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The report I received was that the groundbreaking scheduled for October 1st was at a different site that ran into problems with the municipality that were going to delay things. Management then selected a site they were looking at as a contincency (Cowichan Lake, BC) so that they could proceed with fulfilling their contract with LG. I just wish the press releases explained these setbacks instead of being only filled with more promises. It's like a used car salesman selling a "great car" when the one that was just sold and driven off the lot had a flat tire. It's difficult believe that the new car being sold won't suffer the same fate unless someone explains it was just a nail in the tire.
As far as the deal with the Nicola Band of Indians, I never received a response to that question. Stock Legends was going to ask that question in the interview.
Phillip
I sort of like the quiet. The hundreds of price predictions every minute get a little old and are always wrong.
Phillip
Are you talking about the Nicola Band of Indians power plant or the one that was supposed to start October 1, 2011? I got an answer for the second one, but never got an answer to the first one.
I agree, the short term spikes are exciting and I've admittedly bought more when I probably shouldn't have without setting a stop loss, but this is a long term investment. I think the company loses credibility with the press releases that seem to be geared at pumping the stock. My only comfort in analyzing these releases is that if this was a pump and dump scam, they would have done it a long time ago instead of waiting years since VHMIF. I suppose they could always find the need to do a P&D to raise capital for construction, but at the prices we're looking at, I doubt they could raise 1% of what they need for construction. Honestly though, I don't want to see any press releases for groundbreaking until they know for sure and can back it up with their permits in hand.
And they may not have purchased it yet. My recollection was the press release said they had an agreement to purchase. If they were smart, the purchase agreement would be contingent upon being able to obtain permits, subdivide, and rezone. We've bought land at work with similar provisions. The attorneys had a good time drafting that language and a half dozen addendums to the agreement.
Phillip
Did this come from Jim?
Phillip
From the Canada article, Jim was quoted below so it does sound like it needs to be rezoned so this jives with my discovery that it currently isn't zoned as industrial.
"We've agreed on a price for the land purchase; now it has to be subdivided and rezoned. I actually just had a brief conversation with a fellow from the regional district this morning," Carroll said.
Phillip
Possibly, but the site I found was based on circumstantial evidence such as being next to satillite dishes, due west of town, next to a saw mill, and next to Meade Creek. This site fits all of those characteristics, but there was also mention in one of the articles that the site selected was also industrial because there weren't enough industrial sites in town. So, in the end, I could be wrong. It could also be posible that a portion of the land purchased was in the industrial area next door and the plant will be sited there. I dunno. This is where I wish we had details instead of vague press releases talking about how much money they will make once they execute the "business plan". This is where I've struggled with trusting the company. I'd like to see a website update showing pictures and vicinity maps of the site(s), a site plan of what they're doing, and process and instrumentation drawings. I think that could be done without giving up their intellectual property or trade secrets. Anyway, whenever I email the company their answers help build my confidence, but their press releases have historically left me loosing confidence with the vague promises being made.
Meow . . .
I'm sending them an email.
Phillip
Metrics for valuating BMSPF
I posted this a while back when there were only a half dozen people chatting on this forum, but since we have new eyes, I thought I'd do it again. Promising to make $1 means nothing if you're spending $2, but this is the article that actually got me excited about this stock's potential. Crunch your own numbers and see for yourself.
This link contains the full article, but I quoted the Metrics section below that gave me the meat and potatos I was looking for.
http://biomassdigest.net/blog/2009/12/31/torrefied-wood-a-bio-energy-option-that-is-ready-to-go-a-biomass-digest-special-report/
Metrics and Costs of Torrefaction of Wood Wastes
Torrefaction plants capable of processing between 1,500 gtpd and 2,000 gtpd day of wood waste or 750 tpd to 1,000 tpd of dry chips are estimated to cost between $10 million and $16 million, depending on the technology used. This compares favorably to the $180 million to $250 million a liquid biofuels refinery would cost that is capable of processing the same amount of wood waste.
Metrics and unit cost estimates being presented in this article were developed from data provided by several torrefaction technology providers. The following are some of the key estimates that had been derived:
The costs of acquiring and harvesting and chipping forest residue and pre-commercial thinnings from softwood timberland acreage in South Carolina are expected to range between $22.50/gt and $26/gt and average ~$24.25/gt.
The added cost to transport, clean and dry these green wood chips is expected to increase their value to ~$55/dt.
