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Pitcook, I'm not sure that these tests make or break the company. The material they were using last year was not inadequate. If the new material doesn't pass the stress tests, they will alter it.
I forget who here said it, they deserve some credit. Something along the lines of Lebby being the type to delay business progress in the pursuit of perfection. We might be experiencing something like that now.
Yes, the answers contain useful information. I think you are probably correct.
So the point being, sucks that it takes longer, but we don't want investors assuming results should be out and when they don't hear anything taking it as negative when really they aren't even ready yet.
I thought the replies were vague regarding the testing timeline. They purposefully do not want to answer questions that will tell you when tests started or will be finished. I don't understand why they are cagey about that topic. As you can see I was told the tests are "a standard practice" so I would think the time it normally takes to complete doesn't need to be kept a secret from shareholders.
My impression from the slightly awkward wording is that they are concerned about being perceived as stagnant until the testing is finished. I wasn't worried about that personally. If several companies are now waiting for this data, they will all get it at the same time. That could make things get interesting very quickly.
I guess they did not learn their lesson from December. When, because of lack of clarity, there was anxiety over the stock dropping while we were expecting news on device testing. In reality, there were no issues and it was just time to tap LPC. These scenarios hurt investors via that additional dilution they create.
Here is the email exchange, everyone should read this.
ME: I am uncertain about the testing hours. 2k/5k. Did testing hours begin soon after you announced the new material or was the new equipment you mentioned for testing 100gb required before you could begin testing? I'm trying to assess the timeline.
Lightwave: This testing was described by a board member to give an example of common expectations and practices that explain why not everything can be accelerated by working harder. For telecom/datacom optics, this is a standard practice and so these sorts of timescales are typical.
But it is not a simple one time start, pass the time and then end. So I can say we have started but you should not infer that 5000 hours later we are done for good. Equally, it is incorrect to infer that we cannot do anything else until these 2000 or 5000 hours are done. Our goal is not to check off a piece of paperwork, our goal is to build confidence in the platform.
ME: You mentioned during the presentation that Lightwave recently obtained new equipment to test at higher speeds, was this needed for the 2k/5k testing? Should we expect a future press release when the 2k testing is finished?
Response: The high speed equipment is not specifically tied to the 2000 hours testing.
ME: Were we able to begin the testing without that high-speed equipment?
No Reply to that question.
I will post it later from my computer, but the reply is, I thought, purposefully vague and was crafted to answer the numerous questions they're already receiving on this topic without providing a concrete timeline.
I emailed Lebby about the 2-5k hours. They are not a straight shot test so we can't add and subtract days to set our expectations.
It's gotten noticably more quiet here. Kindergarten vacation started already?
Ayar hasn't even started their 2k and 5k testing yet!
Prices could rebound to $1.20 over the course of the year ‘without breaking a sweat’: analyst
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coffee-futures-may-jump-over-20-by-year-end-with-global-surplus-expected-to-turn-into-a-deficit-2019-03-08
AFP/Getty Images
Coffee futures may see a significant rise this year with a potential deficit in global coffee supplies
Author photo
By
MYRA
P. SAEFONG
MARKETS/COMMODITIES REPORTER
Coffee has fallen below a dollar a pound to trade close to its lowest level in more than a decade, but a global glut that pushed prices down for the past two years may finally come to an end in 2019.
“The coffee market is fighting a war on a few different fronts at the moment,” says John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Brazil’s 2018 bumper crop, which produced a record 62 million 60 kilogram bags of Arabica and Robusta coffee, has pushed prices to multiyear lows—well below the cost of production for most farmers, he says.
Futures prices US:KCK9 settled at 96.80 cents a pound on Feb. 26 on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. That was the lowest finish for a most-active contract since September, when prices hit a daily settlement of 95.85 cents—the lowest since late July 2006. Prices ended the past two years with a loss and, at 98.50 cents on Thursday, were nearly 4% lower year to date.
For now, “favorable near-term weather for what is expected to be an ‘off year’ for coffee production has put a damper on prices to start out 2019,” says Caruso. After a big production year, coffee trees produce a bit less the following year as they recover. “The slump in the Brazilian real versus the [U.S. dollar] has also put pressure on the market, as the two are highly correlated,” he says. Coffee is globally priced in dollars. When the real weakens against the dollar, that encourages Brazilian farmers to export more coffee to the world market, he says. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer.
Global commodities brokerage Marex Spectron estimates total global coffee supplies at 172.3 million bags for the 2018-19 marketing year, with demand estimated at 164.4 million. That points to a surplus of 7.9 million bags. An early global output estimate from Marex shows a decline to 166.9 million bags and a rise in demand to 168.1 million for 2019-20—a supply deficit of 1.2 million bags. Marex Spectron analysts also point out that “underlying demand remains healthy, growing at 2% to 2.5% per annum.” Current prices are below the cost of production for many growers “washed,” or wet processed, Arabica coffee, which will “have an impact on production levels.”
Caruso says the cost of production for most farmers stands at $1.20 to $1.50, so with prices at sub-$1 levels, he also sees a possible supply deficit on deck. “I love coffee from a value standpoint,” he says. “We think that any little catalyst—whether it be weather related, currency related, or even short covering from its massive net speculative short position of 63,000 contracts, could create a buying spree for value hunters.” Prices could rebound to $1.20 over the course of the year “without breaking a sweat,” he says.
