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BYD overtakes TSLA as leading EV automaker -
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/chinas-ev-champion-is-coming-for-your-gas-powered-cars-too-8b94a15e?st=g2mfsuzygq8mzux&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
CNXC -11.02 to 71.88, evidently down on concerns about call center competition from AI systems - seems like an overreaction but AI is certainly making inroads into business services.
The app-based AI chatbot already handles two-thirds of all customer service chats, the company said Tuesday—some 2.3 million conversations so far—with the virtual assistant earning customer satisfaction ratings at the same level as human agents.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91039401/klarna-ai-virtual-assistant-does-the-work-of-700-humans-after-layoffs
Silicon Investor Backup Board - try it, you'll like it -
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=34587742
Wade - you can believe whatever you like .... after all, you're the only one who believes this bull market is nothing more than a bear market rally. Too funny ! You believe a lot of stuff that others don't agree with, but that's fine.
Due diligence does matter when it comes to earnings. If you don't want to believe it that's ok. Also, constantly getting out of stocks for no reason ahead of earnings eliminates the possibility of a lower long term capital gains tax rate. Loads of my positions are over a year old. And thrashing in and out of illiquid stocks is costly. By always selling ahead of earnings and buying back after the report 50% of the time involves 3x the trading volume of someone who always holds through earnings and sells 50% of the time after the report. Very inefficient and costly especially with relatively illiquid stocks.
Years ago I told you when you did that study that it was a waste of time. Of course the average stock held through earning results in an average gain near zero. If that were not true we could all get rich by shorting every stock ahead of earnings ! Or going long if that was the average result was a gain. Due diligence is the key to outperforming the market whether it's holding between earnings reports or holding through the earnings.
OOPS ! SOMETHING GONE WRONG HERE -
I'm getting this annoying message very frequently now. What's going on ???? Is a fix in the works ???
Wade - it's 50/50 without due diligence .... most of us are selective about what we hold into earnings and do better than 50/50. PRIM is slow growth and was up 25% the past few weeks to new highs. It's not surprising to see the stock giving back some gains today.
AESI +1.40 to 19.73, the market is seeing this report positively ! As you say, an earnings miss was expected given reduced drilling activity and the acquisition is clearly good news.
However, I think the stock is now fairly priced and so I just sold my entire position at a decent profit but will consider getting back in on a pullback.
Good luck, maybe it will trend higher.
AESI (18.33) posts EPS of $0.33 for Q4, down sequentially from $0.51 in Q3 ..... this was a disappointing report, well short of estimates for EPS of $0.56. Falling oil and gas prices were a factor that caused less drilling activity. They did announce a Q4 dividend of $0.21 ($0.16 regular + $0.05 variable) and an acquisition that will add about 10% more shares while being double digit accretive to EPS and cash flow per share ..... so that's the good news.
PR -
Fourth quarter 2023 total sales decreased $16.5 million, or 10.5% sequentially, to $141.1 million. Product sales decreased $14.8 million, or 12.9%, sequentially, to $100.0 million (2.6 million tons at $39.00 per ton vs. 2.8 million tons at $40.62 per ton), driven by a decrease in both sales volumes and price, driven primarily by a slow down in drilling and completions activity. Service sales decreased by $1.7 million, or 4.0%, sequentially, to $41.1 million.
RMAX -.49 to 8.24 last week reported adj EPS of $0.30 for Q4 and $1.36 for FY23, so a trailing PE of merely 6. It's worth noting that the stock hit a low of $8.61 on 11/28/23 before rebounding to $13.35 on 12/28, a 55% rally partly due to falling mortgage rates and better prospects for existing home sales. However, hotter than expected inflation data has caused 30yr mortgage rates to rise once again, now at 6.9%, up from 6,6% in mid January, but still well below the 7.8% peak seen in late October.