Torrefaction of dry chips is expected to results in a 20% loss of weight thereby increasing the cost of wood waste used to ~$69/ short ton (st).
The cost of torrefying woody biomass is expected to add ~$5/st.
The BTU content of TW is estimated to be 11,000/st compared to coal that has ~12,000 BTUs/st.
TW is expected to cost ~$80.27, after adjusting to reflect these BTU differentials.
This cost compares favorably to the ~$100/st price of coal now being delivered to industrial plants in South Carolina.
The prices that can now be obtained for TW exported to coal users in countries in Europe in which a carbon tax is imposed is much higher and it is expected that TW can command an average price of ~$262/mt. Because the cost to deliver TW to EU ports is estimated to be ~$80/st, the resulting delivered cost of TW produced in the US is only ~$148/st. This could result in US TW producers earning an average gross margin of ~43% and a potential Return on Investment of ~39%.
I forgot. :) Also what blood type he is.
I would also ask these questions:
- What is the relationship between BMSPF and the work being done at the University of British Columbia?
- What happened to the deal with the Lower Nicola Indian Band?
- With a 30% equity stake being offered in the plants for companies participating in joint ventures, what is the impact on projected margins and what are those companies getting in return for their money?
- What are the terms of the conventional loans?
- Is financing currently in place for construction of Plant 1? 2? 3?
- Can you explain how Mayor Ross was misquoted in the press release about permits taking 30 days when the plant isn't in their municipal boundaries?
- Has the site plan already been completed for Plant 1 along with the design for the wet/dry utilities?
- One of the press releases said that BMSPF will be doing their own logging, but other comments have been made about fiber suppliers. Is BMSPF getting into the logging business?
- Who will oversee construction of each plant?
- My understanding is that there are other companies already producing torrefied wood pellets. How is BMSPF going to keep the competitive edge and are there technological advantages BMSPF will have over the competition?
- What is each officer's role in the company with respect to getting the project built?
- Do you own Rhodesian Ridgebacks? Will they become the BMSPF mascot?
'Found the new plant site.
Quoted from the article:
The Town of Lake Cowichan itself doesn't have much industrial land so the plant would be located west of the town proper, near the satellite site at Meade Creek industrial area.
"We've got the land picked out. It's basically across the street and up the road a little ways from the sawmill. Where the satellite station is, it's the property starting at that fence and coming back," he said.
From the description in the article of its location, I went to Google Earth and found the satellite site near Meade Creek. Go to this link (may need to zoom out a little):
http://maps.google.com/maps/myplaces?hl=en&ll=48.840402,-124.077508&spn=0.006849,0.013025&vpsrc=6&ctz=480&t=h&z=16
You can see the satellites to the north east of the road and the saw mill at the intersection of Youbou Road and the Logging Truck Road.
I wouldn't say I wasn't a believer or I wouldn't still be in this stock since it was VMHIF (since 2002?). Let's just say I wasn't a "firm believer". :) If you're a friend of Jim's, tell him I'm sorry for my pestering emails.
Link to the article:
http://www.canada.com/Pellet+plant+could+create+jobs+Lake/5764900/story.html
I couldn't find the link on the Lake Cowichan Gazette's website.
Perfect!! That is exactly what builds confidence!! I had looked at the Gazette previously and didn't find anything. I've also been looking at the meeting minutes from Cowichan Valley Regional District and the Town of Lake Cowichan, but didn't see anything there either. Having corroboration is better than any of the pumping or press releases combined.
Amen. Whether a pumper or a basher, the baseless statements without the support or rationale behind them get old. If you think the stock will go to $5 or $0, state your basis for your belief. Otherwise your agenda is just way too transparent.
Phillip
Yes, but being informed means more than just accepting what is spoon-fed by the company. I'm glad that you got the answers to some of my questions, but so far with every press release, I've tried to get answers from an unrelated 3rd party to be informed and those answers have never jived with the press releases (further feeding my concern). The Town of Lake Cowichan's answers didn't match the statements of the company, the Mayor was misquoted, this morning the Cowichan Valley Regional District confirmed that permits still haven't been applied for, and even the answer they gave you about annexing their property into the town makes it sound like an additional step that still needs to be worked out unless it is done quickly or post construction.
Anyway, I've been Long on this stock since it was first spun off from FASC and never anticipated making anything off of it. If the company is legitimate and my concerns were for nothing, I would appreciate their efforts and in the end will be the first one to congratulate them on a job well done.
