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I was expecting some sort of announcement that Merit production has started this week. Time is running our for December, with the holidays and such. Merit production capability is advertised at 20,000 tons a year which works out to 40 million pounds at perhaps $2/pound put capacity in the $50-70 million range. Need significant customers bringing up the question of how much of that capacity is destined for Bunge?
Monday close +14.6% on 10x Average Daily Volume. In engineering momentum is defined as mass x velocity but in the stock market it’s price movement x volume. Tomorrow will be interesting.
Up 8.5% on 5x ADV by 10:30 am.
Up 8.5% on 5x ADV by 10:30 am.
The start up is scheduled for this month (December, 2020) and with BUROF volume on Friday at 10x the average daily volume, I expect the cat is out of the bag . The rumor mill will do the rest.
That’s interesting ...a 11%. move on 5x normal volume. Have to check the TSX
Annual meeting doesn’t have to be in person. Anticipate travel restrictions could present a problem. Even if Professor Li could get here to participate...he would probably be unable to get back into China.
I attended a virtual annual meeting for a Canadian Company last week...it was Burcon NutriScience (BUROF) and its archived on their website. We elected Directors, approved accountants and reviewed financials and plans. Sort of like an extended Conference Call. Many similarities with LQMT. It worked under the circumstances.
In this case we are talking about the “commercial real estate broker” that was involved in the leasing of the LF facility and this was his/her commission spread over the year instead of taken as a single hit.
Zyris?? Not so sure. The website says Isolite products are used in 12,000 dental offices and our order rate is 10k a month. Doesn’t add up....they never said it was Zyris but to me it appears to be some sort of consumable to support that volume....just more questions.
Just checked out the Zyris website....their newest offering is made from “liquid metal” (isolate 3). There are several other offerings that were previously introduced up to 15 years ago that are made from surgical grade titanium. Obviously there is an opportunity to expand our reach by replacing this titanium with LQMT parts.
Think of all the finger joint replacements that go to unfortunate folks with rheumatoid arthritis...and they only have to flex in one plane...probably a 5 year path to acceptance. In my last house, I was there 43 years but didn’t plant apple trees because was only going to be there another 3-4 years and why plant trees for somebody else? What a mistake...never did get any apples.
One thing that was evident from the 10Q is there was no mention whatsoever about the impact of the hinge technology. This tell me the “no CE” constraint is still in effect and the hope that we can benefit from the new phone trends may be just that...a hope.
Adjusting our course....the hinge technology is still unique and relies on the properties of BMGs to work so what we need are other applications that take advantage of what we have learned but avoid the area of Consumer Electronics. In the last 20 minutes, I jumped to knee joints, toys (think transformers—not the electrical kind), robotic parts, automobile hinges and anyplace there is a “piano hinge”. Adjust scale to larger for car hinges to very small for medical application and let the brain run.
The potential applications explode.
I never went along with the outrageous guesses by many on this board and thought $300-500k was a reasonable target. Everyone wants to blow away the estimates but there was no real reason to expect that outcome.
We shipped a recurring order in a target market..the only issue was the interpretation of order size.....live with it!
There is no basis for a class action...it’s all rhetoric and fear mongering. If they succeed in pushing the price to 0.10 or below, ...it’s only transitory..
I’m long and staying...and maybe adding if the opportunity looks promising.
Maybe next quarter we will get 2 or 3 more recurring orders...that’s how growth happens.
That would be absolutely wonderful but we have many percentages in series involved in the calculations..
Let’s approach this from another direction.....we have reduced our expenses to a very low number. The monies we receive from our China connection will flow to the net income line at 80-85% so they will be very beneficial.
So...what revenue do we need to declare PROFITABILITY?
That will be an important milestone that will move the stock price.
The Q2 loss was $643k so something like $800k/quarter gets us to breakeven
All this optimism is out of control and setting us up for plenty of negative future posts. A reasonable and positive revenue estimate is in the $300-$500 range. Get real everybody.
Before we break out the Champagne....190 million yuan is a big number....$27 million or so, there are adjustments to be made. What portion of the total OP is attributable to BMG production? What portion is destined for NA/Europe? What is the percent of our cut? 6% is an assumption based upon the Eutectix contract.
