Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thanks Mike, that would be extremely helpful. I am very heavily invested in AMMX myself and feeling the stress of each further delay. Nevertheless I've been in there patiently for years and it doesn't cross my mind to sell.
Well, Seattle, you seem to have a generally pessimistic view, but I see this latest announcement as very positive. It rings true to the nature and environment of this deal, and gives me a lot of confidence in its successful completion and the consequent establishment of AMMX as an effective player in the West African infrastructure world.
Hamre has said in the past that he does NOT grease the wheels.
Are you sure? I thought they were coming in through Benin the country, not from Benin City in Nigeria. Just checking.
Thanks 7Up, I see it the same way with the government of Niger. Now we need the lenders to stick to their guns.
Ref Ebola, a recent Oxford University study includes a map of 15 African countries that are most susceptible to an Ebola outbreak. Neither Niger nor Benin (the country through which the Chinese trucks will be imported) are named, and are therefore considered NOT susceptible:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/09/09/oxford-study-predicts-15-more-countries-are-at-risk-of-ebola-exposure/
Note also that the lenders to the AMMX scheme are obviously aware of Ebola, which may have been what prompted them to ask for an extra Niger bank guarantee and copies of local contracts, though I'm only guessing that connection.
The present share price of .021 is reasonable for the company's traditional business, meaning that the market currently allows no extra value for the Niger contract. Probably all believers are already fully invested, myself included.
Manipulation is easy with such low volume, will be much harder after the company shifts into higher gear, goes SEC etc.
Also I believe the 6-8 weeks referred to the submission of copies of private sector contracts to the lenders. Maybe there will be some additional time for the lenders to make their final decision.
US/French military cooperation in Niger : good news I think for the long-term future of the country.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/pentagon-set-to-open-second-drone-base-in-niger-as-it-expands-operations-in-africa/2014/08/31/365489c4-2eb8-11e4-994d-202962a9150c_story.html
More from Marty today:
" Changing domains…too many problems. Should be resolved today."
No, but it's my summary based on previous PRs.
Marty has usually been quick to respond to me.
We shouldn't expect any significant news until the end of September at the earliest (6 weeks after the last announcement.) That news could be "Copies of Niger government contracts with private firms have been sent to the lenders," so that even then there could be a further delay until "The lenders have given their final approval, and the contract is a go." After that only a short delay until we all join the 1%.
Marty says there seems to be a domain problem with AMMX.net but that all else is well.
I emailed Marty, waiting to hear back.
Maybe those solar panels are now on the roof of the Transport Minister's house in Niger?
I'm not on FB myself but wish you all luck.
If we all "Ignore" J Decker, as I have, he will in effect disappear from the board. Won't that solve the problem?
Ebola : this from BBC News, an impartial and well-informed source:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28865434
The article highlights actual and potential economic damage in certain West African countries, not including Niger. However the expert quoted ends on an optimistic note, namely that this outbreak of Ebola, while obviously very serious, will in due course be seen as only a temporary blip in the current African Renaissance.
I understand from Marty that Ameramex's trucks will be imported through Benin, which has a sea port, then over that country's land border with Niger. So far no cases of Ebola have been reported in Benin or Niger.
Note that Ebola in West Africa was first reported in March 2014. Four months later, in July 2014, the AMMX lenders, presumably with full knowledge of the outbreak, changed their requirement from one bank guarantee to two, then later still added the requirement for a sight of the related contracts between the government of Niger and private companies. I find this sequence of events encouraging.
By the time you see SEC filings the share price is likely to be a lot higher than it is today.
It's my nest egg too!
Pro Bono : I didn't, but as far as I remember what the lenders have asked for is copies of the contracts between the private companies and the government of Niger, not just commitment letters. That's why it's expected to take a few weeks.
I didn't get my usual email from AMMX either.
Mik : I quite agree, and have bet the ranch on it.
Biglued: if you go to Ammx website, investors page:
http://www.ammx.net/investors.htm, Request Information, you can sign up to receive their PR announcements direct to your email address without delay. I do this and it works.
Yes you are right. Towards the end of last year there was a big panic seller, at least 50 million shares, maybe much more, that's why the price went down to historic, and unrealistic, lows at that time. I expect some of us managed to pick some very cheap shares as a result.
Thanks Born, that's VERY good news.
As I'm sure you know, Marty is a director of Ameramex herself.
I hope Lee isn't planning to retire.
Born : coincidentally my Chinese Fortune Cookie indicator gives a similar result.
The 2q net profits and the 3q have been/ will be affected by the expenses of a lot of Niger trips + two guys living there for weeks. Peanuts however once the big deal funds start flowing.
Prez: thanks for the tip, I just did the same.
Agreed : you could play it safe and buy municipal bonds, or go for the thrill ride and buy Ameramex. I've made my choice!
If the market believed in the Niger deal 100%, the SP would be about 12 cents, and if it believed 100% in the expected follow-up deals the SP would be a lot higher than that. It's because of the uncertainty that the SP is only 2 cents today. AMMX is transforming itself into a much bigger company, so we should forgive them for the occasional hiccup on the way.
Quite agree!
Yes James it has been 4 years and I'm still bullish!
Born: thanks very much for this update, and you are right that they are showing determination here. However Marty's statement :
"...the lenders all want to review the final contract and terms and they all individually have to sign them after review.."
adds a bit more uncertainty to the outcome, and I think that is reflected in the current weakness of the share price.
Ha Ha you're right, but maybe we can focus on that in Vegas a bit later on, or rather our favorite champagne !
Nothing much to talk about until October, might as well sign off until then.
This from Marty yesterday:
".....the funding organization wanted to have the agreements between the private and public sector signed before funding the project….a new wrinkle. The trucks are for government funded projects that will be executed by private sector companies. The funder has the agreement and the signed Bank Guarantee from the two banks and has not had issue with them. So I remain confident."