The NAR in December forecasted 4.71 million existing-home sales in 2024, up 13.5% from 4.1 million anticipated in 2023 although that's premised on a now seemingly optimistic 6.3% avg 30yr mortgage rate for 2024. Regardless of mortgage rates, there is increasing pent-up demand both for buyers and sellers that should spur a y/y increase in home sales.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-forecasts-4-71-million-existing-home-sales-improved-outlook-for-home-buyers-in-2024
RMAX has a lot of downward momentum, so while the $6's may be possible, I doubt it falls to those levels. If it does, I'll be adding shares at firesale prices with expectations for a strong long term rebound. The 52wk high is $20.58, but even a rebound to December's highs would represent a hefty 62% gain from the current price.
I've always known that I'm #1, but didn't know that I'm #1 six times over ! That's good to hear, LOL
RMAX -.61 to 8.12, looks very oversold yet keeps getting cheaper. I added more shares today but am averaged in at around $10. Even with my poor timing of the bottom, I think I'll ultimately make a decent profit but it might take 6 to 12 months or longer .... I'm going to be patient.
AER -.54 to 78.03, probably down on profit taking. The stock is up 35% in the past 4 months and historically has a low PE. It's a long term hold for me and I do some trading around my core position. I'll be adding shares for a trade if it dips some more.
COLL +1.62 to 34.43 after beating estimates -
briefing -
Collegium Pharmaceutical beats by $0.20, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 revs guidance (32.81 +1.05) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.58 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.20 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 15.5% year/year to $149.75 mln vs the $147.86 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $580-595 mln vs. $583.38 mln FactSet Consensus. Co reaffirms FY24 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $380-395 mln.
AER (78.57) reports adj EPS of $3.11 for Q4, beating estimates for $2.59. Announces new $500M share buyback program.
AER is a nearly 7% position for me, my 3rd largest holding.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19632404-aercap-holdings-n-v-reports-record-3_1-billion-2023-net-income-and-announces-new-500-million
AAOI -7.16 to 13.19 after hours ..... Q4 earnings and the Q1 guidance were lousy. I also thought the stock was overhyped. It would have made a good short into earnings, but that's easy to see in hindsight.
The euphoria is definitely limited to selected stocks .... the Russell 2000 is actually down 18% from its peak on 11/8/21 - and the microcap indexes are down even more.
Price change since 11/8/21 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 21% 9577.9 7947.78
$NDX 7% 17478.91 16336.03
$DJI 6% 38612.24 36432.22
$SPX 6% 4981.8 4701.7
$RLG 5% 3233.9 3072.51
$RLV 1% 1663.47 1645.78
$SPXEW -1% 6479.57 6557.91
$COMP -3% 15580.87 15982.36
$MID -3% 2813.17 2907.4
$DJU -6% 854.18 907
$DJT -8% 15582.45 16890.4
$SML -12% 1287.81 1466.02
$RUT -18% 1994.74 2442.74
$RUMIC -27% 720.25 984.67
$W5KMIC -40% 13141.44 21830.12
S&P500 +100 to 5082, this euphoria has to end at some point !
It's not often the S&P is up 100 points in a day.
NVDA +101 to 775 - the party goes on ....
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/nvidias-ai-party-is-far-from-over-af2e31d1?st=a9or8wz7vdoqqtf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
AESI +.03 to 18.35, earnings due out Tuesday morning ..... analysts are estimating EPS of $0.55, but they did miss estimates for Q3. Even if it's another slight miss, I'm holding for the long term ....
ELTK -.07 to 13.18, thanks for the price alert .... I just placed some GTC buy orders in case it keeps dropping .....
LRHC +4.71 to 6.03 in premarket on huge volume of 4M. Normally this stock trades a mere 5k shares pre day. The only news that I could find is that they're acquiring one of their franchisees. Maybe a reddit pump ???
Celebration, FL , Feb. 22, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- La Rosa Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: LRHC) (“La Rosa” or the “Company”), a holding company for five agent-centric, technology-integrated, cloud-based, multi-service real estate segments, today announced that it has acquired a 100% interest in the Company’s franchisee - La Rosa Realty Winter Garden LLC (“Winter Garden”) located in Winter Garden, Florida.
Winter Garden generated revenue of $1.4 million and generated positive cash flow from operations. The franchisee provides residential and commercial real estate brokerage services. It also provides coaching and support services to agents on a fee basis.
