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AR.v Argonaut Gold Motly Fool just put this out.
Revealed: 5 Top Gold Stocks Trading Under $5
http://www.fool.ca/2016/01/26/revealed-5-top-gold-stocks-trading-under-5/
Now up over 30% since I posted 14 days ago that it was cheap and why.
I am waiting for what I think is the last and final dip in the price of gold coming soon, to choose and add from the best of our quality bargains. I have my targets. Interviews at PDAC might play a role.
If gold dips below $1000 theirs going to be blood somewhere!
EDV.To Great day. Happy for you guys. I own a small amount and was on my short list to add. Instead I added AR.t Argonot Gold at .80 (now 1.02) up 25% since I posted as cheap on the 14th 12 days ago. I updated my EDV notes on the 16th
AR.t still trading at EV near $110 M and guiding for 140 K production this year. Comparing the two proportionately with these 2 metrics, they are close.
AR has a jurisdiction advantage but EDV is a CF machine with lower costs.
I think both these companies are leveraged to the POG nicely going forward
If Argonot gets funding for Magino, PEA says they will add 300k yearly ounces at $640 AISC with $1200 gold
AR.T Argonaut Gold Announces Updated Pre-Feasibility Study Results for the Magino Project
76% increase in reserves, a pre-tax Internal Rate of Return "IRR" of 28%, a pre-tax Net Present Value "NPV" of US$610 million, an average annual gold production of nearly 300,000 ounces and a payback period of 2.6 years.
Probably their first move on the way to producing 500k Oz/yr will be getting Magino going with this greatly improved PEA. AISC is $640 with an NPV of $610M at $1200 gold
In the mean time, with a current EV of about $100m, 130 - 140k oz production, no debt and AISC $950, they can sit on their hands and build cash if they want.
AR.V Argonaut Gold is cheap! Market cap $143M Cash $46m and little to no debt. EV about $100m
2016 Guiding for 130 - 140k oz with AISC $950
They have 12 million oz of M&I and excellent exploration potential and selling for only $12 per oz
2 producing mines now and 3 to build all on our continent. Their guiding for 400k ounces by 2020.
Bobwins Thanks Re ICG Im out! Im watching to see what they turn up as well
Great write up. Like you said, the steal on the mill and permits was what sparked the value.
The PEA supports 110oz/yr only using a portion of the mill capacity and for only 4.5yrs. The 2016 drills will at least add to the mine life.
1.67 million ounces gold 9gpt using a cutoff grade of 5 g/t is a screaming good grade. That and the low CAPEX are the reason for the High IRR.
But you gootta wonder how much is priced in now with all the attention their getting? At 113M market cap now, and another 65M warrants coming soon, there will be 425 OS. We have some solid 80- 100oz producers trading for less market cap now.
How much extra MC will they get for the low $750 AISC ?
My bad I thought the deal closed on Jan 23
It is anticipated that the Arrangement will close on Wednesday January 13, 2016.
PTAXF Halted. Anyone know why?
Gold could go either way. The world has never been so turbulent. One side you have economic slow down weighing down commoditys. On the other, things could blow any where bringing up the fear trade. Europe, the Russian border, middle east, desperation caused by low price of oil, fragile credit markets, all could lead to a flight to liquid cash ore gold.
Trader Re GWA Im disappointed too but I think Cork hit it. Really hard for GWA to be in the drivers seat with Gold under $1100 and threatening to drop below $1000
Couple things. They traded shares for the cash to move forward towards some drilling and the bulk sample. The share count and market cap moved forward by the same amount leaving the share price the same. The POG has them strapped here.
Fortunately they have cash to get them into 2017, but still need the $20 million to put get to production. The POG has them strapped here again. I would rather them wait it out, rather then give another large equity position at these share prices.
On the bright side, the insiders have been supporting the company.
They are working on infrastructure improvements.
The permits could start coming in any day.
They will be drilling their Transition property due to past obligations.
The drill could turn up the beginnings of another potential hot zone as geo physics predict or they could miss. Either could effect the share price.
This should all be coming in this quarter. So back to the price of gold.
Higher POG should make the economics attract fair financing and their off. Lower POG and we could get the slow bleed.
Checkmate28
Trader Re GWA Im disappointed too but I think Cork hit it. Really hard for GWA to be in the drivers seat with Gold under $1100 and threatening to drop below $1000
Couple things. They traded shares for the cash to move forward towards some drilling and the bulk sample. The share count and market cap moved forward by the same amount leaving the share price the same. The POG has them strapped here.
Fortunately they have cash to get them into 2017, but still need the $20 million to put get to production. The POG has them strapped here again. I would rather them wait it out, rather then give another large equity position at these share prices.
On the bright side, the insiders have been supporting the company.
They are working on infrastructure improvements.
The permits could start coming in any day.
They will be drilling their Transition property due to past obligations.
The drill could turn up the beginnings of another potential hot zone as geo physics predict or they could miss. Either could effect the share price.
This should all be coming in this quarter. So back to the price of gold.
Higher POG should make the economics attract fair financing and their off. Lower POG and we could get the slow bleed.
Checkmate28
Some good News! Sell Stocks, Buy Gold', Says UBS
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3805136-resource-sector-digest-sell-stocks-buy-gold-says-ubs?isDirectRoadblock=false&app=1&uprof=44
Thanks Cork. GORO Luckily I was watching, looking for 1.35 I thought I had the wrong stock when I saw 1.15 like 5 minutes later. Got a nice fill at 1.16 Then chased it up as it ran to the 1.20S for the 2nd order. Had I been watching delayed, I'd of missed it.
