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I agree; however I have come to see that what is coming will likely not come until end of July, give or take 2 weeks. So I'm cynically patient.
That would be great, however, when a stock is up 5-10% in a day, there will be profit taking, especially when folks realize we have already hit the high of the day. I'd take 2.5% up today, and any day for that matter.
I'm relaxing...don't worry. Just stating facts as they occur; that's all. It's really the nature of these plays...buying comes flooding in, then it slowly bleeds down until the next round of buying. I'm also honing my prediction skills :)! LOL. Have a great day. Should close around .41, and about that I am not complaining!
Looks like she's timbering down for the day. Hope it goes better tomorrow...I guess I shouldn't complain about a green day. I'll be happy with a close above .4
New post on EDVA's Patent Blog
Patent reform and some other tidbits…
by edvapatent
It was pretty evident today that a collective shiver went up the spine of investors who are invested in companies suing for patent infringement. Judging from the share depreciation of stocks that could in any way be considered "patent assertion entities" (PAE) it seems that many of these same investors must not have read what exactly the five executive actions intend to cover. A great breakdown on those (5) actions is contained in an article by Julie Samuels from the Electronic Frontier Foundation here. The point of this post is not to discuss the merits of reform (yes there are many and it could spur greater innovation in the future, everyone gets that) but to analyze any clear and present danger investors may be exposed to.
What I want to point out is how this will affect the cases already in process. It may be necessary for you to read Julie's article above (or have familiarized yourself with the President's proposed executive actions through another source) in order to understand the points I'm making (or not and you can just read to read):
1) This action pertains to "new" applications. Presumably this action would not cover any continuation patents. So while a "specific" method may be "cornered" in new applications, I think we will see very little slowdown in infringement cases based on this action since we have about 2 million patents in force (valid) which is more than enough to fuel lawsuits for a decade.
2) Update patents to reflect the real owner. Ok, for the super sneaky patent troll I guess this is a problem but not for the likes of Vringo, or Worlds, or VirnetX or most any legitimate entity bringing suit that I have seen. Yawn...
3) No targeting end users of a product. Great. Most of those users are used as a pawn anyway since it is leverage for Company A to tell allegedly infringing Company B that we will come after all your customers if you don't settle. To think that Worlds Inc. for example is going to launch millions of actions (or wants to) against all WOW or COD game players is absurd. It is a threat, plain and simple, and beyond that most end users are indemnified against claims arising out of common, everyday use.
4) Address flaws in the system with third party stakeholders and members of the community...what?! This sounds like ordering people to have a group study session. There is no teeth to this action plain and simple. Good idea but no teeth.
5) The last action relates to imports which are often kept out of the U.S. because patents keep them out. This often creates higher prices for consumers which of course can be disadvantageous (can anyone say drugs from Canada?).
So what to make of all this? In many ways patent enforcement cases that we will see in the future are likely to be of higher merit across the board, particularly if they are culled by the threat of the loser paying. As for investors in the patent litigation space, we wish they would read more than a headline to try to ascertain which way the wind is blowing before getting panicky. For those who did read in full today (and early) today was a decent day to buy a few quality names in this sector. As for new legislation (which of course would need to pass both houses of Congress in an environment about as cooperative as say the Iranian government with respect to IAEA weapons inspectors) remember there is often an 18-month to two-year lag until implementation.
I don't mean to be cavalier on this subject but it is time to get back to the merits of these individual cases which are highly, highly unlikely to be affected by any coming legislation or executive action. It never ceases to amaze me how distracted investors can get.
On a separate note I made a comment in another post the other day about Worlds Inc. (WDDD) requesting authority to enact a r/s in coordination with an up-listing in the future should that be advisable. Similar to the patent reform issue (which of course is considerably more broad) people have failed to realize that Mr. Kidrin has had the authority to enact a r/s and is simply (in the interest of time and expense given that Worlds does not always hold an "annual" meeting of shareholders) asking shareholders to continue to grant said authority. One other critical statement from Mr. Kidrin was the implication that any r/s would happen only "after" the ATVI litigation had run its course. Once again, this issue rises to a bit of a red herring and I applaud savvy investors who have taken advantage of it.
