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North, you mean award of free options?
Yes, JT didn't sell his shares and I see it as a neutral.
HD,
I did not say he thinks RI is a failure. I said it looks like it's a possibility to him so he plays his options accordingly. The bottom line if he didn't sell anything he would make a lot more $$$ if RI gits than he would make now with the shares he already sold.
HD, that was exactly my point. The head of Amarin R&D apperentely thinks RI failure is a possibility and trades his options/shares accordingly.
A new house? Maybe next to JZ's house he bought after selling Amarin shares right after V approval but before ADCOM fiasco.
Kiwi,
You are correct. He still owns 200k shares according to Yahoo finance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMRN/insider-roster?p=AMRN
He sold 452k shares since October 2017.
https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/insider/KETCHUM%20STEVEN%20B
My obvious question is why he decided to sell and leave a lot of money on the table if RI succeeds? He's a head of R&D and knows about RI more than anybody else.
This could be nothing but IMO it's something investors should not ignore.
Raf, just like I said you are not looking at a bigger picture.
If all you care is EPA science. Maybe you should consult with Amarin's R&D head Steven Ketchum on science aspect of RI trial and don't forget to ask him why he sold all his shares.
Raf, you need to look at a bigger picture.
There's still too many unknowns to correctly guestimate RI results.
Large CVD outcome trial results could be very unpredictable due to various factors.
Amarin's head of R&D selling his shares ahead of RI results is concerning.
Amarin has no drugs in the pipeline and RI failure will be devastating for the company and its shareholders.
The bottom line. Yes, the science behind EPA is sound, but nothing is garanteed especially when you deal with a large multinational, multi-year trial.
From trading perspective even if PPS doubles the morning positive RI results announced. So what? Many would gladly pay that premium knowing they just avoided a huge haircut if the results were bad.
A lot of money still to be made between $7-$8 and your BO target of $47.50.
No point in arguing over this. Time will tell. Hopefully dilution at much higher prices will be the biggest of our concerns in a few short months.
GLTA!
Agreed 100%.
All good points, but the clock is ticking. If RI is successful Amarin has to go full force and increase sales substantially that will consequently increase BO price.
The bottom line, I agree dilution isn't necessary but knowing Amarin I'm confident they will dilute again.
HD, successful RI won't be enough. Amarin will need to educate docs and make them aware of RI success. Especially those who are new to V.
If management was more investors oriented, I would agree with you. However, knowing Amarin management's addiction to dilution every time opportunity presents, I'm 90% confident there will be another dilution after positive RI results.
Ziploc, you also need to account for administrative cost, training, etc. Not to mention that when Amarin dilutes they don't keep it to the minimum. Hopefully PPS will be high enough at that point.
AMRN plans to terminate Kowa co-promotional deal and triple sales force after RI results. That tells me if a BO doesn't happen quickly after RI results are out (assuming they're positive) investors should expect another round of dilution.
I don't think BO will be finalized before Amarin secures FDA label expansion after favorable RI results. Too many people remember ADCOM ambush to blindly trust FDA on this. However the better the results the faster things will move with both FDA and BO negotiations.
I guess Steven Ketchum is not aware of what about to unfold here. lol
4% increase in NRx while GL took 1% hit is a good sign of what's coming. Hopefully the trend continues with help of ongoing advertisement compain.
First, that's not 100 times as if you were comparing PPS. Second, I agree with you. Markets and valuations could be very irrational sometimes. Actually quite often. The $3 PPS Amarin is trading at tells me that investors areren't willing to bet on favorable RI results. Amarin doing unnecessary secondary and executives selling ahead of RI results didn't help either.
You should be comparing market caps not pps.
Probably some shorts covered seeing other better short opportunities in this down market.
It feels like Kiwi would love to bet more $$$ on RI results but because of his age he has to play safe. So he keeps looking for excuses why betting on RI results is too risky.
I suggest you read 8k. If other generics approved earlier, Teva can start selling too.
According to 8K AMRN is paying TEVA $2mil as part of the settlement.
https://fintel.io/doc/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/897448/000119312518173647/d547840d8k.htm
That was a good one!??
JL, I apologise. I did not mean to offend you and I did not know you already posted that link. When I came across that link I felt it was worth sharing with the board and I was surprised by your comment.
Again, I think you are one of the best contributors to this board and I'm sure many will agree with me.
I'm sure he can't wait to post "I told you so" lol
I agree. FDA label approval will be another potential catalyst to play.
Tasty,
Appreciate the reply. I agree with most of your points. I also think RI results should be good and sufficient to get label change. My only concern with RI play is that it's all or nothing. So I might sell some if the run up actually happens in the next few months.
If RI hits and the sp jumps I would expect another round of dilution. That's just how AMRN mgmt operates. Dilute first think later.
What is your take on RI upcoming results?
It's not successful. The writing is on the wall. But it has no bearing on V.
"Temporary hair loss may occur. Normal hair growth should return after treatment has ended." - Maybe too many patients lost hair. lol
Cardiologists' opinion on V is "worthless" according to plastic surgeon and self proclaimed EPA expert who has been wrong so often.
Jefferies NYC Doc Day expert opinion - excerpt re Vascepa
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2294&mn=2692&pt=msg&mid=18289121
"He said the investigators are now working to close out the study as fast as possible." - that doesn't sound like it was a successful trial.
Results will be presented in November. We'll know RI results by then.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/larryhusten/2018/05/21/nih-halts-large-cardiovascular-inflammation-reduction-cirt-trial/amp/
Sounds like there will be a very short time frame between the data lock and study results announcement.
206% from the current pps. I think the WS is not ready to pump yet. Remember back in January a single tweet from AF and the share price took off from low $3s to mid. $4s.
I still think we'll see substantially higher sp ahead of RI news.
Cantor Fitzgerald has $10 target price on AMRN yet doesn't consider upcoming RI results big enough catalyst. That much for their due diligence. lol
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/cantor-fitzgerald-18-drug-companies-201029170.html?__twitter_impression=true
HD, I was under the impression 5.2% is Amarin's estimated composite rate. The second graph on that chart was representing actual events rate. That was in line with estimated but started to divert slightly after ~1year into the trial as of October 2013. So I thought that diversion became wider as actul rate is now at ~4.5% vs. 5.2% estimated.
What is your take on Amarin's Reduce-it primary event projected rate 5.2% from their ADCOM presentation. IMO it's very likely the diversion is due to V efficacy.
I did not mean to misquote you. I just was surprised to see that comment from you knowing how bullish you are on EPA.
Try these two. They both cover New York.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lenaraitman
https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-huang-33819960
I'm sure those too. lol