The EV ratio was near $50 M today. I think we see improvements when the financials come out this month and soon after a glimpse of the future. Like you said, this should be screaming buy even at the current price.
GORO Anyone with insite? LC?
Doody put out a sell rec right after the divy cut but the article is old.
Most Silver majors hit hard today
GORO -25% Wow and I'm glad I caught it. I think a fund is selling. Called the company. They know of no reason other than the divy cut as to why. I just bought a load at between 1.16 and 1.24
Long way to go before they get into financial trouble.
GORO -25% Wow and I'm glad I caught it. I think a fund is selling. Called the company. They know of no reason other than the divy cut as to why. I just bought a load at between 1.16 and 1.24
Long way to go before they get into financial trouble.
LSG SAS Strong production results from Lake Shore Gold, St. Andrew Goldfields
POSTED ON JANUARY 08, 2016 BY JAMES KWANTES
Great article below on both these Timmins On. companies. I posted strongly and often on both when no one wanted them. I saw potential & positive catalysts lined up and knew the re-rating was coming. Looking forward Lakeshore with $100 million in the chest is going to keep on growing and giving. St Andrew was just getting started and now teamed with Kirkland they form a strong emerging mid teir. Who knows, either of these, being right next door would make a good suiter to pick up my Gowest Gold. Right now GORO and EXN are setting up to come out swinging. Nobodys talking these companies either.
http://ceo.ca/2016/01/08/41066/
Two of Canada’s stronger mid-tier gold producers were out of the gate today with positive 2015 production reports.
Timmins miner Lake Shore Gold (LSG-T) produced 178,700 ounces of gold in 2015, compared to a record 185,600 in 2014. However, the treasury has grown to $100 million (in cash and bullion) compared to $60 million a year ago, and Lake Shore also paid off its debt in 2015.
Lake Shore achieved record mill thoroughput in 2015, processing about 1.3 million tonnes at an average grade of 4.4 g/t with average recoveries above 96%.
2015 also saw Lake Shore take over Temex Resources before that junior and its historic workings in East Timmins could be absorbed into the new Oban Mining (OBM-T) vehicle.
Lake Shore plans to release a resource estimate for the 144 Gap Zone during the first quarter.
The company has a market cap of about $593 million and the stock is up about 51% in the past year.
NR: Lake Shore Gold Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2015 Production Results, Company Releases 2016 Guidance
LSG
St. Andrew Goldfields (SAS-T), which in November agreed to a takeover by Kirkland Lake Gold, produced 107,733 ounces of gold in 2015 – a record for the company, which operates three mines in the Timmins gold district.
Fourth-quarter production – boosted by the Taylor mine, which began producing in November – was 37,155 ounces.
Head grades ranged from 4.55 g/t Au at the Holt mine to 7.55 g/t at Taylor. 2016 should also be a banner year as it will include a full year’s worth of production at the Taylor mine. St. Andrew is also exploring along 120km of land straddling the Porcupine-Destor Fault Zone.
The deal with Kirkland Lake Gold is expected to be completed by Jan. 26, and the new company is projected to produce between 260,000 and 310,000 oz of gold at cash costs between US$600 and $690.
2015 was a banner year for St. Andrew shares, too – they’re up 74% in the past 12 months. St. Andrew’s market cap is $173 million.
NR: SAS reports record gold production for fourth quarter
Kozuh SAS That was tough. I have high regard for the old Kirkland and SAS. The two compliment each other to form a stronger company with both enough cash and growth. I would have bought either at the right valuation.
When I asked my self the same question, it came down to what values would appear during Dec tax loss and how that would compare to the new Kirkland. Since SAS is tied to Kirkland and already got a 50% uptick with the premium, plus both companies didnt have the conditions for large sell offs for tax reasons, it was easy to find killer bargains and sell SAS.
I bought more EXN Excellon and more recently GORO. Both have the same 4 conditions that appeal to ME!
1) Both proven low cost producers that have enough short term cash and the ability to break even at even lower gold price starting mid 2016
2)Both are in the penalty box, left for dead with poor sentiment for sub par performance due to emphasis on improving the future quarters growth and profitability, at the expense of current cost reducing CAPEX expenditures the past 2 or more quarters.
3)Both have eminent near term catalysts that will unlock the current valuation for large FV future valuations relative to current share price
4)Both are thoroughly researched and understood by me which shouldn't be a reason for anyone else to buy
Do some DD and you'll catch on.
Hope others are bringing out their favorite valuations champs since I can only thoroughly understand and stay current with about 30 different companies and am always looking for the next great under valuation with solid pos catalysts. I appreciate other efforts here that would leed me to follow up on the DD.
Checkmate28
GLTA
GORO Gold Resource Corp $1.60s Officially Very Cheap! Great tax loss buy. Trading at a 9 year low an an EV near $75M
Just reduced their sector leading dividend and shareholders sold off.
If their right, GORO is dangerously struggling with staying even and paying the bills and has a great chance at sliding backwards.
The contrarian view! Gold resource declares this in todays release:
The Company remains primarily focused on its producing Arista mine in Mexico but also aims to reallocate capital to its recently optioned Gold Mesa, Nevada exploration effort. Gold Resource Corporation is evaluating a 2016 drill campaign to test extensions of high grade gold drill intercepts at Gold Mesa, with a goal of defining a near surface, high grade open pit or pits
Operationally GORO has not been hitting home runs lately but are making huge progress in setting up positive catalysts. GORO is producing about 80K ounces per year. I dont think they see pushing more marginal Arista ounces through the mill just to make a few dollars, as the best use of their time and money. About 1 year ago they doubled their production capacity from cash flow and still have capacity for about another 40k ounces per year.