Wild ass guess...$10 million BMG, 40% to our geography and 6% cut =. $240k
It will take the bean counters a month to crunch the numbers.
1.5 million shares is a jump for LQMT compared to the last few weeks...hmm!
Don’t get excited about $300k/month of total sales revenue.....that is the output from.one or two machines. What are all the rest doing?
I think the non-sales cash inflow is important because it lowers the break even which means we can become PROFITABLE sooner.
Are there any indications that Euctrix has actually installed our machines. It’s difficult to generate revenues if they are sitting in a corner somewhere. Building permits? Power hookups? Hiring more staff? Advertising?
Press releases?
Any life out there?
Q-3 results....I expect investment income from building rental of about $120K which comes from rent at 32k/month plus 8k/month reimbursement for building expenses. The $30 million in more liquid assets should yield about 0.5% per quarter which works out to about $150k. This is the continuing base.
Revenue related to actual sales, I expect to be modest and probably below the expectations of most on this board. Any orders will be ramping up so a full 3 month impact is questionable. Existing/known applications do not have significant revenue. Big question relates to “crumbs” from our Chinese partners...their stocks are underperforming which indicates things may not be as good as we wish. It would be nice to see operating revenues in the $200k-$300k but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
I would really like the “under promise, over deliver” to come to the rescue.
Back when the Earth was cooling and Peter Lynch was managing Fidelity Magellan (@ 29.2% CAGR), the Holy Grail was a 10 bagger. Reaching $1 by the end of 2021 is an eight bagger with a time limit.
Manage your expectation to conform with reality and you will be happier....don’t crush them but maybe a slight adjustment is in order.
To get to $1 by the end of 2021 requires the stock to double three times in 14 months....it’s happened before but very rarely. Execution is the roadblock...our credibility depends upon having sufficient manufacturing capacity to support growth. What capacity we have is poorly documented and expansion plans are spread throughout the MAZE. All the pieces need to be ready to go....everything from molding machine fabrication to alloy production to sales development and worker acquisition/training need very aggressive growth plans in place along with funding..I’m unsure whether the system can move that quickly.
Oh well....we are speculating on the possibilities (literally!)
I’ll even go farther out on the limb....when we get to $2 it’s probably time to do the 1:10 reverse split to get the outstanding shares to a more reasonable level in preparation for relisting. At that point, we can drum up more interest to propel it higher.
I’ll take a shot....the easy one first and that’s “when will we be a $100?” The short answer is never since that would imply a market cap of $100 billion plus or minus. It would also imply a net income of many billions so it just won’t happen.
The other question targets $10/share which amounts to about 80x where we are today. The market cap would be $10 billion but long before that point we would have to transition from a stock price driven by “hope and dreams” to one that must have fundamentals to support the price. Assuming a P/E of 20 requires us to have a net income of a staggering $500 million. I’m way too old to think about that,
I do think that we could possibly get to the $1-$2 range with the “hopes and dreams” leg of growth.
One dollar is 8x from where we are now....that is 3 doubles and with some good things happening, I say maybe 3 years
Two dollars is guess what? A 16x which is 4 doubles and I’ll say 5 years but to get there we need to demonstrate the capability of generating pick a number...$10 or 50 million of net income with a good positive trend.
SWAGs at best.
Thanks for posting the entire PLA, I hadn’t the opportunity to read it prior. Of course I have comments....
I see Apple’s input all over it...especially the reference to Crucible, the protection of third party information and the surprising disclosure that any litigation would be subject to the statutes of the state of New York. Additionally litigation goes through the NY Federal District Court....it has big money attorney involvement all over it.
Second area of interest was listing of patents and publications....many references to foamed BMG as an area of development which I think was associated with body armor production. Other patents (and publications) talked of continuous manufacturing processes. Most of this work was dropped 10+/- years ago but its interesting none the less.
Foamed materials can range from 1-2 pounds per cubic foot such as polystyrene or polyurethane all around us all the way up to 20 pounds per cubic foot which resembles a brick. Even at 20 pounds per cubic foot, it is still only 1/3 the density of water so it floats like a cork (almost) but is extremely strong.
Tesla’s main thrust over the years has been to reduce weight to boost range and performance so foamed BMG offers a tremendous opportunity to achieve that goal. It would leverage the superior strength to weight ratio and put it on steroids by foaming it.
