Pozen will be profitable from here on out!
Here is how.....
- 1st quarter 2010, they lost 3 million or .10 a share. The 1st quarter ran from January 1st through March 31st. This will be Pozen's last loss.
- 2nd quarter. On April 30, FDA approved VIMOVO. This occured during 2nd quarter's operating cycle (which runs from April 1 through June 30), and awarded POZEN 20 million dollars from Astrazeneca. Given that sales of Treximet are flat and Expenses are flat (fairly safe bet), and that Astrazeneca will just begin the initial phase of marketing/create awareness/labeling of VIMOVO, immaterial royolty revenues from Vimovo will be recognized for the 2nd quarter. So, we have 3 million operating loss again, with a recognized one time milestone payment of 20 million, thus making 17 million, or .57 cents a share for quarter 2. Now, as i write this, it is May 12, and the quarter does not end until June 30 so there is a slight to moderate chance the EU also approves VIMOVO, bringing in another 30 million making the 2nd quarter BLOWOUT (well over a buck a share), but im guessing this comes in the 3rd quarter.....
- 3rd quarter (July 1 - September 30). Again, Treximet sales are flat, costs are flat to slightly higher with PA line phase R&D expense. Vimovo gets EU approval, bringing in 25 million. Vimovo sales are now ramping up, and we see sales of 15-25 million (lets use 20 million) this quarter bringing in 2 - 2.5 million in royalties offsetting slightly raised R & D expenses. POZEN rakes in .74 cents a share in the 3rd quarter.
- 4th quarter (October 1 - December 31). Treximet sales flat, R & D flat with last quarter, 20 - 30 million in sales from VIMOVO (royalty income of 3 million) and additional minor milestone payment from VIMOVO sales push the quarter to making 2 to 5 million, or .06 to .16 cents a share.
From here on out, VIMOVO sales are increasing both domestically and internationally now, with one time milestone performance payments coming almost every quarter, and POZEN approaches closer to 1.00 EACH quarter, and a share price of $50 to $80 beginning 2011.
In 2011 and on, the wildcard then becomes the PA product line, and if successfull, takes POZEN to $200 or over going forward, since they are doing the 'blockbuster' line solo.
And we are sitting here at just over $8 a share? Complete joke.
