be well past halfway this year, enrollment and data from the mono is the key for the most value.
I just did get a hold of her this morning. Basically she said the 8K/PR was not to be interpreted as good or bad news, it was required disclosure for investors and warrant holder agreements. They can't say how the trial protocol for GvHD will change until they discuss with the FDA and get their agreement to it. This is all about getting a trial that best represents the potential for pro 140 and they can't really tailor the trial until they get some idea of actual trial results. Th IDMC review was likely a sign that they can better adjust the trial in some way to benefit the company. The how and what is yet to be revealed. I take it as good news but how good is very difficult to say until we get some solid response and agreements with the FDA.
I also asked why we are having such subdued SP movement given the past couple PR's that I think most here felt would be game changers. Her response is that the FDA is very much in charge of the flow of information during trials, Any slip of information really can cause big problems. As much as we are in the dark compared to the past it is really just a consequence of being in FDA trials. It is not worth risking major trial derailments just to have a CC where some information is accidentally slipped out. so, we are just going to have to wait and see. She also felt the SP has actually moved positively over the past couple months and I told her this is a high risk investment and a move from $.55 to $.70 is not why investors are here, this is a multi billion product that is still valued at $100mil. I hope this gets back to mgmt but at the end of the day they can't just crank up the SP at will.
I also asked about why we are not being in part supported by the many HIV charity organizations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. The response is that they do talk to them but the problem is that these organizations are focused on helping in a charitable way, not supporting a publicly traded/for profit business. Makes sense to me but the line is grey between the two especially since drugs like pro 140 may never see the light of day unless they sell their sole in funding. but that is a whole separate discussion. Basically, mgmt is working hard to maximize the impact of pro 140 and is doing alot to get there. Informing the investors of every detail of this ever-changing/ complicated process is not a high priority mostly due to the risk that it might hurt more than help the process.
Totally agree, this certainly is not bad news, just a complete wasted opportunity of capitalizing on great news. Not one tweet or any statement from the company promoting this accomplishment. I'm calling Jody.
I am still very optimistic, I do remember that CC and Dennis's comments on GvHD. My frustration is that we are getting the progress and the SP is DOA. We can make excuses for the SP lack of appreciation due to the risk in this type of investment, the fear of trial difficulties and dilution. However, we are at a point where the risk has been greatly reduced and the trials are very far along. Future cash raises are to be expected and but not get higher because we are past the fully realized cost ramp up in these trial costs. Why do we need to give up on what logically should be happening with this companies valuation? There so many examples of small biotechs signing partnerships and getting deals done much earlier than where we are at and over drugs that don't have the market potential than Pro 140 has. Management owes us not just an update of what has been accomplished and what the next steps are, they owe us an answer as to why they can't get the market and industry to give a crap about this. I hate the idea that mgmt thinks they are doing a great job and someday we get to full FDA approval on multiple indications and we still only hear crickets. I do understand that the lack of news could be a sign that there is alot going on behind the scenes, however the volume in the stock does not indicate any deal is close and that the silence is all just to accommodate the FDA.
I have been told that the FDA very much steers the ship when it comes to PR's etc.. However I am getting tired of great news being presented so watered down. A few months ago we all were anticipating PE data and guessing how much the SP would move, and look what happened. We all anticipated that GvHD would be a bigger deal than we think and look at today's SP reaction. So many accomplishments are past and CYDY SP does not show any of it. As much as the FDA is a top priority, this is a publicly traded company and we are investors that are willing to take the risk. When do we get thrown a bone? I am very optimistic and have been for a very long time, but these PR's that require so much interpretation leave me scratching my head. I have no interest in calling the company just to be told they can't talk about anything. I was told they are considering having a CC, I guess that is not happening? My big problem is that we are past the major PR's that should have moved the SP and got partnership talks going, there simply is not enough volume to indicate there are any serious business deals in the near future. How can Pro 140 be so close to the multi billion revenue generation and be this close to stealing market share and the SP says we are worth less than $100mil?
I might be wrong, I can’t remember where I heard that. I am pretty sure however that it was in a cc where a caller asked Nader about the rebounds and increasing dosage. Misiu might be able to elaborate or confirm this.
Just to add to your memory, I also remember the comment about the increased dosage and I think they made the observation that hiv can change in density at times. It might not be that some individuals need a higher dose to respond but more like some individuals at some times need a higher dose.
This has been discussed in the past quite a bit here. It is not a canadian company that owns the drug, Theratechnology is just the licensed distributor for it. the drug is held by a taipei company, TaiMed, that is I believe partially owned by the chinese government. Ibalizumab is similar to pro 140 but they are getting FDA approval only for MDR patients, basically patients that are failing other treatments only. this is a small part of the patient population and Taimed is not actively trying to expand it's labeling beyond this. It is not really direct competition to pro 140 which is getting approval to be used along with other drugs in combo and/or on its own as a mono therapy.