While I agree with most of what you wrote, I do have to commend Stock Legends for posting his full disclosure on his website on being paid to promote BMSPF. What I just don't understand is why his backers or BMSPF feel the need to promote the stock if there isn't another agenda (whether it's to issue more shares, pump and dump, etc). If this is as good of a deal as it's being made out to be, then this stock should sell itself over time. Trying to inflate the price in the short run has me more concerned than the inconsistencies in the press releases. Maybe there's a desire to get off the pink sheets, but with all that is planned, I've got to think there's better things to do than devote time and money into the penny stock and penny stock shareholders. Maybe I'm just a conspiracy theorist. . . . or just overly cautious. . . .
OCR8now, thank you for getting that information. That explains some of the inconsistencies with their press releases.
Phillip
No, the town confirmed it wasn't being built within their boundaries, but in the Cowichan Valley Regional District. The mayor was misquoted not only on the time frame permits would be issued, but the fact that permits weren't even within their jurisdiction. There are just so many inconsistencies in their stories that don't add up. To me it seems like there is just way too much emphasis by the company on pumping the stock than explaining why none of their previous press releases came to fruition. BMSPF paid Francis Gaskins to pump the stock, Evision Holdings paid Stock Legends to pump the stock, and every press release seems to be geared toward telling shareholders how rich they will become. For as busy as they should be with 5 plants in the works, there sure is a lot of time being spent on the stock and its shareholders.
Anyway, I haven't sold any shares, but I'm becoming more skeptical with every press release. I'm looking for a tangible and verifiable press release that actually has some meat.
Phillip
Looks like a pump and dump. Maybe BC shares are restricted from trading, but follow the money behind the pumping. If Evision Holdings paid Stock Legends $9,000 (see very bottom of this link: http://stocklegends.com/disclosure-cms-32), maybe they were doing the pumping and dumping since they are a US company. Question I don't get is how Evision Holdings is related to BMSPF and the timing of the dump coinciding with this not so secret press release that everyone knew about today. Since Stock Legends is a regular poster on I-Hub, maybe he can enlighten us.
Anyway, everything here just smells fishy. Next press release will be that 20 plants will be constructed and Jim has developed the power to kill a yak from 200 yards away with mind bullets.
Evision Holdings - http://www.envisionwaste.net/
BMSPF anticipated working with the University of British Columbia which has done a lot of work on torrefication and biomass storage so a grant could be in the works.
Phillip
Anyone know about Evision Holdings? How are they connected to BMSPF since they paid nearly 10K to have the stock promoted at Stock Legends? Maybe a shareholder also?
Phillip
And to think it wasn't long ago that I bought more shares at $0.01. I normally don't buy penny stocks in my Roth IRA, but I bought more in there at $0.025. Imagine tax free income in retirement.
Everyone I spoke with seemed to know what I was talking about so if there wasn't a plant going in, I'd be surprised. The fact that the representative from the Town of Lake Cowichan said the Mayor was misquoted in the article was a much better response than, "We've never heard of them". They were aware of what the press release said without too much prompting from me. There's obviously communication with the Mayor of Lake Cowichan and CVRD, but the inconsistent details in the press releases make me wonder what's really going on. I don't mind schedules being delayed or unanticipated things popping up that might cause a short term drop is share price, but why issue one press release after another with statements or schedules that turn out to be wrong without clarification? I'd rather hear that the October 1st groundbreaking won't be met because of financing,permitting, political, or environmental constraints than to be left wondering what's going on or if any future press release is going to be incorrect. The one explanation I can think of is from personal experience. When you have a project with multiple tasks contingent upon eachother, the critical path can change with each little hiccup. Financing, permitting (in unfamiliar territory no less), utilities, real estate, construction contracting, source supply contracting, building materials, etc, are all issues they're dealing with. At one time they may have thought an October 1st deadline was feasible, but something came up. Instead of giving a new date each time the schedule changes, they may have learned their lesson and decided not to clarify until they know for sure. They would lose credibility fast if the schedule issued in a press release changed every week each time a problem occurs. No project is ever problem free, so they may being more cautious on the groundbreaking until they know for sure.
Phillip
For the mayor being misquoted, I emailed the Town of Lake Cowichan and they said the pellet plant wasn't within their municipal boundaries, but that of the Cowichan Valley Regional District (CVRD). I responded to that email asking about the Mayor's comment about permits being issued within 30 days which implied the project was within their jurisdiction. Their response was that the Mayor was misquoted. I also looked at the town's community plan that was just approved and there is only one site that is zoned as industrial.
