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Unclever, I am not claiming you to be a problem. I am asking you a question.
John
Unclever,
you're an active shareholder. If you had idea for Wave management to raise capital cheaper why did you not say something before they raised money? How do you think they should have raised money? How should they have gotten terms that would have been more to your liking?
John
chowder, I would be shocked if we saw Q2 revenues much greater than $2 million.
John
Unclever,
I see you do not understand my point. What was my point?
You can tell that there has been low news flow. We are reduced to critiquing powerpoints! I don't like the company letter head either and would be more pleased with more eye-catching company colors; perhaps a shade or two darker :)
John
What does the largest Seagate marketing campaign look like? Awareness? A pitch to OEMs? A pitch to tech decision makers?
John
I do not see FDE as being "the" announcement tomorrow, but it will likely be part of a series of announcements enabling small business, IMO. If you look at the Lattitude in the "product" drop down provided by Mundo this morning, the Lattitude "smart security" section states ecrypted hard drives.
John
29tango,
yes.
John
Wash,
I can imagine they didn't since the TCG probably threatens their existence.
John
Alea, I do not know why any prudent individual would conclude that Wave failed to sell ETS, even though they have not sold it. I think it is based on our own limited capabilities as humans – we learn from experience; what happened before will keep happening. ETS becomes an easier sell every day. More TPMs and more ways to leverage TPMs. Most people were not aware of TPMs and selling is always more difficult when the individuals you are selling to have not even heard of your product category. I always thought it would be a hard sell at first. The only reason I concluded otherwise was based on management guidance.
At this point, you do not need management opinion to see this market is developing rapidly and in Wave’s favor. This will at some point be accompanied by real revenue. There has not been a better time to be a Wavoid in my opinion based on probability of being a real business. Human behavior is difficult to predict. People understand numbers and facts more than “the story”. The story involves thinking. Wave investors have generally proven that as a whole, we have been terrible at understanding the true value of the franchise. I believe we carried a much greater market cap over 5 years ago. That should tell everyone something.
This is my first post in your neighborhood. I was just passing by…
John
RSA and network tokens,
Does anyone else use an RSA token for your brokerage account? I use one at my brokerage. I believe the average cost per user (hardware, software and support) of a token in year one is around $100. There seem to be user benefits, network administrator benefits, and cost benefits when using a TPM in place of a RSA token. I do not see how TPMs will not get used in this regard in the not too distant future.
John
On the 15$ mm, an unnoted benefit of the 15$ mm is the fact that management does not need us for over a year. I will bet that management guidance will become more accurate. In fact, I bet we enter into a phase of under promise and over deliver.
Orda, there are many pilots across the software industry that lead to no business. However, a pilot will likely always preceed a sale.
John
Moneybilder, gotcha. What is your opinion on the future?
John
Moneybilder,
what is YOUR opinion and if it was divergent than Snackmans 6-9 months ago, why didn't you sell at that point? The shareprice is not the only thing that matters (if you recall it was at 50 at one point), unless you are planning on selling today.
John
I would not worry too much about price. Wavoids have obviously not been good at judging price, lol. In other words, nothing bad is up, imo.
John
Ispro, nice thoughts. 5-10 mm tpm equipped machines are shipping per month. These do not simply generate 5-10 mm future opportunities; they make the previously shipped tpms a more likely upgrade. The pc industry is not dumb. It is not including a useless component. Opportunities will continue to increase. I see momentum building and smart money taking out their calculators when Wave closes a couple of reasonably sized upgrades. IMO share appreciation will be fast and furious.
At the same time, I do not worry if a few enterprise sales occur next month, later this year, or early next year to be quite honest. I will worry when I see someone trump Wave's leading role in this space or when TPMs stop shipping. Until things engage, I want to see Wave continue to partner with companies like Microsoft and Seagate, enhancing their leadership role and putting further distance between a new entry. There are many seeds being planted in this space and I think people are missing it. The number of trusted endpoints is rapidly growing. I believe the TPM will be at the epicenter of security in the not too distant future, helping to protect data at all times, helping to protect the network, and helping to protect identity. I am more optimistic than I have ever been. My current thought process is unaffected by price or posts.