Positive catalysts Going forward:
1)Switchback area 450 meters from the mill. Ramping over now Should be pulling development ore first half of 2016 that will add CF
2) Restarting the leach circuit from 2 sources. July 30, 2015 – GORO) announced high-grade drill results from three of its six properties within its Oaxaca Mining unit. The Company is also progressing towards 2016 mill feed from Alta Gracia and an Aguila mill agitated leach circuit startup. 2gpt Au plus 600gpt Ag in the same intercept.
3) On the exploration side, they are pushing getting cheap propertys with high grade, potential heap leach production supply, from Nevada. With a low CAPEX heap leach operation and some cash flow, This could happen soon with more exploration success. I think the Reids would love to make this work in their back yard and become a multi project company.
Checkmate28
EXN.t Excellon Resources .33 +50% in Dec. Posted 2 times in November on Excellon being one of the best values out there. CEO Brendan Cahill thought so to. He purchased Dec 9th at .21 and .23 I was bidding for the same shares. Millions of shares traded below .25
By year end 2016, their going to be producing at a rate 4 Million ounces of Silver Eq with AISC of $9/oz
PEA shows net $59Million cash flow for years 2016 - 2019 @ $17Ag. CAPEX of $6M is funded. Full benefits producing thw 4M AgEq rate will be done by end of q3 2016. Current market cap is only $18M after the +50% bump in share price. You can see where this is going.
Their resource is about 800 gpt of silver and 1250 gpt AgEq making it the highest grade silver producer I know of. Thats 80 Ounces per ton Exploration upside is huge when they get the cash flowing again.
http://www.excellonresources.com/images/Presentation/2015/EXN_Corporate_Presentation_-_December_12_2015_-_minimized.pdf
Traderfan GWA, Its been a long ride and not many micro caps survived the tough times and created share holder value at the same time. As you know I always believed in the the deposit and the mgt to bring this forward.
In Dec13 and Jan 2014 you could buy the shares at .03
In Dec14 and Mar 2015 you could buy the shares at .05
In early 2016 full permits should be in and hopefully followed by
decision to finance. Gold price should play a big key here.
Cheers to more positive progress.
Checkmate28
GWA.v Gowest Buys Back 1.5% Royalty on Frankfield Property Cost 10M shares.
Dont know how they pulled this off but value went in a positive direction.
Under the original terms of the Royalty, Gowest held an option to purchase the Royalty from the Vendor in its entirety at any time upon payment of CDN$1,000,000 for each half percent (0.5%) of the royalty (for a total payment of CDN$3,000,000) and also held a right of first refusal on any offer to purchase the royalty made by a third party. The Company was also obligated under the Royalty agreement to make a one-time payment to the Vendor, at the Vendor's option, of CDN$500,000 or 2,500,000 common shares of Gowest upon the commencement of commercial production at Bradshaw.
The savings here will increase the "NPV" of the Project from CDN$49.6 million to CDN$52.6 million and increase the ("IRR") from 32.01% to 34.25%
Note the numbers from the Pre Feas are based on reserves. Reserves are a small portion of the M & I. Also the Pre Feas did not include the benefits of the ore sorter as Stantec kept the report on the conservative side.
The CAPEX to put the project together is only $20 Million. The potential leverage on the IRR numbers from increased volume and efficiencys available here is high.
Checkmate28
EDV.TO Was just going over that this AM Growth & Leverage - I'll third that. EDV just keeps feeding its thirst for growth. Couldnt do it without the management and its extremely low costs. Price of gold going up should make this an out performer.
Dr Air your right with the La Mancha transaction not being factored in the OS. The author of the included article below makes that clear and backs up your other points.
Will Endeavor Mining Continue To Outperform In 2016?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3736446-will-endeavor-mining-continue-to-outperform-in-2016?app=1&auth_param=sqob:1b6adjn:72d7913f062a901bfaec6bf3a443a6d1&uprof=44
SAS.t Up another 5% to .44 - Now 100% since I posted it as best buy at .22 in Dec 2014.
Do we sell or wait or a better offer?
Either way, we take the buyout and do well or if the buyout is rejected, we should keep the valuation as Taylor is going to give them a near 50% bump to production with lower costs for 2016
huesos GLK I think both DNI & GLK have the same goal for the most part. The auto manufactures are racing to produce low cost battery operated vehicles that will require high purity spherical graphite. This will require the graphite to first be micronized, purified, shaped and coated before it can be called SPG aka Spherical graphite. This is needed for Lithium Ion batteries. There is 10 times more graphite in a battery than there is Lithium.
As to both companys, their aim is to become one of the lowest cost suppliers of high-purity technology graphite and to be able to fill orders of many diff specs for many different customers.
I think only the low OPEX/CAPEX operations will make it in the end and both these companys look to be setting up for the future demand. This means low dilution to share holders provided there is good mgt.
On a side note and out more in the future, there is nothing that will change our world more than Graphene. Graphene is also processed from graphite and will be the equivalent to what computers did for the world.
