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Chipguy,
Wow, you are really going out on a limb there considering
that it was in beta testing last summer.
i think there was a beta of Windows XP for Itanium too...
The server version of Longhorn/Vista is somewhere between 1 year and 2 years away. In that time, a lot can happen.
I have tried, for years now, to explain to wbmw that the various commitment PR releases for Itanium are worth about as much as toilet paper. In due time, you will realize that as well.
In the meantime, Itanium remains to be a strategic product - for AMD. It keeps draining Intel's resources, it confuses Intel's message, and one embarrassment after another from Itanium CPUs continues to damage Intel's reputation.
Joe
mmoy,
Does Vista run on Itanium?
Microsoft cancelled all desktop development for Itanium:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/01/05/ms_cancels_itanicxp/
starting with Windows XP. There will not be Vista for Itanium.
There will be at some point a server derivative of Vista that may or may not run on Itanium, but I think the server version is a little down the road from desktop.
It would not surprise me if the server version of Vista for Itanium never sees the light of day...
Joe
Keith,
The quote for this thread picks up Yahoo stock, rather than AMD.
Joe
Keith,
It is obvious that three out of the four variants must be wrong. I´m wondering who made up the rest, and why.
I don't see the base (reference) clock changing from 200 (and obsoleting the entire HT infrastructure), so everything that is not an even multiplier of 200 is most likely wrong.
Well, unless there is some new mechanism to derive CPU clock speed...
What´s your strategy for the Q4 earnings day, will you sell before it, hold, what´s your plan?
As a new eTrade customer for the 2nd day (my old broker was bought by them), I don't even have access to my account yet. But on the bright side, if I did have access, I would be able to make trades very cheaply, with low commissions.
As far as strategy, I will either do nothing, or sell some Jan 35 calls.
Joe
Keith,
it´s interesting that three different rumours for the FX-62 clock speed are floating around:
1) 2.6Ghz
2) 2.67Ghz
3) 2.8Ghz
I am betting on 2.8 GHz
Joe
Interesting graph on performance per Watt:
http://www.lostcircuits.com/cpu/amd_fx60/7.shtml
(bottom of the page)
Joe
Keith,
another possibility would be basically sticking with today´s clock speeds while the model numbers move up a notch due to increased IPC of the new platform.
I thought about that, but SC model numbers are unchanged...
Joe
HailMary,
If AMD loses the performance lead badly in desktop and mobile, don't you think that is going to hurt the stock?
It greatly depends greatly on the power of coercion Intel can wield in the future. Without it, the ASPs should be roughly the same, meaning AMD revenue should be 50% higher, with constant expenses.
Joe
Anand's AMD roadmap from November calls for FX-62 in Q2 and 5000 in Q2 as well.
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2587
Assuming AMD actually does this, it would mean that AMD gets one across the board speed bin increase at the launch of F Stepping.
FX-62 should be DC, 2.8 GHz. 5000 should be 2.6 GHz, DC, 2x512K L2 (suitable for volume production).
Joe
chipguy,
As long as the average price of an Opteron server stays about the same or less as the list price of a mid bin IPF processor then there will always be a "safe" place for Opteron. :-P
Is this the Itanium mid-range? CAUTION HOT SURFACE
http://cgi.ebay.com/New-Intel-Itanium-2-1-4GHz-4MB-SL6XE_W0QQitemZ6831466956QQcategoryZ3674QQssPageN...
It may be a bit below the list price. This Itanium seems to be selling at 90% discount.
The seller is selling new OEM parts from Dell. I wonder how much Dell paid for these...
Joe
chipdesigner,
Also, the platform is unlikely to be capable of running HD video through hardware decoding. For example, ATI is expected to have such a feature available for mobile platforms through its RS600 chip sometime in 2006, while Intel apparently will not support hardware HD video decoding until 2008, sources indicated.
Who needs HD until 2008? Are there any titles that have been released yet? Do you think movie studios will stop releasing their movies on standard DVD? There is absolutely no need for HD, until Intel has it.
wbmw
chipguy,
Back to the future? Perhaps we are looking at AMD's only
available response to NGA until Kxx
Lemme see... Is Pentium 920 9% faster than 840?
Joe
wbmw,
It's becoming a good time to buy puts.
You said something like that when the stock was at ~ $24, prior to 50% rise. I guess your strategy is to preach sell, short, buy puts non-stop, and as a broken clock, you may turn out to be right one day...
Joe
wbmw,
I would disagree. They had a pretty convincing lead in August, 2002 with the surprise launch of the 2.8GHz Northwood, which used the 800MT/s FSB and DDR-400.
Yes. That was the time when all AMD had was T-bred A, and T-bred B was not shipping yet. Intel did have a convincing lead at that time. But, BTW, the bus speed was 533 MHz, not 800 MHz. That came in Spring 2003.
Those were the dark days for AMD, but also, the beginning of the turnaround, which began with Thoroughbred B, Barton and K8.
Speaking of August 2002, I just got a statement in the mail showing cost basis of my stocks, and most of my shares I currently own were bought exactly that month.
The 3.06GHz Northwood launched in November, and widened the lead considerably. Even after AMD caught up with model numbers, they still fell far behind in benchmarks
Yes, in general, yes, but Relative difference in performance shrunk compared to August 2002, since AMD also upped FSB to 333, 400, increased clock speeds somewhat, doubled the cache, nVidia launched very competitive chipset.
800 MHz P4 bus was a setback for AMD, and great step forward for Intel. But even though this 800 MHz P4 bus gained in benchmarks, most of the sales where with DDR-333, and at that level, AMD was reasonably competitive, CPU division became profitable with these Bartons, even prior to desktop K8 could have any impact (very end of Q3 2003).
Joe
chipguy,
I didn't realize AMD had enough R&D resources to waste on
science fair projects.