It is rather silly to think there is a buy out in the near future when we can all scroll back a year on this board and see us all saying the same thing. However, a year ago we got regular CC updates, now it is silent. A year ago we were being told when enrollment will be done, now enrollment is done in one trial and it has been months since the mono trial enrollment #s were given and back then we had more than half. I strongly want to also say, we will know about a buy out after it is done - not before. The only indication beforehand will be an increase in the volume of buying in the days/weeks before. That has started but is not to the level that makes me feel something is days/couple weeks away. I am sure that there will not be some leak of information or hint about a buyout to us retail investors. Patients are being injected and data is being collected - the near future the trials will be very far along and near completion. There is nothing stopping it and the BP world will need to do something, billions of revenue is in jeopardy.
I do agree with you, it is frustrating to see the press coverage for an early stage drug that has so far to go and yet Pro 140 is so close and nothing gets traction in the publicity department. I might be a bit of a simpleton but why doesn't Nader give Bono or Bill Gates a call and see if there is some interest?
It is great that this potentally helps hiv patients tremendously but I see 2 big problems specifically for pro 140. One is that if GILD is now all in on a cure using this technology they might not be interested in pro 140 as a bridge between their current drugs and this potential cure. It might send a confusing message to buy a treatment when they are publicizing a cure. The second problem is why is the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation supporting this and not Pro 140? It has been asked of mgmt in the past as to why thy don’t peruse other funding such as grants and charitable contributions. Their response was that it is time consuming and there is no guarantee what you get.
I agree, I feel strongly the goal is a buyout and whether we are on the OTC or NASDAQ does not matter. The cost of uplisting and potential for greater shorting is one thing, the message it sends that they are going to be on the NASDAQ for some time is worse. I hope the plan to R/S and uplist was a past plan that is not being considered now because of some talks that we don't yet know about. The rolling of mgmt's options to 2023 is also a sign that they don't think there is a deal coming in the near few months. the last CC was a long time ago with more severe unknowns about the future. At that point an uplist might have been far more important than it is now.
I do feel strongly that at some point they are so far down the road of conducting the combo trial and enrolling/completing the mono that they have to make decisions to get a deal done instead of working on getting funds. At some point they don't need funds at the scale they are at now. I still feel the GvHD trials are a wild card and a potential low cost entry point for a partner. However i would not want the company to screw up a future HIV deal because a chunk of pro 140 is already tied up in a deal for another indication.
Most important is that we really have no idea what is going on and that may be the best news, if they were talking and laying out some long plan then a deal is not close. If silence is the rule then there hopefully is a reason.
Awhile ago I was talking to the cfo and one of the major advancements in the trials was the ability to get the funding needed to do so. It was said that the biggest factor in getting this to happen was increasing the liquidity in the stock. If you are a potential direct placement investor, the big question is how do you get out of this, having enough volume and liquidity is key to that. I personally feel the desire to R/S and uplisting has everything to do with increasing the liquidity further to get better funding than the current deals. I don’t think it has very much to do with getting the SP to move or establishing a value in a b/o etc.. either way it is clear that the lack of updates has become the new normal and there must be too much risk of making claims and key information slip by accident in a CC. I view this as a positive that there is key information that needs to be handled carefully as opposed to a meeting updating the motivation behind these decisions that we have very little to hang an opinion on. I have no idea if the uplisting is still in our future, it could be an excersize to develop a plan b that may never be needed.
That's an interesting opinion, what do you base it on? are you thinking that they may be close to a deal of some sort and the expense/effort to uplist will not be needed? I am of the opinion that the next step is a R/S and uplist in the next few weeks, but I could see not bothering is a sign that a deal is soon.
I think you are right, here is a definition of one type of poison pill from investopedia:
"A “flip-in” permits shareholders, except for the acquirer, to purchase additional shares at a discount. This provides investors with instantaneous profits. Using this type of poison pill also dilutes shares held by the acquiring company, making the takeover attempt more expensive and more difficult.
I would guess this is a sign of a RS and uplist in our future. Could be the major investors insisted the company do this or Cytodyn decided on their own as a protection given the PE data. I could see an aggressive investment firm jumping in before a BP buys this to flip it for a huge profit. It is a good sign that mgmt is planning on a lot of interest in the company in the future and that they don't want to have this slip by for cheap.
I can't remember the last time I've seen almost all of the volume on the buy side. looks like a lot of accumulation.
I find this unlikely, I believe BP knows about pro 140 and what it could do to their HIV portfolio. If there is some hostle low-ball offer they will step in and make sure this does not create a huge problem for them. I feel that BP is waiting for some event that forces them to step in. I like Saltz's comparison to the voice TV show, where one judge flips their chair around and the others do just because of the fear of missing out. I don't think there is any sign that mgmt is interested in letting this go for less than what they feel it is worth: $billions.
I agree, there is no worry in my mind about pro 140's patent protection future, I think that is why it rarely if ever is brought up as a concern. Even competing treatment options is not a worry because they are either not labeled to be used as pro 140 will be or they are so far from P3 trials that there really is no competition. Add to the list is the lack of worry about the science of pro 140 and the potential market size. The only thing left to worry about is financing and the time it will take to a partnership or BO. As I have roughly done the math on in past posts, the dilution from even continued bad funding deals is really not a big problem either (the multiples of market value covers this cost). So all we are left with is the time we need to wait for this to get done.