As to DNI I think they stand out from all the other companys
A) they have a growing cash-flow stream, a luxury other graphite companies dont have,
B) solid mgt that has proven they can move the project,
C) Most of all, because my vision sees them setting up, the lowest cost on the planet to get graphite (raw or processed) to the end user.
d) Best of all! They should be generating a sizable amount of near future cash-flow with respect to its current valuation.
One thing about getting the DNI shares, is the OS is low and due to high insider ownership, the float is very low. Not enough current liquidity for most here on this board. Plenty of time to chip away as they create more value and therefore more opportunity's to get undervalued shares.
Checkmate28
DNI.v DNI Metals +120% (Graphite developer, wholesaler and almost with BANK FINANCED lab facility. Still at about a $3 Million Market cap set to bump cash flow and profits.
I spoke with mgt and was impressed with the character, knowledge and experience the mgt has (check). They laid out a plan and have followed it to a tee and then some (check).
DNI has 3-4 current and coming revenue sources.
1) DNI METALS INC. (DNI : TSX-V)
FOR RELEASE – March 23, 2015
DNI Metals Inc. (“DNI”) announces today that it has entered into an 5 year supply agreement of natural flake graphite concentrate, to Great Lakes Graphite Inc. (“GLK”)
What other North american graphite company is selling graphite now? And from a $2Million MC valuation. More offtake agreements/revenue should be forth coming here. These relationships will pave the way to off takes from their Madagascar property.
2) DNI was able to buy mining claims in Madagascar, then get full mining permits and began to develop the asset. The project is 50 kms from a world-class port on a paved road. The graphite is hosted in loose material called Saprolite. The capex is much lower (maybe 90% lower) than hard rock projects found in North America. The Opex will also lower. Negative strip ratio. Dynamite crushing and grinding steps are skipped. Labor is pennies per hour. Already ahead of all the other wannabees in North America? This could happen fast.
3) DNI is working with another company that has a team of sales people, DNI sources the graphite and gets paid as middleman/wholesaler. In 2015 DNI shipped 22 tonnes, the goal for 2016 is 3,500 tonnes and for 2017 the goal is 10,000 tonnes.
4) DNI acquisition: fully permitted 37K SgFt Lab and Test Facilities, will save DNI time and money plus can be used to upgrade DNI and other customers graphite to produce micronized or battery grade spherical grade graphite. Currently cash flowing with lots of spare capacity. Should close before the end of December. Best part, because your waiting for the dilution your not going to see. This was 75% financed by a major bank and lender take back (check check check) What $1.5M USD MC company finances nearly twice its MC without equity financing?. There is currently $3 Million offering for working capital and upgrades.
Ive been DDing this for about 9 months. Lot of progress coming. DNI is systematically and strategically building an industrial minerals mining company. Nobody knows this company yet. These guys are sharp and going to get it done. Graphite traders going to be asking, where did DNI come from? 2016 going to have a lot more progress. Mark it.
http://dnimetals.com/presentations/
http://www.newswire.ca/news/dni-metals-inc
Do your own DD
Checkmate28
DNI.v DNI Metals +120% (Graphite developer, wholesaler and almost with BANK FINANCED lab facility. Still at about a $3 Million Market cap set to bump cash flow and profits.
I spoke with mgt and was impressed with the character, knowledge and experience the mgt has (check). They laid out a plan and have followed it to a tee and then some (check). Plenty of shares have been available at a $ 2Million (Canadian$) market cap valuation.
DNI has 3-4 current and coming revenue sources.
1) DNI METALS INC. (DNI : TSX-V)
FOR RELEASE – March 23, 2015
DNI Metals Inc. (“DNI”) announces today that it has entered into an 5 year supply agreement of natural flake graphite concentrate, to Great Lakes Graphite Inc. (“GLK”)
What other North american graphite company is selling graphite now? And from a $2Million MC valuation. More offtake agreements/revenue should be forth coming here. These relationships will pave the way to off takes from their Madagascar property.
2) DNI was able to buy mining claims in Madagascar, then get full mining permits and began to develop the asset. The project is 50 kms from a world-class port on a paved road. The graphite is hosted in loose material called Saprolite. The capex is much lower (maybe 90% lower) than hard rock projects found in North America. The Opex will also lower. Negative strip ratio. Dynamite crushing and grinding steps are skipped. Labor is pennies per hour. Already ahead of all the other wannabees in North America? This could happen fast.
3) DNI is working with another company that has a team of sales people, DNI sources the graphite and gets paid as middleman/wholesaler. In 2015 DNI shipped 22 tonnes, the goal for 2016 is 3,500 tonnes and for 2017 the goal is 10,000 tonnes.
4) DNI acquisition: fully permitted 37K SgFt Lab and Test Facilities, will save DNI time and money plus can be used to upgrade DNI and other customers graphite to produce micronized or battery grade spherical grade graphite. Currently cash flowing with lots of spare capacity. Should close before the end of December. Best part, because your waiting for the dilution your not going to see. This was 75% financed by a major bank and lender take back (check check check) What $1.5M USD MC company finances nearly twice its MC without equity financing?. There is currently a non dilutive extra $3 Million offering for working capital and upgrades.