Interesting, coming from the supporter of the ultimate science fair project...
BTW, QC and higher x86-64 is the future of server market. It is unstoppable.
(you heard it here first)
Joe
Keith,
Hard to believe that top 2 notebook models are Turion based. I think Turion is starting to exceed my (previously low) expectations.
Joe
it is gone
Joe
rlweitz,
Intel would have to field a clearly inferior processor lineup for an extended period of time for Dell to jump ship.
The weird thing is that Intel has had an extended period of inferior products. Dell has not jumped ship throughout this period, so why should Dell jump when Intel is supposed to get more competitive?
Joe
wbmw,
It's a good indicator that AMD is pushing their 90nm process to the limit, while Intel is just starting their 65nm ramp.
Intel's 65nm process has not reached the performance of AMD's 130nm K8 at 2.4 GHz.
They tried doing this once before with Palomino at 180nm. It was an incredible run they had at that process, but then their 130nm Thoroughbred parts showed barely any improvement, even months down the road.
How many months? About 4 to 5 months after Thoroughbred A that did not scale (clockspeed wise, AMD launched Thoroughbred that did scale (Thoroughbred B), and Barton.
Intel only pulled away convincingly in Spring of 2003, when 800 MHz FSB + 2xDDR-400 was launched. The huge lead lasted only until September of 2003, when desktop K8 was launched.
It's what happens when you eat your future by introducing process improvements all at once.
LOL. I thought only Elmer used this moronic line, and the funny thing is that unlike you, he was not serious. Just having some fun with FUD.
Joe
So the order of things for now is
1. chip released for PR / testing to web sites
2. official announcement sometime later
3. partner announcement sometimes later
4. shipment at some future date
Just trying to keep track.
Curiously
cj,
Tiger is already 64 bit clean for the G5.
Well, you have to re-install the OS...
It isn't exactly a drop in upgrade. I doubt that it will be advertised that way, even by Apple (which is not the most credible company to begin with).
Somehow, I imagine the Apple customers as the least likely to open the case, mess with the thermal compound and reinstall the OS...
Joe
Wouldn't that affect the warranty?
That, and also another minor detail: the OS
Joe
chipguy,
A welfare project is a supercomputer whose development is
funded with taxpayer money because the commercial sector
would otherwise have no reason to go there.
Thanks for the explanation du jour as to why this Itanium project is NOT a welfare project.
Joe
chipguy,
What's the point of running a high RAS OS on low RAS hardware?
Think "A" in RAS. With the other architectures falling like flies, it is a bit of a stretch to argue that anything other than x86 will be "available" when the hardware needs to be upgraded or replaced.
Choice of non x86-64 today is a leap of faith.
Joe
chipguy,
there was a day when you looked down on those "welfare" projects. Is welfare all Itanium has these days?
Joe
Bobs,
In 2000, flash was printing money, CPUs were moderately profitable. Now CPU division is making all the money.
Joe
wbmw,
Reminds me of the 1.73GHz Palomino. Impressive scores vs. the dead end Willamette, but the last ditch effort right before things started to turn.
Besides the fact that you always see and imminent turnaround for the better (for Intel) and for the worse (for AMD), can you further explain what logic you are basing that statement on?
Or is it just another reiteration of "Vee vill berry you"?
Joe
Keith,
FX-60 system @ BestBuy
Very impressive.
Joe
price list update:
http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/VirtualPressRoom/0,,51_104_609,00.html
(includes updates to FX and new Turion chips)
SmallPops,
Keith when do you suppose Fab 36 could help alleviate this problem?
I hope that F Stepping (from either Fab 30 and Fab 36) will allow MT processors in higher volume.
Joe
Here is xbit labs described as:
Following in Intel’s footsteps, AMD transfers its CPUs for extreme gamers, the Athlon 64 FX, to dual-core architecture. The new processor we will look at today is based on the new Toledo core overclocked to 2.6GHz. Will this innovation be enough to respond to Intel’s Pentium Extreme Edition 955? Let’s find out now!
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/cpu/display/athlon64-fx60.html
WTF? Overclocked? Respondinding to an unreleased processor?
Keith,
Nevermind, I was wrong.
Joe
Doug,
That's F Stepping...
Joe
Keith,
Your earlier link was Gateway brand. This one is E-Machines. Glad to see both using Athlon 64. BTW, why isn't the model linked called 3500? It likely has 2 channels. Also, why HT 1600? I assume it is 2x800. Why not 2x1000, which is now the standard on S939?
Joe
wbmw,
You do realize that JFTC called off their investigation when Intel complied with their requests, don't you?
Interesting characterization of pleading no contest to the charges. I certainly would not mind if similarly Intel "complied with requests" AMD made in its case.
It tells me that JFTC's requests were minor and the findings were not a big deal: hardly anything incriminating enough to be used in a U.S. lawsuit against Intel.
Like you would ever admit that Intel committed an illegal act, even if it happened in front of your own eyes...
Joe
rlweitz,
you're not taking investment advice from wbmw now are you? ;^)
No, I am just trying to point out the divergence between what wbmw posts and what he does.
BTW, I may take a bit off the table at some point, like 1/5 to 1/3, and then, to get my initial investment back, and then I will just play with house's money. But so far, I have been a bit greedy to do so.
Joe
gollem,
That's cool. BTW, the 8 GB would assume 2 GB DIMMs, each of which is probably as much as the whole PC (~ $600).
Joe
s2o,
Just for reference, how did XP perform vs Win98 when it first came out?
I think the answer to that question greatly depends on the amount of memory installed in the system. At some 256 MB and 512 MB you would not notice much of a difference. But at 64MB and 128MB, you would notice a significant difference.
Joe
gollem,
Which SFF did you get?
Joe