Prices may still have room to drop further, however, notes Jack Scoville, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. He see prices possibly falling to lower-90-cent or upper-80-cent levels by midsummer. “But then we should start to recover” with the threat of reduced production creating at least a short covering rally. Price increases are likely to “eventually” be passed on to consumers, though they “rarely have an immediate effect,” says Caruso. Worldwide coffee consumption is rising, and there’s potential for a supply deficit by year-end, so a “price bump in your $3 morning coffee would be on the way.”
For investors, Caruso says he likes the ICE traded futures contract, the world benchmark for Arabica coffee. Investors may also consider the iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return exchange-traded note JO, +3.77% and the iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN.
I don't know about Ayar's Tech vs Lightwave. They did a nice job sourcing funding https://ayarlabs.com/press1/
They certainly appear to be a real company.
It probably wasn't included in the presentation because it sounds like a long wait and it would generate questions they do not want to answer. Siraj just blurted it out during the Q&A. I'm glad to know. Lebby's strong emphasis on "More Data Needed" was too open-ended for my taste. I think it's better not to leave investors imaginations to run wild...
I took care of my grand father last summer after his live in aide quit. He's 91 with dementia. After 3 months he was finally admitted to a Veterans home. We expected problems but he seems really happy there, happier than he was in his own home. All the activity going on around him has improved his cognitive function.
Good luck with your mother. Bring donuts or something nice for the staff when you visit. That goes a long way
I am gradually building a position in JJOFF. If anyone comes in here please reply to one of my posts so I get an alert.
It's difficult to find useful information so any input on staying a step agead is appreciated.
Thanks for this post, I believe we met at last years lab tour. Did you see the testing going on in the lab while you were there?
Fish, unless you're in a tax-free account, selling in the low .80s doesn't help you much. Maybe you can grab some .65 shares before the next run-up, but you'll reset your longterm gains timeline. Kind of a wash, and maybe you don't ever get the price you want to re-buy.
I didn't hear anything that would make me want to sell at these prices.
Hey, can you ballpark for me how many guests attended? It is a pleasure to speak with or just observe intelligent conversations between guys like Leonberger, Miller, Siraj etc. They have a wealth of knowledge and perspective, sometimes their candor will surprise you.
A few of those sales were investors who heard Tom Zelibor announce himself as the CEO at the beginning. I almost hit the bid after that. LOL
I agree. Some, myself included, will just need to taper expectations on how soon a partner will step in. Every company interested in more reliability data will all be receiving it at the same time. That may be when things finally start to get exciting for shareholders.
What?? You suggested the reliability data from last year applies to the device with new material. That does not seem to be the case.
Dust continues to collect on the Champagne.
We have new material since then
it's over
It is disappointing that this will probably leave the stock to go through another LPC induced down cycle.
I'm glad any delays are not from shortcomings with their material/devices, if we are being asked for this data then there is interest.
If they would spend the time, this is a great stage for a better investor to step in and support the company.
Lebby gave the presentation that we wanted. Seems that things are going well.
There was quite a lot of emphasis on needing more reliability data for potential customers. This is what we will be waiting for before we see something happen with a customer. I think our first partnership will be with whoever is willing to accept the most risk.
I would have liked to been given an idea of how long it will take to collect this reliability data.
edit: oh, just got an answer. 2000 and 5000 hours. 83 and 208 days. Quite a bit more waiting.
Interesting video on 5G concerns. Not the current administration, but I can see politicians getting overly involved in tech progression in the future.
Not sure if this video was discussed on here. I didn't see the Chairman of Nordmin speaking on behalf of any other companies
As a mod, there are no real credentials required, other than having a handful of posts on the board you wish to moderate. To get that spot here they had to get another mod kicked off. It was quite a messy situation at the time.
ETRF just handles sales for retail investors.
Engineering firms still waiting for payment?
Mark forgoing salary?
Sharks are circling. Would be nice if Lebby pulls something off to leave everyone looking for .60s empty handed.
I don't know if the shares go out a little every day like that. I think they, LPC, create the trading rages. We would not hit $1.30 without LPC. They need periods like that to unload the shares they buy and hold at lower prices.
They really need an investor who will hold over 5% of the shares and not sell for a while so the stock can stand on its own with less headwind.
My other spec stock found a better investor who purchased all the shares held by the current investor, as well as doing a large placement with their own clients. It wasn't an instant process but it brought in a lot of new investors and the stock has done very well since. It isn't impossible.
Uh yea, we did. Common knowledge for people in the know. It was discussed on a company conference call back in 2013/2014 if I recall correctly. It put a halt on something Lightwave was working on.
Sorry if I'm always getting in the way of the gilding process some want to put Tom, Jim and LPC through.
Are you talking about dead end Lou Bintz?
Investors are so lucky Fred Leonberger brought Lebby to us, where would the stock be without him? When Tom lost his own security clearance I really started to have my doubts. I agree, they could put someone better in the chairman role.
All these posts are great. I will defend PhotonicsGuy because he runs a successful business in a relevant field, his insights are uniquely valuable.
I wouldn't worry about a drop today after the recession bucking tear the market went on under Trump's PRO Business administration. I remember the DIJA futures tanking election night when it was obvious that Wall Streets pre-paid shill wasn't going to win. I like unplanned volatility, it creates opportunity.
Good work with SGMO. Most of us are here to make money. I am a bit glad that LWLG isn't coincidentally trading well going into the meeting. MGMT will deal with more candor from their investors. The last update with an homage to Lincoln Park as our current funding source suggests they need a reality check.
That's unreal.
I had the pick from the owner of that race horse business our ice cube clanking friend knows. Cutting Humor. The betting website crashed 4 times on me. I took it as a sign and passed. Would have been my first bet on a race.
Someone always knows something. I call that "outside information". It's not insider info, but it's not something most people know.