Ive been DDing this for about 9 months. Lot of progress coming. DNI is systematically and strategically building an industrial minerals mining company. Nobody knows this company yet. These guys are sharp and going to get it done. Graphite traders going to be asking, where did DNI come from? 2016 going to have a lot more progress. Mark it.
http://dnimetals.com/presentations/
http://www.newswire.ca/news/dni-metals-inc
Checkmate28
Do your DD
JMHO
DNI.v DNI Metals +120% Breaking this out to Value Microcaps today. I apologize! 2 days ago it was important to debut the story I've been DD' since PDAC while shares were available to you at .06 .. I thought interested parties could chip away cheap before DNI closes the financing in Dec while there is also tax loss selling pressure on the market. I have been feeding Dr Air :) multiple emails for 3 months with info nudging him to get in on the ground floor and see if his views were as mine, plus He could kick me in the arse if there were red flags. I Didnt see +120% coming and didnt mean for this to come after the bump. Just buried at work.
I met this company at PDAC in a meeting. Immediately I was impressed with the character, knowledge and experience the mgt has (check). They laid out a plan and have followed it to a tee and then some (check). Plenty of shares have been available at a $ 2Million (Canadian$) market cap valuation.
DNI has 3-4 current and coming revenue sources.
1) DNI METALS INC. (DNI : TSX-V)
FOR RELEASE – March 23, 2015
DNI Metals Inc. (“DNI”) announces today that it has entered into an 5 year supply agreement of natural flake graphite concentrate, to Great Lakes Graphite Inc. (“GLK”)
What other North american graphite company is selling graphite now? And from a $2Million MC valuation. More offtake agreements/revenue should be forth coming here. These relationships will pave the way to off takes from their Madagascar property.
2) DNI was able to buy mining claims in Madagascar, then get full mining permits and began to develop the asset. The project is 50 kms from a world-class port on a paved road. The graphite is hosted in loose material called Saprolite. The capex is much lower (maybe 90% lower) than hard rock projects found in North America. The Opex will also lower. Negative strip ratio. Dynamite crushing and grinding steps are skipped. Labor is pennies per hour. Already ahead of all the other wannabees in North America? This could happen fast.
3) DNI is working with another company that has a team of sales people, DNI sources the graphite and gets paid as middleman/wholesaler. In 2015 DNI shipped 22 tonnes, the goal for 2016 is 3,500 tonnes and for 2017 the goal is 10,000 tonnes.
4) DNI acquisition: fully permitted 37K SgFt Lab and Test Facilities, will save DNI time and money plus can be used to upgrade DNI and other customers graphite to produce micronized or battery grade spherical grade graphite. Currently cash flowing with lots of spare capacity. Should close before the end of December. Best part, because your waiting for the dilution your not going to see. This was 75% financed by a major bank and lender take back (check check check) What $2 Million MC company finances nearly twice its MC without equity financing?. There is currently a non dilutive extra $3 Million offering for working capital and upgrades.
Lot of progress coming. DNI is systematically and strategically building an industrial minerals mining company. Nobody knows this company yet. These guys are sharp and going to get it done. Graphite traders going to be asking, where did DNI come from? 2016 going to have a lot more progress. Mark it.
You can Call Dan Weir, President & CEO, 416-595-1125 for more info
http://dnimetals.com/presentations/
http://www.newswire.ca/news/dni-metals-inc
Checkmate28
JMHO
Timmins Gold TGD: Unfortunately, The End Is Near Dec. 1, 2015
Just sharing here I subscribe to Hard Asset Investments
Timmins Gold recently reported third-quarter 2015 financial results.
The company reported a $226.5 million impairment charge and just $900,000 in operating cash flow.
Timmins is running out of cash and has a $10.2 million loan facility maturing at the end of December.
If gold prices don't rise sharply soon, I doubt Timmins will survive in 2016. A few poor moves have doomed the company in my opinion. Full story below
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3725266-timmins-gold-unfortunately-the-end-is-near?app=1&auth_param=sqob:1b5s60u:fea317948d82949a02524e3206daf3c4&uprof=44
Trader, I dont have a sure answer to that. The company has assured me, they have enough current cash to make progress and survive into 2017 if they had to. Future gold price surely surely will play into this. Thing is , the capex is so low, they could pull a lot of that money back from the sample even at these low gold prices. In a sense the loan could be like collateralized.
Another tidbit, pre feas specifies a certain tonnage for the bulk sample. They are going to use the ore sorter. If it works as tested twice already, they'll get a large bump from pre feas numbers. Also those pre feas numbers we're done on reserves and not the 1.2 million oz high grade resource. So in the finance meetings, the big question might be, can they convince the financers these couple points have actual benefit? $20 million to get the whole job done might happen in this market. AISC is near $850 without these 2 considerations. Insiders been pushing money in. Took down most of the last financing with the warrants. Also Check the latest one.
Traderfan GWA.v Gowest 52 week high. Could be permits are about to officially be filed and that would mean a financing deal could be right around the corner. One thing for sure sellers are few. If the horizon was gloomy, ASK would be lower. Low CAPEX cash flow . Great concept these days. Thumbs up.
CPTMatt re SAS.t I agree with your comment and I personally don't think this deal will hold. SAS should realize the same premium just off the new production from Taylor. Taylor will be higher grade and won't have the royalty overhang that the current production has, plus it starts this quarter. I don't see how anybody can be happy with this deal and I think it will either either be bid up or rejected. Maybe Kirtland thought they would strike before this production is realised in the financials and shareholders got a grasp of the situation. Vacationing in Akumal beach MX so service is a little etchy. Been fun reading but a chore to get anything out.
SAS.t Up nice today on offer from Kirkland Lake Gold
I didn't see this coming. I think their is a good chance we see Primero come in and up the offer.
