is excited about Parker and AAL!! Wahoo!!
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There's no way there is 25 mil left out of 30 mil.
And believe me, I would love to be wrong on this. I spotted several more dispersals prior to that most recent one you sighted, all similar in size and recipients (not us).
Again, would love to be wrong.
I think we're talking about the same thing. What you're referring to is the DCR (disputed claims reserve).
...and by "several" I meant several additional ones, after ours. About 4. The last one was in March of this year.
You are aware there have been several distributions, right? Just none of them included payouts to us aamrq-ers.
The unions and others got more after we did. If there is anything left in the DCR, and I don't have figures on it if there even is, I se no reason to believe they'll give it to us. Especially since they've been tapping it pretty regularly.
Yeah but as I posted, and Doug backed this up in the conference; they have debt coming due and won't pre-pay it. It will begin to decline in 2017-18
And cap-ex will decline then also. i wouldn't be surprised if they drop share buybacks then and focus on debt.
Only what's remaining in their previous allocation. Approximately 1.2 billion as of last week, but that will drop as they expend it obviously.
It's gonna come back. They're just going to have to buy back more shares and get the EPS to $15 the hard way :)
They probably sat this round out to spend what they had, and will start another round next quarter, just like that did last 4Q16.
OMG is it green ?!
I almost don't know what to do with myself.
Cmon Doug, give us something to hold on to here...
Who knows?
One thing I can tell you with assurance, this stock will never do what you want it to.
Well, get ready. Let's see what this week brings...
GLTA
remember about seeking rationality in the irrational...
I was just commenting on a question raised during the Q&A. Doug dismissed it but I was pretty proud of myself (sarc) that I had floated the idea a while back and an analyst did now too. It's in the transcript.
Again, if you have information, I'd love to see it. That's kind of what this board is for.
I don't believe that's accurate. The share count is being reduced quarterly, and by definition that excludes shares held by the company. If you have info to the contrary I'd like to see it.
Remember, they just can't go around paying off that debt willy-nilly, there are penalties if they do. They are balancing it with cap-ex and it will begin to lower by itself in the upcoming years.
And also, if they authorize another round of buybacks (likely) that will also add pressure . More so each round.
Good quick math, and you are right. For now.
As I said, there will come a point. Not there yet, but look at spirit and Skywest. The only thing justifying the pps is a far smaller number of outstanding shares.
And btw, I posted as early as last year regarding taking the company private, and what came up in the recent Q&A? You guessed it....
So I'm not the only one seeing the possible end game on this. (Insert gloating emoji here...)
It's inevitable and simple math. And the daily churn is hovering closer to 12 mil at this point.
You might be surprised.
If they keep buying back shares there will come a tipping point. Usually triggered by them soaking up enough shares to get into the daily trading demand/turnover. I don't have a guess what that number is but it is out there somewhere.
Their retiring of shares will eventually constrict the number available for trading. It's a mathematical inevitability. But again, that number alludes me. It's going to be somewhere between the number of shares outstanding and the number held institutionally (a large portion of which would not trade as fluidly).
Just saying.
Yep, they said they have 1.2 billion left an authorized repurchase dollars, and they have brought the share count down to 537 million as of June 30.
While I am not holding out hope for $40-$50 returning anytime soon, I would very much like to see this at least on equal footing with Delta and United. This big of a difference between us and them is very irritating. They need to complete the share buybacks and then start hacking away at this debt.
$38-$40 is not a price target I relish. But at least being equal with the others would say something. Then we could move with the entire sector rather than lead it down and hold back from rising.
It appears you're not the only one. At some point they're going to buy up enough shares so that the float has been seriously reduced. It's theoretically possible that the majority of the shares out there, at some point, could all be either held institutionally or by the airline them selves. One nice thing is with us being in the S&P 500 now there are certain amount of index funds that are required to Hold it. That plus the hedge funds we may see this at least catch up to our peers later this year.
And more to my point, another in depth analysis:
http://marketrealist.com/2016/07/analysts-still-recommend-buys-american-airlines/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed
Thats' a joke. And a textbook example of why Buffet says Analysts are a joke and not to be trusted. Perfect textbook example.
They reverse course on a dime, and back-engineer their analysis and prognostications to in actuality FOLLOW what the market does, not predict it. It's all about ass-covering when they're wrong. And as he says, they usually are.
Perfect example.
Follow their advice at your own peril.
I can't believe I'm celebrating we're at 28.
I want to barf a little.
Well you're right about a couple of things, and semi-right about all the rest. (jmho) And I know I'm sounding like a pessimistic douchebag, but I'm pretty fatigued here. Enough already...
He's never going to say the right thing. He's going to leave any cheerleading up to his team. That's not his style, clearly. And as far as 42, I'm sorry but I don't see it any year soon. The best I'm hoping for is we finally are on an even par with the other big two.
And that is going to take ALL the aforementioned stuff to happen for that to be, unfortunately. And I think it's a bit of wishful thinking that all will happen, but I am wishing it none-the-less. We need the debt to be where our peers are. No way around it. Manageable or not, it's an anchor around our necks.
Well two thoughts on that. First off I'm amazed yet saddened at how right you were. $25.
Second.. I wish for you, and all of us, that we had the $$$ to jump in long now, because this feels like a bottom for sure.
Brexit AND an airport bombing and we're climbing? If this isn't a bottom I will never actually know what one is then. I just wish I had the reserves to buy more but I am maxxed.
This is an absolute nightmare, and the bleeding may continue for a while.
But the small silver lining is they'll get more shares for whatever buyback money is left. And I can't imagine Doug and co. Want to see there own shares continue to deflate. Maybe there's a plan in place?.
Yeah I got creamed on RFMD a few years back shorting. Guessed right a few times, got cocky and overextended myself. I've never treaded into those waters again.
And up until now, my buy and holds have been great. Except...
Jesus, man I never would have guessed you'd be right. Wow this is painful. I hope you followed your magic gut and shorted, at least you'd make some cash. I obviously didn't . CMFAO.
At this point, I would be a complete moron to disagree with you. And I'm only a partial moron. On a good day.
Yeah, that's what I thought too. Of course we all know this is a terrible overreaction, but it still hurts nonetheless. One of the problems with this volatile stock is that it probably triggers stoploss action every time it drops, which only adds to the increased downward movement.
That's my guess too. Oh well, I'm not retiring for a decade so I'll be with you all until at least 2025. Settle in, it's gonna be a long one...
He is mistaken probably. He could not have had "all my AAMRQ shares converted" as they only converted 74%. He may have bought some after the date of record, and may not be entitled to any more, or something like that. I'm with scottrade and I've still got all mine in escrow. Which is as someone posted earlier, is really just an accounting record.
Good one.
So would he be saying they look good right now, or they look bad? That can be spun either way.
Holy hand grenades, look at the volume.
This will recover, but it could be a 2017 thing.
I've heard numerous analysts and talking heads, blah blah, and the only phrase they ever seem to agree on is "for investors with longer term horizons" and the like. Maybe they're right. It's not going to be anytime soon.
yep, I have a little in reserve for more, but I'm glad I never pulled the trigger. And it just keeps going lower..
Well, on the upside, they're going to buy a butt load of stock at these prices.
If they play it right, they could get it down to 500 million outstanding.