Biomass Secure Power Inc. (BMSPF)

[PhillipD]

Metrics for valuating BMSPF

I posted this a while back when there were only a half dozen people chatting on this forum, but since we have new eyes, I thought I'd do it again. Promising to make $1 means nothing if you're spending $2, but this is the article that actually got me excited about this stock's potential. Crunch your own numbers and see for yourself.

This link contains the full article, but I quoted the Metrics section below that gave me the meat and potatos I was looking for.
http://biomassdigest.net/blog/2009/12/31/torrefied-wood-a-bio-energy-option-that-is-ready-to-go-a-biomass-digest-special-report/

Metrics and Costs of Torrefaction of Wood Wastes

Torrefaction plants capable of processing between 1,500 gtpd and 2,000 gtpd day of wood waste or 750 tpd to 1,000 tpd of dry chips are estimated to cost between $10 million and $16 million, depending on the technology used. This compares favorably to the $180 million to $250 million a liquid biofuels refinery would cost that is capable of processing the same amount of wood waste.

Metrics and unit cost estimates being presented in this article were developed from data provided by several torrefaction technology providers. The following are some of the key estimates that had been derived:

The costs of acquiring and harvesting and chipping forest residue and pre-commercial thinnings from softwood timberland acreage in South Carolina are expected to range between $22.50/gt and $26/gt and average ~$24.25/gt.

The added cost to transport, clean and dry these green wood chips is expected to increase their value to ~$55/dt.

Torrefaction of dry chips is expected to results in a 20% loss of weight thereby increasing the cost of wood waste used to ~$69/ short ton (st).

The cost of torrefying woody biomass is expected to add ~$5/st.
The BTU content of TW is estimated to be 11,000/st compared to coal that has ~12,000 BTUs/st.

TW is expected to cost ~$80.27, after adjusting to reflect these BTU differentials.

This cost compares favorably to the ~$100/st price of coal now being delivered to industrial plants in South Carolina.

The prices that can now be obtained for TW exported to coal users in countries in Europe in which a carbon tax is imposed is much higher and it is expected that TW can command an average price of ~$262/mt. Because the cost to deliver TW to EU ports is estimated to be ~$80/st, the resulting delivered cost of TW produced in the US is only ~$148/st. This could result in US TW producers earning an average gross margin of ~43% and a potential Return on Investment of ~39%.