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aSAS-2326186&symbol=SAS®ion=C
Immediate premium to St. Andrew shareholders of 46 per cent based on the 20-day volume-weighted average closing prices of both companies and a 25-per-cent premium to St. Andrew's closing price on Nov. 16, 2015;
Dr Air Orvana ORV.T I was going to ask you what your feeling were towards Orvana and the $1200 AISC as I'm not so intimate with this company and I bought the shares with you. Instead I quick called Joanne from IR and I'll report my trinkets of info then ask for your feelings.
I was concerned with their ability to bring costs down should base metals and gold continue to fall near $1000. I also confirmed the costs were in US dollars. Thats a yes. Her answer was that transition plan of moving people and resources from Carlés to Boinás was taking longer than expected for the new crew to get a handle on. I pulled the following from the Q2 update for reference.
The Carlés Mine at EVBC was placed on care and maintenance in February to optimize production at the ongoing Boinás Mine at EVBC and focus on producing only profitable ounces. As part of the transition plan of people and resources from Carlés to Boinás, optimization initiatives include the reorganization of the underground mine production teams and the replacement of the oxides mining contractor with the production crews from Carlés in April 2015. Other planned productivity initiatives include the centralization of the various spread-out supplies and materials warehouses. These initiatives are expected to yield results in the second half of fiscal 2015.
The cash position was undoubtedly compromised and we will get an update in early to mid Dec when Q4 numbers come out. They are working on a contingency plan, should gold drop below $1000 and she could not comment further. They put the following year guidance out normally in Feb so we can expect 2016 guidance than. With the new share price and reduced Cash, its possible they could be trading near zero EV.
Checkmate28
Excellon Reports Third Quarter 2015 Financial Results
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=80575695&qm_symbol=EXN
While they lost money this quarter, this report clearly presents the path Excellon is on. Trading now near 1x next years CF
Production costs decreased to $3.7 million during the period from $6.4 million in Q3 2014 and $4.0 million in Q2 2015, primarily due to improved maintenance practices and costs for pumps and mobile equipment in 2015, despite similar tonnes mined and milled. These improvements resulted in significantly lower production costs per tonne of $242/t in Q3 2015 compared with $455/t in Q3 2014, reflecting a 47% cost improvement.
Additional cost saving initiatives are currently being implemented for the remainder of the year and expected to continue into 2016.
Total cash cost per silver ounce payable was $11.58/oz in Q3 2015 (Q3 2014 - $15.52/oz), while AISC per silver ounce payable also decreased to $15.76 in Q3 2015 (Q3 2014 - $25.77), primarily due to lower total cash costs, significant reductions in general and administration cost and capital expenditures. The Company expects costs to improve significantly as higher grade areas of the mine are accessed and further cost reductions are realized in the operation.
The net result of the Optimization plan should give EXN yearly production of 4 million Silver equivalent oz with AISC near $9/oz and allow them significant cash flow even at todays prices.
Details of the optimization plan in the link below. Note that True CAPEX is down 40% and OPEX is down significantly due to electricity costs being down 50%
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=75863271&qm_symbol=EXN
The optimization plan is fully paid for and will be fully implemented during 2016. Current progress of the plan has helped bring costs down significantly already. Additionally, Excellon is entering much higher grade ore in the 1200+gpt AgEq area. This is the highest grade ore I know of in Mexico.
PEA shows net $59Million cash flow for years 2016 - 2019 $17Ag. While were not at $17 Silver, true costs are lower and should present a wash. Thats $15M/year and my case for EXN Trading now near 1x next years CF.
Applying 6x CF to todays share price translates to $1.80/share
SAS.t News! Best value in class. For 121M Market Cap, you get a company with:
3 Million Au oz Resource
$26M Cash
Successfully Cash flowed pos. 16 qtr straight
Guiding bet 130k -150k 2016 production (+50% from 2015)
Has a $200 M tax credit
Has great chance for buyout from Primero who borders SAS
Safe Jurisdiction Ontario
Todays News
TORONTO, Nov. 5, 2015 /CNW/ - St Andrew Goldfields Ltd. (TSX-SAS) (OTCQX-STADF), ("SAS" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines ("MNDM") have accepted the Taylor Mine Production Closure Plan and, as a result, the Company is now able to put the Taylor Mine ("Taylor") into commercial production.
"We are pleased to declare Taylor the newest mine in Ontario, one which we anticipate will bolster the Company's gold production profile for 2016 by 40,000-50,000 ounces and provide much needed jobs and economic benefits to the communities of the region. I would personally like to thank the SAS team, the Provincial Government officials, the First Nations and our communities for their hard work and support in helping us bring Taylor into reality. The mine is expected to be a significant contributor in the future as we are ramping up to full production by the end of this year" said Duncan Middlemiss, President and Chief Executive Officer of SAS. "With the addition of Taylor to the portfolio of producing assets, we are also pleased to raise our 2015 full year production guidance to between 100,000 and 110,000 ounces of gold with the Taylor Mine contributing 10,000 to 15,000 ounces of gold for the balance of 2015.
EXN.T Excellon Resources. Trading at $17MC. I would call this Great buy today. I dont think the market sees where this is going. Todays financing was more than fair for a the $6 Million they need to fully pay for their de-watering project. They are going to tackle it for good and this turn around will happen fast.
First off, they projected needing $10M for the dewatering project. They now say $6M will do the entire project. The new IRR will be over 100% based on similar metals price today.
1,231 g/t Ag (1,766 g/t AgEq Thats almost 70 US ounces per ton.