To me this opportunity has grown tremendously both in likelihood and in size. It has come at the expense of time, because it is an industry solution. It takes a ton to move an industry. However, an industry by definition is grand and the opportunities will also be grand.
It is funny that some people were more optimistic before a single TPM had shipped. Between then and now a WHOLE industry has gotten behind this movement and Wave still remains quite literally at the heart of it. From my experience in business, I have often learned that sometimes you need to take a step back. Often, when you are too close to something, it is difficult to have good perspective.
John
mbarr, based on your math, you are missing a zero or if you are taking 15% times your 30 mm, it would be $135 mm.
John
Maystep, it was written in 2005.
hnstabe,
Why the slow growth in 08? I had bundling revenue growth slowing and upgrade revenue growth increasing and revenue increasing by 4X over 07. There will be a point when the upgrade spicket turns on, but we have not seen hard evidence of that yet. I think as we get evidence of reasonable growth, share price will explode. It is overwhelming to think about all of the revenue potential with 100's of mm of trusted endpoints -- the market will do the math on that when upgrades engage. Also, as I stated, without specific guidance from HQ or established revenue, rev. estimates are pretty difficult. I imagine it will get much easier.
John
Tiny, see link:
http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/2701/waverevenuebs2.jpg
My expectations are based on limited upgrades this year, and bundling based on Wave's presentations. For the most part these data points are principally based on instinct and as we get more data points, I will revise accordingly. Ultimately, if we experience the ramp I am communicating, I tend to believe share price will react quicker than I illustrate especially as we demonstrate upgrade potential. I do not contend with the fact that we have the potential to see reasonable upgrades from hardware based FDE this year -- if we do, everything shifts to the left. My revenue expectations are a couple of quartes out than my previous expectations and that is based on Wave's guidance changing.
I believe that actual revenue will be more volatile early (not illustrated), but this generally communicates what I am thinking. Like I have said, I have previously participated in FP&A work in my past for a multi billion dollar company. It is difficult work with proven, repeatable revenue streams and much more than an art than science when revenue is in an embryonic state and you are an outsider. FYI, I would be ecstatic with this for a growth path and beside myself if we beat it.
John
Eamon, cash in the bank is always positive as opposed to the alternative. I think that a lot of people on this board are so tired, that they do not know what they believe. Follow the industry. The TPM opportunity is growing. It will produce revenues. I have put together my new expectations for revenues and share price and would love to post the image, but I will have to figure out how to do it.
Forging a relationship w/MSFT for NAC will enable the third phase of revenue growth. We are just at the beginning phase of TPM proliferation. I am more encouraged than discouraged by the fact that we finally raised money that will take us to break even. I honestly ignore the stock price right now and keep my eye on the opportunities and take cues from the industry.
I have been thinking about Wave's prospects in the few moments I get uninterrupted thought and I believe this opportunity is bigger and better than ever before. The size of the TPM network is growing by leaps and bounds every quarter and soon there will be 100s of mm of trusted endpoints waiting to be enabled for various security purposes.
I also laugh at all the posters who have all the answers. I have banned complaining in my workplace based on the fact that it is wasted energy. If you have a better idea, put your energy in enabling that idea. It seems all the best coaches are on the couch, the best politicians are reporting the news instead of creating it, and the best CEOs are in the message boards.
Who can post an image?
I have not posted in a while, because I have not had a lot to say, but the Wave story appears more compelling every day. Based on Wave's bundling projections, I would guess $1.8 mm in bundling revenue in the second quarter. The upgrade sell becomes easier with every additional TPM shipped and every service enhanced by a TPM.
I tend to look at this as investment in terms of increasing likelihood of success or decreasing likelihood of success. It has been a steady increase of likelihood over the last couple of years and I think there are a couple of things happening that dramatically increase the likelihood of success.
John
Unclevername,
I did not mean to be critical of your thinking. I have kept employees through periods of no bonuses and salary freezes, but creative license only lasts a year or two before dollars call and less for people who make it their sole pursuit.
In regard to Wave's proposed option program, I have refrained from commenting on the specifics, but have stated that I will vote yes. I respect all opinions and think it is great that people are having a healthy debate. Opinions should be heard and respected. At minimum, Wave managment will have a strong sense of awareness of what a large set of their loyal shareholders are thinking. That should not go unnoticed.