Now let’s consider continuous casting of foamed BMG sheet or the molding of foamed BMG fenders/doors. The need to exclude oxygen contact from the process would necessitate an inert atmosphere (nitrogen or argon) and a fully robotic manufacturing process from raw material input to final product removal. I think our current level of robotic assist is about 90% there already. All of this could be possible with sufficient emphasis.
You see nothing of value....I see opportunity. I see a method to continuously produce (extrude) products, have BMG’s that are antibacterial, an equipment design patent for processing BMG and lots of composition patents to enhance desirable properties.
We could even make guitar strings!
The scenario I just described has no floor so theoretically if there is no net income, there is no money to split.
An alternate way of structuring the split is to put say 3% in the income statement above the income line and then split the potential net income at something less than 50/50 ....perhaps 67/33 with LQMT getting the 33.
We have no business risk....no capital $, no labor, no direct costs. The only thing we contribute is the Liquidmetal name and some aging IP.
I look at the IP deal as a two way street since we get the rights to.Eontec’s more recent patent portfolio in return for our older less relevant patents. Hope we get to use it before the PLA expires..
Tha net income return for a well run profitable company usually ranges in the 5-15% which corresponds to a P/E of 6-20. I’m assuming we calculate the split at the income level which is reasonable and that the split is 50/50 giving a range of 2.5-7.5% based on sales dollars.
I expect that our cut will be under 10% based on sales dollars and most likely in the 5% range.
I think that when you start splitting the spoils, you have to go to the “net income” line to do the split. Looks like you are splitting a very optimistic “operating profit” line that has many costs yet to be accounted for. Wish it were so.
Tesla revenue....I think we can see at least royalties if they make the door locks in China and ship them to Fremont, California. Our geography, our royalty.
This group is repeatedly setting itself up for disappointment....the focus shouldn’t be on revenues because the only true revenues are bridge pins and dental pieced parts since the orders originate in the US. Most of the parts that are manufactured in China will show up as Eontec revenue and our slice (if we are entitled to it) will show up as royalties or license fees. We have been assuming a 6/12% royalty fee but there is no confirmation of that number. In any case, a million dollars in parts may result in $60k in royalties so it will need to be many millions of applicable sales to get to a meaningful total.
The true road to success I will be having 2-3 major manufacturing partners using the technology, based in the US and building a healthy royalty stream.. it’s just like the insurance industry....sell a policy, collect a cut of the premiums forever. Also good news royalty stream companies drop 90% of those royalties to the net income line.
We are on the right end of the technology evolution....the phones will get slimmer, the wavelengths will get shorter and the parts will become more intricate with tighter tolerances.....as these things will happen, and. the alternatives become less and less viable. We are well positioned.
In the meantime, automotive and medical can be attractive targets...albeit slow to adopt. Patience.
Eontec (300328sz) earnings date is 10/29 and Yunhai (002182sz) is 10/23 for a potential preview.
WOW....Take a deep breath, close your eyes and chill. I have been a stockholder since 2014 and I still see the potential here. The answer isn't in a quarter or two ...it’s farther out. Look at the trajectory of the acceptance of the new technology and project where it will be in 5 years. Is there any question that there will be broad acceptance of the technology? At that point, I expect 4-5 major manufacturing partnerships that will be generating significant royalties
I expect to see $3 in five years....any more is gravy.
Not your posts but a general comment
We are weaving smoke and trying to create facts.
Weekend again....FLOAT...so LQMT has 900 million shares outstanding and roughly 400 million are locked or controlled by Prof. Li leaving a calculated float of 500 million. Here’s the problem...we behave like a stock with 50 million float. Typically I expect a stock to trade 1%., 2%, 3%, or maybe 5% of float on a daily basis. Today was a larger than average day at 2+ million it just doesn’t fit. Are there so many tightly held shares that the available float is only 10% of the calculated float?
How else to explain the fact that a 1 million share trade can move the price 7-10%?
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Piedmont Lithium announced a contract to supply lithium to Tesla this morning. The stock tripled from about $11 to $35 on the news. Just think how big a jump would happen with a $.15 LQMT on any significant news.