The Company is currently accessing the periphery of the high-grade 623 Manto, hosting mineral resources of 83,000 tonnes at 1,231 g/t Ag (1,766 g/t AgEq), which is expected to reach full production during 2016 as ramps providing full access to the manto are completed.
Optimization Project: PEA Highlights
Base case of $17/oz silver, $0.90/lb lead, $1.00/lb zinc
2016 - 2019
$58.4 million cumulative net after-tax cash flow
• $6.02 average total cash cost per payable silver ounce
• $9.00 average all-in sustaining cost per payable silver ounce
They should be producing at $4Million AuEg oz very profitably somewhere mid 2016. The increased cash flow will allow them to follow up their drilling program that could change the company in a bigger way.
Checkmate28
Carlisle Alamos Gowest
Just like I see GORO and RIC as being two strong high value companys with near equal value, and near term growth potential. I would buy either on a down day. I always compared Carlisle and Gowest the same way. They are both high value explorer/developers that I thought would be the next producers in the Abitibi Onterio region. Carlisle was always out front 6mths time wise. I watched what progress and news did to the CGJ share price.
Gowest is a company that could get taken out at a large premium or have a huge increase in share price. All they need is a share holder friendly $10M financing, to make their cash flowing production reality. This wuld fund the bulk sample that will set in motion, a path to the production specified in the pre feas. Once in production, they would be cash flowing $10 million yearly on just 40k ounces per year at $1200 gold with a mid $800 AISC. This would path a short way to 100,000 yearly production, as the pre feas is based only on proven reserves and not the 1.5 Million high grade ounces in the resource. Gowests resource sits on only 1% of their total land package that I believe will be home to one of the best new gold camps in the Timmins area. Bottom line here, is another 6 - 12 months and Gowest should be a story. The risk here is that they dont get a fair $10 million finance deal. My guess is they will come up with something creative with one of their processing partners or the Chinese Future Fortune company that has been plugging in millions along the way. Shoot, there has to be private investors living in Timmins that could fund that amount. They could use the bulk sample proceeds as collateral.
As to the Carlisle Alamos deal - +100% premium to the 30 day weighted volume average speaks of how low these companys are trading. CGJ Currently trading at a fair .62, being about the offering price of .0942 x AGI shares that are trading at $6.15. You get the 3 year warrants as a premium for free.
St. Andrew Goldfields (SAS.TO) I just added after reading this piece and reminding me all the good reasons to own SAS. I was hoping to get a lower share price before Taylor comes on line, but I don't think I'll get the chance. The author who wrote the below text wrote a 20 page document that can be found on the stockhouse link provided on the bottom. I've been long on SAS for a couple years due to the disconnect of the current share price and the current and future valuations I can see.
St. Andrew Goldfields (SAS.TO)
St. Andrew Goldfields is a Canadian junior gold miner with two producing underground mines, Holt and Holloway, and a third mine, Taylor, set to begin commercial production in 4Q15. All three mines are located in the Timmins district of Ontario, Canada.
[SEE FULL INVESTMENT THESIS FOR VALUATION DETAIL IMAGE]
Thesis
St. Andrew’s common stock represents a compelling risk/reward opportunity. SAS trades at a material discount to the sum of discounted future free cash flows at spot gold (US$1,120 currently) using onerously conservative assumptions. There are several upcoming catalysts, including the start of commercial production at the company’s third mine in 4Q15, which are likely to narrow the valuation gap. A low cost of production, a favorable U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate, a substantial net cash position and material insider ownership, coupled with the wide discount to intrinsic valuation, provide a margin of safety.
SAS trades at a material discount to intrinsic valuation.
Incorporating only current proven and probable reserve ounces (a reserve burndown scenario), the net present value of future production at the Holt Mine alone is worth $0.32/share, 30% more than SAS’s current enterprise value. SAS has consistently been able to not only replace but grow Holt’s reserves.
Incorporating DCFs from SAS’s two other mines and including corporate overhead burden suggests a 79% upside to the current stock price.
Giving credit for SAS’s exploration assets (using a per resource ounce multiple)suggests an 111% upside.
Despite St. Andrew’s small size, SAS is one of the lower risk companies in the mining sector with a conservative, cash-rich balance sheet, a low cost of production which produces consistent free cash flow and many years of reserves at its flagship Holt Mine.
Based solely upon current reserves, the Holt Mine will produce for approximately the next eight years. Since acquiring Holt and ramping up production, SAS has actually increased the mine’s reserves despite recovering more 200K ounces over the last five years. Recent results have been strong, highlighted by 2014 where SAS replaced 270% of the tonnes mined at Holt during the year which increased reserves by 25% YoY. The company has significant additional opportunities to add to reserves. Resource ounces, exclusive of reserves, are 2.6x greater than reserve ounces.
[SEE FULL INVESTMENT THESIS FOR HOLT HISTORICAL RESERVES VS. PRODUCTION IMAGE]
SAS’s C$24.1MM net cash balance represents 21% of the company’s current market capitalization.
St. Andrew produced C$6.6MM of FCF in 1H15 even while funding the development of the Taylor Mine. Excluding Taylor CAPEX, SAS generated C$9.3MM of FCF in 1H15. Annualized, SAS is trading at less than 5x EV/FCF (or 4.4x LTM FCF).
