Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
This has been dormant for too long, i have a feeling it may start up again while the other one dies down.
Probably a few trillion in the float by now.
Although this holds true in many cases, imagine when this was at .06, and then hit .05, and you loaded up.
Then the shell guys dumped more, and it hit .04, and you loaded the truck up again.
Then the marketing crew dumped their shares, and it hit .03, and you took out a 2nd mortgage on your house and loaded up at .03.
Then a few extra low paid promoters and a few at the company unloaded some of their shares and it hit .02 - you already spent all your money loading up, took out a 2nd mortgage and you want to load up again so you take out a personal loan form the bank and load up at .02
They have endless shares to unload - they keep doing it and here we are at .008
Did your theory work? Your so far underwater now, and their were SOOO many shares (tens and tens of millions) sold off between .05 and .008 that you will never get your investment back, no matter how much you pump on a message board.
Its simply a person behind the shell dumping his shares onto retail investors. That is all it is.
i can get a credit card ordering system to function on a website in less than 4 hours. Simply use paypal.
Any real company would have this functional in no time at all.
Pozen will be profitable from here on out!
Here is how.....
- 1st quarter 2010, they lost 3 million or .10 a share. The 1st quarter ran from January 1st through March 31st. This will be Pozen's last loss.
- 2nd quarter. On April 30, FDA approved VIMOVO. This occured during 2nd quarter's operating cycle (which runs from April 1 through June 30), and awarded POZEN 20 million dollars from Astrazeneca. Given that sales of Treximet are flat and Expenses are flat (fairly safe bet), and that Astrazeneca will just begin the initial phase of marketing/create awareness/labeling of VIMOVO, immaterial royolty revenues from Vimovo will be recognized for the 2nd quarter. So, we have 3 million operating loss again, with a recognized one time milestone payment of 20 million, thus making 17 million, or .57 cents a share for quarter 2. Now, as i write this, it is May 12, and the quarter does not end until June 30 so there is a slight to moderate chance the EU also approves VIMOVO, bringing in another 30 million making the 2nd quarter BLOWOUT (well over a buck a share), but im guessing this comes in the 3rd quarter.....
- 3rd quarter (July 1 - September 30). Again, Treximet sales are flat, costs are flat to slightly higher with PA line phase R&D expense. Vimovo gets EU approval, bringing in 25 million. Vimovo sales are now ramping up, and we see sales of 15-25 million (lets use 20 million) this quarter bringing in 2 - 2.5 million in royalties offsetting slightly raised R & D expenses. POZEN rakes in .74 cents a share in the 3rd quarter.
- 4th quarter (October 1 - December 31). Treximet sales flat, R & D flat with last quarter, 20 - 30 million in sales from VIMOVO (royalty income of 3 million) and additional minor milestone payment from VIMOVO sales push the quarter to making 2 to 5 million, or .06 to .16 cents a share.
From here on out, VIMOVO sales are increasing both domestically and internationally now, with one time milestone performance payments coming almost every quarter, and POZEN approaches closer to 1.00 EACH quarter, and a share price of $50 to $80 beginning 2011.
In 2011 and on, the wildcard then becomes the PA product line, and if successfull, takes POZEN to $200 or over going forward, since they are doing the 'blockbuster' line solo.
And we are sitting here at just over $8 a share? Complete joke.
Down fairly big on a decent day on the market. I think CPBY will see the 4's, and possibly settle in the upper 4's before PR's/contracts snap it back up into upper 5's and 6's.
Probably not a great time to invest in CPBY right now.
Did you get in? Congrats if you did :)
My 'quick' thoughts on CPBY.....
First, it is and will continue to be one of the most undervalued, fastest growing companies you can find on any major exchange. GREAT long term investment.
Now, to the short term. They beat by .02 and came in at .12 - i realize that this is their slowest quarter, but i personally expected more.
Add to that, investors just do not like the stock for some reason. It seems to always pop quickly on news, but rarely can sustain the momentum.
Today, i sold premarket at 6.55 because i personally expected more this quarter than .12, and additionally, it needed a blowout just to move up and stay up. When i saw the .12, i immediately knew i would sell ASAP.
In closing, we all know CPBY WILL be above 10 at some point, so don't sweat it if your a buy and put it in droor type investor.
BMR's articles were extremely novice. They made it sound EXACTLY like a pump with their wording and style of writing.
I was in and out of this very quickly, but one of BMR's articles made me stay out for good because it was so full of PUMP, and it was horrible PUMP at that.
I can't complain though, as i traded this twice successfully.
They partnered with a rock?
Was the big news on partner ever announced?
Good luck Monday everyone. This week has been very, very bad for me. One of my worst in a long, long time. Hopefully next week is a good one. I NEED it! :)
POZN absolutely crushed me. FDA approval, and it gets slaughtered. Go figure.