Joe La Rosa, CEO of the Company, commented, “As part of our de-franchising strategy we continue to acquire franchisees that have achieved strong top-line revenue growth, agent growth and positive net income. We have additional franchisees that we have entered into LOIs with, in addition to two ancillary services companies that we are also looking to acquire. With the acquisitions we have lined up, we intend to reach an annualized revenue run rate of $100 million before the end of 2024 with the aim of becoming profitable in the beginning of 2025. By offering real estate agents the option of a revenue share model or an annual fee-based model with 100% agent commissions, we believe we are a disruptor in the real estate industry. With this disruptive model, we have been able to recruit more agents and we have experienced growth in agent count even when most of our competitors have seen a dramatic decrease. As we continue to acquire additional franchisees, we will add more agents to La Rosa Holdings potentially increasing top and bottom lines.”
NVDA +68 to 742 after hours on an earnings beat and solid guidance -
briefing -
NVIDIA beats by $0.57, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; sees Gen AI reaching a tipping point (674.72 -19.18) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $5.16 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.57 better than the FactSet Consensus of $4.59; revenues rose 265.3% year/year to $22.1 bln vs the $20.4 bln FactSet Consensus.
Data Center revenue was a record $18.4 billion, up 27% from the previous quarter and up 409% from a year ago.
Strong demand was driven by enterprise software and consumer internet applications, and multiple industry verticals including automotive, financial services, and healthcare. Customers across industry verticals access NVIDIA AI infrastructure both through the cloud and on-premises.
Data Center sales to China declined significantly in the fourth quarter due to U.S. government licensing requirements.
Gaming revenue was $2.9 billion, flat from the previous quarter and up 56% from a year ago, reflecting higher sell-in to partners following the normalization of channel inventory levels and growing demand.
Professional Visualization revenue was $463 million, up 11% from the previous quarter and up 105% from a year, reflecting higher sell-in to partners following normalization of channel inventory levels.
Automotive revenue was $281 million, up 8% from the previous quarter and down 4% from a year ago. Year-on-year decrease for the quarter was driven by AI Cockpit, offset by an increase in self-driving platforms.
Co issues upside guidance for Q1 (Apr), sees Q1 revs of $24.0 bln +/- 2%, implying $23.52-24.48 bln vs. $22.21 bln FactSet Consensus.
Expects non-GAAP gross margins of 77.0% +/- 50 bps.
Co added, "Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations. Our Data Center platform is powered by increasingly diverse drivers, demand for data processing, training and inference from large cloud-service providers and GPU-specialized ones, as well as from enterprise software and consumer internet companies. Vertical industries, led by auto, financial services and healthcare, are now at a multibillion-dollar level."
I'm not familiar with Schwab Streetsmart Edge ..... what portfolio management features do you find so useful ?
TOS
BOIL +3.21 to 16.94, up 23%. Timing is everything, but easier said than done.
HALO +2.22 to 38.22, I'm not aware of any short term potential competition to their patented recombinant human hyaluronidase enzyme (rHuPH20), but there's always long term risk.
I added some shares this morning at 36.93 average.
UTHR (214) is cheap, but not as cheap as HALO based on 2024 estimates. UTHR looks attractive, but much of its profits come from charging overly high prices on its Treprostinil products. There are competitive generics and phase 3 drugs that may be coming to market depending on litigation and drug trials. If that happens, revenue and profits will decline. Risky. Good luck.
CHK - Chesapeake is cutting 2024 capital expenditures by 20% due to low NG prices. The company is merging with SWN and together they are among the very largest producers in the country.
The cure for low NG prices is low NG prices. Prices spiked up 9% after hours when the news hit.
Lowering prior capital expenditure guidance approximately 20% to $1.25 – $1.35 billion through rig count reductions and deferring completions and turn-in-lines
HALO (36.00) had only $18M interest expense for 2023 compared to $387M operating income. So very trivial interest on convertible bonds which don't mature until 2027 and 2028. Presumably they'll roll them over before they come due. There is no problem with their debt load especially the way the business is growing. Also drug companies are generally not very impacted by economic downturns.
I plan to add shares to my position tomorrow. The stock looks very undervalued if their growth projections are anywhere near accurate.