Finally, in a side but related note, NetEase's original contract for World of Warcraft in China was reputed to pay a 55% minimum royalty to Activision for three years beginning in 2009. This according to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter.
edvapatent | June 5, 2013 at 12:48 am
Celtics, or anyone else,
Can you please explain in simple terms, without anything cryptic or assumed, exactly what is happening to the share price, and why this is happening right now? I have no idea what is going on, and I mean not a clue. Can anyone explain it?
More than that, the Obama administration is not seeking to wipe out patent holders such as WDDD who develop their own patents and continue as PE. The administration is wiping out companies which buy up patents they never developed and use the money they made in court to buy up more patents which they can enforce. My take on this is there has never been a better time to be in WDDD, for the laws/regulations being proposed do not directly affect WDDD's ability to ascertain large sums of money from Activision, if the Markman bears out that Activision is infringing. In fact, I think once people realize what WDDD is doing, there may be a flood of investors who leave other patent litigation companies (trolls who bought patents) and come flooding into WDDD!
WDDD is not a patent troll; WDDD developed the patents and is now enforcing the patents it has owned for over a decade. WDDD has waited patiently to enfoced the patents, and now intends to do it. If they bought these patents from someone and were doing what VRNG has done, that would be a different story.
Get ready for the results of the Markman hearing. If it is even half as successful as it appears it will be for WDDD, everyone invested stands to make a lot of money.
If that is the case, then that would explain the massive number of shares which have been most recently sold.
But who knows. I think we'll hit a new 52 week high prior to the Markman, but, as I never tire of saying, I am here for the results of the Markman hearing, and then, depending upon the strength of the hearing, the trial itself. The results of the Markman will be released anywhere from probably 2 days till 2 months after the hearing, and most likely somewhere between 1-4 weeks. Can't wait.
Art,
Thanks for the heads up and the courtesy. I just got off the phone with Thom and he told me he did not want posted what we talked about. Therefore, please destroy, in entirety, any record of my post.
Again, thanks, and I learned here a valuable lesson: due diligence is first of all personal, and only in rare cases something to be shared corporately.
The more I read about, and talk to, Thomas Kidrin, the man appears a class act, very respectable. Looking forward to the Markman hearing, and especially the announcement of the results!
Moderators,
Out of respect for the CEO of WDDD, Thomas Kidrin, and especially his privacy which I may have encroached upon by writing on this message board, without his permission, what he told me on the phone, please delete my post #10661. Thanks, and I am sorry for posting the entry in the first place.
Celts (or anyone who may know),
Do you have any idea who has been dumping large blocks of shares on the ask the past few days? And do you have any idea why they might be doing it?
You're right! What was I thinking? If WDDD is worth $7.00/share, then it should be trading at $7.00 a share. Man, none of us around here are very smart; thanks for enlightening us.
Ever heard of undervalued and overvalued companies? Guess what. Major shareholders in WDDD happen to believe the company is severely undervalued, which means we think it is currently trading at a fraction of what the company may soon be worth. Come July we'll find out how much it's worth. If you don't believe it's worth much, then why do you bother posting on this message board? If you want in so badly, just put an order in at the bid...they've been filling the orders at the bid the past few days.
By the way, we don't think we're smarter than everyone else. We do think we're willing to take this risk, and others are not willing, because of the lawyers involved, the amount of money at stake, and the validity of the patents.
Sorry for the sarcasm.
For those who have not yet read between the lines, there is MAJOR money to be made by WDDD if successful at Markman. Susman Godfrey, represented by Max Tribble, took this case on contingency after studying it in depth for what appears to be about 2 years. WDDD has lined all the ducks in a row for years and years, and now they are enforcing the patents which they developed and have informed others they are infringing upon.
Cannot stress enough that with a favorable Markman hearing, the likelihood of which appears very high, this company will be well on the road to being worth at least a couple hundred million dollars. So take the least amount and do the math from where we are currently at. The time is coming soon. Get ready.
Given that the picture on the post is the Great Wally of China from such a vantage point that it is ascending into the sky, I think the cryptic message is not that cryptic: as ascends the Great Wall in the picture, so will ascend the share price of WDDD the further forward (in time) we go. He's having a little fun with art.