I then emailed the CVRD and asked them about the pellet plant. They confirmed a pellet plant going in and gave me the name of the guy in charge of permitting, but wouldn't tell me anything more unless they knew what my relationship was to the project. I told them I was a shareholder. I didn't get any further response. I then emailed the guy in charge on Thursday asking if permits had been applied for and he said not yet.
Anyway, all of these discussions led me to the conclusion that there is a pellet plant being discussed going into the region, but it isn't within the town limits that the Mayor has authority for, but permits haven't been applied for. The inconsistencies in the story have me concerned, but the bottom line is there is a pellet plant. I'm a Civil Engineer, so if they just acquired the site and hadn't done any site design prior to escrow closing, they still have grading plans to prepare along with design of dry and wet utilities. This can probably explain why permits haven't been applied for, but their schedule sounds a little ambitious. Being from California though, I'm accustomed to a lot more bureaucracy and environmental restrictions that cause delays so the requirements in BC may be much different than those that I deal with. We do have a year round construction season, so design could be done during the winter with construction starting in the spring. Far cry from the October 1st groundbreaking previously mentioned.
Phillip
I still have nagging concerns. I'm not a basher, but there are so many loose ends that haven't been explained. The unlimited authorized shares I'm more comfortable with since at current prices they couldn't raise enough capital even if they issued a gazillion shares. The problems I do have are the unanswered questions:
1) If ground breaking was scheduled for October 1, 2011, what's with the delay?
2) Why announce groundbreaking before you even have the land?
3) What happened with Lower Nicola Indian joint venture?
4) If a joint venture is required to fund construction of the new plants, it sounds like no agreement has been reached yet.
5) If giving up a 30% stake in the plants in exchange for the joint venture, will this effectively reduce margins by 30%?
6) I imagine the construction season is relatively short in BC. Are we looking at March/April before construction starts?
7) Does the contract with LG make allowances for failure to deliver by the appropriated date in 2012?
8) Why was Mayor Ross misquoted about permits being done in a month when the plant site isn't even located within the municipal boundaries of the Town of Lake Cowichan?
There may be logical answers to all of these questions, but not having those answers doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies about my investment.
On the bright side, the one comfort I have is that it appears that all Board members are real people with their own companies. Burns Energy Systems has enough technical detail on their website that it would be hard to believe that someone could fabricate it. They also have their own mailing address.
Phillip
I've just encountered too many of those "stinky pinkies" to rest comfortably. Being burned doesn't make you more trusting. :)
Phillip
Great news would be if they revised the authorized shares from unlimited to those currently outstanding. It wouldn't cost them anything and would bolster support for the stock and company.
Phillip
That was my guess also. Personally, I like the fact that insides hold the majority of the shares. It means that they are more likely to do things that are in the shareholders best interest. If they do hold 60% of outstanding shares, I doubt they would want to dilute their positions, do a reverse split, etc. Long term, it may even dividends or share buybacks.
Phillip
I've been here since Video Movie House and before that when FASC spun off VMHIF. I had FASC for around 10 years, but recently sold it and bought more BMSPF. I still have my concerns about BMSPF and the press releases that never came to fruition, but the hope of retiring early is the only reason people play the lottery, right?
Summary of the November 1 Board Meeting from company website:
-5 shareholders present
-556,566,667 shares are now outstanding (shares diluted from previous)
-Plant 1 to be built in Lake Cowichan BC.
-Plants 2 & 3 to be built in in Northern BC in 2012 & 2013
-Plant 1 to produce white wood pellets initially and coverted to torrefied wood.
-Source fiber is limiting factor
-Financing will occur through a joint venture with the power producers by giving up a 30% stake in the pellet plants (further dilution?) and conventional borrowing.
-Plant 1 product goes to LG
My only question is why are all of the additional shares issued if the joint venture and conventional borrowing will be the financing mechanism. Do the shares represent the 30% or are we looking at 30% in addition to the shares issued.
Phillip
Someone dropped some real money into the stock today. My recollection is October was the scheduled groundbreaking. Maybe a another run in this stock is coming in anticipation of that event.
Phillip
Sorry about the double post. Stinkin' internet connection froze up on me and I reloaded the post and it posted it again.
Phillip
Watching CMF is even better than watching the volume since CMF factors in share price along with volume. Thanks for posting the chart.
Phillip
Watching CMF is even better than watching the volume since CMF factors in share price along with volume. Thanks for posting the chart.
Phillip