HALO +1.30 to 37.30 after posting solid Q4 numbers and reiterating strong growth for 2024 -
briefing -
Halozyme Therapeutics beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; announces buyback (36.00 -0.10) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.82 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 26.7% year/year to $230.04 mln vs the $231 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $3.55 to $3.90, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.34 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $915 mln to $985 mln vs. $961.10 mln FactSet Consensus.
Board approved new $750 mln buyback.
PANW -70 to 296 after hours ..... earnings beat estimates, but guidance was lackluster. Palo Alto Networks is the world's cybersecurity leader.
briefing -
Palo Alto Networks beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; lowers FY24 billings guidance (366.09 -0.32) :
Reports Q2 (Jan) earnings of $1.46 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.16 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.30; revenues rose 19.3% year/year to $1.98 bln vs the $1.97 bln FactSet Consensus.
Non-GAAP operating margin grew 580 bps year over year to 29%.
Co issues downside guidance for Q3 (Apr), sees EPS of $1.24-1.26, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.29 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $1.95-1.98 bln vs. $2.04 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co guides to Q3 total billings in the range of $2.30-2.35 billion, representing year-over-year growth of +2-4%.
Co issues guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $5.45-5.55, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $5.52 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $7.95-8.00 bln vs. $8.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co guides to FY24 total billings in the range of $10.10-10.20 bln vs $10.70-10.80 bln prior guidance; new guidance represents year-over-year growth of +10-11%.
INMD -2.38 to 20.42, I added shares today .... there's no good reason for the big post earnings selloff. I have GTC bids in at lower prices and will be accumulating.
GERN -.09 to 1.92, too bad you didn't take my advice and sell last week in the $2.40's .... then you be happily buying back now. As per my post, this stock has a long history of giving back gains. It's hardly surprising to see it back under $2 rather quickly.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173828733&txt2find=gern
SMCI -200 to 803, I thought it might be a good short at 1000 .... unfortunately I didn't pull the trigger. It will be interesting to see what it does next week, but this morning's high of 1077 may have been a short term top, imho.
TSLA will be range bound, imho, but we'll see what happens. Good luck. If it drops back near $100, as it did 14 months ago, I will probably buy some shares.
CSCO has 10x the operating income of SMCI, so if they start aggressively spending more on AI servers, they'll surely gain market share. It will be interesting to see how the competition does in the next 12 to 18 months. I don't know if SMCI stock can go much over $1000, but I could be wrong. Good luck.
Look at TSLA - dominant player but competition forced margins lower. TSLA stock peaked at $400 late in 2021 but is now $188.
PLCE - I owned this stock years ago and after the latest earnings report it looked like they might be heading for bankruptcy. Now it's going through the roof. Crazy action !
SMCI - I think its business has lower barriers to entry than NVDA - SMCI competes with giants like CSCO, HP and Dell who are off to a slower start with AI servers, but will surely gain market share in the future -
10K -
The market for our products is highly competitive, rapidly evolving and subject to new technological developments, changing customer needs and new product introductions. We compete primarily with large vendors of x86-based general purpose servers and components. In addition, we also compete with smaller vendors that specialize in the sale of server components and systems. In recent years, we have experienced increased competition from original design manufacturers ("ODMs”) that benefit from their scale and very low-cost manufacturing and are increasingly offering their own branded products. We believe our principal competitors include:
•Global technology vendors, such as Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and Lenovo;
OGN +2.67 to 19.03 after a decent earnings report .... this stock was a great buy in the $10's back in December ! Unfortunately I got out of most of my shares much too soon. The post Q3 earnings disappointment selloff was way overdone.
briefing -
Organon beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs in-line (16.36 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.88 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.82; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $1.60 bln vs the $1.55 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $6.20-6.50 bln vs. $6.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to FY24 adjusted EBITDA margin of 31-33% vs 31.0% in 2023.
I wonder if SMCI is finally becoming a good short near $1000 ??? I think they are more vulnerable to competition than NVDA.
SMCI +78 to 959, now up roughly 2500% from your post back in 2022 .... I sure wish you would have told us it would be a 25+ bagger in under 2 years ! lol