3k shares going into Monday! I think we have yet another fantastic quarter. And remember folks, we are replacing the 1st quarter last year, which was .09 cents a share. Analysts are expecting .10 cents a share. The last quarter CPBY recorded .19 cents a share and the quarter before that .21 cents a share.
CPBY is going to blowout. Were gonna have a great Monday. Good luck all!
Anyone have room under the rock they crawled under? Looking for one myself.
That, or some deep, soft sand to stick my head into for a few weeks. Preferably white sand, although that might be black now because of the oil spill.
Been in the market investing individually for 13 years and investments like POZN absolutely amaze me. I don't even know if i can learn anything from this, because i think it is an outlier (freak example).
Just completely floored to be honest. Just do not get it. Doesn't make sense no matter how you cut it.
Fundementally, i would stay away from LDK. For a technical trade though, it is a good play (bottom play) as it has been hit pretty hard the last few days.
jst, ldk, ncty bottom plays
Don't be too jealous, im down on it! :)
You nailed it. Although i did expect more of an initial bang today, i do know where this will eventually be also, which is around $20 a share.
No way im selling at these levels. Matter of fact, i increased my position by 33% this morning.
I would definitely agree with that. The million dollar question is when, and i, like you, believed it would be today.
Why don't you sit back and watch and learn then. Your making me more nervous than the stock price itself.
They definitely will not need to secure any new funds. They now have all the money they need. Think they are up to what, 75 mil now in cash? With much more potentially coming in (EU approval and selling milestones for upwards of a quarter of a billion more cash).
And i believe a total over 10 years of 95 million was spent on their most recent approval, so no, they don't need more cash.
The only dilution that will happen are rewards of stock for the great work their employees have done. And that will be it.
If long term you mean monday, then i agree.
If short term means after market today, i agree.
But monday A.M. release, and we fly on Monday IMO. I think we would get the best bang.
Everyone would forget/lose interest if announced after market today, and we would not get the pop we want Monday.
Im guessing (hoping!) Monday morning announcement. If it is announced then, the momo can then take this to the moon.
Friday announcement would not be nearly as good for the share price.
THAT is why you DONT USE STOP LOSSES.
When FDA comes out and approves, and this hits 15-20, you will see how crooked the market is.
They can see all the stop losses out there, and short it to hit the first few waves, then the stop losses take effect and they all market sell, hitting one another like a set of dominoes. They cover most all their shorts on your dime, and then it slowly creeps back up to where it initially was.
NEVER DO STOP LOSSES!
appreciate the pics :)
POZN will spike much higher than DNDN because....
1) POZN has much higher percent of shares shorted
2) POZN has a much lower float
3) DNDN was already much more priced in for approval
I think POZN spikes 50-100% on approval.
Please do! Thanks for the pics.
Think the DNDN sellers are now redistributing to other bios immediately, such as POZN?
POZN is the next PDFU date, so i think that is where a lot of the DNDN $$$$$ will go.
Probably give us a another nice boost, enough to get the short squeeze going in conjunction.
If everytying can hit at once and we get a perfect storm, a quick spike to $25-$30 is not out of the question (big DNDN money, short squeeze, and approval at same time).
One can dream, right?
I do find that a little strange.
PLEASE no stops! The MM's can see them, and when they can short little amount of shares to start hitting them and tripping the domino effect, they will bring the price down.
If you can help it, please do not put stops out there. It will work against you here IMO (unless your job does not allow you to be at your computer obviously)
Couple POZEN questions....
1) Does POZEN actually manufacture Treximet, or does GlaxoSmithKline, with POZEN having no overhead and 100% margins on it?
2) Why is POZEN choosing Astrazeneca to market VIMOVO instead of Glaxo? Seems strange that you would have different marketing/sales companies for your 2 drugs, unless either POZEN shops the drugs arounds and Astrazeneca simply gave them the best deal/contract, or maybe that Glaxo did not do a good job with Treximet, so POZEN is looking elsewhere. Anyone know the case here?
Looking at POZN's financials, i would think earnings at this moment are not material.
The forward looking comments, if any, will be far more important.
How strict is the FDA with PDFU dates?
Do they normally almost all the time relay decision on that day? Or is it common to get a decision before/after that date?
Would be interesting to see the breakdown of percent decisions before date, on date, and after date to get an idea of how accurate/strict those dates are.
I can guarnatee ANYTHING that the shorts are using the horrible market condition and POZN's brief dip as an opportunity to cover and get away cheap before the runup and before approval.
They are the smart ones. I just cannot believe ANYONE could have the balls to be in this short on Thursday/Friday.
Last week, i thought we would see 14-15 before approval. Im not so sure now. I would think 12-13 pre approval.
Im gonna throw a tantrum if POZN closes below 11 again today!
Wow, its resilient - here it goes up again.
Kinda fun watching this play out even though i have not had a position in a few days.
One thing for certain is this selloff was a technical traders wet dream.
Went down so much so fast, no doubt the bounce play is there for a nice profit.