Brief EDVA article
"Anyone interested in potential damages in this case should familiarize themselves with the Georgia Pacific factors (below). We submit that Susman Godfrey will offer evidence that will put, at minimum, the apportionment of all of Activision’s revenues for WOW & COD in a range between 35-55%. We strongly suggest that at its current price WDDD is an extremely attractive buy. We are continuing to add to our position at these levels."
-Edva
Georgia-Pacific Factors for Determining Reasonable Royalty
1. Royalties patentee receives for licensing the patent in suit
2. Rates licensee pays for use of other comparable to the patent in suit
3. Nature and scope of license in terms of exclusivity and territory / customer restrictions
4. Licensor’s established policy and marketing program to maintain patent monopoly by not
licensing others to use the invention
5. Commercial relationship between licensor and licensee, such as whether they are
competitors or inventor and promoter
6. Effect of selling the patented specialty in promoting sales of other products of the
licensee; the existing value of the invention to the licensor as a generator of sales of his
non-patented items; and the extent of such derivative or convoyed sales
7. Duration of patent and term of license
8. Established profitability of the products made under the patent, its commercial success
and its current popularity
9. Utility and advantages of patent property over old modes and devices
10. The nature of the patented invention; the character of the commercial embodiment of it as
owned and produced by the licensor; and the benefit of those who have used the invention
11. The extent to which the infringer has made use of the invention and the value of such use
12. The portion of profit or selling price customarily allowed for the use of the invention
13. The portion of realizable profit attributable to the invention as distinguished from non-
patented elements, significant features / improvements added by the infringer, the
manufacturing process or business risks
14. Opinion testimony of qualified experts
15. Outcome from hypothetical arm’s length negotiation at the time of infringement began
Source: Georgia-Pacific Corp. v. United States Plywood Corp., 318 F. Supp. 1116, 1119-20
(S.D.N.Y. 1970), modified and aff'd, 446 F.2d 295 (2d Cir.); Unisplay, S.A. v. American
Electronic Sign Co., Inc., 69 F.3d 512, 517 n.7 (Fed. Cir. 1995).
Well said. There are too many "traders" who enter WDDD under the impression they will add 30% to their portfolio within a week, and then move on. But patent plays are catalytic, then bloody. A huge catalyst adds (news, event, substantive and widely circulated article, etc.) 30-40%, and then the price bleeds out until the next catalyst. The difficulty in being invested in a stock like WDDD is learning patience, for there is absolutely (and I meant the word absolutely) no way to tell when or what the next catalyst will be. And there is absolutely no way to "get in quick" during the catalytic run. By the time you try to get in, it is too late.
Therefore, when it comes to investing in patent plays like WDDD, you either get in, stay in, and wait patiently, or you don't get in. The third option will drive you nuts: get in and expect something to happen overnight.
Still holding about 80,000 shares; still anticipating we hit $2.00-$3.00 post-Markman hearing. And I think, in my opinion, this thing will run the week before the Markman hearing and immediately thereafter in anticipation of a positive ruling. Relax...you are yet early to the party; most guests will arrive. Have a complimentary soda.
My two cents: I'll be voting "Yes" to the increase in Authorized Shares, and "No" to the reverse split. If the patents have the inherent worth I believe they do, and that inherent worth is validated in the Markman hearing and proven in a court of law, there will be no reason for a reverse split: the share price will be $4.00-$7.00 without it. If non-institutional investors are unable, because unwilling, to increase the share price to $4.00/share or more in response to a positive Markman hearing and either a settlement or a win in court, then there is something inherently invaluable with the WDDD patents which a Reverse Split will not cure, but will in fact make worse for those invested.
Long story short, if the patents are as valuable as they are being claimed to be, a reverse split must necessarily be unnecessary, and should be, therefore, in my opinion, avoided (voted against).
But this is just my opinion and my vote...what do I know.
Joe,
Is it possible that you could acquire another interview with the CEO and ask Mr. Kidrin the rationale behind the vote to increase the authorized shares and the vote to do a reverse split?