St. Andrew produced more than 47K ounces of gold in 1H15 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$951 per ounce. While there is rightly some controversy about the manipulation of this non-standardized metric throughout the industry, given SAS’s net cash position (no interest expense) and NOLs (no taxes), this metric is roughly equivalent to the company’s breakeven price. There are few Canadian or U.S.-based miners who can produce at such a low cost at the consolidated company level.
SAS’s $200MM+ of future tax deductions to offset future income taxes will ensure continued strong FCF conversion going forward.
All three of St. Andrew’s mines are located in Ontario. The mining-friendly province is consistently ranked by mining executives as one of the most attractive jurisdictions in the world. In addition, SAS has benefited greatly from the decline in the Canadian dollar in U.S. dollar terms which is now at 11-year lows. Revenues are in U.S. dollars while the majority of expenditures are made in the weaker Canadian dollar. The significant decline in the price of gold in recent years has had much less of an impact on the Canadian miners.
[SEE FULL INVESTMENT THESIS FOR HISTORICAL PRICES OF GOLD IN USD AND CAD TERMS]
Substantial insider ownership, ~41%, ensures shareholder-focused capital allocation decisions.
There are multiple catalysts to narrow the valuation discount even at current gold prices.
Commercial-production will be declared at SAS’s newest mine, Taylor, early in 4Q15.
Taylor will likely add 10K-12K ounces of production in the fourth quarter alone, bringing SAS’s total production from a 23.6K ounce quarterly average in 1H15 to ~34K ounces in 4Q15. Taylor’s reserves grade out ~50% higher than the ore SAS processed in 2014. With Taylor’s full year contribution, SAS’s total production is expected to reach ~125K ounces in 2016 vs. 91K ounces in 2014.
SAS will likely increase guidance when 3Q15 earnings are released.
Updated resource estimates released in 1Q16 will likely show a significant increase in reserves and resources at all three mines.
Research coverage initiations will bring more investors to the name.
This opportunity exists because even for a micro-cap, Canadian-listed commodity producer, the degree that SAS is underfollowed by the sell-side and investors in general is astounding. There are a number of Canadian brokers who have traditionally devoted a great deal of equity research resources to junior gold producers, especially those based in Canada. Up until a small firm called Mackie Research initiated on SAS in July 2015 (target price = C$0.60), St. Andrew had lacked any research coverage for many years. The reason is simple and likely driven by the investment banking side of the brokerage business: (1) SAS’s net cash position and FCF production has meant it is unlikely to raise capital, and (2) the company has chosen to reinvest capital internally, whether it is in Taylor or in its multiple exploration opportunities, in lieu of M&A. Ironically enough, the qualities which make SAS such a poor prospect for banking fees are partly what make the company an attractive investment. I believe the title of Mackie’s SAS initiation does a good job encapsulating the company’s current situation, “St. Andrew: A Stealth Producer in Plain Sight.”
Before I dig in, I would like to preface it with the following: I’m not a ‘gold bug.’ I don’t think that gold must inevitably rise to some US$5,000+ per ounce price because central banks have irreparably debased their currencies. I don’t believe that the price of gold has only fallen from its 2011 high because those same central banks are manipulating the commodity’s trading to hide rampant inflation and the fact that they have long since sold off all of their gold reserves to China and Russia. I kid here a bit, but I recognize that the typical mining article (precious metals in particular, gold even more so) relies upon some higher commodity price assumption and some absurd multiple of NPV or ounces in the ground to justify valuation (if valuation is even discussed).
In this situation, I think St. Andrew trades at a significant discount to even the most conservative estimates of future free cash flow. Even as a commodity producer, SAS has multiple qualities such as a low cost of production and a sizeable net cash position which make it a safe investment. I believe there are several upcoming catalysts which will narrow the discount to intrinsic value in the near future. In any event, I think that SAS is such an unknown name in an unloved industry and the discount to fair value is so wide, simply getting eyeballs on the name is enough to bridge much of the discount.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.sas/st-andrew-goldfields-ltd#ReXUtqjlvr60ykUt.99
Trader Re GWA.V Gowest. As you probably know, Gowest recently had their mine closure plan filed by the ministry including the assurance $ escrowed plus completed the successful prefeasibility study, showing they can produce 40k oz per year with AISC 0f $891 at $1200 gold for an initial CAPEX of only $21 Million. All the other permits should flow in like domino's next 30 -90 days. They needed those filed to secure financing for the bulk sample and process agreements that will come next.
So we wait for either the finance agreement or it wouldn't surprise me to see a JV or another whole new surprise. I would welcome a JV with a cash flowing company such as the neighbor Lakeshore buying in.
Lot of items still up in the air, but in my mind you can count on these 2 things. The quality of the resource will pull in a fair financing deal and this mgt, being large share holders themselves, will get the best deal possible for share holders. Also the pre feas was based on the small proven and probable that GWA has and theirfore only supports 40k per year in the study but there are 2 million high grade oz at Frankfield alone that will change the dynamics once they are underground cash flowing. That 2 million oz sits on just 1% of their property that has 17 other targets some partially delineated all in Timmins Onterio who produced nearly 25% of all past Canadian production. In the past, there property was unable to be explored due to the overburden on top of the rock. Recent geophysic tech has provided access to the targets that previously could not be found.
I think their still to small and considered to risky to be on most radars. Through my eyes, I see very low risk and high reward at this Market cap OF $13MIL. Insitu gold is valued well below $10/ounce. They will produce profitably with a minuscule CAPEX.
Checkmate28
Green all over today. We missed SA at $3.50 last week. Knew it was a screaming buy. Now $5.75