John
Howardjoel,
how much does he make?
John
Unclevername,
from your post, "talent is not bought by money".
What? Of course it is. That's why Alex Rodriguez makes more money than Doug Mientkiewicz. It's the way the world works. Better talent typcally requires more money because it can. Have you never lost an employee who took another job because it was a similiar job and it paid more?
Ideally that would perhaps not be the case. But the last I checked, most people went to work because they had to go to work because of money or a perceived need for more of it.
John
A lot of funny posts on this board lately. You are a follower or being fooled if you vote yes and shooting yourself in the foot and a hater if you vote no. There are some pretty sensationalist takes on the views of other people. It's a wee bit irritating. There is no right or wrong on the issue; it exists in the minds of extremists, which is a not so flattering a view, aimho.
John
How about a new survey. A representative from this board for the BOD directors. There are enough shares and influence to make something happen.
John
For those of you concerned with abuse of options, has there been any abuse of options the last several years? Thanks in advance.
John
FWIW,
I will be voting yes.
John
BSpencer,
you lost nothing in the reverse split. Nothing. The value of the shares you had before and after the split were the same.
John
Rachelelise,
I imagine more information will be forthcoming. I have no opinion until I know all of the facts.
John
TV Tonic --
Does anyone else find it peculiar that you do not have better control of the content that is delivered? While the user selects the channels, the timing of when content is updated seems a bit random. I would think there would be a better way to control what gets delivered, replaced, and added.
John
FYI, I just received the following e-mail from Wave(nice marketing touch, "Are you putting your Trusted Plaform Modules to Work?":
http://www.wave.com/news/events/RSA/DMP/
If you have trouble viewing this e-mail, click here to view it in a browser.
See hands-on demonstrations for data protection, network security and strong authentication Feb. 5-9 at the Moscone Center, San Francisco.
While you’re at RSA, don’t miss these exciting chances to learn what Trusted Computing can do for your organization. Be sure to attend:
Demonstrations
Wave's Booth (2113)
Trusted Computing Group's Booth (2643)
“Trusted Computing in Action: A Workshop to Secure the Enterprise,” Feb. 5 from 12 p.m.-4 p.m. Wave will be hosting a hands on lab at this workshop. The workshop is part of the RSA 2007 pre-conference program Gold Room 301. Click here to register!
“Trusted Computing—Not So Futuristic Anymore” presented by Brian Berger, Executive Vice President, Wave Systems and Trusted Computing Group Director. Fri., Feb. 9 11:10 a.m., Gold Room 302.
Brian Berger will also speak on the panel discussion “Emerging Solutions in Enterprise IAM: The Amazing NAC Race,” moderated by Michael F. Angelo, Senior Architect Net IQ Corporation. Tues., Feb. 6 1:30 p.m., Gold Room 302.
“Ask the Experts” cocktail reception, hosted by the Trusted Computing Group at the LJ Martini Bar Lounge in the Metreon on Feb. 6 from 6 to 7:30 p.m. Hors d’oeuvres and drinks will be provided. Wave representatives will be on hand to answer questions.
Click here for your complimentary RSA expo pass, a $100 value.
For more information on Wave and Trusted Computing, visit www.wave.com and www.trustedcomputinggroup.org
© 2007 by Wave Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
What am I missing here...this was published in July?
John
Sheldon...Wow!!!
Could Microsoft be the first large enterprise to use KTM? How are they going to manage the TPM keys?
Form your incredible find:
Systems will use BitLocker encryption with a TPM or USB startup key, depending on hardware capability. This configuration will be used to control data exposure and manage asset retirement.
Corporate laptop
New systems will use TPM and a PIN for all computers. Non-TPM computers will use startup keys on USB drives, but all new computers will be purchased with TPM devices. This configuration will be used to control data exposure and manage asset retirement.
Awesome find!
John
Gokite, I am sensing a condescending tone to your reply. See Ramsey's post following your post. I agree with him. Bitlocker is competitive with Seagate. Wave provides centralized key management for both FDE solutions Seagate and Bitlocker.
John
Ramsey, exactly.
So how is BitLocker competitive with Wave?
John
Gokite, how do you do centralized key managment with Bitlocker?
John