I think this stock will run fairly high pre-Markman, and I think settlement is possible and additional suits as well, but for me these are mere icing in the successful Markman hearing cake. And they may be some pretty thick icing!
Here we are, at the first trading day with less than a month before the Markman hearing. I'm not so pumped about the pre-Markman run-up as I am about the Markman hearing itself. I came for the hearing. As Spanky mentioned, many will enter WDDD the week before the Markman hearing because of the 30-40% jump in price at the announcement of a successful hearing. Since it is impossible to time the announcement of the results of the hearing, I don't think it is a stretch to say that many will buy in right around the day of the hearing and wait at least 3 weeks to hear the results. Exciting times.
Whoever it is has deep pockets of shares.
None taken. Don't worry about offending me...you won't.
Wow...what's with all the bid-whacking today? People are selling their shares like crazy...doesn't make any sense.
In light of EDVA's fair-minded due diligence in his most recent article, I think what will be of tremendous use for investors is his next article on damages. Investing has to do with the bottom line, so putting monetary value to the damages will be a huge help to any yet standing on the sidelines. Personally, I am VERY excited about the Markman hearing! I intended to sell some shares prior to it to de-risk a little bit, but after reading what EDVA wrote, I actually intend to increase my position next week. Exciting times coming!
About one month to go. Let's get ready for volatility! The moment investors have been waiting for is soon to transpire, and if the Markman hearing is successful, which I am taking the chance it will be, then $2.50/share, give or take $.50, should be rather easy to attain.
I know things may not turn out as I plan they will, but having S&G take this case on contingency, and being that Worlds is not a patent troll but the rightful developer of the patents in question, I think there is a very strong case to be made for willful infringement and therefore a rather large sum of money to be paid Worlds by Activision.
Good night all; see you with EDVA in the morning.
This is just a wild guess based on the psychology of selling. If you want people to sell into your hands at cheaper prices, first you drive the price up with some big buys, and you let those buy orders sit on the bid momentarily. All of a sudden people start thinking about selling at higher prices, and about the next stock they will purchase, and the sell orders get put in. Then, you remove entirely those buy orders off the bid and flippers and profit-takers who anticipated selling that very day start to get nervous. Instead of walking away and waiting to sell another day, they sell today, at lower prices, right into the hands of those who want to cover or buy cheaper. This could be entirely wrong, but is what I think has been happening the past 2 days, including this morning with the premarket action.
According to his blog post on May 17, he said sometime this week. It's only Wednesday today...three more days:
http://edvapatent.wordpress.com/
There was the dump by the seller. If you picked some of these shares up, good for you.
That will happen in due time. Desperate, impatient sellers are just a great buying opportunity. Almost always when they are done selling the price creeps back up.
Remember that in these plays the bottom periodically appears to drop out of the stock and the volume dries up. And then, out of nowhere, buying hits and the price runs up dramatically. At the present time we are in the stage where the bottom has dropped out and the volume has dried up. Many people unfamiliar with these plays will then sell. But usually within a day or two they'll regret it as the volume will pick up. It is just how these plays work.
Get ready folks. I cannot predict when this is going to run North, but it will run. Get ready.
Patience. Some folks are running to VRNG to enter what will likely be a decent pop before June 3. Many of them will re-enter with much more money! Some are running to SCRC because the prices are so low today.
But what should strike all of us is that with all the selling, the price is holding up very well! This thing is poised to run, it is just a matter of when. Steady she goes. Patience will pay.
Excellent, Coolerheads. Much appreciated, and, as always, much to consider. And a good morning to you as well.
Does the judge have to rule on the RR before June 3, or is he free to wait months to rule? Sorry if this question has already been answered.
5 weeks away from the Markman hearing. Things are going to get exciting around here!
Well, considering we received no news this week, I'd say we had a really good week. Looking forward to news/articles in the coming week(s).
Fair enough. But a Markman win will draw more investors, and thus a rather large share price increase, and a whole lot of volatility between the Markman hearing and the trial. It is these things which we investors are here for.
What you're failing to see is how undervalued WDDD currently is compared to the stocks you mentioned. 40 million market cap. If Worlds market cap hits 150-200 million pre-Markman, then what you're saying may contain more relevance.